News linked to both this project and an event.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "GRVT FDV above $350M one day after launch" has dropped to 6%, down 25% in the past 24 hours.This event will be settled on day 1 after the GRVT governance token goes live, based on whether its fully diluted valuation (FDV) is higher than the specified value in the title.If the FDV on day 1 after the GRVT token listing is higher than the specified value, the event settles as "Yes"; otherwise, it settles as "No".For the token listing, it must meet the conditions of being publicly transferable and tradeable. FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price."Day 1 after listing" is defined as 16:00 (ET) on the next calendar day after the listing date. The settlement price will reference the most liquid price source.Previously reported, Binance Futures has listed the GRVTUSDT perpetual contract with up to 10x leverage.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Polymarket has announced that, to enhance the manipulation resistance of its cryptocurrency up/down prediction markets, affected markets will transition from single price snapshot settlement to Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) settlement starting from 00:00 UTC on August 7. Specifically, the 5-minute markets will adopt a 30-second TWAP, while the 15-minute and 4-hour markets will adopt a 60-second TWAP.Additionally, the platform will provide a total of $1 million in liquidity rewards for the relevant markets throughout August. Chainlink's TWAP testnet data feed is now live, with the mainnet data feed and Polymarket's Real-Time Data Streams (RTDS) scheduled to go live on August 4, 2026.
According to The Block, 44 state attorneys general led by Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson jointly submitted a public comment letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stating that the CFTC's proposed rules exceed the authority granted by the Commodity Exchange Act and requesting them to redraft new rules compliant with the Constitution. The letter emphasized that sports betting has historically fallen under state-level regulatory jurisdiction, and the federal government has never intervened. Meanwhile, the NFL also wrote to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, requesting to curb the expansion of sports prediction markets, arguing that the current proposed rules are insufficient to protect the integrity of events. Currently, the legal battle between states and the CFTC continues to intensify: a Minnesota court ruled to suspend the enforcement of the state's prediction market ban, allowing Kalshi and Polymarket to continue operations; however, a New York federal judge again refused to block New York State from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, and Michigan and Washington states have also issued temporary injunctions restricting Kalshi from conducting sports event contract business locally.
as the esports event prediction market continues to heat up, the League of Legends LCK (Legends Group Round 3-4) is featuring a marquee matchup: T1 will face KT Rolster at 18:00 (UTC+8) on July 29. According to the latest data from the Gate prediction market, T1 currently holds a support rate of approximately 79%, while KT Rolster stands at around 22%. The Gate prediction market closely follows global sports and esports hotspots, continuously enriching trading scenarios to deliver an efficient and seamless one-stop prediction experience for users.Gate is launching the "Esports Peak Trading Season" from July 20, 16:00 to August 10, 16:00 (UTC+8), with a total prize pool of 200,000 USDT. After registering, users who participate in designated esports event prediction trades on the Gate prediction market can unlock newcomer benefits, weekly task rewards, and compete on the esports prediction trading leaderboard. As the first centralized exchange to integrate with Polymarket, Gate has become a key gateway for users to engage with prediction markets. Users can access Gate Polymarket via the Alpha section on the Gate App homepage, using USDT in their accounts to conveniently participate in prediction market trades for popular esports events and championship outcomes. Users can also leverage the "Smart Money" feature to track the positions and market judgments of high-win-rate traders, gaining additional reference for esports event predictions. Gate is continuously expanding the application scenarios of its prediction market, offering users a diversified prediction trading experience covering popular esports events and other major happenings.
on Polymarket, Apple has around a 79% probability of becoming the world's most valuable company by the end of July, while Nvidia's probability has dropped to approximately 22%. The cumulative trading volume for this prediction market is about $4.7 million. At Tuesday's close, Apple's market cap was approximately $4.995 trillion, and Nvidia's market cap stood at about $4.768 trillion, giving Apple a lead of roughly $227 billion. This contract will be settled based on the market caps of the two companies at the close of trading on July 31. Apple is scheduled to release its third fiscal quarter earnings on July 30 at 5 PM Eastern Time. Nvidia's latest fiscal quarter saw data center revenue grow by 75% to $62.3 billion.
According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in the Polymarket event "Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates by 25 basis points after the July meeting?", a new account (0x0c689c8e78588fd3d02e56a6e787e7f9e9b09e76) purchased $196,000 worth of shares predicting the Federal Reserve will not raise rates by 25 basis points after the July meeting, with an entry price of 72.5¢.This event will determine the adjustment range of the federal funds target rate upper bound compared to before the meeting, based on the statement released by the Federal Reserve after the July FOMC meeting.If the rate adjustment range does not correspond to an existing option, it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points for settlement. For example, a rate cut or hike of 12.5 basis points will be calculated as 25 basis points.Settlement is based on the official FOMC meeting statement and federal funds target rate data released by the Federal Reserve. If no relevant statement is released before the next scheduled meeting concludes, the event will be settled as "No Change."The Federal Reserve’s July FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28-29.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Prediction market traders have priced the probability of OpenAI publicly releasing GPT-6 by September 30 at approximately 78%. The Polymarket related market trading volume is about $731,000, an increase of approximately $32,000 from the previous index snapshot; probability for the contract releasing before September 30 has risen to 77%, probability for release before August 31 is in the mid-30% range, and probability for release before August 21 has dropped to 15%. On Myriad, the probability for a September release has also risen to 77%, up from 64% last week. As of July 27, OpenAI has not yet publicly announced GPT-6, its technical design, or a release date. Its current flagship general-purpose model, GPT-5.6 Sol, was publicly released on July 9. OpenAI previously confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-release model breached Hugging Face during a cybersecurity evaluation. The company also announced the addition of 250 new positions in Dublin, while SoftBank is providing financing for OpenAI's related initiatives through a $40 billion bridge loan.
the long-awaited digital asset regulatory bill, the CLARITY Act, has hit a snag in its advancement. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Senate is not expected to pass the bill before the August recess.The CLARITY Act aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets, promoting the integration of blockchain and crypto assets into the mainstream financial system. Previously, the bill had undergone multiple rounds of negotiations between the crypto industry and opposing forces, such as the banking sector, and was once considered close to passage.However, recent controversy surrounding conflicts of interest related to President Donald Trump and his family's involvement in crypto projects has emerged as a new obstacle. Democrats are demanding the inclusion of ethical clauses in the bill that would restrict government officials from profiting from crypto transactions, a stance Republicans have previously opposed. Prediction market data indicates that the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has significantly declined. Polymarket data shows that as of Friday, the probability stood at approximately 37%, well below the over 80% level seen earlier this spring.Crypto policy organizations and industry insiders believe the current delay is largely influenced by the political dynamics of the U.S. midterm elections. Ron Hammond, Head of Policy and Advocacy at Wintermute, stated that the votes to support the bill may still exist, but "election politics are louder." He suggested that a window for advancing the bill could still emerge after the November elections.Analysts point out that if Congress needs to prioritize major issues such as government funding and national defense before the end of its current term, the CLARITY Act could be further marginalized. As the U.S. political landscape may shift following the midterm elections, the outlook for crypto regulatory legislation remains highly uncertain. (Fortune)
OdailyOdailyOdaily News: The Wisconsin Election Commission has stated that residents who purchase contracts related to a specific election on Kalshi or Polymarket may lose their eligibility to vote in that same election. The Commission also noted that knowingly voting without being eligible could constitute a Class I felony. The Commission unanimously approved a legal memorandum regarding prediction markets during a meeting on July 9, and issued a statewide notice on Tuesday. The restrictions apply only to the corresponding election and do not automatically affect a trader's voting eligibility in other unrelated elections. Benjamin Freeman, Head of Election Business at Kalshi, stated that the guidance is "clearly unconstitutional and unlawful," adding that the company has hundreds of thousands of users in Wisconsin alone. Robert DeNault, Head of Enforcement and Legal Counsel at Kalshi, said that election markets certified by the CFTC and offered on federally regulated exchanges are legal. A spokesperson for Polymarket stated that the company would respond to the Commission's claims through appropriate legal proceedings. Both companies argue that their products are tradable financial contracts, not gambling.
The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitors that in the Polymarket prediction event "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire," the probability for August 14 is currently 34%, down 1% in a week; the probability for August 31 is currently 51%, down 3% in a week.According to the resolution rules, if at any point between the market creation and the specified deadline (Eastern Time 23:59), there begins a consecutive 14-day period during which the US does not conduct qualifying military actions against Iran, the market will resolve to "Yes." Qualifying military actions refer to airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks initiated by the US that directly strike targets within Iranian territory.It is reported that the US military has conducted strikes against Iranian military targets for the 13th consecutive night, and Iran has rejected the ceasefire proposal put forward by Trump. Neither side has yet signaled de-escalation in the short term. However, according to sources close to the matter, Trump has become increasingly frustrated with the protracted war, while his advisors worry that the conflict has driven up prices, hurt approval ratings, and resulted in the deaths of over a dozen US soldiers. This continues to drain the political capital of the Trump administration and could further impact the Republican Party's prospects in the midterm elections.Join the PPP Signal Push Community, stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "the next Claude Opus model will be released on July 23, 2026" is currently at 61%, up 51% in 24 hours; additionally, the probability of "release before July 24" is at 9%; the probability of "release before July 25" is at 5%;This event will be settled based on the date (Eastern Time) when Anthropic's next Claude Opus model becomes available to the public. Only models explicitly named "Opus" by Anthropic are valid, and they must be accessible to the public (including public beta testing or open waitlist). Other models such as Sonnet and Haiku are not counted. The final settlement will primarily rely on official Anthropic information.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
According to Reuters, prediction market platform Polymarket announced it will launch a legal challenge against the decision by the French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) to block its website. ANJ unilaterally blocked access to Polymarket in France last week, citing "potential for significant gambling losses for users" and "risk of manipulation of platform bets." Polymarket expressed disappointment over this and stated it would seek relief through French legal procedures. Previously, the Spanish government temporarily banned Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi in May this year, and US derivatives regulators also released a new regulatory draft targeting the prediction market industry in June, indicating a clear trend of tightening global regulation.
Institutional crypto trading platform Talos has integrated prediction market operator Kalshi, allowing some clients to trade Kalshi's event contracts and crypto perpetual contracts through existing digital asset trading infrastructure without needing a separate connection. Talos will provide algorithmic order types such as Iceberg, TWAP, and POV, as well as multi-leg execution for perpetual-to-perpetual and perpetual-to-spot spread trades. Institutional clients can also execute block trades of Kalshi contracts through its RFQ platform using participating OTC liquidity providers. Talos plans to expand its trading software to brokers and trading platforms later this year, enabling them to offer Kalshi event contracts directly to their clients upon authorization, and to launch a unified prediction market data feed that standardizes events, trades, order books, open interest, and implied probabilities across multiple platforms. A CoinGecko report shows that the prediction market recorded a notional trading volume of $113.8 billion in Q2, a 48.7% quarter-over-quarter increase; notional trading volume in June reached $52.8 billion, setting a new monthly record. Kalshi's market share rose from 42.4% in Q1 to 58.9%, while Polymarket's fell from 35.8% to 30.2%.
Paradis Labs stated on platform X that it is currently difficult to determine whether semiconductor stocks have bottomed out. Most AI infrastructure-related stocks rose on the day, with SIVE, AEHR, and IQE gaining over 20%, and SNDK, MU, and AAOI rising over 10%.Paradis Labs noted that regardless of today's returns, gaining more clarity over the coming weeks will be more important: On July 22, GOOGL will release its Q2 earnings, which will serve as the first formal indicator of annual capital expenditure for approximately $750 billion in hyperscale cloud providers; On July 22-23, AMD will hold the Advancing AI event, where wafer foundry loading, advanced packaging, and laser-type demand roadmaps through 2027 can be observed; On July 23, INTC will report Q2 earnings, with 18A yield and foundry commitments potentially being major variables, while also providing insights into U.S. domestic manufacturing and packaging momentum; On July 23, IBM will report Q2 earnings, and with its market cap already down ~25%, the market's reaction to any guidance shortfall is worth watching; On July 24, 10% global tariffs expire, and new tariffs are expected to be imposed on dozens of countries, which could act as a stagflationary factor and influence the Fed's rate hike narrative; On July 27, Kimi K3's complete weights will be released; On July 28-29, the FOMC meeting will convene, with experts and Polymarket expecting rates to remain unchanged. It is noteworthy that a rate hike or a signal of a rate hike would represent the first true institutional shift for the AI trade; On July 29-30, META, MSFT, and AMZN will report earnings, providing more capital expenditure data; On July 30, the U.S. will release June core PCE.Paradis Labs also indicated that a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran could be reached at any time. A 10-day proposal is currently on the table, while attacks continue. A formally confirmed ceasefire would be beneficial for oil prices and bullish for semiconductor stocks. The above is a high-level timeline of the key upcoming events, all of which will impact semiconductor stocks to varying degrees. When hyperscale cloud providers report earnings, AI capital expenditure will be the most important factor.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "CLARITY Bill Signed into Law in 2026" on Polymarket has risen to 42%, up 5% in 24 hours and 10% in a week.The market rules are as follows: If the "Digital Asset Market Transparency Act of 2025" (HR3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "YES"; otherwise, it will resolve to "NO". The primary sources of information are official announcements from the U.S. Congress website and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.White House Crypto Advisor Patrick Witt has officially stated today that he will remain in Washington to push for the passage of the CLARITY Act. Previously, there were reports that he would leave before the Senate vote, but that news has now been overturned.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
: On the prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closing before August 31 has risen to 21%, up from a low of 11% on Monday morning. The probability of a closure before September 30 once rose to 26%. The Yemeni Houthi group, Ansar Allah, has announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, stating that the operation is based on the principle of "an eye for an eye" and aims to disrupt the flow of Saudi crude oil exports. The relevant passage handles the transit of over 4.5 million barrels of crude oil. The outcome of this prediction contract will be determined based on maritime trade flow data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) platform, PortWatch. If the 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is equal to or less than 10 on any day between the contract's creation and its expiration date, the contract will be resolved as "Yes."
according to the latest in-depth report by U.Today, as the prediction market continues to heat up, sports events are becoming a key engine driving industry growth. As the world's first centralized exchange to integrate Polymarket, Gate Polymarket significantly lowers the barrier to user participation by offering a trading experience with no wallet, no cross-chain, and no gas fees. Users can directly use USDT from their Gate accounts to make predictions without the need for complex on-chain operations. Currently, Gate Polymarket has become one of the largest traffic gateways for Polymarket. As of July 16, its cumulative trading volume has exceeded $622 million. On July 6, its weekly trading volume surpassed $100 million, and it ranks first in Polymarket's daily, weekly, and monthly trading volume across all channels.The report points out that the 2026 World Cup is becoming one of the key catalysts driving the rapid growth of the prediction market. The World Cup Hub, built around the event, integrates match schedules, standings, real-time scores, match alerts, historical data, and prediction trading. Sports predictions continue to attract a large number of users, further boosting Gate Polymarket’s activity and market liquidity.U.Today believes that Gate has not only lowered the barrier to entry for the prediction market but also further refined the product experience. It has launched innovative features such as a dual-mode trading interface, AI event analysis, smart money tracking, real-time fund flow alerts, and event contracts, helping users discover market opportunities more efficiently. By combining the convenient experience of a centralized exchange with the deep integration of Polymarket’s decentralized prediction market, Gate is continuously expanding the application scenarios of the prediction market and driving on-chain prediction markets toward a more open, efficient, and mainstream stage of development.
Odaily, July 20 - According to official sources, Gate has launched the Esports Peak Trading Season from 16:00 on July 20 to 16:00 on August 10 (UTC+8), with a total prize pool of 200,000 USDT. During the event, users who register and participate in designated prediction trading for esports events in the Gate Polymarket esports section can enjoy newcomer benefits, weekly trading tasks, and the prediction trading leaderboard to share generous rewards. After the event, the top 100 users by cumulative prediction trading volume who meet the corresponding trading volume requirements can also share a 50,000 USDT leaderboard reward, with the 1st place winner eligible to receive up to 10,000 USDT. Currently, the Gate Prediction Market has launched prediction markets for popular events such as the 2026 KeSPA Cup "League of Legends" Chevor DRX vs. KT team, and more exciting events can be found on the platform for participation.According to data from Polymarket Builders, the Gate Prediction Market ranked first among Polymarket channels in single-day trading volume on July 19, and has also maintained a leading position in cumulative trading volume over the past week and month, ranking first among Polymarket channels. As the first centralized trading platform to integrate Polymarket, Gate has become a key entry point for users to participate in prediction markets. Users can enter Gate Polymarket via the Alpha section on the Gate App homepage and use USDT in their accounts to conveniently trade in prediction markets for popular esports events and championship outcomes. Users can also leverage the "Smart Money" feature to track the positions and market judgments of high-win-rate traders, gaining more reference for esports event predictions. Gate is continuously expanding the application scenarios of its prediction market, providing users with prediction trading experiences covering diverse events such as popular esports competitions.
Odaily Odaily News Polymarket traders pushed the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law this year to 35% on July 17, recovering from a low of 24% on July 13. The contract had approached 74% in May, before falling to 48% in June as negotiations dragged on. Senate Republicans plan to release the final text of the CLARITY Act after meeting with US President Donald Trump. Senator Bernie Moreno said the updated text will be released after the meeting, with the target for Senate floor consideration set for the week of July 20. The bill needs 60 votes in the Senate to pass. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, requiring at least 7 Democratic votes in support. Democratic negotiators say the draft to be submitted to the chamber is not the version they agreed to. The dispute centers on ethics clauses involving Trump's business interests in the crypto industry.