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Morgan Stanley: Storage Stocks Pull Back 15% to 25%, Market Shifting from Price Hike Elasticity to Earnings Sustainability

According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley pointed out in its TMT webcast on July 14 that Asian memory stocks have pulled back 15% to 25% over the past month, while the chip sector overall traded sideways. Fundamentals have not reversed; it is the valuation framework that is shifting. Three key variables determine the direction: CSP capital expenditure expectations are 30% to 37% above consensus, with the end of July earnings season serving as the first validation window; LTAs are easing fears of a cyclical downturn, with price floors raised after more than half of contracts are locked; Yangtze Memory Technologies Fab4 and Fab5 each plan approximately 100kwpm capacity. If capital expenditure discipline is maintained, tight NAND supply and demand can continue until 2028; if capacity expansion accelerates, it becomes the biggest oversupply risk. Morgan Stanley assesses that the pricing logic for memory stocks is shifting from cyclical high volatility to structural mid-to-high returns; companies that can prove they possess sustainable profitability will command a valuation premium.

"Fed Mouthpiece": Fed’s Internal Winds Shift as Policy Path Moves from Rate-Cut Expectations to Rate-Hike Assessment

Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Mouthpiece," wrote in The Wall Street Journal that the discussion within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate path has undergone a noticeable shift. The focus is no longer primarily on when to restart rate cuts but has begun to consider under what conditions rate hikes might be necessary again. Since the Fed began releasing policy statements in 1994, disagreements over how to describe the policy direction—rather than actual rate changes—have been rare.Three regional Fed presidents, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, opposed retaining the wording "the next move is more likely a rate cut" at this week’s policy meeting, arguing that the next rate adjustment could be either a hike or a cut. Outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the committee is gradually shifting from a "rate-cut bias" to a "neutral stance" and noted that if rate hikes become necessary in the future, the Fed would first move to a neutral position before signaling increases. (WSJ)

AI-Driven Memory Supply Shortage Continues, Samsung and Other Smartphone Makers Face Price Hike Pressure in H2

According to Odaily, the persistent memory supply shortage driven by AI demand continues to exert upward pricing pressure on smartphone manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics, Apple, and Xiaomi in the second half of the year. Industry sources indicate that Samsung Electronics' upcoming Galaxy Z8 series, set to be released this month, has an increased likelihood of price increases based on storage capacity. The price of the 256GB base model is expected to remain at a similar level to its predecessor, approximately 3.05 million won, while the 512GB and 1TB models may see price increases of around 120,000 won each. This pricing strategy aims to minimize the price increase for the base model while prioritizing adjustments to higher-capacity models, which are more affected by memory cost pressures.

Morgan Stanley: Behind Apple's Across-the-Board Price Hike, It Is Actually Hedging Against Exploding Chip Costs

According to TechFlow Research, the latest report on Apple released by Morgan Stanley on July 14, 2026, shows that Apple increased prices for Mac, iPad, and accessories by 15-54% within two weeks. The underlying driver is forced cost hedging, rather than simple profit extraction. DRAM and NAND chip costs are expected to rise by 190% and 280% respectively in 2027. The chip cost for a single iPad will rise from $51 to $144, and this item alone could consume 30-40% of the gross profit.

Bybit Weekly Report: Probability of Rate Hike Rises to 60%; Peace Talks Cannot Rescue the Crypto Market; DVOL Hits All-Time Low—Caution Advised

Bybit’s latest options weekly report states that BTC rebounded after finding support at the dense $74,000 level last week and is now consolidating near $77,000. A key macro turning point: Nomura has withdrawn its rate-cut expectations, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a rate hike rising to 60%, completely breaking the “ceasefire → rate cuts → BTC rally” logic chain. Barclays, Goldman Sachs, ING, and JPMorgan all confirm that the rise in long-end yields is driven by three structural factors—debt expansion, AI-related investment, and an increase in the neutral interest rate—unrelated to geopolitical tensions. Bullish catalysts continue to accumulate (SpaceX holding 18,712 BTC, the ARMA reserve proposal, and the CLARITY Act), yet price remains unmoved. DVOL has fallen to ~35%, a historical extreme; no strategy is recommended for now—await DVOL’s recovery above 45% before entering.

"Fed Mouthpiece": Fed’s Internal Winds Shift as Policy Path Moves from Rate-Cut Expectations to Rate-Hike Assessment

Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Mouthpiece," wrote in The Wall Street Journal that the discussion within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate path has undergone a noticeable shift. The focus is no longer primarily on when to restart rate cuts but has begun to consider under what conditions rate hikes might be necessary again. Since the Fed began releasing policy statements in 1994, disagreements over how to describe the policy direction—rather than actual rate changes—have been rare.Three regional Fed presidents, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, opposed retaining the wording "the next move is more likely a rate cut" at this week’s policy meeting, arguing that the next rate adjustment could be either a hike or a cut. Outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the committee is gradually shifting from a "rate-cut bias" to a "neutral stance" and noted that if rate hikes become necessary in the future, the Fed would first move to a neutral position before signaling increases. (WSJ)

Related news

CME FedWatch Shows Probability of Fed 25-Basis-Point Rate Hike in September Rises to 61.4%

Odaily Odaily News The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, bringing the target federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00%, is 61.4%, up from 50.6% a month ago. The expectation for a 50-basis-point rate hike has dropped to 0% from 25% a week ago, and the probability of a rate cut is 0%. On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that the committee has only a single 2% inflation target and does not have a soft or implicit soft target for inflation. In prediction markets, traders on Kalshi see a 53% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September and a 44% probability of no change, with related trading volume exceeding $1.36 million. On Polymarket, related trading volume exceeds $8 million, with participants pricing in a 52% probability of a rate hike and a 46% probability of no change.

Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rate Steady, Three Officials Favored a 25 Basis Point Hike

Odaily News The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9-3 on July 29 to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, noting that economic growth remains solid and inflation remains above the 2% target. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan dissented, each favoring a 25-basis-point rate hike at this meeting. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors unanimously decided to maintain the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65% effective July 30, and the primary credit rate at 3.75%. The FOMC instructed the Open Market Desk at the New York Fed to continue conducting standing overnight repurchase agreement (repo) operations at 3.75% and overnight reverse repo operations at 3.5%, with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.

FOMC Storm Approaches, Huobi HTX to Livestream and Discuss BTC Future Market Trends

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will host a themed live stream titled "FOMC Tonight Decides the Outcome — 20% Rate Hike Probability Hard to Distinguish: Can BTC's $70,000 Option Bet Still Pay Off?" at 20:00 today. At that time, crypto KOLs such as Mao Mao Jie, Sincere Little Taoist, 0xJoker, and Mr. Misi will be invited to attend, focusing on core variables of market concern on the eve of the FOMC meeting, analyzing the macro signals behind the 20% rate hike probability, discussing the impact of USD liquidity changes on the crypto market, and combining with BTC key option positions to identify short-term market breakouts and risk turning points.

Morgan Stanley: Storage Stocks Pull Back 15% to 25%, Market Shifting from Price Hike Elasticity to Earnings Sustainability

According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley pointed out in its TMT webcast on July 14 that Asian memory stocks have pulled back 15% to 25% over the past month, while the chip sector overall traded sideways. Fundamentals have not reversed; it is the valuation framework that is shifting. Three key variables determine the direction: CSP capital expenditure expectations are 30% to 37% above consensus, with the end of July earnings season serving as the first validation window; LTAs are easing fears of a cyclical downturn, with price floors raised after more than half of contracts are locked; Yangtze Memory Technologies Fab4 and Fab5 each plan approximately 100kwpm capacity. If capital expenditure discipline is maintained, tight NAND supply and demand can continue until 2028; if capacity expansion accelerates, it becomes the biggest oversupply risk. Morgan Stanley assesses that the pricing logic for memory stocks is shifting from cyclical high volatility to structural mid-to-high returns; companies that can prove they possess sustainable profitability will command a valuation premium.

AI-Driven Memory Supply Shortage Continues, Samsung and Other Smartphone Makers Face Price Hike Pressure in H2

According to Odaily, the persistent memory supply shortage driven by AI demand continues to exert upward pricing pressure on smartphone manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics, Apple, and Xiaomi in the second half of the year. Industry sources indicate that Samsung Electronics' upcoming Galaxy Z8 series, set to be released this month, has an increased likelihood of price increases based on storage capacity. The price of the 256GB base model is expected to remain at a similar level to its predecessor, approximately 3.05 million won, while the 512GB and 1TB models may see price increases of around 120,000 won each. This pricing strategy aims to minimize the price increase for the base model while prioritizing adjustments to higher-capacity models, which are more affected by memory cost pressures.

Morgan Stanley: Behind Apple's Across-the-Board Price Hike, It Is Actually Hedging Against Exploding Chip Costs

According to TechFlow Research, the latest report on Apple released by Morgan Stanley on July 14, 2026, shows that Apple increased prices for Mac, iPad, and accessories by 15-54% within two weeks. The underlying driver is forced cost hedging, rather than simple profit extraction. DRAM and NAND chip costs are expected to rise by 190% and 280% respectively in 2027. The chip cost for a single iPad will rise from $51 to $144, and this item alone could consume 30-40% of the gross profit.