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CryptoQuant’s latest report states that Bitcoin has fallen to a new low of $59,000 in this bear market cycle—only 9% above its realized price of $53,600—and is now approaching the historical bottom range of past bear markets from a valuation perspective.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum amid a sharp deterioration in the macroeconomic environment. This is a significant signal, suggesting the market is currently more in a "Risk-off" phase. Until its on-chain "Impulse" indicator returns above the zero line, every BTC rebound still lacks confirmation.He pointed out that the recently published fourth part of his "Decision Architecture for Bitcoin" focuses on building a macro framework based on the US Dollar Index (DXY), the 10-year US Treasury yield, and the VIX volatility index. The core argument is that not all macro fluctuations will disrupt the on-chain structure, but when macro factors truly enter "dominant mode," the market may temporarily lose upward momentum even if on-chain data is positive.Additionally, CryptoQuant added a dashboard for US spot Bitcoin ETFs this week, covering data such as weekly net inflows, cumulative flow, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, demand changes over the past four weeks, and capital distribution among various funds. Currently, the 30-day momentum of the ETF stands at just $362.8 million, whereas this indicator reached a high of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and hit a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025.Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains a crucial indicator for observing US spot demand. When the index stays consistently above zero, it indicates that US buying is still supporting the market. If it turns negative, even if BTC rises, its upward trend may lack genuine US demand support.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin has recently attempted to break above the $82,000 level three times—but each time failed and retreated. Data shows that during each rally, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1.0 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are consistently taking profits amid upward price movements rather than holding onto their positions. Axel Adler notes that $82,000 is not only a key technical resistance level but also a significant zone of selling pressure from a market-behavior perspective. Currently, this level coincides with Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (200D SMA). Until the 7-day SMA of STH-SOPR sustains above 1.0 for several consecutive days—and until Bitcoin’s daily closing price decisively breaks above its 200-day SMA—the ongoing rally may still be viewed as a selling opportunity. On the macro front, escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to dampen market risk appetite. Fueled by the Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and expectations of “higher-for-longer” interest rates, U.S. equities closed lower across the board on Friday. WTI crude oil futures surged over 4%, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to approximately 4.6%, hitting a year-to-date high.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on X platform that although the U.S.-Iran conflict and inflationary pressures continue to pose challenges to the market, the altcoin market has recently begun to show signs of recovery. After experiencing an overall correction of over 50%, the altcoin sector is gradually regaining activity. This round of adjustment is not only affected by the BTC correction but is also related to market token dilution. Currently, there are approximately 51 million altcoins in the market, with 46% deployed on Solana, 36% on Base, and 10% on BNB Smart Chain. Recently, the overall performance of altcoins listed on Binance has recovered to levels seen since September 2025. Currently, about 21% of altcoins listed on Binance have reclaimed the 200-day moving average, compared to only 2% in February of this year that remained above this key technical level. Darkfost believes this indicates a gradual resurgence of market interest in altcoins, serving as an important signal for investors looking to allocate to altcoins. However, it is still too early to declare the start of an altcoin season, as market liquidity remains limited.
According to an analysis released by CryptoQuant-certified analyst MorenoDV_, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has just generated its first “Early Bull Market” signal since March 2023. Historically, when this indicator transitions from the bear market zone into the early bull market zone, it typically signals that the worst phase of correction is over and that market structure is beginning to recover—similar signals appeared after deep bear markets in early 2019 and early 2023, both of which preceded stronger upward trends. However, this signal should not be interpreted uncritically. In March 2022, the indicator also entered the early bull market zone, yet price subsequently faced rejection—indicating a local top rather than the start of a new bull market. Analysts note that Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a deep bear-market asset, and the rebound in its 30-day moving average suggests improving underlying momentum. At the same time, however, multiple other market indicators are already showing signs of weakness, making this signal less clear-cut than classic early-cycle confirmations. The analyst leans toward interpreting this signal as more likely indicating a local top—unless strong price follow-through confirms the bullish thesis—rather than the onset of a new bull market.
According to The Block, Julio Moreno, Research Director at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, released a report on May 8 stating that Bitcoin has surged over 20% since early April, reaching a three-month high. However, the firm characterizes this rally as a “bear market bounce” and warns that profit-taking pressure may intensify further. On the data front, Bitcoin holders’ daily realized profit reached 14,600 BTC on May 4—the highest level since December 10, 2025. Meanwhile, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has remained consistently above 1.00 since mid-April, indicating the market has entered a sustained profit-taking phase. On a 30-day rolling basis, holders’ net realized profit turned positive at +20,000 BTC—the first time since December 22, 2025—after net losses plunged as deep as -398,000 BTC between February and March. Nonetheless, Moreno notes that the current net profit level of +20,000 BTC remains far below the historical 130,000–200,000 BTC threshold typically required to confirm a bull market transition, reinforcing the view that this is a “bear market bounce” rather than a structural trend reversal. Additionally, the current unrealized profit ratio stands at approximately 18%; historical experience shows that when this indicator rises to elevated levels, holders tend to sell to lock in gains, increasing correction risk.