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Wintermute Weekly Report: CPI Falls More Than Expected Amid Escalating Iran Tensions, BTC Closes Higher Against Trend to Become Week's Strongest Risk Asset

According to Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, the largest single-month drop since April 2020, overall inflation decreased from 4.2% to 3.5%, the market immediately priced in a hold for the July FOMC, and the probability of a rate hike in September also dropped from over 75% to 63%. However, the US restarted a naval blockade on Iranian ports and conducted air strikes for the fourth consecutive night, Brent crude surged 15.54% in a single week, reaching a high of $87 per barrel, pressure for energy inflation to rebound is accumulating, casting doubt on the sustainability of this CPI decline. Meanwhile, China's Moonshot released the open-source model Kimi K3, claiming performance comparable to frontier models from OpenAI and Anthropic, directly impacting the AI compute narrative, TSMC fell 7% in a single day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded its worst weekly performance in 15 months, the Nasdaq dropped 4.16%, and Nvidia temporarily ceded the top spot in global market cap to Apple. The crypto market, however, strengthened against the trend, becoming the best-performing risk asset of the week. Within minutes of the CPI data release, BTC surged from around $62,000 to $64,900, ETH jumped 7% in a single day to $1,884, CoinGlass data showed approximately $134 million in short positions were liquidated within the first hour. BTC ETF

predict.fun launches Up/Down Market Maker Rebates: Higher rebate rates than Polymarket, with real-time settlement

: Prediction market platform predict.fun has announced that all Up/Down markets now feature a Maker order rebate mechanism. Users who complete trades via limit orders can receive a 25% rebate on Maker fees.Compared to Polymarket, predict.fun's Maker rebate offers two key advantages that are more direct: a higher rebate rate, and real-time settlement immediately after the trade, without waiting for finalization.For high-frequency traders, professional market makers, and users who frequently employ limit orders, real-time rebates allow for faster capital release, reducing the continuous impact of fees on trading profits. The higher rebate rate also means that as trading frequency and volume increase, the actual cost savings become more significant.This mechanism now covers all Up/Down markets on predict.fun. Users do not need to register or apply separately; rebates for qualifying orders will be automatically credited to the account upon execution.

Drift Protocol Clarifies Redemption Mechanism: Early Exit at a Discount, or Wait for Higher Recovery Value

Drift Protocol released an explanation of its redemption mechanism, stating that users may redeem at any time after the redemption window opens. However, early redemptions will be fulfilled at the current pool’s proportional share, resulting in a recovery value lower than the full claim amount. Conversely, holders who delay redemption may receive a higher recovery price as the pool’s size grows. The protocol emphasizes that this mechanism aims to balance liquidity with the distribution of returns to long-term holders.

BIT: ETF Funds Continue Inflow, Bitcoin Edges Higher Gradually

Odaily Odaily News: BIT Official's daily chart analysis indicates that spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, with institutional buying power accumulating steadily and providing support for prices.It notes that Strategy has invested approximately $11 billion this year to increase its Bitcoin holdings. The combination of ETF inflows and corporate buying is helping to strengthen market absorption capacity. The analysis suggests that, in the absence of significant risk event disruptions, the current market structure remains supportive of Bitcoin's gradual upward trend.