News linked to both this project and an event.
"White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity has summarized the capital expenditure guidance from the latest earnings reports of Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft, stating that the four major tech giants are expected to allocate a combined capital expenditure of approximately $720 billion to $745 billion in 2026, exceeding the market's previous expectation of $695 billion to $725 billion. The market has recently experienced significant deleveraging, as well as position liquidations among retail and institutional investors due to margin pressures. While short-term adjustments may persist, it is difficult to maintain a bearish stance on upstream semiconductor companies and next-generation cloud computing infrastructure in the medium to long term.Serenity also proposed the "bottleneck investment" thesis, arguing that when trillions of dollars in capital flow into supply chain segments previously viewed as low-value commodities—such as memory chips and even enterprises in the energy infrastructure sector—these companies may undergo a valuation reshaping. Many currently popular AI supply chain companies were previously overlooked by the market during the telecommunications cycle. However, as AI infrastructure construction enters an acceleration phase and capital expenditure flows into their balance sheets, these enterprises may experience a repricing.
"White-Haired Stock God" Serenity stated that today, Micron ($MU) announced the signing of a long-term memory supply agreement with Qualcomm ($QCOM). However, the market reaction was somewhat unexpected, with Micron's stock price subsequently falling by 5.37%.Serenity believes that against the backdrop of the AI industry chain continuously signing long-term supply agreements to lock in future demand, current memory and AI-related stocks themselves have not shown any significant signs of fundamental deterioration.He noted that the recent sector adjustment is more likely due to a chain reaction triggered by market deleveraging and margin pressure, rather than a reversal in AI demand or storage industry trends.Serenity pointed out that as AI infrastructure construction continues to advance, companies across the industry chain are strengthening supply security through long-term agreements. Short-term market volatility may more reflect adjustments in capital flows and valuations, rather than a shift in the long-term growth logic.
"White Hair Stock God" Serenity published an analysis stating that if Sivers obtains approximately 10% of wafer capacity allocation from foundry Win Semi through an asset-light model, under the assumptions of 65% yield and an ASP of $50 to $75, the annual revenue from its optical array products could reach $341 million to $512 million. Based on management’s gross margin target of 50% to 60%+, the corresponding annual gross profit would be approximately $205 million to $307 million.At Sivers' current market cap of around $1.1 billion, the market cap-to-gross profit multiple in this scenario would be only about 3.6x to 5.4x. If the capacity allocation increases to 15%, annual gross profit could rise to between $307 million and $461 million, correspondingly reducing the valuation multiple to 2.4x to 3.6x.Serenity pointed out that Sivers' CEO has previously confirmed the company is cooperating with more wafer fabs to expand capacity, and since 2024, the scope of its supply chain certifications has been continuously expanding. With the accelerated development of the co-packaged optics (CPO) market, future revenue guidance and capacity plans may be further revised upward.On the demand side, supply of continuous wave (CW) lasers remains tight. Lumentum’s financial report indicates the company has begun purchasing CW lasers from the open market to fulfill EML orders. TrendForce data shows that AMD is securing related capacity through long-term agreements. Serenity believes that as Sivers enters mass production with partners such as GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Ayar Labs, POET, and O-Net, any newly added and certified independent capacity could be quickly absorbed by the market.Additionally, a recent report from Morgan Stanley has listed Sivers, with a market cap of approximately $1.1 billion, as one of the three core players in the CPO laser field, alongside Coherent and Lumentum, which each have market caps exceeding $55 billion. Serenity believes that beyond its existing business, Sivers—having listed on Nasdaq—may also expand its TAM through future M&A, replicating the growth path of Lumentum's acquisition of Cloud Light to enter the complete optical module and optical engine market.
Serenity, known as the "White-Haired Stock Guru," posted on X platform stating that Blue Origin is seeking to raise $10 billion in funding, with a company valuation target of approximately $130 billion. If this fundraising is completed at this valuation, it will provide a new valuation anchor for the commercial aerospace industry, potentially benefiting other aerospace-related companies including RKLB and ASTS. If leading companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin can achieve such high market valuations, investors may reassess the long-term value of companies across the entire space economy industry chain.
Serenity, known as the "White-Haired Stock God," stated that Raymond James Financial has initiated coverage of SPCX with a "Strong Buy" rating and a price target of $800, a significant increase from the previous $160.In response, Serenity indicated that this price target implies a valuation of $10 trillion for SpaceX, and remarked that he is "speechless" about it, jokingly adding that the so-called "institutional research report" aimed at retail investors essentially speaks for itself in terms of its content.
: "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity posted on platform X, stating that based on the capital flow direction in China's private VC market, institutions are currently pouring into fields related to Physical AI and World Models on a large scale.Data shows the approximate capital distribution as follows: Large Models/LLMs at about $23.56 billion, AI Infrastructure and Technology Layer at about $15.74 billion, Embodied Intelligence/Physical AI at about $13.36 billion, AIGC Applications at about $8.79 billion, and Autonomous Driving plus other top 20 sub-sectors totaling about $3.82 billion (note: metrics may not be directly comparable).Serenity pointed out that early-stage pure foundational model financing is largely closed, with capital more concentrated in existing leading companies and the World Model direction. He expects this trend to also appear in the US, potentially concentrating further towards leading companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. Regarding AIGC applications, Serenity believes this track's commercialization is already relatively mature, but an absolute winner has yet to emerge, exhibiting a fragmented competitive landscape in both China and the US markets.Overall, Serenity concluded that current AI investments continue to flow into infrastructure and the semiconductor supply chain. Meanwhile, capital is rapidly rotating towards Physical AI and Embodied Intelligence, but the World Model track still lacks direct investment targets.
Serenity has released an exclusive analysis of the AI ASIC market on the X platform, presenting the core thesis that "NVIDIA is the kingmaker of the ASIC market." It proposes a set of industry reasoning logic, arguing that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang is not pleased with Broadcom monopolizing the custom ASIC track. With implicit support from the NVIDIA ecosystem, companies such as Marvell, MediaTek, AlChip, and GUC are steadily capturing market share originally held by Broadcom, taking on more custom chip projects for hyperscale cloud vendors. This landscape is comparable to the rise of emerging cloud service providers last year, serving as an important means for NVIDIA to hedge against the moat created by leading cloud vendors developing their own ASICs.Serenity suggests this could represent a two-year trading opportunity but does not constitute investment advice. It also predicts that after 2030, major companies like Google will internalize a significant amount of chip design work. It added that NVIDIA has the ability to reshape the valuation of the industry chain, and there have already been market expectations that Marvell could potentially reach a trillion-dollar market cap.
"The White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity posted on X platform, stating that Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE) has completed a new round of capital increase financing worth 700 million Swedish kronor. The round was "multiple times oversubscribed" and was slightly upsized from the original target. Funds from this round will primarily be used to expand production capacity for InP (Indium Phosphide) lasers and optical amplifiers, driving the company's capacity ramp-up under a fab-light model.Serenity's analysis indicates that this financing suggests SIVE may have reached a critical inflection point for scaled development. The issue price was 57 SEK per share, while the current stock price is approximately 63 SEK, close to the market price, which could help form price support. With the entry of institutional funds, this not only reduces SIVE's balance sheet risk but also provides financial support for its transition to the High-Volume Manufacturing (HVM) stage.
“New Stock God” Serenity posted on platform X, expressing curiosity about how investors will feel if they miss the AI super cycle.Serenity believes that photonics, memory storage, and Neocloud providers represented by Nebius (NBIS) are all poised to benefit from the development opportunities of the AI super cycle. Meanwhile, Serenity quipped that some investors are still holding IREN, which has “endless $6 billion ATM financing capabilities,” while overlooking potential opportunities within the AI industry chain.
Odaily, "White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity posted on X, reviewing his past experiences where his investment views faced skepticism. He stated that many original investment ideas initially face strong opposition, but ultimately the market becomes the standard for judging right and wrong. He has faced significant criticism for being bullish on several companies, for example:$AXTI: Early on, it was questioned as a "scam company," and related discussions even led to a ban from Reddit's WSB forum. However, it later received coverage from Reuters, and the performance of the Indium Phosphide (InP) substrate industry company, along with institutional investor validation, confirmed its logic.$RPI: Initially labeled a "meme stock" by the market, analysts believed it lacked fundamentals. However, earnings reports showed the company's future revenue growth expectation reached 58%, and it was subsequently re-evaluated as a high-growth AI hardware company.$SIVE: Once considered a "meme stock" by numerous investors, it later gained institutional buying support, including attention from Fidelity Research, JPMorgan Chase, and others, and announced partnerships with companies like Jabil and GlobalFoundries.Serenity stated, "The market will ultimately decide what is right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X (formerly Twitter)." He added that as each investment thesis gets validated one by one, the eventual market performance overshadows the early noise. He also listed several other cases that were initially doubted but later gained market recognition, including:$AAOI: Near $30, management was questioned as "untrustworthy";$LITE: At $300, the photonics industry was considered to be in a bubble;$RKLB: At $20, it was dismissed as just a low-revenue launch company;$HOOD: At $20, it faced negative sentiment due to the GameStop trading restriction incident;$IQE: Considered just a small UK company lacking partnerships in the photonics field;$SOI: Analysts at a European bank considered its valuation too high;$NBIS: Questioned for having no competitive moat;$INTC: The market thought it couldn't compete with TSMC;$MRVL: The market feared its ASIC market share would be taken by Broadcom;$AEHR: The market misinterpreted its earnings report, thinking the company lacked revenue;$EWY: The market believed the South Korean semiconductor cycle was in a bubble.
“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity released his personal investment observations, focusing on valuation and shareholding structure analyses of several technology and semiconductor-related companies. He particularly emphasized net asset value (NAV) discounts and growth momentum. His key views include: 1. Wistron is considered one of his top-conviction holdings. Its current market capitalization stands at approximately USD 16.2 billion; Q1 revenue surged 144% year-on-year. It holds ~35.46% of Wiwynn, with the implied value of this stake amounting to ~0.66x Wistron’s market cap. 2. Wiwynn is viewed as having strong continued growth potential and is among his core monitored assets. 3. Priortech holds ~21% of Camtek; the implied value of this stake is ~1.35x Priortech’s own market cap—indicating a quasi-controlling ownership structure. 4. GlobalWafers exhibits a significant NAV discount (~USD 3.5 billion market cap vs. ~USD 7.9 billion in underlying stake value). 5. Korean-listed companies Iljin Holdings and Simmtech Holdings also show notable NAV discounts; however, Serenity remains cautious regarding corporate governance quality and valuation realization capability in Korean firms. Serenity noted that his analysis remains in the research phase, with no final investment conclusions yet drawn. Nevertheless, he leans toward increasing position concentration in these names further on Monday, underscoring that certain companies possess standalone growth capacity and meaningful NAV re-rating potential.
"White-Haired Stock God" Serenity disclosed the minutes of the ALRIB shareholder meeting on the X platform, pointing out that multiple business developments of the company have released positive signals. The minutes indicate that the company's second-generation ROSIE system is expected to be delivered soon to a leading quantum computing company in the United States, marking further progress in the implementation of its technology in the high-end equipment field. At the same time, the company is increasing its business development (BD) efforts for photon-related BTO/STO products and has received strong market interest feedback. Serenity added that ALRIB, together with Veeco Instruments, forms a duopoly in the molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) equipment market, and has recently been revalued by the market due to its exposure to quantum computing. Its holdings also include RIBER.
“White-Haired Stock Guru” Serenity posted a summary of the regional market style differences observed on X:1. USA: Bullish on all “futuristic” narratives, such as targets like $SPCX. Less sensitive to valuations, more focused on potential and imagination.2. Europe: From SIVE to SOI, attention to AI infrastructure construction is relatively weak. The time frame leans toward performance over the past 12 months (specifically noting that Belgium has performed decently, while observing France and Sweden).3. South Korea: High-leverage “Degen” style with extremely volatile markets, similar to the intense fluctuation structure of “50x Hyperliquid traders entering the stock market.”4. Japan: Generally mild and supportive, with fewer aggressive short-selling or bearish expressions.Serenity added that data on other regions such as Latin America is still insufficient, but observations will continue in the future.
“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity posted on platform X, stating that Jabil (JBL), currently with a market cap of approximately $38 billion, represents an attractive long-term investment opportunity. The market may not have fully priced in the potential value of its 1.6T LRO pluggable optical module business.By the first half of 2027, the industry bottleneck may no longer be insufficient demand, but rather the production capacity limitations of key upstream supplier SIVE. In this context, leveraging its mature global supply chain system and the advantage of taking over Intel's (INTC) pluggable optical module production line, Jabil is well-positioned to benefit from the demand growth driven by AI infrastructure construction. Compared to Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), which relies on continuous capital expenditure to expand laser factories, if SIVE and multiple foundries including Win Semi achieve mass production of lasers, Jabil's backend manufacturing and integration model will prove more scalable.Serenity stated that Jabil currently possesses a supply chain system validated by hyperscale cloud service providers, exhibiting a growth trajectory similar to that of Innolight, while also enjoying a valuation premium in the US market. He expects that as the market gradually recognizes the relevant opportunities by the first half of 2027, Jabil has approximately 40% room for valuation revaluation. However, he emphasized that he currently holds no positions and is merely sharing research ideas for investors' reference.
"New Stock God" Serenity posted on X platform, reminding investors to pay attention to financing structures and the dynamics of outstanding shares, as these are crucial for investment returns, and provided examples:IREN: The financing method approaches infinite dilution, with each rebound met by selling pressure—essentially a "bad stock."NBIS: Up 153% year-to-date, thanks to an optimized financing structure (such as direct offerings, convertible bond combinations, etc.).CRWV: High debt interest; the company uses usurious loans for GPU financing, which erodes free cash flow over the long term.Serenity pointed out that if a company has strong fundamentals, one could consider going long after the original shareholding has been diluted to near zero. However, for equity value appreciation, one should stay away from companies with "toxic" financing structures or crushing debt. The risk is especially high for small-cap companies, such as $SLNH adding a $500 million ATM while its market cap is only $250 million; $BKKT continuously diluting stock for executive compensation. Essentially, these companies are transferring investor funds to the enterprise, masked by media hype or influencer promotion.Serenity emphasized that investors must carefully analyze equity structure, dilution risk, and hidden costs when screening targets, to avoid focusing solely on profits while seeing their actual equity shrink.
“New Stock God” Serenity posted on X platform to clarify that he does not currently hold any shares of Harmonic Drive, and the related views are solely public research sharing. He further added that Harmonic Drive holds a key position in the humanoid robot industry chain, with its products expected to cover a significant portion of the manufacturing processes for humanoid robots. Currently, companies like AGIBot and Unitree have just entered the scale-up stage, with AGIBot’s cumulative shipments reaching only about 10,000 units. Therefore, the P/E valuations of related companies are generally high at this stage.However, Serenity pointed out that capital markets typically price in future growth expectations in advance. If manufacturers like Tesla Optimus and Unitree achieve mass production of tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of robots in the coming years, and with trillions of dollars flowing into the humanoid robot industry, even if Harmonic Drive only captures about a 5% market share of core robot components, its valuation could be significantly higher than its current market capitalization.Based on comprehensive research of the industry chain, Serenity stated that Harmonic Drive is currently one of the highest-exposure targets he has identified related to the development of the humanoid robot industry.
a new stock guru, Serenity, posted on X platform, stating that with the progress of US crypto regulatory policies, crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), and Circle (CRCL) may once again attract attention.Serenity believes that if the CLARITY Act advances in its current direction, it may be more favorable for the traditional banking system, potentially limiting certain innovations in the crypto space and products that compete with banking services. Additionally, related policies could impact market liquidity, but may strengthen the position of the US dollar.Serenity stated that for swing traders, the current valuation levels of these stocks appear to be attractive once again.
"New Stock God" Serenity stated that he had not anticipated Alphabet, Google's parent company, would need to seek financing to support its $80 billion AI capital expenditure plan, adding that the funds will be used for the AI infrastructure construction of hyperscale cloud service providers.According to his introduction, this financing includes a $40 billion ATM equity offering program, $30 billion in stock and related securities issuance, and a $10 billion investment from Berkshire Hathaway.Serenity believes that Alphabet's expansion of AI capital expenditures could benefit upstream supply chain companies such as Lumentum (LITE), Broadcom (AVGO), MediaTek, TSMC (TSM), and Micron (MU). However, he also noted that for Google shareholders, such a massive capital expenditure plan is not entirely supported by free cash flow, meaning its impact may not be entirely positive.
“New Stock God” Serenity posted on X, seemingly responding to the potential investigation into Sivers, stating that Sivers (SIVE) should fully transform into a U.S. company, with Nasdaq listing as the first step—given that the company already possesses a U.S. capital structure, a significant equity stake, and support under the CHIPS Act. Such a transformation would deliver higher valuation premiums and M&A opportunities. Meanwhile, negative reporting by Swedish local media—allegedly influenced by short sellers—is hindering the development of AI photonics, whereas the U.S. market offers greater financing opportunities and support from institutions, funds, and indices.