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CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin may have entered a new accumulation zone, but the potential structural bottom for this cycle remains around $48,000. Currently, Bitcoin’s post-adjustment seller risk ratio indicator shows that unprofitable supply is beginning to surpass profitable supply, and unrealized pressure on holders is rising significantly. Meanwhile, the Cumulative Value Destroyed Days (CVDD) valuation model indicates that Bitcoin’s structural bottom for this cycle is approximately $48,000.
CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu stated that BTC whale selling has ended: total whale holdings turned upward on June 14 after declining for 12 consecutive days, and the price rebounded to $65,704.89. Data shows that the Coin Days Destroyed inflow dropped from 2.16 million to just 33,000—nearly zero—indicating a significant reduction in selling pressure from long-term holders.
Odaily Odaily News CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that this week, the market was significantly impacted by SpaceX's massive IPO, drawing risk concerns across asset classes. Although the overall risk appetite indicator remains in a deviation zone, it has provided some relief in terms of market sentiment. For Bitcoin, this week marks a recovery phase from the low of $60,000. However, structural selling pressure persists. Data shows a weekly net outflow of about 20,900 BTC from exchanges, indicating that the ongoing selling pressure has not fully eased. The short-term rebound is primarily driven by short covering, as accumulated short positions over the past month are being liquidated intensively, forming periodic price support. Additionally, pressure on miners has begun to emerge. The overall risk appetite has not yet clearly turned positive, and the market is in a transitional state of "repair and deleveraging coexisting."
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on X that the current Global Risk On/Off indicator is neutral. Recent signs of de-escalation in the conflict—potentially linked to statements by relevant leaders—and growing market expectations around SpaceX’s IPO are influencing investor sentiment. It is reported that approximately 372 oil tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, carrying roughly 26 million tons of hydrocarbons. This situation may continue to affect global energy supply expectations and serve as a key variable for market risk sentiment. Currently, risk assets remain in a phase shaped by multiple overlapping factors—including geopolitical developments, shifts in liquidity, and capital market events involving major tech companies—while investors await clearer directional signals.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out that on-chain data shows Bitcoin (BTC) is flowing into exchanges in large quantities, while stablecoin liquidity continues to flow out. The simultaneous deterioration on both the supply and demand sides of the market is considered a major reason for Bitcoin's approximately 22% decline from its May highs.Furthermore, the Bitcoin 30-day net exchange flow indicator has turned notably positive, currently standing at around +114,000 BTC. Compared to the net outflow of approximately -85,000 to -115,000 BTC seen in early May, the market has shifted from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase. The indicator briefly rose to around +167,000 BTC in early June, indicating that more holders are transferring BTC to exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.At the same time, the 30-day moving average net flow of stablecoins remains consistently negative, currently at approximately -$105 million. In early May, this indicator was still in the range of +$40 million to +$90 million, representing relatively strong buy-side liquidity in the market. However, it turned negative after mid-May and expanded to around -$150 million to -$170 million in early June, indicating that stablecoin funds are leaving exchanges, reducing the market's "ammunition."Axel Adler's analysis suggests that the current market is experiencing a simultaneous combination of "increased BTC supply" and "declining stablecoin demand": on one hand, selling pressure is rising, and on the other, new buying power is insufficient. This has led to Bitcoin's pullback from its May highs and entry into a phase of declining risk appetite.For a trend reversal to materialize, the market needs to see simultaneous improvement in two indicators: BTC shifting back to net exchange outflows, signifying renewed accumulation by investors; and stablecoins re-entering exchanges, signaling the return of buying funds. Until these two indicators return to positive territory, any short-term rebound may be viewed more as a technical correction.
According to a post by the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s “Percent of Supply in Profit” indicator is approaching the critical 45% threshold. Historical data shows this level typically coincides with periods of intense market stress and heightened risk of mass capitulation—contrasting sharply with bull market peaks, where the indicator often exceeds 90%. Current figures indicate that a large portion of Bitcoin holdings have shifted from profitable to unprofitable positions, signaling a deep reset in market expectations rather than a state of euphoria. From an on-chain perspective, profit compression often drives a transfer of coins from weak hands to long-term holders. This may intensify short-term volatility, but historically, such redistribution processes have contributed to healthier market structure—and longer-term opportunities may now be emerging.
According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin whales dominated buying at the $60,000 to $61,000 range, accounting for 61.6% of purchase activity in this range.
Odaily Odaily News CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV pointed out in an analysis that Bitcoin demand has entered one of the most extreme contraction states since 2019. The 30-day combined demand growth for spot and perpetual futures has fallen to approximately -650,000 BTC, a threshold that has only appeared three times in history.The simultaneous contraction of spot and futures demand indicates that the weakness is not limited to leveraged speculation; institutional buying and derivative exposure are also retreating synchronously. Bitcoin faces fewer marginal buyers and weaker capacity to absorb selling pressure. Historically, the deep support zone of -650,000 BTC usually marks the beginning of a highly volatile market phase, rather than an immediate bottom.
CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin demand has reached a level seen only three times since 2019. Analyst @MorenoDV_ noted that the current market movement resembles the beginning of a final liquidation phase rather than confirmation of a trend reversal.
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's price has retraced approximately 20% over the past month, with two key on-chain indicators showing sustained market sentiment pressure. Among them, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score has dropped from 0.95 a month ago to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that the previous valuation premium has largely been digested and the market has entered a range more conducive to long-term accumulation.Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day simple moving average of Net Realized Profit/Loss has been in negative territory for 22 consecutive days, meaning the market has been completing transactions at a loss since May 18. The indicator hit a low of approximately -$1.2 billion on June 6 and has since slightly recovered to around -$1.1 billion. Although market pressure is evident, it remains below the extreme levels of approximately -$2.2 billion seen during the 2022 bear market capitulation phase.Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that currently, a large number of holders are selling Bitcoin below their cost basis, reflecting significant market fear and capitulation sentiment. However, the MVRV Z-score remains above 0, suggesting that the market has not yet entered a deeply undervalued zone, nor has it presented a historically significant value trough.He believes that combining these two indicators, while market sentiment is relatively weak, valuations have clearly cooled down. Going forward, key focus points will be whether the Net Realized Profit/Loss can return above the zero line and whether the MVRV Z-score can maintain a positive value. If the MVRV Z-score falls below 0, or realized losses move closer to the extreme levels of 2022 once again, it could signal the onset of a deeper phase of market capitulation.
CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan noted that Bitcoin’s MVRV is currently at 1.1, approaching the historically significant low-valuation zone that has marked major market bottoms. If the price falls further to the $50,000 level, the MVRV could reach 1.0—the full low-valuation threshold. Historical data shows this level appeared at the bottom of bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022, each time serving as the starting point for strong medium- to long-term rebounds.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin is once again testing its ~$62,000 low, while the current 7-day net realized loss has reached approximately $7 billion—higher than the level observed at February’s lows this year, though still below the peak loss of ~$14 billion seen during the winter market panic. Bitcoin’s current price has clearly fallen below the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) at ~$76,000. If the price declines further, the main support levels remaining are the network-wide average realized price of ~$54,000 and the long-term holders’ (LTH) cost basis at ~$49,000—both zones historically corresponding to capitulation phases and cycle bottoms. However, as long as Bitcoin holds above $54,000, the market will not enter a full capitulation phase; if it breaks below and sustains trading beneath February’s market low this year, it could potentially test ~$54,000—the final line of defense for this cycle.
Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, posted on platform X stating that the selling by Bitcoin OGs and old miners is essentially a process of absorption by traditional U.S. financial institutional investors and ETFs. He disagrees with the view that "Bitcoin lacks liquidity and cannot rise," pointing out that the key to asset value lies in who holds it.He believes that the institutional investors now holding Bitcoin could form a stronger demand base. Although the cyberpunk value of Bitcoin may be somewhat diluted in this process, the next round of upward movement will still arrive. As an investor, he remains bullish on Bitcoin and advises holding with patience.
Ethereum continues its weak trend after breaking below the key support level of $2,000. Market analysts warn that short-term "downside pressure" remains dominant, with traders focusing on the defense of the $1,800–$1,750 support zone. CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA pointed out that ETH's estimated leverage ratio remains relatively high at around 0.74, and the funding rate has been positive since April, indicating crowded long positions despite the persistent price weakness. The RSI is around 31, approaching oversold territory but without a clear reversal signal yet. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $695 million, with a single-day maximum outflow of about $121 million, reflecting a continued cooling in institutional allocation demand.Currently, ETH maintains a weak structure against the backdrop of high leverage, crowded longs, and persistent ETF outflows. The short-term risk is biased to the downside, making the $1,800 support level a key observation point for both market sentiment and technicals. (Cointelegrap)
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, stated that the accumulation of Bitcoin holdings by whales and dolphins has stalled, reflecting persistently weak new demand and indicating that the current market structure resembles the bearish phase of 2022. According to the report, the year-on-year contraction rate of balances held by whales (those holding 1,000–10,000 BTC) is the fastest this year; while balances held by dolphins (those holding 100–1,000 BTC) remain year-on-year positive, they have fallen significantly below trend. Meanwhile, long-term holder supply has risen to 15.8 million BTC, whereas short-term holder supply has declined from 6.4 million BTC in December 2025 to approximately 4.2 million BTC.
CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ pointed out that Bitcoin’s recent price action shows a dangerous divergence: Binance taker buy volume has been declining continuously, hitting a multi-month low—indicating a clear weakening in active buying demand. At the same time, Binance’s funding rate has rebounded into positive territory, suggesting traders are adding long positions via leverage. Historically, rising funding rates alongside shrinking spot demand often signal the market’s entry into a late-stage speculative phase—leverage-driven rallies lacking support from underlying spot capital are structurally fragile. If buying pressure fails to recover meaningfully, the current rise in funding rates may reflect latent risk rather than underlying market strength.
According to data from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost, Bitcoin spot trading volume has fallen 81% since October 2025.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum amid a sharp deterioration in the macroeconomic environment. This is a significant signal, suggesting the market is currently more in a "Risk-off" phase. Until its on-chain "Impulse" indicator returns above the zero line, every BTC rebound still lacks confirmation.He pointed out that the recently published fourth part of his "Decision Architecture for Bitcoin" focuses on building a macro framework based on the US Dollar Index (DXY), the 10-year US Treasury yield, and the VIX volatility index. The core argument is that not all macro fluctuations will disrupt the on-chain structure, but when macro factors truly enter "dominant mode," the market may temporarily lose upward momentum even if on-chain data is positive.Additionally, CryptoQuant added a dashboard for US spot Bitcoin ETFs this week, covering data such as weekly net inflows, cumulative flow, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, demand changes over the past four weeks, and capital distribution among various funds. Currently, the 30-day momentum of the ETF stands at just $362.8 million, whereas this indicator reached a high of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and hit a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025.Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains a crucial indicator for observing US spot demand. When the index stays consistently above zero, it indicates that US buying is still supporting the market. If it turns negative, even if BTC rises, its upward trend may lack genuine US demand support.
analysts from CryptoQuant have pointed out that, based on a comprehensive review of multiple miner indicators, Bitcoin miners have not yet exhibited behavioral characteristics that "confirm a market bottom," and are currently in a phase of waiting and cautious adjustment. Meanwhile, the Miner Position Index (MPI) remains in negative territory, indicating that current selling intensity is below historical averages. Miners are not in a panic-selling phase but are engaging in "passive selling" primarily to maintain cash flow, suggesting that the probability of an extreme short-term decline is relatively limited. Additionally, the Puell Multiple remains below 1, further indicating that miner revenues are at historically weak levels, and overall profitability is under pressure. However, the strong accumulation behavior typically seen at cycle bottoms has not yet appeared.The analysis suggests that miners are currently in a "waiting phase," having neither triggered a capitulation-style sell-off nor entered an active accumulation cycle. This resembles a typical transitional state before a market bottom forms. Overall, while selling pressure from miners has eased, on-chain structures still show short-term supply pressure exists. Bitcoin is expected to continue its range-bound consolidation pattern, and market sentiment is likely to remain cautious in the near term.
CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom pointed out that BTC HODL Waves data suggests the bottom of this cycle may form in the range of $65,900 to $70,500.