News linked to both this project and an event.
Bybit’s latest options weekly report states that BTC rebounded after finding support at the dense $74,000 level last week and is now consolidating near $77,000. A key macro turning point: Nomura has withdrawn its rate-cut expectations, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a rate hike rising to 60%, completely breaking the “ceasefire → rate cuts → BTC rally” logic chain. Barclays, Goldman Sachs, ING, and JPMorgan all confirm that the rise in long-end yields is driven by three structural factors—debt expansion, AI-related investment, and an increase in the neutral interest rate—unrelated to geopolitical tensions. Bullish catalysts continue to accumulate (SpaceX holding 18,712 BTC, the ARMA reserve proposal, and the CLARITY Act), yet price remains unmoved. DVOL has fallen to ~35%, a historical extreme; no strategy is recommended for now—await DVOL’s recovery above 45% before entering.
Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Mouthpiece," wrote in The Wall Street Journal that the discussion within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate path has undergone a noticeable shift. The focus is no longer primarily on when to restart rate cuts but has begun to consider under what conditions rate hikes might be necessary again. Since the Fed began releasing policy statements in 1994, disagreements over how to describe the policy direction—rather than actual rate changes—have been rare.Three regional Fed presidents, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, opposed retaining the wording "the next move is more likely a rate cut" at this week’s policy meeting, arguing that the next rate adjustment could be either a hike or a cut. Outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the committee is gradually shifting from a "rate-cut bias" to a "neutral stance" and noted that if rate hikes become necessary in the future, the Fed would first move to a neutral position before signaling increases. (WSJ)