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JPMorgan: Four Reasons for a Bullish Outlook on US Stocks, September Rate Hike Decision Hinges on CPI
According to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan’s September 6, 2026 research report highlights four reasons supporting a bullish stance on US equities despite heightened volatility in interest rates, exchange rates, and oil prices: strong growth (GDP and EPS forecasts continue to be raised), interest rates are not too high (rising yields reflect economic expansion rather than monetary tightening), the US favors a weak dollar policy, and hedge fund positioning remains neutral to light. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations; however, whether to hike rates in September hinges on the September 11 CPI data, with JPMorgan projecting core CPI to rise 0.21% month-over-month. The MSCI World Index has gained 12% year-to-date, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed by only 60 basis points, and earnings growth is currently absorbing valuations.
Morgan Stanley: Storage Stocks Pull Back 15% to 25%, Market Shifting from Price Hike Elasticity to Earnings Sustainability
According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley pointed out in its TMT webcast on July 14 that Asian memory stocks have pulled back 15% to 25% over the past month, while the chip sector overall traded sideways. Fundamentals have not reversed; it is the valuation framework that is shifting. Three key variables determine the direction: CSP capital expenditure expectations are 30% to 37% above consensus, with the end of July earnings season serving as the first validation window; LTAs are easing fears of a cyclical downturn, with price floors raised after more than half of contracts are locked; Yangtze Memory Technologies Fab4 and Fab5 each plan approximately 100kwpm capacity. If capital expenditure discipline is maintained, tight NAND supply and demand can continue until 2028; if capacity expansion accelerates, it becomes the biggest oversupply risk. Morgan Stanley assesses that the pricing logic for memory stocks is shifting from cyclical high volatility to structural mid-to-high returns; companies that can prove they possess sustainable profitability will command a valuation premium.
Replaying 2022 or Repeating 1997? A Rate Hike Is Nearly Certain, but the Real Uncertainty for US Stocks Has Just Begun
Odaily News: After US August core CPI inflation heated up again, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September rose rapidly. As a rate hike this week becomes a high-probability event, the market's focus has shifted to "how US stocks will move after the rate hike."Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist at LPL Financial, analyzed six Fed tightening cycles since 1994, and the results show that the S&P 500 usually performs weakly in the short term after the first rate hike, but outcomes one year later are notably better than in the initial months.Compared with 2022, LPL believes the underlying conditions facing the US economy amid rate hikes are clearly different now, and the current macroeconomic environment is closer to the late 1990s. However, that does not mean the 1997 market scenario will reappear. LPL previously estimated that even if the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy this cycle, the overall scale of tightening is unlikely to approach the level seen from 2022 to 2023. In the previous cycle, the Fed raised rates by a cumulative 5.25 percentage points, equivalent to 21 consecutive 25-basis-point hikes. (Investopedia)
QCP: Market Has Priced In a 25 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike, Focus Shifts to Policy Guidance
QCP released a report on September 14 stating that the market has largely priced in expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with attention shifting to the language of the rate hike announcement and signals regarding the future rate path. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate of core CPI declining from 2.5% to 2.4%.Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,700 following the release of the CPI data, before recovering to around $77,600; Ethereum remained near $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $463 million last week, with net outflows slowing to $13.2 million on Friday; spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million, with single-day net inflows of $216 million on Friday.
US, UK, and Japanese Central Banks Take Center Stage This Week; Fed May See First Rate Hike in Three Years
The central banks of the US, Japan, and the UK will announce their monetary policy decisions this week, with markets focusing on whether the Federal Reserve will initiate its first interest rate hike in three years. Iran and Gulf states are negotiating shipping management arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz to address soaring crude oil prices.
Analysis: Bitcoin Shows Resilience to High Interest Rates, Market May Have Already Priced in Fed Rate Hike Expectations
the U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, exceeding expectations of 0.2%, further reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate hike next week. Analysts believe the market had already priced in ample time for a rate hike, and if the Fed raises rates as expected, the market reaction may be relatively limited. Instead, an unexpected decision to hold rates steady could trigger a larger rally in risk assets. Matt Mena, Senior Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, said historical data shows that in the 30 days following a core CPI reading above expectations, Bitcoin rose an average of 2.13%.Affected by the data, Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $78,600, up 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Mark Connors, Chief Investment Officer at Risk Dimensions, said that rising U.S. Treasury yields across the board and the simultaneous strengthening of Bitcoin and gold indicate that the market is concerned not only about the Fed's rate path, but also about inflation, government debt, and the credibility of monetary policy. (Cointelegraph)
September Policy Expectations Shift Again as Huobi HTX Livestream Focuses on BTC's Critical $80,000 Battle
According to official social media channels, Huobi HTX will host a live broadcast today at 20:00 titled “ADP Surprise, Non-Farm Payrolls Counter Expectations, September Rate Hike Hinges Solely on CPI: $80K Level for $BTC, a Bull Fortress or a Trap?” At the event, crypto KOLs including DaDa, Zhenrong Shuo, Crypto Big Brother, and Grace will join the livestream studio to discuss the latest US employment data, CPI trends, and the Federal Reserve’s September policy expectations. Integrating current market liquidity and capital sentiment, they will analyze the bull-bear dynamics around the $80,000 threshold for BTC and assess subsequent market opportunities.
JPMorgan: Four Reasons for a Bullish Outlook on US Stocks, September Rate Hike Decision Hinges on CPI
According to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan’s September 6, 2026 research report highlights four reasons supporting a bullish stance on US equities despite heightened volatility in interest rates, exchange rates, and oil prices: strong growth (GDP and EPS forecasts continue to be raised), interest rates are not too high (rising yields reflect economic expansion rather than monetary tightening), the US favors a weak dollar policy, and hedge fund positioning remains neutral to light. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations; however, whether to hike rates in September hinges on the September 11 CPI data, with JPMorgan projecting core CPI to rise 0.21% month-over-month. The MSCI World Index has gained 12% year-to-date, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed by only 60 basis points, and earnings growth is currently absorbing valuations.
QCP: Market Has Priced In a 25 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike, Focus Shifts to Policy Guidance
QCP released a report on September 14 stating that the market has largely priced in expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with attention shifting to the language of the rate hike announcement and signals regarding the future rate path. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate of core CPI declining from 2.5% to 2.4%.Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,700 following the release of the CPI data, before recovering to around $77,600; Ethereum remained near $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $463 million last week, with net outflows slowing to $13.2 million on Friday; spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million, with single-day net inflows of $216 million on Friday.
UBS Recommends Buying on Dips, Fed September Rate Hike Probability Rises to Around 60%
UBS released its latest investment strategy, advising investors to capitalize on market volatility by buying stocks on dips and establishing hedge positions during gold price pullbacks. The probability of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve has currently risen to approximately 60%.
US-Iran Conflict Escalates Sharply, Fed Governor Warns of Rate Hike
US-Iran military conflict escalates sharply as both sides exchange strikes on energy and military targets; a senior Federal Reserve governor warns of interest rate hikes, while Russia signals it will strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Sticky July PCE Data Lifts Fed Rate Hike Expectations; Iran and Oman Agree on Strait Revenue Split
July U.S. PCE price index shows inflation remains sticky, with markets raising the probability of a September Fed rate hike; Iran announces a revenue-sharing agreement with Oman on Strait of Hormuz transit fees, while Russian media discloses plans to escalate strikes against Ukraine.
Tom Lee: Probability of September Rate Hike Drops Below 40% Following Jobs Report
Odaily News – Tom Lee posted on X, stating that the market's significant "dovish" reaction to the July jobs report is another example of the market suffering from "inflation confusion syndrome." His view is that inflation is on a downward trajectory; the market had previously been impatient and overly hawkish. Following the release of the jobs report, the probability of a September rate hike has fallen below 40%, compared to 75% just two weeks ago, when many economists had advocated for an early rate hike. Do not fight the last war.
AI-Driven Memory Supply Shortage Continues, Samsung and Other Smartphone Makers Face Price Hike Pressure in H2
According to Odaily, the persistent memory supply shortage driven by AI demand continues to exert upward pricing pressure on smartphone manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics, Apple, and Xiaomi in the second half of the year. Industry sources indicate that Samsung Electronics' upcoming Galaxy Z8 series, set to be released this month, has an increased likelihood of price increases based on storage capacity. The price of the 256GB base model is expected to remain at a similar level to its predecessor, approximately 3.05 million won, while the 512GB and 1TB models may see price increases of around 120,000 won each. This pricing strategy aims to minimize the price increase for the base model while prioritizing adjustments to higher-capacity models, which are more affected by memory cost pressures.
Related news
Replaying 2022 or Repeating 1997? A Rate Hike Is Nearly Certain, but the Real Uncertainty for US Stocks Has Just Begun
Odaily News: After US August core CPI inflation heated up again, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September rose rapidly. As a rate hike this week becomes a high-probability event, the market's focus has shifted to "how US stocks will move after the rate hike."Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist at LPL Financial, analyzed six Fed tightening cycles since 1994, and the results show that the S&P 500 usually performs weakly in the short term after the first rate hike, but outcomes one year later are notably better than in the initial months.Compared with 2022, LPL believes the underlying conditions facing the US economy amid rate hikes are clearly different now, and the current macroeconomic environment is closer to the late 1990s. However, that does not mean the 1997 market scenario will reappear. LPL previously estimated that even if the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy this cycle, the overall scale of tightening is unlikely to approach the level seen from 2022 to 2023. In the previous cycle, the Fed raised rates by a cumulative 5.25 percentage points, equivalent to 21 consecutive 25-basis-point hikes. (Investopedia)
QCP: Market Has Priced In a 25 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike, Focus Shifts to Policy Guidance
QCP released a report on September 14 stating that the market has largely priced in expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with attention shifting to the language of the rate hike announcement and signals regarding the future rate path. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate of core CPI declining from 2.5% to 2.4%.Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,700 following the release of the CPI data, before recovering to around $77,600; Ethereum remained near $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $463 million last week, with net outflows slowing to $13.2 million on Friday; spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million, with single-day net inflows of $216 million on Friday.
Middle East Situation, ECB Rate Hike, and Anthropic's Statement
Covers Middle East geopolitical maneuvering, US-Canada trade developments, and the ECB's warning on interest rate hike risks tied to oil prices, while Anthropic's CEO calls for slowing down AI model capabilities to ensure safety.
US, UK, and Japanese Central Banks Take Center Stage This Week; Fed May See First Rate Hike in Three Years
The central banks of the US, Japan, and the UK will announce their monetary policy decisions this week, with markets focusing on whether the Federal Reserve will initiate its first interest rate hike in three years. Iran and Gulf states are negotiating shipping management arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz to address soaring crude oil prices.
Markets Expect Fed Rate Hike Next Week, Cumulative Hike Expectations Raised to Three
Investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to conduct its first interest rate hike in three years next week. Since a single rate increase is unlikely to curb inflation, markets have raised expectations for cumulative rate hikes before June next year to at least three.
Analysis: Bitcoin Shows Resilience to High Interest Rates, Market May Have Already Priced in Fed Rate Hike Expectations
the U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, exceeding expectations of 0.2%, further reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate hike next week. Analysts believe the market had already priced in ample time for a rate hike, and if the Fed raises rates as expected, the market reaction may be relatively limited. Instead, an unexpected decision to hold rates steady could trigger a larger rally in risk assets. Matt Mena, Senior Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, said historical data shows that in the 30 days following a core CPI reading above expectations, Bitcoin rose an average of 2.13%.Affected by the data, Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $78,600, up 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Mark Connors, Chief Investment Officer at Risk Dimensions, said that rising U.S. Treasury yields across the board and the simultaneous strengthening of Bitcoin and gold indicate that the market is concerned not only about the Fed's rate path, but also about inflation, government debt, and the credibility of monetary policy. (Cointelegraph)