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Analysis: On-chain data sends bearish signals, Bitcoin rebound faces sustained selling pressure
Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has entered a deeper correction phase, dropping to a low of $59,200 on June 5, a cumulative 53% decline from its all-time high in October 2025. This decline is primarily driven by record outflows from spot ETFs, derivative deleveraging, and sustained pressure from a high-interest-rate macroeconomic environment. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note currently remains above 4.45%, further dampening market expectations for a Fed rate cut.On-chain and fund flow data suggest the current market is closer to a "distribution phase" than "panic selling." The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has turned significantly negative after strong accumulation from April to May, indicating that recent buyers are steadily exiting. Meanwhile, the cost basis for short-term holders has fallen below the True Market Mean of $77,800, meaning a large number of new investors are in unrealized loss positions, creating significant selling pressure for any potential rebound. As the price approaches the overall realized cost basis of around $53,900, the characteristic of reducing positions on bounces is becoming more pronounced.At the macro level, the US economy continues to grow, but inflation is eroding real household income. The job market remains robust, with job openings hitting a nearly two-year high and continued job creation exceeding replacement levels. Sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing, construction, and leisure and hospitality are all expanding. However, inflation is expected to continue outpacing wage growth, leading to a decline in real purchasing power and presenting the Fed with a more complex balance between maintaining employment and controlling inflation.The key driver of current market trends has shifted to real yields. Driven by rising energy prices and geopolitical risks, inflation expectations are heating up, pushing both nominal and real yields on US Treasuries higher. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, prompting investors to reassess their allocation to risk assets. Bitcoin has been the first to feel the impact, with US spot ETFs experiencing their largest outflows since launch. The market has also shifted from betting on rate cuts to pricing in the risk of "higher for longer" interest rates. Bitfinex Alpha believes that, in the current phase, the trajectory of real yields has become the most important variable influencing performance in both traditional financial and digital asset markets.Despite short-term pressure, the institutionalization process continues. The report notes that Securitize's approval to list on the New York Stock Exchange signals that tokenization infrastructure is further integrating into the traditional financial system. Concurrently, the US GENIUS Act is advancing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, bringing issuers under compliance requirements similar to those for traditional financial institutions. The institutio
CryptoQuant.com: BTC's Current Pullback Remains Higher Than Previous Panic Selling Lows
Odaily, CryptoQuant.com posted on X platform, stating that BTC’s current pullback remains higher than the previous panic selling lows. This does not guarantee further declines, but the current situation still shows a substantial difference from past cyclical lows.
BIT: ETF Funds Continue Inflow, Bitcoin Edges Higher Gradually
Odaily Odaily News: BIT Official's daily chart analysis indicates that spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, with institutional buying power accumulating steadily and providing support for prices.It notes that Strategy has invested approximately $11 billion this year to increase its Bitcoin holdings. The combination of ETF inflows and corporate buying is helping to strengthen market absorption capacity. The analysis suggests that, in the absence of significant risk event disruptions, the current market structure remains supportive of Bitcoin's gradual upward trend.
Drift Protocol Clarifies Redemption Mechanism: Early Exit at a Discount, or Wait for Higher Recovery Value
Drift Protocol released an explanation of its redemption mechanism, stating that users may redeem at any time after the redemption window opens. However, early redemptions will be fulfilled at the current pool’s proportional share, resulting in a recovery value lower than the full claim amount. Conversely, holders who delay redemption may receive a higher recovery price as the pool’s size grows. The protocol emphasizes that this mechanism aims to balance liquidity with the distribution of returns to long-term holders.
BIT: ETF Funds Continue Inflow, Bitcoin Edges Higher Gradually
Odaily Odaily News: BIT Official's daily chart analysis indicates that spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, with institutional buying power accumulating steadily and providing support for prices.It notes that Strategy has invested approximately $11 billion this year to increase its Bitcoin holdings. The combination of ETF inflows and corporate buying is helping to strengthen market absorption capacity. The analysis suggests that, in the absence of significant risk event disruptions, the current market structure remains supportive of Bitcoin's gradual upward trend.
Related news
Ethereum Nears 200 Million Non-Empty Addresses, Holder Count 230% Higher Than BTC
According to Santiment data, Ethereum is just 5 million addresses away from reaching 200 million non-empty addresses. Despite bearish market sentiment, its number of holders remains 230% higher than that of BTC.
Analysis: On-chain data sends bearish signals, Bitcoin rebound faces sustained selling pressure
Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has entered a deeper correction phase, dropping to a low of $59,200 on June 5, a cumulative 53% decline from its all-time high in October 2025. This decline is primarily driven by record outflows from spot ETFs, derivative deleveraging, and sustained pressure from a high-interest-rate macroeconomic environment. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note currently remains above 4.45%, further dampening market expectations for a Fed rate cut.On-chain and fund flow data suggest the current market is closer to a "distribution phase" than "panic selling." The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has turned significantly negative after strong accumulation from April to May, indicating that recent buyers are steadily exiting. Meanwhile, the cost basis for short-term holders has fallen below the True Market Mean of $77,800, meaning a large number of new investors are in unrealized loss positions, creating significant selling pressure for any potential rebound. As the price approaches the overall realized cost basis of around $53,900, the characteristic of reducing positions on bounces is becoming more pronounced.At the macro level, the US economy continues to grow, but inflation is eroding real household income. The job market remains robust, with job openings hitting a nearly two-year high and continued job creation exceeding replacement levels. Sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing, construction, and leisure and hospitality are all expanding. However, inflation is expected to continue outpacing wage growth, leading to a decline in real purchasing power and presenting the Fed with a more complex balance between maintaining employment and controlling inflation.The key driver of current market trends has shifted to real yields. Driven by rising energy prices and geopolitical risks, inflation expectations are heating up, pushing both nominal and real yields on US Treasuries higher. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, prompting investors to reassess their allocation to risk assets. Bitcoin has been the first to feel the impact, with US spot ETFs experiencing their largest outflows since launch. The market has also shifted from betting on rate cuts to pricing in the risk of "higher for longer" interest rates. Bitfinex Alpha believes that, in the current phase, the trajectory of real yields has become the most important variable influencing performance in both traditional financial and digital asset markets.Despite short-term pressure, the institutionalization process continues. The report notes that Securitize's approval to list on the New York Stock Exchange signals that tokenization infrastructure is further integrating into the traditional financial system. Concurrently, the US GENIUS Act is advancing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, bringing issuers under compliance requirements similar to those for traditional financial institutions. The institutio
Delphi Digital: Strategy's Bitcoin Accumulation Has Entered a Higher-Cost Phase
Delphi Digital stated that Strategy has primarily relied on issuing stocks at high premiums and low-cost convertible bonds over the past years to secure funds for continuously increasing its Bitcoin holdings. However, this financing window is now essentially closed.Delphi points out that common stock financing is currently constrained by the Market-Adjusted Net Asset Value (mNAV), and new convertible bond issuance has also been suspended. STRC has thus become its primary financing channel. Since STRC has a lower repayment priority in the capital structure compared to convertible bonds and preferred shares, it requires a high yield of approximately 11.5% to compensate investors for the impairment risk they bear.Delphi believes that Strategy is currently continuing its Bitcoin accumulation plan by paying higher financing costs, buying time to address the large debt repayments maturing in 2028.
HTX DeepThink: Nonfarm Payrolls Approaching—Labor Market Resilience and Sticky Inflation Jointly Anchor the Higher-Rate Framework
Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzes that the core variable driving today’s crypto market is shifting from a singular “rate-cut expectation trade” to a composite framework comprising “labor-market resilience + inflationary pressure + uncertainty around the interest-rate path.” This Friday’s release of April’s nonfarm payroll data will serve as the most critical near-term macro trigger: the market expects approximately 62,000 new jobs—significantly lower than March’s figure but still within a stable range—with unemployment holding steady at 4.3% and wage growth rebounding. While labor conditions have not deteriorated, persistent inflationary pressure places the Federal Reserve in a classic “difficult-to-shift-toward-easing” environment. Even if the nonfarm payroll data comes in weak, markets are unlikely to broadly reprice for rate cuts; conversely, stronger-than-expected data could reignite pricing for “higher-for-longer” interest rates.
Drift Protocol Clarifies Redemption Mechanism: Early Exit at a Discount, or Wait for Higher Recovery Value
Drift Protocol released an explanation of its redemption mechanism, stating that users may redeem at any time after the redemption window opens. However, early redemptions will be fulfilled at the current pool’s proportional share, resulting in a recovery value lower than the full claim amount. Conversely, holders who delay redemption may receive a higher recovery price as the pool’s size grows. The protocol emphasizes that this mechanism aims to balance liquidity with the distribution of returns to long-term holders.
CryptoQuant.com: BTC's Current Pullback Remains Higher Than Previous Panic Selling Lows
Odaily, CryptoQuant.com posted on X platform, stating that BTC’s current pullback remains higher than the previous panic selling lows. This does not guarantee further declines, but the current situation still shows a substantial difference from past cyclical lows.