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CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that data shows Bitcoin is shifting from short-term speculators to long-term holders. The share of Short-Term Holders (STH) has dropped to 23%, the lowest level since the bottoming phase from 2022 to 2023; meanwhile, the share of Long-Term Holders (LTH) is approaching historical highs.
On-chain data shows that Avalanche (AVAX) currently has approximately $204.77 million worth of tokens staked, accounting for about 43% of the circulating supply, with a large amount of holdings locked. Meanwhile, according to CryptoQuant data, whale investors are adding positions simultaneously in the spot and futures markets, positioning in advance without waiting for breakout confirmation. Technically, AVAX is currently consolidating near the apex of the pennant pattern at $6.46, and the Stochastic RSI has not yet touched the oversold zone. According to the CoinGlass liquidation heatmap, over $1 million in liquidity is clustered near the $6.90 price level, becoming the next key target price for bulls.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since July, sentiment in the derivatives market has recovered, and the Binance funding rate, as an important reference indicator for the futures market, has started to turn positive again. He believes that from March to late May, Bitcoin experienced a deep correction, market pessimism accumulated and drove the funding rate to turn negative at one point, and this process once provided support for Bitcoin's technical rebound.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted that data shows the volume of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) inflows to exchanges recently reached a phased high. Based on the 90-day average, current long-term holder inflows account for 5.1% of total exchange inflows, approaching historical highs, surpassed only by the level of approximately 5.5% in 2020.
CryptoQuant 分析师 Darkfost 表示，数据显示，7 月比特币现货成交量延续下滑趋势，主要交易平台较 2024 年末高点普遍显著回落，整体市场活跃度已接近 2023 年熊市后期水平。其中，币安 7 月现货成交额超过 350 亿美元，但明显低于 2024 年 11 月的 2460 亿美元；同期，Bybit、Coinbase 和 OKX 的现货成交量分别下降 85%、61% 和 67%，显示成交萎缩并非单一平台现象，而是全球性趋势。
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin's overall demand structure has shown weakness, primarily exhibiting two states: first, simultaneous contraction of spot and futures demand; second, a brief rebound in futures demand driven solely by speculation, while spot demand continued to shrink.
CryptoQuant data shows USDC exchange flows have turned back to net inflows after over two months of net outflows. This shift may indicate that U.S. buying funds are re-entering the crypto market. (Cointelegraph)
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on X platform that Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score has dropped to approximately 0.42, about four times lower than its historical average of 1.7, indicating Bitcoin is currently in an undervalued zone. However, this metric has not yet entered negative territory, suggesting the market has not shown the "capitulation selling" typically associated with cycle bottoms.Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day Realized P/L has turned positive from negative, currently standing at approximately $239 million, indicating that on-chain selling pressure has eased. The analysis suggests that while the market is currently in an undervalued and short-term stabilization phase, it has yet to show the capitulation signal needed to confirm a cycle bottom, nor is there clear demand-driven momentum from a new cycle.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on X, stating that a significant liquidity cluster has formed below the current Bitcoin price, concentrated between $61,500 and $60,000. In the coming days, there is a possibility of a market pullback that could trigger liquidations within this liquidity zone. Typically, areas where a large number of stop-loss orders and leveraged positions gather are prone to attracting price volatility and become key targets for market liquidity release. However, this analysis is based on on-chain liquidity structure and does not necessarily mean the market will definitely drop to the aforementioned range. Investors should still pay attention to subsequent price trends and changes in market sentiment.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that the holdings of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH, those holding coins for over 6 months) have reached a new all-time high, currently exceeding 16.3 million BTC. Their average cost basis is approximately $49,400, yielding only about 30% in unrealized profit at the current price, which is relatively low. In comparison, the net unrealized profit for long-term holders reached as high as approximately 340% in January 2025.Darkfost also noted that towards the end of the last bear market, long-term holders were collectively in a state of approximately 20% unrealized loss, and the market ultimately experienced a deeper correction. This suggests that the market could still see further corrections in the future, potentially pushing long-term holders back into loss territory. However, this is not necessarily a guaranteed repetition of historical patterns. He advises investors to prepare for both market rallies and corrections.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out in a weekly report analysis that the US 10-year Treasury yield has recently risen to approximately 4.7%, approaching the upper limit of the range over the past five years. The high-interest rate environment is tightening financial conditions, raising financing costs and asset discount rates, and increasing pressure on risk assets.
the overall profitability of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data suggests it is still insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull market, with the risk of another downturn remaining.Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin's Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. This metric represents the proportion of BTC supply whose current market price is higher than its acquisition cost. It has rebounded significantly from the 2026 low of 46.2% on June 30, now approaching 60%. However, the recovery of the supply in profit still needs sustained validation. Historical cycles indicate that the true end of a bear market typically requires two conditions to be met simultaneously:First, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must consistently remain above 1 and not drop below it for several weeks.Second, Bitcoin's Supply in Profit needs to stabilize above 64%.Analysts point out that this cycle has already seen one "false breakout." Between April 28 and June 1 this year, the average LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the Supply in Profit briefly rose to 67%. However, the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the 30-day SMA of the LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, remaining a key risk signal for assessing the strength of the market recovery.While the proportion of BTC in profit is improving, the market needs further confirmation regarding long-term holder behavior and changes in the profit structure before determining whether the current rebound will genuinely transition into a new upward cycle. (Cointelegraph)
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted a significant increase in on-chain activity among the oldest cohort of Bitcoin holders recently. Data shows that BTC holder groups with holding periods of 5 to 7 years and 7 to 10 years have seen their daily UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) movements exceed 5,000 BTC on multiple occasions.Darkfost pointed out that spending UTXOs does not necessarily mean selling. Long-term holders typically move Bitcoin for two main reasons: first, for security purposes, such as transferring UTXOs from an original address when changing wallet addresses; second, to sell assets. However, based on current on-chain data, no significant flow of funds to exchanges has been observed, so there is currently no indication that these long-term holders are engaging in large-scale selling of BTC.It is worth noting that this behavior is occurring as Bitcoin again tests the $60,000 level, a situation similar to market movements observed between February and March this year. The market will continue to monitor whether the activity of long-term holders will further impact the BTC supply and demand dynamics.
According to Odaily, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the current bear market phase for Bitcoin has seen the highest level of realized losses among holders. The 30-day moving average (30DMA) of realized losses peaked at $1.37 billion in February 2026, 19% higher than the $1.15 billion peak during the 2022 cycle. Data shows that since the February peak, Bitcoin realized losses have dropped by 56.5% to approximately $597 million. Meanwhile, the scale of realized profits has only slowly recovered to $257 million. Axel Adler pointed out that loss-driven selling pressure has significantly weakened, but the market has not yet seen sustained demand recovery, with the decline in losses still outpacing the recovery in profits.From a historical cycle comparison, realized losses reached $1.37 billion on February 20, 2026, a new all-time high for this metric. The highest realized loss in the 2022 cycle was $1.15 billion, recorded on June 30, 2022. In terms of realized profits, as of July 23, Bitcoin's realized profit 30DMA stood at $257 million, down 92.7% from the peak of $3.51 billion recorded on December 10, 2024. It is also down 77.7% from the level on October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $124,710. This metric bottomed out at $191 million on June 14, 2026, and has since recovered by 34.7%.Axel Adler stated that profit-driven selling pressure has dropped significantly, and the volume of coins being sold for profit is currently at a low level for this cycle. However, this does not mean that sellers have been completely exhausted, nor does it imply that market demand has recovered. If realized profits consistently rise above the $400 million to $500 million range, it would better confirm a sustained market improvement.Additionally, the Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio has recovered from a low of 0.26 in June to 0.43, but remains below the 1.0 level. The analyst noted that while the absolute scale of realized losses in the current cycle exceeds that of 2022, the relative market pressure is still lower than in 2022. Since Bitcoin's all-time high, realized losses have exceeded realized profits on 190 out of the past 291 days. Axel Adler cautioned that if the profit/loss ratio breaks below 0.26 again, accompanied by a price drop below the cycle low of $58,535 established on June 30, it could signal further escalation of market pressure.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that data shows short-term holders (holding positions for no more than 155 days) have currently been in a state of realized loss for about nine consecutive months, a characteristic typically closer to a bear market environment. According to estimates, the cost basis for short-term holders is approximately $68,800, so the overall situation still faces certain pressure. Currently, as Bitcoin attempts to hold above $65,000, short-term holders are estimated to still be selling at a loss of about 4%.
CryptoQuant 分析师 Darkfost 表示，一张最新图表显示，当前机构相关需求整体明显走弱，主要体现在比特币现货 ETF、财库公司以及 Strategy 三类主体上。
According to CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom, Bitcoin rose from approximately $64,000 to $66,000 within two days, but this rally was primarily driven by leverage trading rather than real capital inflow. On-chain data shows that funding rates briefly turned negative on July 18-19, triggering a short squeeze that ignited the rebound. Subsequently, open interest climbed from approximately $21.2 billion to a new high of $23 billion, indicating that new leverage positions continue to drive the market. Meanwhile, spot trading volume has remained in a "cooling" state since April, and off-exchange stablecoin funds are on the sidelines rather than exiting. In terms of ETFs, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for two consecutive weeks, with single-day inflows of approximately $271 million on July 20 (of which IBIT contributed $116.5 million), showing institutional capital is slowly returning, but not yet enough to drive a recovery in overall spot trading volume. The analyst warned that the current rally structure is fragile; once momentum fades, rapid leverage liquidation could trigger a sharp correction. It is recommended to wait for a substantive recovery in spot trading volume before chasing the rally.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that data shows since November 2021, the Bitcoin balance held by miner-associated over-the-counter (OTC) addresses has decreased from 500,000 to 139,700, a cumulative decline of nearly 72%. This trend has continued for over four years, indicating that the Bitcoin reserves of this group are continuously shrinking.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that after Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in February this year and the MVRV percentile dropped below 10% into the "capitulation zone", this situation has appeared again since June.
According to monitoring by ScenarioX, an analyst at on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's 30-day spot demand has deteriorated again to nearly -170,000 BTC after briefly rebounding to approximately -80,000 BTC in early July. Despite the significant decline in spot demand, the BTC price currently remains relatively stable, supported by eased short-term selling pressure and short covering in the derivatives market. ScenarioX noted that current derivatives demand is insufficient to support a sustained upward trend on its own, and the overall market structure is relatively fragile. If spot selling pressure reignites, it may trigger a sharp downturn; if spot selling remains sluggish, a derivatives-driven technical rebound may continue, but in the absence of substantial spot demand support, such rebounds will most likely end with large-scale long liquidations.