News linked to both this project and an event.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
Odaily News Kalshi trader Caleb Davies stated that he had requested Kalshi to delay the settlement of a Spotify prediction market to allow the执法 team to review suspected artificially manipulated streaming data. The market focused on which artists would top the Spotify US Daily Chart, with a trading volume of $3.32 million. Davies stated that Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and reached the top of the Spotify US Chart on June 29. Kalshi's Head of Enforcement and Legal, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listens or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after issuing this response. Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the emergence of the disputed streaming data. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings," meaning that under the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29 instead of first. Subsequently, Spotify requested Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana stated that the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation; Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, rescinded the settlement, or announced compensation.
According to Protos, George Cottrell, an aide to UK Reform Party leader Nigel Farage who was previously convicted of wire fraud, had his Polymarket account (username "GCottrell93") receive a total of $8.8 million in funds in October 2024—$7 million of which came from an OKX exchange wallet (in five transactions), and another $1.83 million from a ChangeNOW wallet. These funds were subsequently used to bet on Trump winning the US election, with approximately $13 million in winnings ultimately transferred to an OKX wallet and $282,000 to ChangeNOW.
According to the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in Polymarket's "Bitcoin July Price" prediction market, BTC currently has a 75% probability of reaching $67,500, a 34% probability of reaching $70,000, and a 12% probability of reaching $72,500.Recently, Bitcoin has continued its rebound trend. According to OKX data, BTC approached $67,000 last night, with market sentiment steadily warming. Additionally, the previously bullish whale "Set Ten Big Goals First" took profits and exited early yesterday morning, but posted on X platform, stating, "The trend remains bullish; this is simply taking profits and securing gains."Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Odaily Odaily News Polymarket traders have raised the probability of Bitcoin hitting $67,500 in July to 70%, up from about 56% earlier this week. The current market probability of Bitcoin reaching $65,000 stands at 82%, while the probability of it falling below $60,000 is 13%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for the fifth consecutive trading day this week, fueling bets on higher prices. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has maintained its target interest rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, and new Chairman Kevin Warsh has shifted the central bank's communication style to purely data-dependent.
OdailyOdaily Planet Daily News The U.S. Senate has passed a resolution opposing an administrative pardon for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried. The non-binding measure states that Bankman-Fried should not receive an administrative pardon and reaffirms the Senate's commitment to the rule of law and the integrity of the U.S. financial system. The resolution was introduced by Senator Ruben Gallego on June 17, with Senator Cynthia Lummis as a co-sponsor, opposing any federal pardon for Bankman-Fried, including a presidential pardon or commutation of sentence. A simple Senate resolution does not require approval from the House of Representatives or the President and carries no legal force. Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in federal prison in March 2024 on charges of fraud and conspiracy related to the collapse of FTX in 2022. Speculation intensified after he applied for a pardon from Donald Trump in June 2026, with Department of Justice records showing the request is pending. Polymarket traders currently place the probability of Donald Trump pardoning Bankman-Fried before July 31 at less than 1%. The trading volume for this market exceeds $734,000.
According to PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring, the probability of "WTI crude oil rising to $80 by July 2026" on Polymarket has reached 47%, up 28% in 24 hours.Trump stated today that he may launch a large-scale attack on Iran. As the 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran becomes precarious, oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has "basically come to a standstill." Kpler senior oil analyst Navin Das stated that since the US and Iran reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement on June 17, the average daily number of tankers passing through has been approximately 32. This figure is nearly three times the average daily traffic between the outbreak of the conflict (February) and the signing of the agreement on June 17, though still far below pre-war levels.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket has integrated Spark, a Bitcoin Layer 2 payment protocol, allowing users to make instant deposits via the Bitcoin Lightning Network.According to the report, Spark will provide underlying payment infrastructure for Polymarket, enabling users to deposit directly with BTC, with funds arriving in seconds. Compared to traditional on-chain Bitcoin transfers, which take 30 minutes to 1 hour for confirmation, this offers faster speed, lower costs, and greater privacy. This integration is also part of Polymarket's ongoing efforts to enhance the Bitcoin payment experience, following its earlier move to support Bitcoin deposits. (Digital Assets)
According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, Polymarket trader 1two1two (0x722...59A) went from a $5.6 million profit to a $103,000 loss in 13 days. The account, created in June 2026, has a win rate of 48.3% (14/29) and a trading volume of $21.99 million. Its largest losses include $3.06 million on Portugal vs. Spain (Over 2.5), $2.64 million on Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway (No), and $748,140 on Brazil vs. Norway (Draw — Yes). Despite a maximum single profit of $3.59 million, the account has not maintained profitability.
Polymarket traders estimate a 23% probability that the U.S. government, through legislation, executive orders, export controls, or other formal actions taken before December 31, 2026, will prevent the American public from accessing major Chinese AI models. Multiple departments within the U.S. Department of Commerce have already banned employees from using Deepseek on work devices due to data security concerns, and Virginia, Texas, and New York have also imposed Deepseek device bans on state employees. (Bitcoin.com News).
according to official sources, the self-custody Web3 wallet BM Wallet has launched its prediction market feature. Users can now directly participate in real-world event predictions within the wallet, settling entirely with stablecoins. Assets never need to be withdrawn, and private keys remain under the user's control at all times. This feature integrates the prediction market Polymarket, tapping into its deep liquidity. The initial phase centers on the World Cup, while also covering sectors such as cryptocurrency and politics. It is currently available in designated regions.
据链上分析师 Onchain Lens（@OnchainLens）监测，一个仅创建两天的钱包"coldsway"在 Polymarket 上参与了三场 FIFA 世界杯竞猜，累计净亏损超 397 万美元。其中损失最惨的一注为南非对加拿大，因加拿大最终获胜，损失达 314 万美元；哥伦比亚对葡萄牙一注亦亏损 197 万美元。该钱包仅在克罗地亚对加纳的预测中获胜，盈利 106 万美元。
on-chain security analyst Specter has stated that a suspected phishing attack targeting Polymarket users is underway, with cumulative losses currently estimated at approximately $2.94 million. According to their monitoring, the attacker has transferred funds from over 11 victim wallets holding PUSD, swapping the stolen assets for ETH. Specter also reminds users to be vigilant against phishing risks and notes that the incident is still being actively tracked.
data released by a16z crypto shows prediction market trading volume has set a new all-time high for the third consecutive week. Last week, total market trading volume reached $14.4 billion for the first time, a significant increase from approximately $5–6 billion at the beginning of the year. The previous peak of around $10 billion was set just a week prior. Additionally, open interest rose to $1.6 billion, hitting a new record for the third straight week, indicating that the pace of new position opening continues to outpace closing, resulting in ever-expanding capital exposure. Notably, growth in non-sports markets—covering areas such as macroeconomics and unexpected events—has been particularly pronounced. Last week, combined trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $3.6 billion, already surpassing the total volume of all prediction market categories last year.
According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), an individual suspected of insider trading has earned a total of $24.25 million through Polymarket’s World Cup prediction market, using three wallets: “mintblade” (9.24 million USD from five consecutive wins), “GRIMDRIP” (7.6 million USD from two consecutive wins), and “endlessFate” (7.41 million USD from six wins out of nine trades). All three wallets transferred their profits via the same Binance deposit address (0xB08B...317D), suggesting they are likely controlled by the same person.
Odaily News As monitored by on-chain analyst Ember, in the early hours of this morning, the match between Spain and Cape Verde ended in a surprising draw. A new wallet spent $4.22 million on Polymarket betting that Spain would not win the match, and that Cape Verde would win under a -2.5 handicap. Ultimately, $4.22 million turned into $13.28 million, netting a profit of $9.06 million.
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
According to Cointelegraph, Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Bitbank announced that it may restrict or suspend accounts found to have deposits or withdrawals linked to prediction market platforms such as Polymarket. Bitbank stated that affected accounts may be unable to log in and will be restricted from depositing, withdrawing, and trading.
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)