Morgan Stanley: US Plans to Restrict Chinese Optical Module Components, Coherent and Other Non-Chinese Suppliers Face Substitution Window

According to TechFlow Research, Reuters reported on August 4 that the Trump administration and the FCC are preparing to restrict Chinese data center components from entering the US, with optical modules specifically mentioned. Morgan Stanley pointed out in a research report on the same day that Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink collectively account for approximately 50% of the optical module market share; if the ban is implemented, this portion of demand will shift to non-Chinese suppliers. Coherent (COHR) is the biggest beneficiary, Lumentum (LITE) indirectly benefits from the continued tight supply of EMLs, and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and Fabrinet (FN) also have the capacity to absorb the demand. Morgan Stanley believes the short-term implementation of the ban faces two major bottlenecks: non-Chinese manufacturers' capacity cannot quickly fill the demand gap; Indium Phosphide (InP) substrates rely on China's AXTI, with Lumentum having just signed a new supply agreement last week and one of the purposes of Coherent's CEO visiting China several months ago being to secure InP supply. The ban will cause a supply shock in the short term but is beneficial for the restructuring of the non-Chinese supply chain in the long term.