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EML Protocol is a comprehensive platform that provides a wide range of services and features to make users’ daily lives simple and convenient. Through services such as TrustBridgeX, TrustTravelX, and TrustMarketX, it provides users with valuable experiences such as secure transactions, social networking, and trading of various goods and services, all of which are done using the EML token.

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Serenity: Small Wafer Allocation Could Support Hundreds of Millions in Gross Profit; CPO Volume Expansion May Further Unlock Growth Potential

"White Hair Stock God" Serenity published an analysis stating that if Sivers obtains approximately 10% of wafer capacity allocation from foundry Win Semi through an asset-light model, under the assumptions of 65% yield and an ASP of $50 to $75, the annual revenue from its optical array products could reach $341 million to $512 million. Based on management’s gross margin target of 50% to 60%+, the corresponding annual gross profit would be approximately $205 million to $307 million.At Sivers' current market cap of around $1.1 billion, the market cap-to-gross profit multiple in this scenario would be only about 3.6x to 5.4x. If the capacity allocation increases to 15%, annual gross profit could rise to between $307 million and $461 million, correspondingly reducing the valuation multiple to 2.4x to 3.6x.Serenity pointed out that Sivers' CEO has previously confirmed the company is cooperating with more wafer fabs to expand capacity, and since 2024, the scope of its supply chain certifications has been continuously expanding. With the accelerated development of the co-packaged optics (CPO) market, future revenue guidance and capacity plans may be further revised upward.On the demand side, supply of continuous wave (CW) lasers remains tight. Lumentum’s financial report indicates the company has begun purchasing CW lasers from the open market to fulfill EML orders. TrendForce data shows that AMD is securing related capacity through long-term agreements. Serenity believes that as Sivers enters mass production with partners such as GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Ayar Labs, POET, and O-Net, any newly added and certified independent capacity could be quickly absorbed by the market.Additionally, a recent report from Morgan Stanley has listed Sivers, with a market cap of approximately $1.1 billion, as one of the three core players in the CPO laser field, alongside Coherent and Lumentum, which each have market caps exceeding $55 billion. Serenity believes that beyond its existing business, Sivers—having listed on Nasdaq—may also expand its TAM through future M&A, replicating the growth path of Lumentum's acquisition of Cloud Light to enter the complete optical module and optical engine market.

Morgan Stanley: US Plans to Restrict Chinese Optical Module Components, Coherent and Other Non-Chinese Suppliers Face Substitution Window

According to TechFlow Research, Reuters reported on August 4 that the Trump administration and the FCC are preparing to restrict Chinese data center components from entering the US, with optical modules specifically mentioned. Morgan Stanley pointed out in a research report on the same day that Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink collectively account for approximately 50% of the optical module market share; if the ban is implemented, this portion of demand will shift to non-Chinese suppliers. Coherent (COHR) is the biggest beneficiary, Lumentum (LITE) indirectly benefits from the continued tight supply of EMLs, and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and Fabrinet (FN) also have the capacity to absorb the demand. Morgan Stanley believes the short-term implementation of the ban faces two major bottlenecks: non-Chinese manufacturers' capacity cannot quickly fill the demand gap; Indium Phosphide (InP) substrates rely on China's AXTI, with Lumentum having just signed a new supply agreement last week and one of the purposes of Coherent's CEO visiting China several months ago being to secure InP supply. The ban will cause a supply shock in the short term but is beneficial for the restructuring of the non-Chinese supply chain in the long term.

Serenity: AI Data Center InP Laser Supply Gap May Exceed Memory Chips, Highlighting the Value of Optical Communication Bottlenecks

Odaily News, "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity stated that Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston has issued a warning that the indium phosphide (InP) laser supply chain for AI data centers is facing a more severe supply gap than memory chips. Even with Lumentum's five InP wafer fabs, product shipments could still fall more than 30% short of customer demand, indicating that AI infrastructure expansion is encountering a critical bottleneck in key optical communication components.Serenity pointed out that current supply pressure is mainly concentrated in the EML (electro-absorption modulated laser) segment, but the InP laser shortage could continue to spread. He remains bullish on the "bottleneck investment" opportunities in the optical communication laser supply chain, keeping an eye on companies including Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE), Lumentum (LITE), and Coherent (COHR). As AI data center capital expenditures continue to rise, optical modules, lasers, and other infrastructure segments that were previously undervalued by the market are now undergoing repricing, and the InP laser supply bottleneck could become a key limiting factor in the expansion of AI computing power.

“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity: Continuous-Wave Lasers Could Become Core Bottleneck for AI Optical Interconnects; Related Assets Hold Strategic Value

“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity stated on X platform that he believes the "photonics theme + continuous-wave (CW) laser bottleneck" is one of the most important investment directions in the current AI infrastructure field.Serenity pointed out that the market seems to have overlooked Lumentum's (LITE) market cap growth from about $30 billion in 2024 to over $65 billion, with the core reason being the EML laser supply bottleneck driven by NVIDIA and changes in the optical network architecture.He believes the market is currently experiencing a similar logic, where continuous-wave lasers, 1.6T optical modules, and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) architecture have become the focus of a new round of industrial upgrades. As NVIDIA continues to sign long-term supply agreements, AMD and other cloud service providers are competing for supply chain resources for continuous-wave lasers and optical components.Serenity cited Goldman Sachs research, stating that the total addressable market (TAM) for the optical communications market could grow to $154 billion by 2028, while the CPO market size is expected to surge from nearly zero to $91 billion within the next two and a half years.He stated that companies including Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), SIVE, and other continuous-wave laser-related enterprises all hold strategic value, and believes the market may once again replicate the investment opportunities brought by the EML laser supply crunch. He is currently focusing on related assets in the continuous-wave laser supply chain, such as SOI, Tower Semiconductor (TSEM), and SIVE.

Related news

Morgan Stanley: US Plans to Restrict Chinese Optical Module Components, Coherent and Other Non-Chinese Suppliers Face Substitution Window

According to TechFlow Research, Reuters reported on August 4 that the Trump administration and the FCC are preparing to restrict Chinese data center components from entering the US, with optical modules specifically mentioned. Morgan Stanley pointed out in a research report on the same day that Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink collectively account for approximately 50% of the optical module market share; if the ban is implemented, this portion of demand will shift to non-Chinese suppliers. Coherent (COHR) is the biggest beneficiary, Lumentum (LITE) indirectly benefits from the continued tight supply of EMLs, and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and Fabrinet (FN) also have the capacity to absorb the demand. Morgan Stanley believes the short-term implementation of the ban faces two major bottlenecks: non-Chinese manufacturers' capacity cannot quickly fill the demand gap; Indium Phosphide (InP) substrates rely on China's AXTI, with Lumentum having just signed a new supply agreement last week and one of the purposes of Coherent's CEO visiting China several months ago being to secure InP supply. The ban will cause a supply shock in the short term but is beneficial for the restructuring of the non-Chinese supply chain in the long term.

Serenity: AI Data Center InP Laser Supply Gap May Exceed Memory Chips, Highlighting the Value of Optical Communication Bottlenecks

Odaily News, "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity stated that Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston has issued a warning that the indium phosphide (InP) laser supply chain for AI data centers is facing a more severe supply gap than memory chips. Even with Lumentum's five InP wafer fabs, product shipments could still fall more than 30% short of customer demand, indicating that AI infrastructure expansion is encountering a critical bottleneck in key optical communication components.Serenity pointed out that current supply pressure is mainly concentrated in the EML (electro-absorption modulated laser) segment, but the InP laser shortage could continue to spread. He remains bullish on the "bottleneck investment" opportunities in the optical communication laser supply chain, keeping an eye on companies including Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE), Lumentum (LITE), and Coherent (COHR). As AI data center capital expenditures continue to rise, optical modules, lasers, and other infrastructure segments that were previously undervalued by the market are now undergoing repricing, and the InP laser supply bottleneck could become a key limiting factor in the expansion of AI computing power.

Jefferies: Optical Module Market to Triple by 2027, 1.6T Still 30% Shortage

According to Jefferies' optical expert conference call on July 15, the optical module market will double in 2026 and triple in 2027, but 1.6T optical modules will continue to face a 30% shortage from 2026 to 2027. 800G optical module shipments in 2026 are expected to be approximately 40-42 million units, with demand exceeding 45 million units, resulting in a gap of about 10%; 1.6T optical module shipments in 2026 are expected to be approximately 18 million units, with demand around 26 million units, resulting in a 30% gap. Upstream DSP and 200G EML chips are monopolized by US and Japanese vendors such as Broadcom, Marvell, Lumentum, and Sumitomo Electric, and Chinese domestic substitution will take time. Indium Phosphide (InP) is a key link, with 70% of global supply located in China; Yunnan Germanium is a core target. Desay Battery's 200G EML is expected to enter mass production in the second half of 2026, which is a key node for domestic substitution. Jefferies believes optical module demand is certain, but the upstream supply landscape determines profit distribution; the InP supply chain and 200G EML breakthrough progress are worth focusing on.

Serenity: Small Wafer Allocation Could Support Hundreds of Millions in Gross Profit; CPO Volume Expansion May Further Unlock Growth Potential

"White Hair Stock God" Serenity published an analysis stating that if Sivers obtains approximately 10% of wafer capacity allocation from foundry Win Semi through an asset-light model, under the assumptions of 65% yield and an ASP of $50 to $75, the annual revenue from its optical array products could reach $341 million to $512 million. Based on management’s gross margin target of 50% to 60%+, the corresponding annual gross profit would be approximately $205 million to $307 million.At Sivers' current market cap of around $1.1 billion, the market cap-to-gross profit multiple in this scenario would be only about 3.6x to 5.4x. If the capacity allocation increases to 15%, annual gross profit could rise to between $307 million and $461 million, correspondingly reducing the valuation multiple to 2.4x to 3.6x.Serenity pointed out that Sivers' CEO has previously confirmed the company is cooperating with more wafer fabs to expand capacity, and since 2024, the scope of its supply chain certifications has been continuously expanding. With the accelerated development of the co-packaged optics (CPO) market, future revenue guidance and capacity plans may be further revised upward.On the demand side, supply of continuous wave (CW) lasers remains tight. Lumentum’s financial report indicates the company has begun purchasing CW lasers from the open market to fulfill EML orders. TrendForce data shows that AMD is securing related capacity through long-term agreements. Serenity believes that as Sivers enters mass production with partners such as GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Ayar Labs, POET, and O-Net, any newly added and certified independent capacity could be quickly absorbed by the market.Additionally, a recent report from Morgan Stanley has listed Sivers, with a market cap of approximately $1.1 billion, as one of the three core players in the CPO laser field, alongside Coherent and Lumentum, which each have market caps exceeding $55 billion. Serenity believes that beyond its existing business, Sivers—having listed on Nasdaq—may also expand its TAM through future M&A, replicating the growth path of Lumentum's acquisition of Cloud Light to enter the complete optical module and optical engine market.

“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity: Continuous-Wave Lasers Could Become Core Bottleneck for AI Optical Interconnects; Related Assets Hold Strategic Value

“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity stated on X platform that he believes the "photonics theme + continuous-wave (CW) laser bottleneck" is one of the most important investment directions in the current AI infrastructure field.Serenity pointed out that the market seems to have overlooked Lumentum's (LITE) market cap growth from about $30 billion in 2024 to over $65 billion, with the core reason being the EML laser supply bottleneck driven by NVIDIA and changes in the optical network architecture.He believes the market is currently experiencing a similar logic, where continuous-wave lasers, 1.6T optical modules, and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) architecture have become the focus of a new round of industrial upgrades. As NVIDIA continues to sign long-term supply agreements, AMD and other cloud service providers are competing for supply chain resources for continuous-wave lasers and optical components.Serenity cited Goldman Sachs research, stating that the total addressable market (TAM) for the optical communications market could grow to $154 billion by 2028, while the CPO market size is expected to surge from nearly zero to $91 billion within the next two and a half years.He stated that companies including Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), SIVE, and other continuous-wave laser-related enterprises all hold strategic value, and believes the market may once again replicate the investment opportunities brought by the EML laser supply crunch. He is currently focusing on related assets in the continuous-wave laser supply chain, such as SOI, Tower Semiconductor (TSEM), and SIVE.

“White-haired Stock Guru” Serenity: OE Solutions Could Be One of the Most Reasonable M&A Targets in the Optical Communications Sector

“White-haired Stock Guru” Serenity posted on X, stating that he believes South Korean optical communications company OE Solutions (138080.KQ) is one of the most reasonable choices among potential acquisition targets for large downstream enterprises.Serenity pointed out that the company currently has a market cap of approximately $215 million, yet possesses scarce EML/CW laser intellectual property (IP). He believes that companies such as Source Photonics or Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing could gain greater strategic value through vertical integration by acquiring OE Solutions.Serenity noted that given the substantial R&D investment and capital expenditure required for expanding wafer fabs and initial construction, and the fact that OE Solutions itself remains a relatively small optical firm, it holds certain M&A appeal. He also disclosed that he currently holds a position in the company.