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Serenity is a DeDaSP (Decentralized Data Survivability Protocol), a protocol to secure and preserve data in an on-chain framework for decentralized systems using biometric authentication, NFT-based recursive succession, and smart contracts to ensure seamless, long-term ownership transfer.
Serenity: Tech Giants' 2026 CapEx May Exceed Expectations; Bottleneck Assets Like Memory Chips Poised for Valuation Reshaping
"White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity has summarized the capital expenditure guidance from the latest earnings reports of Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft, stating that the four major tech giants are expected to allocate a combined capital expenditure of approximately $720 billion to $745 billion in 2026, exceeding the market's previous expectation of $695 billion to $725 billion. The market has recently experienced significant deleveraging, as well as position liquidations among retail and institutional investors due to margin pressures. While short-term adjustments may persist, it is difficult to maintain a bearish stance on upstream semiconductor companies and next-generation cloud computing infrastructure in the medium to long term.Serenity also proposed the "bottleneck investment" thesis, arguing that when trillions of dollars in capital flow into supply chain segments previously viewed as low-value commodities—such as memory chips and even enterprises in the energy infrastructure sector—these companies may undergo a valuation reshaping. Many currently popular AI supply chain companies were previously overlooked by the market during the telecommunications cycle. However, as AI infrastructure construction enters an acceleration phase and capital expenditure flows into their balance sheets, these enterprises may experience a repricing.
Serenity: Micron Signs Long-Term Memory Supply Agreement with Qualcomm; AI Storage Stock Decline May Be More Due to Deleveraging Pressure
"White-Haired Stock God" Serenity stated that today, Micron ($MU) announced the signing of a long-term memory supply agreement with Qualcomm ($QCOM). However, the market reaction was somewhat unexpected, with Micron's stock price subsequently falling by 5.37%.Serenity believes that against the backdrop of the AI industry chain continuously signing long-term supply agreements to lock in future demand, current memory and AI-related stocks themselves have not shown any significant signs of fundamental deterioration.He noted that the recent sector adjustment is more likely due to a chain reaction triggered by market deleveraging and margin pressure, rather than a reversal in AI demand or storage industry trends.Serenity pointed out that as AI infrastructure construction continues to advance, companies across the industry chain are strengthening supply security through long-term agreements. Short-term market volatility may more reflect adjustments in capital flows and valuations, rather than a shift in the long-term growth logic.
Serenity: Small Wafer Allocation Could Support Hundreds of Millions in Gross Profit; CPO Volume Expansion May Further Unlock Growth Potential
"White Hair Stock God" Serenity published an analysis stating that if Sivers obtains approximately 10% of wafer capacity allocation from foundry Win Semi through an asset-light model, under the assumptions of 65% yield and an ASP of $50 to $75, the annual revenue from its optical array products could reach $341 million to $512 million. Based on management’s gross margin target of 50% to 60%+, the corresponding annual gross profit would be approximately $205 million to $307 million.At Sivers' current market cap of around $1.1 billion, the market cap-to-gross profit multiple in this scenario would be only about 3.6x to 5.4x. If the capacity allocation increases to 15%, annual gross profit could rise to between $307 million and $461 million, correspondingly reducing the valuation multiple to 2.4x to 3.6x.Serenity pointed out that Sivers' CEO has previously confirmed the company is cooperating with more wafer fabs to expand capacity, and since 2024, the scope of its supply chain certifications has been continuously expanding. With the accelerated development of the co-packaged optics (CPO) market, future revenue guidance and capacity plans may be further revised upward.On the demand side, supply of continuous wave (CW) lasers remains tight. Lumentum’s financial report indicates the company has begun purchasing CW lasers from the open market to fulfill EML orders. TrendForce data shows that AMD is securing related capacity through long-term agreements. Serenity believes that as Sivers enters mass production with partners such as GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Ayar Labs, POET, and O-Net, any newly added and certified independent capacity could be quickly absorbed by the market.Additionally, a recent report from Morgan Stanley has listed Sivers, with a market cap of approximately $1.1 billion, as one of the three core players in the CPO laser field, alongside Coherent and Lumentum, which each have market caps exceeding $55 billion. Serenity believes that beyond its existing business, Sivers—having listed on Nasdaq—may also expand its TAM through future M&A, replicating the growth path of Lumentum's acquisition of Cloud Light to enter the complete optical module and optical engine market.
Serenity: Blue Origin Seeks $130 Billion Valuation in Fundraising, Potentially Bullish for Commercial Aerospace Sector
Serenity, known as the "White-Haired Stock Guru," posted on X platform stating that Blue Origin is seeking to raise $10 billion in funding, with a company valuation target of approximately $130 billion. If this fundraising is completed at this valuation, it will provide a new valuation anchor for the commercial aerospace industry, potentially benefiting other aerospace-related companies including RKLB and ASTS. If leading companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin can achieve such high market valuations, investors may reassess the long-term value of companies across the entire space economy industry chain.
Serenity Questions Raymond James' Strong Buy Rating for SPCX, Calling its Research Report "Speechless"
Serenity, known as the "White-Haired Stock God," stated that Raymond James Financial has initiated coverage of SPCX with a "Strong Buy" rating and a price target of $800, a significant increase from the previous $160.In response, Serenity indicated that this price target implies a valuation of $10 trillion for SpaceX, and remarked that he is "speechless" about it, jokingly adding that the so-called "institutional research report" aimed at retail investors essentially speaks for itself in terms of its content.
“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity: Chinese VC Funds Are Accelerating Their Flow into Physical AI and World Model Tracks
: "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity posted on platform X, stating that based on the capital flow direction in China's private VC market, institutions are currently pouring into fields related to Physical AI and World Models on a large scale.Data shows the approximate capital distribution as follows: Large Models/LLMs at about $23.56 billion, AI Infrastructure and Technology Layer at about $15.74 billion, Embodied Intelligence/Physical AI at about $13.36 billion, AIGC Applications at about $8.79 billion, and Autonomous Driving plus other top 20 sub-sectors totaling about $3.82 billion (note: metrics may not be directly comparable).Serenity pointed out that early-stage pure foundational model financing is largely closed, with capital more concentrated in existing leading companies and the World Model direction. He expects this trend to also appear in the US, potentially concentrating further towards leading companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. Regarding AIGC applications, Serenity believes this track's commercialization is already relatively mature, but an absolute winner has yet to emerge, exhibiting a fragmented competitive landscape in both China and the US markets.Overall, Serenity concluded that current AI investments continue to flow into infrastructure and the semiconductor supply chain. Meanwhile, capital is rapidly rotating towards Physical AI and Embodied Intelligence, but the World Model track still lacks direct investment targets.
Bitget Trading Bots Now Support US Stock Tokens (rToken) Smart Positioning Feature
According to the official announcement, the Bitget Trading Bot now supports smart holdings for US stock tokens (rTokens). It has also simultaneously launched multiple recommended portfolios, including the US Stock Top 10 Giants Mag 10, Serenity Holdings, Musk Concept, and more, enabling users to copy holdings with one click and automatically manage positions. Users can navigate to "Trading Bot" and select "Smart Holdings", choose a desired portfolio from the recommendations, enter the investment amount, and establish the position. Alternatively, they can create manually by configuring supported stock rTokens and cryptocurrencies, setting target allocations and rebalancing conditions for each asset, and completing the creation. App users can upgrade to the latest version to experience this feature. It is reported that rTokens, identified by the letter "r" plus the stock ticker (e.g., Nvidia as rNVDA), are issued by Reality, a licensed RWA protocol under Bitget. They connect directly to global liquidity pools such as Nasdaq and NYSE through cooperation with the compliant broker Alpaca. Features include: underlying assets reserved 1:1 and custodied by licensed institutions, stock dividends distributed 1:1 in token form, support for synchronized mapping of corporate actions (stock splits, etc.), and holdings can serve as joint margin for Unified Accounts and USDT-margined contracts, allowing users to flexibly manage funds while holding global stock assets.
Serenity: Humanoid Robots May Reach Labor Substitution Tipping Point, VCs and Tech Giants Begin Adjusting Strategies
"White Hair Stock God" Serenity stated that when he first used ChatGPT in 2023, he believed large language models "performed poorly" in programming capabilities. However, three years later, the related technology has undergone a qualitative transformation. Modern cybersecurity and AI systems, represented by Mythos, now possess "weapon-level" capabilities. He believes the industry is currently entering a critical "inflection point," where humanoid robots and automation technologies are approaching the tipping point for large-scale replacement of human labor.Serenity noted that although outsiders often question whether humanoid robots can currently perform complex tasks such as pipe repair or electrical wiring, the direction of technological evolution is already very clear, with continued breakthroughs expected in the coming years. Market participants, including VCs and large tech companies, have begun adjusting their strategies. Some companies have internal plans to replace a significant amount of human labor with robots to reduce operational costs, referencing previous rumors about Amazon reducing hundreds of thousands of job openings through robotics.Serenity believes that highly regulated industries such as healthcare, ultra-high-skill professional positions, and service sectors relying on human emotional connections may still retain some resistance to substitution. However, the overall trend still points towards a "restructuring of labor." As competition between China and the U.S. intensifies in cutting-edge technology fields, humanoid robots and automation may enter a stage of national-level technological competition. He believes China already holds a leading position in certain areas.
Serenity: US AI Companies Lower Inference Costs to Counter the "Model Distillation" Challenge
"White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity stated that while some observations in the UBS report hold anecdotal truth, the more noteworthy trend is the increasing number of Chinese-language reports regarding the distillation of Anthropic's models. Currently, many US startups and tech companies are opting to use cheaper Chinese models (such as DeepSeek) in their AI applications, as their unit task costs are significantly lower than those of inference models from Gemini, OpenAI, and Anthropic.Serenity believes this trend, driven by capitalism, creates a "typical paradox"—companies naturally gravitate towards lower-cost solutions, thereby eroding the leading advantage of US models. He proposes that the US needs to address this on two fronts:First, build stronger access control and authentication systems, such as "heavy KYC frontier models" for domestic US use and tiered access mechanisms for allies, to reduce the risk of model distillation and misuse. This could also be accompanied by introducing an identity verification system akin to "AI-grade banking authentication" (e.g., biometrics + short-lived permission tokens) to raise the barrier for model calls, and using regulatory measures to restrict account sharing and access resale.Second, enhance the cost efficiency of inference models, allowing them to comprehensively outperform competitors like DeepSeek in both price and performance.Serenity also noted that some high-end models are currently frequently targeted for "distillation exploitation." Ideally, access to models nearing the AGI level should involve increased friction costs. In summary, the core challenge for the US AI industry lies in achieving both "low-cost inference capabilities" and establishing model access security mechanisms comparable to those in the financial system.
New stock god Serenity: COIN, HOOD, and CRCL valuations may become attractive again
a new stock guru, Serenity, posted on X platform, stating that with the progress of US crypto regulatory policies, crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), and Circle (CRCL) may once again attract attention.Serenity believes that if the CLARITY Act advances in its current direction, it may be more favorable for the traditional banking system, potentially limiting certain innovations in the crypto space and products that compete with banking services. Additionally, related policies could impact market liquidity, but may strengthen the position of the US dollar.Serenity stated that for swing traders, the current valuation levels of these stocks appear to be attractive once again.
“New Stock God” Serenity: Photonics-Related Stocks May Benefit Sequentially Within 3 to 15 Months After the EU CHIPS Act Release
: “New Stock God” Serenity posted on platform X, stating that the proposal for the EU Chips Act 2.0 has been officially released. Photonics technology has been confirmed as a structural component of EU policy, which constitutes a long-term positive for the photonics industry. The proposal explicitly supports the development of photonic integrated circuits (PICs) and related technologies. This includes building and strengthening the advanced design, prototyping, and industrialization capabilities for PICs, expanding the EU's design capabilities in the photonics field, supporting pilot production lines and open semiconductor manufacturing facilities for PICs and related technologies, and developing and maintaining design libraries and design automation tools for PICs. The key policy directions include:1. Co-packaged optics (CPO/interconnects) for AI data centers, benefiting Sivers (SIVE)2. Silicon photonics applications for high-bandwidth data center interconnects, benefiting X-FAB (XFAB)3. Strengthening production technical capabilities for photonic integrated circuits, including co-packaging, heterogeneous integration, and material platforms4. The strategic position of SOI wafers within the EU is confirmed, with Soitec and Siltronic being key participantsSerenity's analysis indicates that the Act structurally benefits leading European photonics companies, especially those involved in AI data centers. It is expected that related stocks will benefit sequentially within 3 to 15 months after the policy release, and the market may have already started to react in a forward-looking manner.
“New Stock God” Serenity: Fake Information Network Targeting SIVE Discovered, to Be Reported to SEC for Investigation
“New Stock God” Serenity posted that it recently discovered a "bot farm" consisting of dozens of accounts, which have been continuously spreading false information about SIVE over the past few days.Serenity stated that these accounts had previously participated in marketing activities for some Asian projects, including Alchemy Pay, and may be newly purchased X platform accounts. The relevant accounts have had low historical activity, but recently intensively posted negative content about selling SIVE holdings, repeatedly advising other investors to sell. It also noted that some accounts were found to be using AI to generate negative comments.Serenity stated that due to the traceable records of the related activities, it plans to submit the relevant information to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for investigation, and reminds market participants to be cautious of unverified sources of information.
Serenity: Tech Giants' 2026 CapEx May Exceed Expectations; Bottleneck Assets Like Memory Chips Poised for Valuation Reshaping
"White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity has summarized the capital expenditure guidance from the latest earnings reports of Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft, stating that the four major tech giants are expected to allocate a combined capital expenditure of approximately $720 billion to $745 billion in 2026, exceeding the market's previous expectation of $695 billion to $725 billion. The market has recently experienced significant deleveraging, as well as position liquidations among retail and institutional investors due to margin pressures. While short-term adjustments may persist, it is difficult to maintain a bearish stance on upstream semiconductor companies and next-generation cloud computing infrastructure in the medium to long term.Serenity also proposed the "bottleneck investment" thesis, arguing that when trillions of dollars in capital flow into supply chain segments previously viewed as low-value commodities—such as memory chips and even enterprises in the energy infrastructure sector—these companies may undergo a valuation reshaping. Many currently popular AI supply chain companies were previously overlooked by the market during the telecommunications cycle. However, as AI infrastructure construction enters an acceleration phase and capital expenditure flows into their balance sheets, these enterprises may experience a repricing.
Bitget Trading Bots Now Support US Stock Tokens (rToken) Smart Positioning Feature
According to the official announcement, the Bitget Trading Bot now supports smart holdings for US stock tokens (rTokens). It has also simultaneously launched multiple recommended portfolios, including the US Stock Top 10 Giants Mag 10, Serenity Holdings, Musk Concept, and more, enabling users to copy holdings with one click and automatically manage positions. Users can navigate to "Trading Bot" and select "Smart Holdings", choose a desired portfolio from the recommendations, enter the investment amount, and establish the position. Alternatively, they can create manually by configuring supported stock rTokens and cryptocurrencies, setting target allocations and rebalancing conditions for each asset, and completing the creation. App users can upgrade to the latest version to experience this feature. It is reported that rTokens, identified by the letter "r" plus the stock ticker (e.g., Nvidia as rNVDA), are issued by Reality, a licensed RWA protocol under Bitget. They connect directly to global liquidity pools such as Nasdaq and NYSE through cooperation with the compliant broker Alpaca. Features include: underlying assets reserved 1:1 and custodied by licensed institutions, stock dividends distributed 1:1 in token form, support for synchronized mapping of corporate actions (stock splits, etc.), and holdings can serve as joint margin for Unified Accounts and USDT-margined contracts, allowing users to flexibly manage funds while holding global stock assets.
Account drawdown of 49.4%, US stock call king with 4,502.45% return over 26 years discloses drawdown ratio
, on-chain analyst Ai Yi posted on platform X stating that Serenity (@aleabitoreddit), the US stock call king who achieved a return rate as high as 4,502.45% over 26 years, disclosed his account drawdown ratio. Since the stocks he holds are mostly in areas facing AI bottlenecks and restrictions, primarily small-cap stocks including AXTI, SIVE, AAOI, etc., this decline has had a direct impact on his account, resulting in a drawdown of 49.4%, nearly halved from the peak. Ai Yi stated that considering Serenity's relatively early entry point, it is likely only a narrowing of profits at present. Furthermore, Serenity mentioned that he can tolerate higher volatility and predicts that his income turning point will come in the second half of 2027.
Serenity responds to AI stock crash: portfolio has already retraced 49% in a single month, but long-term thesis remains unchanged
Odaily "White Hair Stock God" Serenity posted on platform X, stating that due to the recent market downturn, his investment portfolio experienced a maximum drawdown of 49.4% this month. However, he still maintains his view on the long-term trend of the AI industry chain.Serenity revealed that his investment portfolio is mainly concentrated in key segments of the AI industry chain, including: semiconductor upstream, memory chips, photonics, humanoid robotics, and AI infrastructure-related companies. Because these areas typically have higher beta attributes, he previously used leveraged investments but has reduced the leverage level after the current round of market decline.Facing market skepticism towards AI-related assets, Serenity stated that recently a large number of investors have begun to believe: "AI is a bubble," "memory chips and the Korean KOSPI market are a bubble," "photonics is a bubble,""humanoid robots will not succeed," and "Neocloud (new AI cloud service providers) will eventually be replaced by hyperscale cloud vendors like Meta." Meanwhile, some retail investors and trading bots have even started advocating for "liquidating everything, the market will not recover."Serenity said he still believes these investment themes are supported by structural revenue growth and technological change. He experienced similar drawdowns in the past when global tariff risks impacted the market, and the market eventually rebounded. His investment horizon is long-term, allowing him to withstand higher volatility, and he will not change his long-term judgment based on short-term price fluctuations. Sharing this drawdown data is also to maintain transparency, allowing the market to see the real risks behind high-volatility growth investments.Serenity added: "If my prediction is that the revenue inflection point will come in the second half of 2027, and it is only 2026 now, then a decline of just a few weeks or months doesn't prove that the investment thesis has failed."
“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity: Chinese VC Funds Are Accelerating Their Flow into Physical AI and World Model Tracks
: "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity posted on platform X, stating that based on the capital flow direction in China's private VC market, institutions are currently pouring into fields related to Physical AI and World Models on a large scale.Data shows the approximate capital distribution as follows: Large Models/LLMs at about $23.56 billion, AI Infrastructure and Technology Layer at about $15.74 billion, Embodied Intelligence/Physical AI at about $13.36 billion, AIGC Applications at about $8.79 billion, and Autonomous Driving plus other top 20 sub-sectors totaling about $3.82 billion (note: metrics may not be directly comparable).Serenity pointed out that early-stage pure foundational model financing is largely closed, with capital more concentrated in existing leading companies and the World Model direction. He expects this trend to also appear in the US, potentially concentrating further towards leading companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. Regarding AIGC applications, Serenity believes this track's commercialization is already relatively mature, but an absolute winner has yet to emerge, exhibiting a fragmented competitive landscape in both China and the US markets.Overall, Serenity concluded that current AI investments continue to flow into infrastructure and the semiconductor supply chain. Meanwhile, capital is rapidly rotating towards Physical AI and Embodied Intelligence, but the World Model track still lacks direct investment targets.
Serenity: OpenAI will launch GPT-5.6 Sol on Cerebras; CBRS position established
Serenity stated that OpenAI will launch the GPT-5.6 Sol model on Cerebras hardware in July, viewing this as a significant validation of Cerebras’ technology, and revealed that it has begun purchasing CBRS stock.
Bitget Trading Bots Now Support US Stock Tokens (rToken) Smart Positioning Feature
According to the official announcement, the Bitget Trading Bot now supports smart holdings for US stock tokens (rTokens). It has also simultaneously launched multiple recommended portfolios, including the US Stock Top 10 Giants Mag 10, Serenity Holdings, Musk Concept, and more, enabling users to copy holdings with one click and automatically manage positions. Users can navigate to "Trading Bot" and select "Smart Holdings", choose a desired portfolio from the recommendations, enter the investment amount, and establish the position. Alternatively, they can create manually by configuring supported stock rTokens and cryptocurrencies, setting target allocations and rebalancing conditions for each asset, and completing the creation. App users can upgrade to the latest version to experience this feature. It is reported that rTokens, identified by the letter "r" plus the stock ticker (e.g., Nvidia as rNVDA), are issued by Reality, a licensed RWA protocol under Bitget. They connect directly to global liquidity pools such as Nasdaq and NYSE through cooperation with the compliant broker Alpaca. Features include: underlying assets reserved 1:1 and custodied by licensed institutions, stock dividends distributed 1:1 in token form, support for synchronized mapping of corporate actions (stock splits, etc.), and holdings can serve as joint margin for Unified Accounts and USDT-margined contracts, allowing users to flexibly manage funds while holding global stock assets.
Serenity Criticizes Paid Analysis Services: If You Could Really Predict the Semiconductor Sector Collapse, Why Not Profit from Shorting?
the "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity stated that he has long shared his personal research and core views for free, without attempting to sell products or provide investment instructions to others. Meanwhile, he insists on transparently disclosing his personal investment returns, whether profit or loss. Regarding certain paid technical analysis (TA) subscription services, if these institutions could truly and consistently predict the collapse of the semiconductor market, they should theoretically generate substantial profits through short selling, rather than relying on monetizing paid content.Addressing the recent significant correction in AI-related stocks such as semiconductors and optical communications, Serenity explained that if his own portfolio employed 1.4x leverage while being highly concentrated in memory chips and the photonics industry chain, with related assets declining by an average of 35%, the portfolio's theoretical drawdown could reach approximately 49%. AI-related assets still hold long-term recovery potential, as the demand within the AI industry chain is forming structural growth, including: continuously increasing demand for AI computing, expanding energy needs for data centers, growing demand for high-performance storage, and upgrades to network infrastructure. Despite short-term market volatility, from the overall demand across computing, energy, memory, and network communication, the construction of AI infrastructure remains in a long-term development cycle.
Serenity: Institutions Begin to Revalue Humanoid Robot Businesses, Chinese Manufacturers' Overall Production Capacity Expected to Reach 100,000 Units by Year-End
"White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity posted on X platform, pointing out that IBK Research released a report last month on the Boston Dynamics supply chain. The report indicates that Boston Dynamics plans to achieve an annual production capacity of 30,000 units only by 2028, while Chinese robot manufacturers are expected to reach a total production capacity of 100,000 units by the end of 2026. This may lead institutions to begin revaluing the humanoid robot sector.In terms of the competitive landscape, the U.S. camp includes Tesla, Figure, Apptronik, and Agility Robotics, while Boston Dynamics is controlled by South Korea's Hyundai Motor Group. Major Chinese players include Unitree Robotics, Fourier Intelligence, AGIBOT, UBTECH Robotics, and XPeng Robotics. European companies include Neura, Pal Robotics, Wandercraft, and Oversonic.Additionally, IBK Research estimates that Atlas shipments will reach 11,290 units by 2028, and will increase to 20,000, 30,000, 40,000, and 50,000 units respectively between 2029 and 2032. However, Serenity questioned this linear growth model, arguing that the actual volume ramp-up curve is more likely to follow an S-curve. Serenity predicts that shipments could reach 15,000 to 20,000 units by 2028, increase to 40,000 to 70,000 units by 2029, and further rise to 90,000 to 140,000 units by 2030.
Serenity: Humanoid Robots May Reach Labor Substitution Tipping Point, VCs and Tech Giants Begin Adjusting Strategies
"White Hair Stock God" Serenity stated that when he first used ChatGPT in 2023, he believed large language models "performed poorly" in programming capabilities. However, three years later, the related technology has undergone a qualitative transformation. Modern cybersecurity and AI systems, represented by Mythos, now possess "weapon-level" capabilities. He believes the industry is currently entering a critical "inflection point," where humanoid robots and automation technologies are approaching the tipping point for large-scale replacement of human labor.Serenity noted that although outsiders often question whether humanoid robots can currently perform complex tasks such as pipe repair or electrical wiring, the direction of technological evolution is already very clear, with continued breakthroughs expected in the coming years. Market participants, including VCs and large tech companies, have begun adjusting their strategies. Some companies have internal plans to replace a significant amount of human labor with robots to reduce operational costs, referencing previous rumors about Amazon reducing hundreds of thousands of job openings through robotics.Serenity believes that highly regulated industries such as healthcare, ultra-high-skill professional positions, and service sectors relying on human emotional connections may still retain some resistance to substitution. However, the overall trend still points towards a "restructuring of labor." As competition between China and the U.S. intensifies in cutting-edge technology fields, humanoid robots and automation may enter a stage of national-level technological competition. He believes China already holds a leading position in certain areas.
Serenity: NVIDIA is the Kingmaker of the ASIC Market, as Marvell and Others Continuously Divert Broadcom's Market Share
Serenity has released an exclusive analysis of the AI ASIC market on the X platform, presenting the core thesis that "NVIDIA is the kingmaker of the ASIC market." It proposes a set of industry reasoning logic, arguing that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang is not pleased with Broadcom monopolizing the custom ASIC track. With implicit support from the NVIDIA ecosystem, companies such as Marvell, MediaTek, AlChip, and GUC are steadily capturing market share originally held by Broadcom, taking on more custom chip projects for hyperscale cloud vendors. This landscape is comparable to the rise of emerging cloud service providers last year, serving as an important means for NVIDIA to hedge against the moat created by leading cloud vendors developing their own ASICs.Serenity suggests this could represent a two-year trading opportunity but does not constitute investment advice. It also predicts that after 2030, major companies like Google will internalize a significant amount of chip design work. It added that NVIDIA has the ability to reshape the valuation of the industry chain, and there have already been market expectations that Marvell could potentially reach a trillion-dollar market cap.
SIVE completes a new round of financing of 700 million Swedish kronor, Serenity says it may be approaching an inflection point for scaled growth
"The White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity posted on X platform, stating that Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE) has completed a new round of capital increase financing worth 700 million Swedish kronor. The round was "multiple times oversubscribed" and was slightly upsized from the original target. Funds from this round will primarily be used to expand production capacity for InP (Indium Phosphide) lasers and optical amplifiers, driving the company's capacity ramp-up under a fab-light model.Serenity's analysis indicates that this financing suggests SIVE may have reached a critical inflection point for scaled development. The issue price was 57 SEK per share, while the current stock price is approximately 63 SEK, close to the market price, which could help form price support. With the entry of institutional funds, this not only reduces SIVE's balance sheet risk but also provides financial support for its transition to the High-Volume Manufacturing (HVM) stage.
Related news
Serenity: Leopold's Investment Mistakes Exaggerated, This Year's Returns Still Around 80%
Serenity stated that external evaluations of AI investor Leopold are inaccurate. Although his investment strategy exposed some issues during the market plunge in July, the overall return rate year-to-date remains approximately 80%.
Serenity: Tech Giants' 2026 CapEx May Exceed Expectations; Bottleneck Assets Like Memory Chips Poised for Valuation Reshaping
"White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity has summarized the capital expenditure guidance from the latest earnings reports of Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft, stating that the four major tech giants are expected to allocate a combined capital expenditure of approximately $720 billion to $745 billion in 2026, exceeding the market's previous expectation of $695 billion to $725 billion. The market has recently experienced significant deleveraging, as well as position liquidations among retail and institutional investors due to margin pressures. While short-term adjustments may persist, it is difficult to maintain a bearish stance on upstream semiconductor companies and next-generation cloud computing infrastructure in the medium to long term.Serenity also proposed the "bottleneck investment" thesis, arguing that when trillions of dollars in capital flow into supply chain segments previously viewed as low-value commodities—such as memory chips and even enterprises in the energy infrastructure sector—these companies may undergo a valuation reshaping. Many currently popular AI supply chain companies were previously overlooked by the market during the telecommunications cycle. However, as AI infrastructure construction enters an acceleration phase and capital expenditure flows into their balance sheets, these enterprises may experience a repricing.
Bitget Trading Bots Now Support US Stock Tokens (rToken) Smart Positioning Feature
According to the official announcement, the Bitget Trading Bot now supports smart holdings for US stock tokens (rTokens). It has also simultaneously launched multiple recommended portfolios, including the US Stock Top 10 Giants Mag 10, Serenity Holdings, Musk Concept, and more, enabling users to copy holdings with one click and automatically manage positions. Users can navigate to "Trading Bot" and select "Smart Holdings", choose a desired portfolio from the recommendations, enter the investment amount, and establish the position. Alternatively, they can create manually by configuring supported stock rTokens and cryptocurrencies, setting target allocations and rebalancing conditions for each asset, and completing the creation. App users can upgrade to the latest version to experience this feature. It is reported that rTokens, identified by the letter "r" plus the stock ticker (e.g., Nvidia as rNVDA), are issued by Reality, a licensed RWA protocol under Bitget. They connect directly to global liquidity pools such as Nasdaq and NYSE through cooperation with the compliant broker Alpaca. Features include: underlying assets reserved 1:1 and custodied by licensed institutions, stock dividends distributed 1:1 in token form, support for synchronized mapping of corporate actions (stock splits, etc.), and holdings can serve as joint margin for Unified Accounts and USDT-margined contracts, allowing users to flexibly manage funds while holding global stock assets.
Account drawdown of 49.4%, US stock call king with 4,502.45% return over 26 years discloses drawdown ratio
, on-chain analyst Ai Yi posted on platform X stating that Serenity (@aleabitoreddit), the US stock call king who achieved a return rate as high as 4,502.45% over 26 years, disclosed his account drawdown ratio. Since the stocks he holds are mostly in areas facing AI bottlenecks and restrictions, primarily small-cap stocks including AXTI, SIVE, AAOI, etc., this decline has had a direct impact on his account, resulting in a drawdown of 49.4%, nearly halved from the peak. Ai Yi stated that considering Serenity's relatively early entry point, it is likely only a narrowing of profits at present. Furthermore, Serenity mentioned that he can tolerate higher volatility and predicts that his income turning point will come in the second half of 2027.
Serenity: SK Hynix ADR Premium Over Korean Shares Exceeds 25%, Conversion Opens July 29, May Trigger Arbitrage
"White-haired Stock God" Serenity posted that SK Hynix American Depositary Receipts (ADR) currently trade at a premium of over 25% compared to local South Korean stocks, while the conversion mechanism between ADRs and Korean stocks will officially open on July 29, which may create conditions for market arbitrage trading and drive the narrowing of the price spread between the two markets.
Serenity Criticizes Paid Analysis Services: If You Could Really Predict the Semiconductor Sector Collapse, Why Not Profit from Shorting?
the "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity stated that he has long shared his personal research and core views for free, without attempting to sell products or provide investment instructions to others. Meanwhile, he insists on transparently disclosing his personal investment returns, whether profit or loss. Regarding certain paid technical analysis (TA) subscription services, if these institutions could truly and consistently predict the collapse of the semiconductor market, they should theoretically generate substantial profits through short selling, rather than relying on monetizing paid content.Addressing the recent significant correction in AI-related stocks such as semiconductors and optical communications, Serenity explained that if his own portfolio employed 1.4x leverage while being highly concentrated in memory chips and the photonics industry chain, with related assets declining by an average of 35%, the portfolio's theoretical drawdown could reach approximately 49%. AI-related assets still hold long-term recovery potential, as the demand within the AI industry chain is forming structural growth, including: continuously increasing demand for AI computing, expanding energy needs for data centers, growing demand for high-performance storage, and upgrades to network infrastructure. Despite short-term market volatility, from the overall demand across computing, energy, memory, and network communication, the construction of AI infrastructure remains in a long-term development cycle.