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the latest Bitfinex Alpha report indicates that as May began, BTC successfully navigated through the dense sell-off zone between $78,000 and $79,000, briefly approaching $83,000. This rally is primarily driven by spot demand, rather than leveraged funds. Since May 8, the spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has risen significantly, showing that buyers are continuously taking the initiative to absorb market supply. ETF inflows and public market accumulation are the main drivers, while long-term holders have now accumulated close to 4 million BTC, the largest increase since the pandemic crash in 2020, suggesting that circulating market supply is being further locked up. The market currently estimates the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June at approximately 94%. Against the backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, institutional capital continues to deploy into the crypto market.
CoinShares data shows crypto funds saw net inflows of $858 million last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of inflows and the largest single-week inflow since the end of April. Among them, Bitcoin funds attracted over $700 million in a single week, with year-to-date inflows reaching $4.9 billion, indicating sustained growth in institutional investor demand for the crypto market.Market analysis suggests that positive expectations related to the "Clarity Act" have driven an improvement in institutional sentiment. Currently, BTC prices remain above the $80,000 mark, with the market watching for a potential breakout of the 200-day moving average near $82,000. Marex analysts point out that if Bitcoin manages a daily close above $82,000 accompanied by stable spot buying, it could initiate a new upward trend.In the altcoin space, SUI rose 12% in 24 hours to $1.26. Mysten Labs co-founder Adeniyi Abiodun revealed that Sui plans to launch confidential transaction features this year to support fee-free private payments. Additionally, Nasdaq-listed Sui Group Holdings (SUIG) previously announced that it has staked most of its reserve SUI, effectively reducing the circulating market supply by approximately 2.7%. (CoinDesk)
According to QCP analysis, this week features a dense schedule of macroeconomic events, with market attention focused on three key themes: First, President Trump and President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Beijing this week, with discussions expected to cover tariffs, the rare-earth supply chain, and the Middle East situation; markets are watching closely to see whether substantive progress can be achieved on trade. Second, April’s CPI, PPI, and retail sales data will be released sequentially; if inflation stabilizes, real yields may decline—historically providing support for the crypto market—whereas the opposite would reinforce expectations of monetary tightening. Third, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold hearings on the CLARITY Act; legislative progress could further catalyze institutional capital inflows. Currently, despite ETF outflows last week, BTC has held the $80,000 level, while crypto volatility remains near its lowest point of the year, with the VIX at approximately 18. In the short term, BTC is highly likely to remain range-bound, with $84,000 serving as a key resistance level.
According to 10x Research analysis, Bitcoin’s total gamma exposure has remained negative since mid-January and currently stands at -$3.2 billion at the $82,000 strike price. In a negative gamma environment, market makers are forced to trade in the direction of price movement—buying aggressively on rallies and selling aggressively on declines—thereby amplifying price volatility. As options expire en masse on May 29 and June 26, the negative gamma drag is expected to gradually dissipate, easing Bitcoin’s downward bias. Currently, demand for call options has clearly outstripped that for put options, and institutions anticipate market sentiment will shift from bearish to bullish around those expiration dates.
According to CoinShares data, digital asset investment products saw net inflows of $857.9 million last week—the sixth consecutive week of net inflows and the largest single-week inflow since April 24. Total assets under management rose to $160 billion. By asset: Bitcoin saw inflows of $706.1 million; Ethereum, $77.1 million; Solana, $47.6 million; and XRP, $39.6 million. Short-Bitcoin products experienced outflows of $14.4 million, while multi-asset products saw outflows of $5.5 million. By region: the U.S. recorded inflows of $776.6 million; Germany, $50.6 million; Switzerland, $21.1 million; and the Netherlands, $5 million.
According to on-chain analyst PeckShield (@PeckShieldAlert), the TrustedVolumes attacker has laundered approximately $278,000 of stolen funds to date, including depositing 10.2 ETH (approx. $23,600) into Tornado Cash and swapping 110 ETH (approx. $250,000) for BTC via THORChain. Additionally, the attacker attempted to deposit 0.5 ETH into Railgun but subsequently withdrew it. TrustedVolumes was attacked on May 7, resulting in losses of approximately $6.7 million.
According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), Garrett Jin (#BitcoinOG1011short) has deposited his remaining 225,627 ETH (approximately $528.19 million) into Binance. This brings his total ETH deposits into Binance over the past four days to 577,896 ETH, valued at roughly $1.35 billion. Data shows that most of this ETH was acquired eight months ago via BTC conversions, when ETH was trading at approximately $4,591; based on current prices, his unrealized loss stands at roughly $1.3 billion.
Odaily reports, according to SoSoValue data, Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT) has not recorded any single-day net outflows in its first trading month since its listing on April 8. As of May 7, the fund's cumulative net inflow reached $193.6 million, with a net asset value of $239.6 million. Against the backdrop of volatile swings in the overall spot Bitcoin ETF market, which has seen several instances of hundreds of millions in net outflows, the fund has maintained 17 consecutive trading days of positive or zero net inflows.Currently, the fund's management fee is 0.14%, the lowest among US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Morgan Stanley's Head of Digital Assets, Amy Oldenburg, stated that initial capital primarily came from client-initiated subscriptions, as the advisor channel has yet to fully open.
according to Lookonchain monitoring, a Bitcoin OG (1KAA8G) transferred 500 BTC, worth $40.62 million, four hours ago. This transfer was executed after the address had been inactive for over 12 years. When it received the aforementioned BTC 12 years ago, the BTC price was approximately $914. The address currently has an unrealized profit of $40.17 million, with a return of 88 times.
Odaily News Over the past year, the ETH/BTC trading pair has cumulatively fallen by more than 35%, with the market structure continuously weakening, raising concerns about further downside risks. Analysts point out that the ETH/BTC trend remains suppressed by a multi-year descending trendline, a structure that has repeatedly capped rebounds since 2022 and was accompanied by a nearly 70% correction during the 2024–2025 market cycle.Currently, after attempting a rebound in August 2025 to the confluence zone of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-month moving average, ETH/BTC was rejected and has subsequently broken below support at the 20-month moving average, indicating sustained selling pressure dominance. Technical models suggest that if this weakness persists, the next key support level could be around 0.0176 BTC, representing approximately 40% downside from current levels and approaching the cycle low area of 2020.On-chain data shows that ETH reserves on Binance have continued to rise, reaching approximately 3.62 million coins as of May, accounting for about 24.6% of the total exchange holdings across the network, signaling increased potential selling pressure. In contrast, Bitcoin exchange reserves have continued to decline, reflecting tightening BTC liquidity and stronger holding sentiment.The analysis suggests that this divergence in data reinforces ETH's relatively weaker market structure. Meanwhile, at the narrative level, the "ultra-sound money" narrative surrounding Ethereum has cooled off, while Bitcoin continues to benefit from institutional allocation and corporate treasury demand, placing ETH under pressure from both capital flows and market narrative. (Cointelegraph)
: Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that although Bitcoin rebounded after falling from around $125,000 to $60,000, the current trend remains a "repair after decline" and has not yet been confirmed as entering a new bull market cycle.He pointed out that from an on-chain data perspective, multiple key indicators have not yet entered the historical bear market bottom range. This includes the "Supply in Loss" and 90-day UTXO-related metrics, which have not yet shown a sufficient cyclical bottom structure. Meanwhile, the "LTH Realized Supply" has also not displayed the typical accumulation pattern seen at the end of a bear market, indicating that the market has not yet entered a deep reallocation phase.Additionally, spot selling pressure indicators have not shown obvious "capitulation selling", suggesting that a typical comprehensive market cleansing has not occurred during this decline. Axel Adler Jr believes that before improvements are seen simultaneously in on-chain structure, spot demand, and supply pressure, the current upward move is more likely a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, he pointed out that the global risk environment remains tight. The conflict between the US and Iran has pushed Brent crude oil close to $100 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressure. Consumer confidence and financial health indices are weakening, indicating pressure on the demand side. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain high, with real interest rates and inflation expectations rising concurrently, further suppressing risk asset valuations.He also mentioned that the leadership of the US Federal Reserve is about to enter a potential transition phase, but the interest rate market is no longer pricing in rapid rate cuts and has even begun to price in the probability of rate hikes. Market expectations have clearly shifted towards "higher for longer". In an environment of high oil prices, high interest rates, and uncertain monetary policy, overall financial conditions remain tight.Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market needs to wait for clearer on-chain bottom structures and signs of demand-side recovery. Until then, he maintains a cautious stance on the market outlook.
According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), a whale address swapped 40 BTC (approximately $3.23 million) for 1,384.6 ETH via THORChain, then transferred the funds into Tornado Cash for coin mixing.
Bitcoin held above the $80,000 mark over the weekend, with no further significant decline in the market for now. However, market analysts believe that the short-term correction is not yet over. Cryptic Trades stated that current low-timeframe charts indicate that after encountering resistance near a high-timeframe resistance level, BTC is more likely to retest the "Bull Market Support Band" in the short term, which consists of two key moving averages located below $80,000. As long as BTC can hold this support band and the high-timeframe support zone around $75,000, the subsequent trend still leans towards an upward move.Additionally, some market analysis points out that Bitcoin's previous breakout above the bull market support band was "not clear-cut," and the market needs to consolidate firmly above the lower $80,000 region for one to two weeks to confirm a strengthening trend. (Cointelegraph)
according to analyst Murphy's post on X, data shows that retail addresses holding less than 1 BTC have accumulated a net total of 23,074 BTC over the past 30 days. This accumulation occurred in three distinct phases, notably when Bitcoin was around $66,000, $70,000, and $80,000.At the same time, whale addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC began large-scale accumulation starting from the $66,000 level, with their 30-day balance peaking at an increase of 140,699 BTC. This marks the largest net growth in nearly two years, exhibiting clear signs of position building.Analysis suggests that the investors still actively participating in Bitcoin trading within the current market have mostly experienced multiple market cycles. The significant inflow of whale capital also indicates that the market is moving in the direction of least resistance.
according to Onchain Lens monitoring, whale Loracle.hl has closed its TON, BTC, and CL positions, realizing a profit of approximately $3.9 million. Meanwhile, the address also closed out about 96% of its ZEC long position.Additionally, Loracle.hl has increased its short position on HYPE to 1,239,834 HYPE, with a position value of approximately $53.23 million and a leverage of 5x. The current cumulative profit is approaching $37 million.
According to on-chain analyst Yujin’s monitoring, the whale who lost $230 million due to long-position liquidations on Hyperliquid in February has transferred 108,000 ETH (approximately $250 million) to Binance in the past half hour. Within the last three days, this address has cumulatively transferred 352,000 ETH (approximately $823 million) to Binance. The whale’s on-chain address currently still holds 11,500 BTC (approximately $930 million) and 225,000 ETH (approximately $520 million).
Crypto trader Eugene posted on his personal channel that, as Bitcoin hovers near $80,000, multiple market charts are already showing “bottoming-out” signals. He expects the real rally to begin within the next week or so, potentially propelling numerous altcoins to break out of their current consolidation ranges. Judging by overall trading volume and open interest (OI) levels, most tokens currently require only modest marginal buying pressure to drive price increases—indicating the market remains broadly “under-allocated.” He believes the key catalyst lies in whether BTC can convincingly break above the $80,000 level and trigger new upward trends across major tokens such as ETH, SOL, and HYPE. Eugene also expressed hope that the market won’t encounter strong resistance leading to a pullback at this level.
According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $145.6 million, with Fidelity’s $FBTC seeing an outflow of $97.6 million, BlackRock’s $IBIT an outflow of $27.22 million, and Ark’s $ARKB an outflow of $26.56 million; only Morgan Stanley’s $MSBT registered a net inflow of $5.74 million.
According to The Block, Julio Moreno, Research Director at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, released a report on May 8 stating that Bitcoin has surged over 20% since early April, reaching a three-month high. However, the firm characterizes this rally as a “bear market bounce” and warns that profit-taking pressure may intensify further. On the data front, Bitcoin holders’ daily realized profit reached 14,600 BTC on May 4—the highest level since December 10, 2025. Meanwhile, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has remained consistently above 1.00 since mid-April, indicating the market has entered a sustained profit-taking phase. On a 30-day rolling basis, holders’ net realized profit turned positive at +20,000 BTC—the first time since December 22, 2025—after net losses plunged as deep as -398,000 BTC between February and March. Nonetheless, Moreno notes that the current net profit level of +20,000 BTC remains far below the historical 130,000–200,000 BTC threshold typically required to confirm a bull market transition, reinforcing the view that this is a “bear market bounce” rather than a structural trend reversal. Additionally, the current unrealized profit ratio stands at approximately 18%; historical experience shows that when this indicator rises to elevated levels, holders tend to sell to lock in gains, increasing correction risk.
on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant stated that with the recent price increase, profit-taking activity in the Bitcoin market could increase further.Data shows that Bitcoin has risen over 20% since the beginning of April, but the firm still defines this market movement as a "bear market rally." Currently, the short-term holder profitability indicator has remained above 1, suggesting that the market has been in a phase of continuous profit-taking since mid-April.The analysis suggests that although selling pressure is rising, a price correction may still take time to materialize.