Options market pricing suggests less than a 50% probability that SpaceX will rise to become the world’s most valuable company, and it may take years to achieve such a leap.

According to CNBC, after listing on the Nasdaq at an approximate valuation of $2.6 trillion, SpaceX quickly became the world’s fifth-largest publicly traded company and entered a market-cap ranking race with Amazon. However, pricing in the options market suggests it may take considerable time for SpaceX to climb into the global top three—or even claim the No. 1 spot. Currently, SpaceX’s market capitalization remains significantly below that of third-place Alphabet and second-place Apple—both valued above $4.4 trillion. To overtake them and become the world’s second-largest company by market cap (just behind NVIDIA), SpaceX’s stock price would need to rise roughly 70% to $340 per share. Based on implied probability models derived from options-market pricing, the likelihood that SpaceX reaches this target price before July 2028 stands at approximately 50%. If the goal is to become the world’s largest company by market cap—surpassing NVIDIA—the options market assigns a roughly 38% probability of achieving this by June 2028, rising to about 41% by year-end 2028. Analysts note that options prices reflect the collective market expectation regarding future trajectories. Higher-strike options carry an elevated uncertainty premium, indicating that—even though SpaceX possesses a compelling long-term growth narrative—reaching the pinnacle of market capitalization is still viewed as a high-difficulty, long-duration endeavor.