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Odaily News: After US August core CPI inflation heated up again, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September rose rapidly. As a rate hike this week becomes a high-probability event, the market's focus has shifted to "how US stocks will move after the rate hike."Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist at LPL Financial, analyzed six Fed tightening cycles since 1994, and the results show that the S&P 500 usually performs weakly in the short term after the first rate hike, but outcomes one year later are notably better than in the initial months.Compared with 2022, LPL believes the underlying conditions facing the US economy amid rate hikes are clearly different now, and the current macroeconomic environment is closer to the late 1990s. However, that does not mean the 1997 market scenario will reappear. LPL previously estimated that even if the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy this cycle, the overall scale of tightening is unlikely to approach the level seen from 2022 to 2023. In the previous cycle, the Fed raised rates by a cumulative 5.25 percentage points, equivalent to 21 consecutive 25-basis-point hikes. (Investopedia)
QCP released a report on September 14 stating that the market has largely priced in expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with attention shifting to the language of the rate hike announcement and signals regarding the future rate path. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate of core CPI declining from 2.5% to 2.4%.Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,700 following the release of the CPI data, before recovering to around $77,600; Ethereum remained near $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $463 million last week, with net outflows slowing to $13.2 million on Friday; spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million, with single-day net inflows of $216 million on Friday.
The central banks of the US, Japan, and the UK will announce their monetary policy decisions this week, with markets focusing on whether the Federal Reserve will initiate its first interest rate hike in three years. Iran and Gulf states are negotiating shipping management arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz to address soaring crude oil prices.
the U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, exceeding expectations of 0.2%, further reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate hike next week. Analysts believe the market had already priced in ample time for a rate hike, and if the Fed raises rates as expected, the market reaction may be relatively limited. Instead, an unexpected decision to hold rates steady could trigger a larger rally in risk assets. Matt Mena, Senior Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, said historical data shows that in the 30 days following a core CPI reading above expectations, Bitcoin rose an average of 2.13%.Affected by the data, Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $78,600, up 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Mark Connors, Chief Investment Officer at Risk Dimensions, said that rising U.S. Treasury yields across the board and the simultaneous strengthening of Bitcoin and gold indicate that the market is concerned not only about the Fed's rate path, but also about inflation, government debt, and the credibility of monetary policy. (Cointelegraph)
According to official social media channels, Huobi HTX will host a live broadcast today at 20:00 titled “ADP Surprise, Non-Farm Payrolls Counter Expectations, September Rate Hike Hinges Solely on CPI: $80K Level for $BTC, a Bull Fortress or a Trap?” At the event, crypto KOLs including DaDa, Zhenrong Shuo, Crypto Big Brother, and Grace will join the livestream studio to discuss the latest US employment data, CPI trends, and the Federal Reserve’s September policy expectations. Integrating current market liquidity and capital sentiment, they will analyze the bull-bear dynamics around the $80,000 threshold for BTC and assess subsequent market opportunities.
According to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan’s September 6, 2026 research report highlights four reasons supporting a bullish stance on US equities despite heightened volatility in interest rates, exchange rates, and oil prices: strong growth (GDP and EPS forecasts continue to be raised), interest rates are not too high (rising yields reflect economic expansion rather than monetary tightening), the US favors a weak dollar policy, and hedge fund positioning remains neutral to light. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations; however, whether to hike rates in September hinges on the September 11 CPI data, with JPMorgan projecting core CPI to rise 0.21% month-over-month. The MSCI World Index has gained 12% year-to-date, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed by only 60 basis points, and earnings growth is currently absorbing valuations.
According to Chaoxiang Research, a September 4, 2026 research report from BofA Securities notes that Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole and Governor Waller’s dovish remarks create a communication paradox. Drawing on the "Cohen Day or Bernanke Day" analogy, Warsh suggested the rate-hike path could pivot toward a more aggressive Cohen trajectory, offering further directional guidance to repair credibility damage from July, while Waller freely outlined a state-dependent policy rule. BofA believes that the clearer the explanation of the rule, the less necessity there is to steer the market; greater transparency equates to fewer commitments. BofA anticipates the ECB will conclude its tightening cycle after a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, pivoting to rate cuts in 2027. The UK’s 2026 growth forecast has been revised upward to 1.2%, though energy shocks sustain the risk of rate hikes at the November, December, and February meetings. US Treasuries have breached $40 trillion, with interest expenses now surpassing defense and healthcare spending; the debt feedback loop represents a gradually accumulating process. The Philippines’ fiscal deficit may expand to 6.1% of GDP in 2026, the Czech Republic could hike rates at most one more time, and Poland will hold rates steady. Divergence across the global macro landscape remains the overarching theme.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16 has risen to 57%, with the target rate range potentially rising to 3.75% to 4%; the probability of maintaining the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% stands at 43%.On August 21, the probability of a rate hike was 39.9%, which rose to 57% after the Jackson Hole speech on August 28, and market bets on a September rate cut have essentially disappeared.Polymarket data shows that the probability of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged is 52%, while the probability of a hike is 48%, with related trading volume exceeding $66.6 million. Kalshi data shows that the probabilities of holding rates steady and hiking are 52% and 48%, respectively, with related trading volume exceeding $23.8 million.In his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that the Fed will adhere to its 2% Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index inflation target, and noted that his commitment is to discipline rather than specific decisions. Data shows that the 12-month PCE inflation rate is 3.7%, and the 6-month reading is 4.1%. (Bitcoin.com News)
Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Mouthpiece," wrote in The Wall Street Journal that the discussion within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate path has undergone a noticeable shift. The focus is no longer primarily on when to restart rate cuts but has begun to consider under what conditions rate hikes might be necessary again. Since the Fed began releasing policy statements in 1994, disagreements over how to describe the policy direction—rather than actual rate changes—have been rare.Three regional Fed presidents, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, opposed retaining the wording "the next move is more likely a rate cut" at this week’s policy meeting, arguing that the next rate adjustment could be either a hike or a cut. Outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the committee is gradually shifting from a "rate-cut bias" to a "neutral stance" and noted that if rate hikes become necessary in the future, the Fed would first move to a neutral position before signaling increases. (WSJ)