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JPMorgan: Four Reasons for a Bullish Outlook on US Stocks, September Rate Hike Decision Hinges on CPI

According to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan’s September 6, 2026 research report highlights four reasons supporting a bullish stance on US equities despite heightened volatility in interest rates, exchange rates, and oil prices: strong growth (GDP and EPS forecasts continue to be raised), interest rates are not too high (rising yields reflect economic expansion rather than monetary tightening), the US favors a weak dollar policy, and hedge fund positioning remains neutral to light. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations; however, whether to hike rates in September hinges on the September 11 CPI data, with JPMorgan projecting core CPI to rise 0.21% month-over-month. The MSCI World Index has gained 12% year-to-date, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed by only 60 basis points, and earnings growth is currently absorbing valuations.

Morgan Stanley: Storage Stocks Pull Back 15% to 25%, Market Shifting from Price Hike Elasticity to Earnings Sustainability

According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley pointed out in its TMT webcast on July 14 that Asian memory stocks have pulled back 15% to 25% over the past month, while the chip sector overall traded sideways. Fundamentals have not reversed; it is the valuation framework that is shifting. Three key variables determine the direction: CSP capital expenditure expectations are 30% to 37% above consensus, with the end of July earnings season serving as the first validation window; LTAs are easing fears of a cyclical downturn, with price floors raised after more than half of contracts are locked; Yangtze Memory Technologies Fab4 and Fab5 each plan approximately 100kwpm capacity. If capital expenditure discipline is maintained, tight NAND supply and demand can continue until 2028; if capacity expansion accelerates, it becomes the biggest oversupply risk. Morgan Stanley assesses that the pricing logic for memory stocks is shifting from cyclical high volatility to structural mid-to-high returns; companies that can prove they possess sustainable profitability will command a valuation premium.

Bitcoin Rebounds Above $82,000 as Fed's October Rate Hike Odds Fall to 12%

Odaily Report: Bitcoin News posted on X that Bitcoin rose about 2.4%, hitting a five-day high near $82,830 and rebounding from a low near $80,600 caused by weekend selling. Market expectations for another Fed rate hike have declined significantly, with traders now pricing in about a 12% probability that the Fed will raise rates at its October 28 meeting. Higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data last week had briefly sparked concerns about further monetary tightening; meanwhile, falling oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields improved investor sentiment.

December rate hike expectations shake markets, Huobi HTX tonight’s livestream focuses on key BTC price action

According to official social media announcements, HTX will host a live stream today at 20:00 titled "Market Bets on Another Rate Hike in December: Can BTC Withstand This Wave of Shocks?". During the event, crypto KOLs including Maomaojie, AlanSun, Aiden, and Crypto.0824 will conduct an in-depth discussion on expectations surrounding Fed monetary policy, macro liquidity shifts, and recent BTC market trends. The session will focus on analyzing the potential impact of intensifying December rate hike expectations on the crypto market, along with BTC’s key support levels, long-short dynamics, and the likely trajectory of future price action under macroeconomic headwinds, providing investors with a multi-dimensional reference to gauge market trends.

Federal Reserve Minutes Send Hawkish Signals: Rate Hike Possible by Year-End

The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that most officials support raising interest rates again by year-end, but market expectations for action in October have clearly cooled. The current rise in long-end U.S. Treasury yields is viewed as an alternative policy tightening measure, with investors monitoring whether the Fed will intervene in the bond market.

Fed Minutes: Most Officials Expect One More Rate Hike Before Year-End

Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed that most officials expected to raise the target range for the federal funds rate again before the end of this year to address inflation that remains persistently above target. Policymakers emphasized that future decisions will depend on newly released economic data and the balance of risks.

Fed Minutes Show Officials Divided on Rate Hike Rationale in September

The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes revealed that policymakers were divided over the rationale for rate hikes. Some officials argued for curbing energy price shocks, while another group focused on preventing demand-driven inflation. Most anticipated that rates could be hiked again before year-end.

Fed's First Rate Hike in Three Years: Megaphone Breaks Down Policy Shift

The Federal Reserve implements its first interest rate hike in three years, with "Charts of the Fed" outlining the complete policy shift by Wachter and warning of potential risks ahead.

Bitcoin Rebounds Above $82,000 as Fed's October Rate Hike Odds Fall to 12%

Odaily Report: Bitcoin News posted on X that Bitcoin rose about 2.4%, hitting a five-day high near $82,830 and rebounding from a low near $80,600 caused by weekend selling. Market expectations for another Fed rate hike have declined significantly, with traders now pricing in about a 12% probability that the Fed will raise rates at its October 28 meeting. Higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data last week had briefly sparked concerns about further monetary tightening; meanwhile, falling oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields improved investor sentiment.

QCP: Market Has Priced In a 25 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike, Focus Shifts to Policy Guidance

QCP released a report on September 14 stating that the market has largely priced in expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with attention shifting to the language of the rate hike announcement and signals regarding the future rate path. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate of core CPI declining from 2.5% to 2.4%.Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,700 following the release of the CPI data, before recovering to around $77,600; Ethereum remained near $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $463 million last week, with net outflows slowing to $13.2 million on Friday; spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million, with single-day net inflows of $216 million on Friday.

Fed's Collins: May Need to Hike Rates Again This Year

Odaily reports: Boston Fed President Collins said interest rates may need to be raised further before the end of this year to curb inflation. Regarding whether further rate hikes are needed and the timing of such hikes, she said the judgment will depend on upcoming economic data. Collins expects the U.S. economy to continue growing and the labor market to remain near full employment. She said: "In this scenario, as continued efficiency gains support the balance between demand and supply and help cool inflation, inflation will gradually fall back to 2%." But she warned that two other scenarios are almost equally likely. AI demand could drive an investment boom larger than expected, further boosting household spending, overheating the labor market, and keeping inflation persistently above the Fed's target. In addition, price pressures from tariffs and energy prices, especially if the Iran war continues, could prolong inflation challenges. Collins said: "It is important to observe whether high inflation remains mainly confined to energy and AI infrastructure-related sectors while price growth continues to slow in other areas, or whether signs of broadening price pressures are emerging." (Jinshi)

Federal Reserve Minutes Send Hawkish Signals: Rate Hike Possible by Year-End

The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that most officials support raising interest rates again by year-end, but market expectations for action in October have clearly cooled. The current rise in long-end U.S. Treasury yields is viewed as an alternative policy tightening measure, with investors monitoring whether the Fed will intervene in the bond market.

Fed Minutes: Unanimous Support for 25-Basis-Point Rate Hike, Majority Plans Further Rate Increase This Year

The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that all participating members unanimously supported a 25-basis-point rate hike, and most members believed it was appropriate to raise interest rates again before the end of the year.

QCP: Fed Rate Hike Probability Drops to 22%, BTC Must Hold Above $87,200 to Confirm Uptrend

According to QCP Group's market report, the macro narrative has completely reversed within three weeks, with the consensus for another rate hike in October fully priced out and expectations for a Fed pause intensifying. September US non-farm payrolls increased by just 29,000, significantly below the forecast of 84,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while wage growth decelerated to 3.0% (the lowest pace since May 2021). This soft employment data supports the outlook for an October rate hold, pushing the probability of a hike down to approximately 22%. Bitcoin is currently trading at $86,700, with technical support at $85,000/$83,000 and resistance at $87,200/$90,000; Ethereum is trading at $2,725, with support at $2,650/$2,550 and resistance at $2,735–$2,800. The key event for this week is the release of the FOMC minutes at 2:00 AM Beijing Time on October 8, with markets focusing on whether hawkish dissent emerges and the pricing direction ahead of the CPI data on October 14.

Fed Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points, Dot Plot Suggests Possible Additional Hike This Year

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, moving the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The latest dot plot shows that 16 out of 18 officials support raising rates again within the year.

Fed September Interest Rate Decision Outlook: Market Bets on 25 Basis Point Hike

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month. Key highlights of the meeting include voting splits, adjustments to the dot plot, and guidance on the inflation trajectory and future policy from Chair Warsh's press conference.

Related news

RBNZ Decision Preview: 25bps Rate Hike All but Certain

Multiple institutions expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise interest rates by 25 basis points today as inflation rises to 3.7%. Views remain divided on the subsequent tightening path, with some forecasting rates reaching 3.50%, while others project a peak of 3.75%.

Goldman Sachs: FOMC to Skip Rate Hike in October, December to Be Last

Goldman Sachs believes that the October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will skip a rate hike, with the second and final increase scheduled for December.

Higher-Than-Expected Inflation: HTX to Live Stream Discussion on BTC Long-Short Battle Amid Rate Hike Risks

According to official social media announcements, HTX will host a live stream today at 20:00 titled “The Battle for $80K BTC: Are Bulls Buying the Dip or Are Shorts Harvesting?” During the session, crypto KOLs including Zhengrong Shuo, Damo Ge, Crypto.0824, and Ray Lanyangyang will discuss the long-short dynamics around BTC at the $80,000 mark. Drawing on the macroeconomic landscape, capital flows, and market sentiment, they will analyze support strength at key price levels, potential rebound signals, and downside risks. The event will also facilitate discussions on position management and risk response strategies during market volatility from the perspective of retail investors.

Bitcoin Rebounds Above $82,000 as Fed's October Rate Hike Odds Fall to 12%

Odaily Report: Bitcoin News posted on X that Bitcoin rose about 2.4%, hitting a five-day high near $82,830 and rebounding from a low near $80,600 caused by weekend selling. Market expectations for another Fed rate hike have declined significantly, with traders now pricing in about a 12% probability that the Fed will raise rates at its October 28 meeting. Higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data last week had briefly sparked concerns about further monetary tightening; meanwhile, falling oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields improved investor sentiment.

CPI Disrupts US Stocks, Waller to Address Rate Hike Risks

The unexpected surge in inflation ends U.S. stocks' 53-trading-day calm streak, as Waller prepares to make public remarks ahead of the Fed's quiet period, with markets closely watching his comments on inflation risks and gradual rate hikes.

Rising US Inflation, Breakthrough in Negotiations at Chile's Largest Copper Mine

Rising U.S. Inflation Reignites Rate Hike Expectations; Breakthrough in Labor Negotiations at Chile's Largest Copper Mine