“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity: Continuous-Wave Lasers Could Become Core Bottleneck for AI Optical Interconnects; Related Assets Hold Strategic Value
“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity stated on X platform that he believes the "photonics theme + continuous-wave (CW) laser bottleneck" is one of the most important investment directions in the current AI infrastructure field.Serenity pointed out that the market seems to have overlooked Lumentum's (LITE) market cap growth from about $30 billion in 2024 to over $65 billion, with the core reason being the EML laser supply bottleneck driven by NVIDIA and changes in the optical network architecture.He believes the market is currently experiencing a similar logic, where continuous-wave lasers, 1.6T optical modules, and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) architecture have become the focus of a new round of industrial upgrades. As NVIDIA continues to sign long-term supply agreements, AMD and other cloud service providers are competing for supply chain resources for continuous-wave lasers and optical components.Serenity cited Goldman Sachs research, stating that the total addressable market (TAM) for the optical communications market could grow to $154 billion by 2028, while the CPO market size is expected to surge from nearly zero to $91 billion within the next two and a half years.He stated that companies including Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), SIVE, and other continuous-wave laser-related enterprises all hold strategic value, and believes the market may once again replicate the investment opportunities brought by the EML laser supply crunch. He is currently focusing on related assets in the continuous-wave laser supply chain, such as SOI, Tower Semiconductor (TSEM), and SIVE.