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Analysis: Micron May Be Entering a New Valuation Structure Logic of "Higher Earnings, Higher Valuation"
Odaily reports, Deep Value Memetics posted an analysis on X platform, pointing out that Micron Technology may currently be exhibiting an atypical semiconductor valuation structure: as earnings per share (EPS) rise, the valuation multiple the market assigns is simultaneously expanding.Currently, Micron trades at approximately 22 times PE, below the S&P 500 (SPY) average of about 22 times, and also significantly lower than the semiconductor index (SOX) at roughly 26 times. In previous cycles, analysts typically assigned lower valuation multiples during the peak earnings phase. However, as the "de-risking" process advances, this "show-me" narrative is shifting. The market may be entering a new phase of "EPS growth → valuation multiple expansion," leading to exponential valuation revaluation. If EPS reaches $200 and is assigned a 20 times valuation, Micron's stock price could point toward the $4,000 level.
Analysis: Micron May Break the Traditional Semiconductor Pricing Framework and Enter a New Logic of “Higher Profits, Higher Valuation”
According to an analysis published by Deep Value Memetics, Micron Technology may currently be exhibiting an atypical semiconductor valuation structure: its earnings per share (EPS) are rising while its market valuation multiple is simultaneously expanding.
Options market pricing suggests less than a 50% probability that SpaceX will rise to become the world’s most valuable company, and it may take years to achieve such a leap.
According to CNBC, after listing on the Nasdaq at an approximate valuation of $2.6 trillion, SpaceX quickly became the world’s fifth-largest publicly traded company and entered a market-cap ranking race with Amazon. However, pricing in the options market suggests it may take considerable time for SpaceX to climb into the global top three—or even claim the No. 1 spot. Currently, SpaceX’s market capitalization remains significantly below that of third-place Alphabet and second-place Apple—both valued above $4.4 trillion. To overtake them and become the world’s second-largest company by market cap (just behind NVIDIA), SpaceX’s stock price would need to rise roughly 70% to $340 per share. Based on implied probability models derived from options-market pricing, the likelihood that SpaceX reaches this target price before July 2028 stands at approximately 50%. If the goal is to become the world’s largest company by market cap—surpassing NVIDIA—the options market assigns a roughly 38% probability of achieving this by June 2028, rising to about 41% by year-end 2028. Analysts note that options prices reflect the collective market expectation regarding future trajectories. Higher-strike options carry an elevated uncertainty premium, indicating that—even though SpaceX possesses a compelling long-term growth narrative—reaching the pinnacle of market capitalization is still viewed as a high-difficulty, long-duration endeavor.
Delphi Digital: Strategy's Bitcoin Accumulation Has Entered a Higher-Cost Phase
Delphi Digital stated that Strategy has primarily relied on issuing stocks at high premiums and low-cost convertible bonds over the past years to secure funds for continuously increasing its Bitcoin holdings. However, this financing window is now essentially closed.Delphi points out that common stock financing is currently constrained by the Market-Adjusted Net Asset Value (mNAV), and new convertible bond issuance has also been suspended. STRC has thus become its primary financing channel. Since STRC has a lower repayment priority in the capital structure compared to convertible bonds and preferred shares, it requires a high yield of approximately 11.5% to compensate investors for the impairment risk they bear.Delphi believes that Strategy is currently continuing its Bitcoin accumulation plan by paying higher financing costs, buying time to address the large debt repayments maturing in 2028.
Morningstar: Nvidia's Fair Value Estimate Set at $280 Per Share, 44% Higher Than Current Levels
Odaily News: Investment research firm Morningstar stated in a report on July 30 that it has set Nvidia's fair value estimate at $280 per share, 44% higher than the current level of approximately $194. The firm believes that Nvidia's 17% decline since mid-May has begun to diverge from its fair value estimate.Morningstar also assigned Nvidia a "very high" uncertainty rating. The risks it listed include the possibility of hyperscale cloud providers developing their own AI hardware in the future, as well as related customers cutting spending in response to investor demands.Morningstar Senior Equity Analyst Brian Colello stated that the likelihood of strong AI capital expenditure in the near and medium term remains high, and Nvidia's growth prospects are being underestimated. He also noted that the stock appears to exhibit undervaluation characteristics.
Wintermute Weekly Report: CPI Falls More Than Expected Amid Escalating Iran Tensions, BTC Closes Higher Against Trend to Become Week's Strongest Risk Asset
According to Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, the largest single-month drop since April 2020, overall inflation decreased from 4.2% to 3.5%, the market immediately priced in a hold for the July FOMC, and the probability of a rate hike in September also dropped from over 75% to 63%. However, the US restarted a naval blockade on Iranian ports and conducted air strikes for the fourth consecutive night, Brent crude surged 15.54% in a single week, reaching a high of $87 per barrel, pressure for energy inflation to rebound is accumulating, casting doubt on the sustainability of this CPI decline. Meanwhile, China's Moonshot released the open-source model Kimi K3, claiming performance comparable to frontier models from OpenAI and Anthropic, directly impacting the AI compute narrative, TSMC fell 7% in a single day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded its worst weekly performance in 15 months, the Nasdaq dropped 4.16%, and Nvidia temporarily ceded the top spot in global market cap to Apple. The crypto market, however, strengthened against the trend, becoming the best-performing risk asset of the week. Within minutes of the CPI data release, BTC surged from around $62,000 to $64,900, ETH jumped 7% in a single day to $1,884, CoinGlass data showed approximately $134 million in short positions were liquidated within the first hour. BTC ETF
Citrini Raises DRAM Price Forecast: Q3 Average Price May Rise 21% QoQ, Higher Than TrendForce Forecast
Citrini analyst Jukan stated in a post that, according to the latest channel research, the global DRAM market average selling price (ASP) for the third quarter is expected to rise 21% quarter-over-quarter. This expectation is higher than TrendForce's previous forecast of a 13% to 18% increase in traditional DRAM prices and an overall increase of 8% to 13% including HBM.
Lenovo: DRAM and NAND Price Increases Will Become the New Normal, Continuing Beyond 2030
: Citrini analyst jukan posted on X platform, stating that Lenovo considers memory price increases the "new normal." DRAM and NAND flash memory prices have entered a structural upward cycle. Even if major suppliers continue to expand production, prices are unlikely to return to early 2025 levels. Higher costs are being passed through the entire industry. In the future, various electronic devices, including PCs and smartphones, are expected to face continued price pressure, with higher prices becoming the "new normal" after 2030.
Analysis: Micron May Be Entering a New Valuation Structure Logic of "Higher Earnings, Higher Valuation"
Odaily reports, Deep Value Memetics posted an analysis on X platform, pointing out that Micron Technology may currently be exhibiting an atypical semiconductor valuation structure: as earnings per share (EPS) rise, the valuation multiple the market assigns is simultaneously expanding.Currently, Micron trades at approximately 22 times PE, below the S&P 500 (SPY) average of about 22 times, and also significantly lower than the semiconductor index (SOX) at roughly 26 times. In previous cycles, analysts typically assigned lower valuation multiples during the peak earnings phase. However, as the "de-risking" process advances, this "show-me" narrative is shifting. The market may be entering a new phase of "EPS growth → valuation multiple expansion," leading to exponential valuation revaluation. If EPS reaches $200 and is assigned a 20 times valuation, Micron's stock price could point toward the $4,000 level.
Analysis: On-chain data sends bearish signals, Bitcoin rebound faces sustained selling pressure
Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has entered a deeper correction phase, dropping to a low of $59,200 on June 5, a cumulative 53% decline from its all-time high in October 2025. This decline is primarily driven by record outflows from spot ETFs, derivative deleveraging, and sustained pressure from a high-interest-rate macroeconomic environment. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note currently remains above 4.45%, further dampening market expectations for a Fed rate cut.On-chain and fund flow data suggest the current market is closer to a "distribution phase" than "panic selling." The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has turned significantly negative after strong accumulation from April to May, indicating that recent buyers are steadily exiting. Meanwhile, the cost basis for short-term holders has fallen below the True Market Mean of $77,800, meaning a large number of new investors are in unrealized loss positions, creating significant selling pressure for any potential rebound. As the price approaches the overall realized cost basis of around $53,900, the characteristic of reducing positions on bounces is becoming more pronounced.At the macro level, the US economy continues to grow, but inflation is eroding real household income. The job market remains robust, with job openings hitting a nearly two-year high and continued job creation exceeding replacement levels. Sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing, construction, and leisure and hospitality are all expanding. However, inflation is expected to continue outpacing wage growth, leading to a decline in real purchasing power and presenting the Fed with a more complex balance between maintaining employment and controlling inflation.The key driver of current market trends has shifted to real yields. Driven by rising energy prices and geopolitical risks, inflation expectations are heating up, pushing both nominal and real yields on US Treasuries higher. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, prompting investors to reassess their allocation to risk assets. Bitcoin has been the first to feel the impact, with US spot ETFs experiencing their largest outflows since launch. The market has also shifted from betting on rate cuts to pricing in the risk of "higher for longer" interest rates. Bitfinex Alpha believes that, in the current phase, the trajectory of real yields has become the most important variable influencing performance in both traditional financial and digital asset markets.Despite short-term pressure, the institutionalization process continues. The report notes that Securitize's approval to list on the New York Stock Exchange signals that tokenization infrastructure is further integrating into the traditional financial system. Concurrently, the US GENIUS Act is advancing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, bringing issuers under compliance requirements similar to those for traditional financial institutions. The institutio
Wintermute Weekly Report: CPI Falls More Than Expected Amid Escalating Iran Tensions, BTC Closes Higher Against Trend to Become Week's Strongest Risk Asset
According to Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, the largest single-month drop since April 2020, overall inflation decreased from 4.2% to 3.5%, the market immediately priced in a hold for the July FOMC, and the probability of a rate hike in September also dropped from over 75% to 63%. However, the US restarted a naval blockade on Iranian ports and conducted air strikes for the fourth consecutive night, Brent crude surged 15.54% in a single week, reaching a high of $87 per barrel, pressure for energy inflation to rebound is accumulating, casting doubt on the sustainability of this CPI decline. Meanwhile, China's Moonshot released the open-source model Kimi K3, claiming performance comparable to frontier models from OpenAI and Anthropic, directly impacting the AI compute narrative, TSMC fell 7% in a single day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded its worst weekly performance in 15 months, the Nasdaq dropped 4.16%, and Nvidia temporarily ceded the top spot in global market cap to Apple. The crypto market, however, strengthened against the trend, becoming the best-performing risk asset of the week. Within minutes of the CPI data release, BTC surged from around $62,000 to $64,900, ETH jumped 7% in a single day to $1,884, CoinGlass data showed approximately $134 million in short positions were liquidated within the first hour. BTC ETF
predict.fun launches Up/Down Market Maker Rebates: Higher rebate rates than Polymarket, with real-time settlement
: Prediction market platform predict.fun has announced that all Up/Down markets now feature a Maker order rebate mechanism. Users who complete trades via limit orders can receive a 25% rebate on Maker fees.Compared to Polymarket, predict.fun's Maker rebate offers two key advantages that are more direct: a higher rebate rate, and real-time settlement immediately after the trade, without waiting for finalization.For high-frequency traders, professional market makers, and users who frequently employ limit orders, real-time rebates allow for faster capital release, reducing the continuous impact of fees on trading profits. The higher rebate rate also means that as trading frequency and volume increase, the actual cost savings become more significant.This mechanism now covers all Up/Down markets on predict.fun. Users do not need to register or apply separately; rebates for qualifying orders will be automatically credited to the account upon execution.
Drift Protocol Clarifies Redemption Mechanism: Early Exit at a Discount, or Wait for Higher Recovery Value
Drift Protocol released an explanation of its redemption mechanism, stating that users may redeem at any time after the redemption window opens. However, early redemptions will be fulfilled at the current pool’s proportional share, resulting in a recovery value lower than the full claim amount. Conversely, holders who delay redemption may receive a higher recovery price as the pool’s size grows. The protocol emphasizes that this mechanism aims to balance liquidity with the distribution of returns to long-term holders.
BIT: ETF Funds Continue Inflow, Bitcoin Edges Higher Gradually
Odaily Odaily News: BIT Official's daily chart analysis indicates that spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, with institutional buying power accumulating steadily and providing support for prices.It notes that Strategy has invested approximately $11 billion this year to increase its Bitcoin holdings. The combination of ETF inflows and corporate buying is helping to strengthen market absorption capacity. The analysis suggests that, in the absence of significant risk event disruptions, the current market structure remains supportive of Bitcoin's gradual upward trend.
Related news
Morningstar: Nvidia's Fair Value Estimate Set at $280 Per Share, 44% Higher Than Current Levels
Odaily News: Investment research firm Morningstar stated in a report on July 30 that it has set Nvidia's fair value estimate at $280 per share, 44% higher than the current level of approximately $194. The firm believes that Nvidia's 17% decline since mid-May has begun to diverge from its fair value estimate.Morningstar also assigned Nvidia a "very high" uncertainty rating. The risks it listed include the possibility of hyperscale cloud providers developing their own AI hardware in the future, as well as related customers cutting spending in response to investor demands.Morningstar Senior Equity Analyst Brian Colello stated that the likelihood of strong AI capital expenditure in the near and medium term remains high, and Nvidia's growth prospects are being underestimated. He also noted that the stock appears to exhibit undervaluation characteristics.
Wintermute Weekly Report: CPI Falls More Than Expected Amid Escalating Iran Tensions, BTC Closes Higher Against Trend to Become Week's Strongest Risk Asset
According to Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, the largest single-month drop since April 2020, overall inflation decreased from 4.2% to 3.5%, the market immediately priced in a hold for the July FOMC, and the probability of a rate hike in September also dropped from over 75% to 63%. However, the US restarted a naval blockade on Iranian ports and conducted air strikes for the fourth consecutive night, Brent crude surged 15.54% in a single week, reaching a high of $87 per barrel, pressure for energy inflation to rebound is accumulating, casting doubt on the sustainability of this CPI decline. Meanwhile, China's Moonshot released the open-source model Kimi K3, claiming performance comparable to frontier models from OpenAI and Anthropic, directly impacting the AI compute narrative, TSMC fell 7% in a single day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded its worst weekly performance in 15 months, the Nasdaq dropped 4.16%, and Nvidia temporarily ceded the top spot in global market cap to Apple. The crypto market, however, strengthened against the trend, becoming the best-performing risk asset of the week. Within minutes of the CPI data release, BTC surged from around $62,000 to $64,900, ETH jumped 7% in a single day to $1,884, CoinGlass data showed approximately $134 million in short positions were liquidated within the first hour. BTC ETF
Citrini Raises DRAM Price Forecast: Q3 Average Price May Rise 21% QoQ, Higher Than TrendForce Forecast
Citrini analyst Jukan stated in a post that, according to the latest channel research, the global DRAM market average selling price (ASP) for the third quarter is expected to rise 21% quarter-over-quarter. This expectation is higher than TrendForce's previous forecast of a 13% to 18% increase in traditional DRAM prices and an overall increase of 8% to 13% including HBM.
predict.fun launches Up/Down Market Maker Rebates: Higher rebate rates than Polymarket, with real-time settlement
: Prediction market platform predict.fun has announced that all Up/Down markets now feature a Maker order rebate mechanism. Users who complete trades via limit orders can receive a 25% rebate on Maker fees.Compared to Polymarket, predict.fun's Maker rebate offers two key advantages that are more direct: a higher rebate rate, and real-time settlement immediately after the trade, without waiting for finalization.For high-frequency traders, professional market makers, and users who frequently employ limit orders, real-time rebates allow for faster capital release, reducing the continuous impact of fees on trading profits. The higher rebate rate also means that as trading frequency and volume increase, the actual cost savings become more significant.This mechanism now covers all Up/Down markets on predict.fun. Users do not need to register or apply separately; rebates for qualifying orders will be automatically credited to the account upon execution.
SOL up 9% Drives Solana Treasury Stocks Higher, Multiple DATs Rise Over 10% Intraday
: As the price of SOL rose approximately 9% on Friday, the stock prices of several Solana Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies surged in tandem. Sol Strategies (STKE) rose as much as 22% intraday, hitting $1.20, leading the gains among other crypto treasury stocks.Other Solana DATs also recorded notable gains. Forward Industries (FWDI) rose up to 12% intraday to $4.03, SkyAI (SKYA) increased 11% to $1.07, DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) rose 10% to $2.73, and Solana Company (HSDT) also climbed over 10%, reaching a high of $1.65.This rally was also fueled by expectations of index inclusion. Several digital asset treasury companies, including Forward, the largest Solana treasury firm, are set to be added to the Russell indexes after Friday's market close. Two major Ethereum treasury companies, Bitmine (BMNR) and SharpLink (SBET), will also be included in related Russell indexes, while the smaller Solana treasury firm Upexi (UPXI) will join the Russell Microcap.
Lenovo: DRAM and NAND Price Increases Will Become the New Normal, Continuing Beyond 2030
: Citrini analyst jukan posted on X platform, stating that Lenovo considers memory price increases the "new normal." DRAM and NAND flash memory prices have entered a structural upward cycle. Even if major suppliers continue to expand production, prices are unlikely to return to early 2025 levels. Higher costs are being passed through the entire industry. In the future, various electronic devices, including PCs and smartphones, are expected to face continued price pressure, with higher prices becoming the "new normal" after 2030.