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According to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan’s September 6, 2026 research report highlights four reasons supporting a bullish stance on US equities despite heightened volatility in interest rates, exchange rates, and oil prices: strong growth (GDP and EPS forecasts continue to be raised), interest rates are not too high (rising yields reflect economic expansion rather than monetary tightening), the US favors a weak dollar policy, and hedge fund positioning remains neutral to light. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations; however, whether to hike rates in September hinges on the September 11 CPI data, with JPMorgan projecting core CPI to rise 0.21% month-over-month. The MSCI World Index has gained 12% year-to-date, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed by only 60 basis points, and earnings growth is currently absorbing valuations.
According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley pointed out in its TMT webcast on July 14 that Asian memory stocks have pulled back 15% to 25% over the past month, while the chip sector overall traded sideways. Fundamentals have not reversed; it is the valuation framework that is shifting. Three key variables determine the direction: CSP capital expenditure expectations are 30% to 37% above consensus, with the end of July earnings season serving as the first validation window; LTAs are easing fears of a cyclical downturn, with price floors raised after more than half of contracts are locked; Yangtze Memory Technologies Fab4 and Fab5 each plan approximately 100kwpm capacity. If capital expenditure discipline is maintained, tight NAND supply and demand can continue until 2028; if capacity expansion accelerates, it becomes the biggest oversupply risk. Morgan Stanley assesses that the pricing logic for memory stocks is shifting from cyclical high volatility to structural mid-to-high returns; companies that can prove they possess sustainable profitability will command a valuation premium.