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Odaily News, "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity stated that Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston has issued a warning that the indium phosphide (InP) laser supply chain for AI data centers is facing a more severe supply gap than memory chips. Even with Lumentum's five InP wafer fabs, product shipments could still fall more than 30% short of customer demand, indicating that AI infrastructure expansion is encountering a critical bottleneck in key optical communication components.Serenity pointed out that current supply pressure is mainly concentrated in the EML (electro-absorption modulated laser) segment, but the InP laser shortage could continue to spread. He remains bullish on the "bottleneck investment" opportunities in the optical communication laser supply chain, keeping an eye on companies including Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE), Lumentum (LITE), and Coherent (COHR). As AI data center capital expenditures continue to rise, optical modules, lasers, and other infrastructure segments that were previously undervalued by the market are now undergoing repricing, and the InP laser supply bottleneck could become a key limiting factor in the expansion of AI computing power.
“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity stated on X platform that he believes the "photonics theme + continuous-wave (CW) laser bottleneck" is one of the most important investment directions in the current AI infrastructure field.Serenity pointed out that the market seems to have overlooked Lumentum's (LITE) market cap growth from about $30 billion in 2024 to over $65 billion, with the core reason being the EML laser supply bottleneck driven by NVIDIA and changes in the optical network architecture.He believes the market is currently experiencing a similar logic, where continuous-wave lasers, 1.6T optical modules, and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) architecture have become the focus of a new round of industrial upgrades. As NVIDIA continues to sign long-term supply agreements, AMD and other cloud service providers are competing for supply chain resources for continuous-wave lasers and optical components.Serenity cited Goldman Sachs research, stating that the total addressable market (TAM) for the optical communications market could grow to $154 billion by 2028, while the CPO market size is expected to surge from nearly zero to $91 billion within the next two and a half years.He stated that companies including Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), SIVE, and other continuous-wave laser-related enterprises all hold strategic value, and believes the market may once again replicate the investment opportunities brought by the EML laser supply crunch. He is currently focusing on related assets in the continuous-wave laser supply chain, such as SOI, Tower Semiconductor (TSEM), and SIVE.