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Analysis: Micron May Be Entering a New Valuation Structure Logic of "Higher Earnings, Higher Valuation"

Odaily reports, Deep Value Memetics posted an analysis on X platform, pointing out that Micron Technology may currently be exhibiting an atypical semiconductor valuation structure: as earnings per share (EPS) rise, the valuation multiple the market assigns is simultaneously expanding.Currently, Micron trades at approximately 22 times PE, below the S&P 500 (SPY) average of about 22 times, and also significantly lower than the semiconductor index (SOX) at roughly 26 times. In previous cycles, analysts typically assigned lower valuation multiples during the peak earnings phase. However, as the "de-risking" process advances, this "show-me" narrative is shifting. The market may be entering a new phase of "EPS growth → valuation multiple expansion," leading to exponential valuation revaluation. If EPS reaches $200 and is assigned a 20 times valuation, Micron's stock price could point toward the $4,000 level.

Analysis: Micron May Break the Traditional Semiconductor Pricing Framework and Enter a New Logic of “Higher Profits, Higher Valuation”

According to an analysis published by Deep Value Memetics, Micron Technology may currently be exhibiting an atypical semiconductor valuation structure: its earnings per share (EPS) are rising while its market valuation multiple is simultaneously expanding.

Options market pricing suggests less than a 50% probability that SpaceX will rise to become the world’s most valuable company, and it may take years to achieve such a leap.

According to CNBC, after listing on the Nasdaq at an approximate valuation of $2.6 trillion, SpaceX quickly became the world’s fifth-largest publicly traded company and entered a market-cap ranking race with Amazon. However, pricing in the options market suggests it may take considerable time for SpaceX to climb into the global top three—or even claim the No. 1 spot. Currently, SpaceX’s market capitalization remains significantly below that of third-place Alphabet and second-place Apple—both valued above $4.4 trillion. To overtake them and become the world’s second-largest company by market cap (just behind NVIDIA), SpaceX’s stock price would need to rise roughly 70% to $340 per share. Based on implied probability models derived from options-market pricing, the likelihood that SpaceX reaches this target price before July 2028 stands at approximately 50%. If the goal is to become the world’s largest company by market cap—surpassing NVIDIA—the options market assigns a roughly 38% probability of achieving this by June 2028, rising to about 41% by year-end 2028. Analysts note that options prices reflect the collective market expectation regarding future trajectories. Higher-strike options carry an elevated uncertainty premium, indicating that—even though SpaceX possesses a compelling long-term growth narrative—reaching the pinnacle of market capitalization is still viewed as a high-difficulty, long-duration endeavor.

Delphi Digital: Strategy's Bitcoin Accumulation Has Entered a Higher-Cost Phase

Delphi Digital stated that Strategy has primarily relied on issuing stocks at high premiums and low-cost convertible bonds over the past years to secure funds for continuously increasing its Bitcoin holdings. However, this financing window is now essentially closed.Delphi points out that common stock financing is currently constrained by the Market-Adjusted Net Asset Value (mNAV), and new convertible bond issuance has also been suspended. STRC has thus become its primary financing channel. Since STRC has a lower repayment priority in the capital structure compared to convertible bonds and preferred shares, it requires a high yield of approximately 11.5% to compensate investors for the impairment risk they bear.Delphi believes that Strategy is currently continuing its Bitcoin accumulation plan by paying higher financing costs, buying time to address the large debt repayments maturing in 2028.