News linked to both this project and an event.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out in a weekly report analysis that the US 10-year Treasury yield has recently risen to approximately 4.7%, approaching the upper limit of the range over the past five years. The high-interest rate environment is tightening financial conditions, raising financing costs and asset discount rates, and increasing pressure on risk assets.
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that currently, active Bitcoin investors are floating at a loss of about 20% on average, and market sentiment is in a "devaluation" phase, but has not yet reached the deep pressure levels typical of historical bear markets.Darkfost pointed out that the True Market Mean (TMM) is currently around $76,700. This indicator reflects the average cost basis of active circulating BTC supply (excluding coins that have been dormant for a long time, potentially lost, or illiquid). Historically, this level acted as a significant resistance zone in May, where some investors chose to exit the market without incurring losses or with minor losses. Meanwhile, the AVIV Ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) is currently around 0.8, meaning active investors are down approximately 20% from their cost basis. In contrast, during historical bear markets, this indicator typically drops to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to a deeper drawdown of about 40%–50%.Analysis suggests that in this cycle, the entry of institutional funds and ETFs has not changed Bitcoin's cyclical nature; the market continues to operate within its own structural framework. Although significant devaluation pressure is already evident, it may not necessarily need to fall to historical bear market extreme levels to trigger a rebound. Overall, cautious judgment regarding cyclical fluctuations remains necessary.
Odaily Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated in a recent CNBC interview that he remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin, while strongly criticizing Michael Saylor and his strategy of continuously purchasing Bitcoin by financing through preferred stock, arguing that this "financial engineering" approach is negatively impacting the crypto market.Garlinghouse pointed out that Strategy's reliance on issuing preferred stock (such as STRC) to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases essentially acts as a distraction in the market rather than creating long-term value. He emphasized: "Financial engineering does not create long-term value; the long-term value of digital assets comes from real utility." He specifically noted that STRC's stock price has fallen to a discount of approximately 25% from its par value, which he described as a "strong vote of no confidence" in that financing structure. Against the backdrop of market pressure this week, Strategy's common stock hit its lowest level since February 2024, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $59,000.On the market front, a CryptoQuant report indicated that if the dividend structure continues, Strategy's cash buffer has decreased from over seven years to approximately 14 months, suggesting a pause in Bitcoin purchases and a rebuilding of reserve funds. Currently, STRC trading below $100 has also rendered its "issue tokens—buy Bitcoin" funding flywheel temporarily ineffective. However, Benchmark-StoneX analyst Mark Palmer believes this model reflects more of a "decline in efficiency" rather than a systemic breakdown. Meanwhile, Ripple continues to adopt an industry-contrarian perspective, reiterating the distinct value path of its ecosystem asset XRP compared to Bitcoin. (CoinDesk)
CryptoQuant suggests Michael Saylor's Strategy should currently pause further Bitcoin purchases and instead prioritize rebuilding its cash reserves, as its dividend obligations have significantly increased, cash reserves have sharply declined, and unrealized losses on Bitcoin are widening.Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, pointed out that Strategy's preferred stock, STRC, fell to $82.50 last week, a 17.5% discount from its $100 par value, marking its largest historical discount. This pressure stems from the bearish Bitcoin market environment and the company's diminished cash buffer capacity.The report states that Strategy recently repurchased $1.5 billion of its 0% convertible senior notes due 2029, further reducing the cash buffer available to support STRC dividend payments. Meanwhile, the company's cash reserves have declined by 38% since the beginning of 2026.On the other hand, as Strategy issues more STRC to finance Bitcoin purchases, its annualized dividend obligation has risen from approximately $300 million at the start of the year to roughly $1.2 billion currently—a nearly fourfold increase in less than six months. CryptoQuant believes the company should become more selective in its Bitcoin purchases rather than continuing indiscriminate accumulation amid intensifying cash pressures.
Odaily Odaily News CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the biggest risk for Bitcoin is not a crash, but long-term stagnation. Saylor's STRC structure becomes truly dangerous, not when Bitcoin simply crashes, but when Bitcoin undergoes years of sideways consolidation and a prolonged bear market.If the market still believes in the next rally, sharp pullbacks can be endured. However, long-term stagnation weakens the narrative, reduces demand, compresses the MSTR premium, and makes it difficult for Saylor's financing machine to sustain itself. Ki Young Ju indicated that Saylor's real challenge is not just buying more Bitcoin, but providing the market with new reasons for conviction. Ki Young Ju pointed out that, contrary to the "digital gold" narrative, Bitcoin's performance often resembles that of tech stocks.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin weakened rapidly after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and released a relatively hawkish dot plot, falling below the $64,000 mark and dropping about 4% from its intraday high.This meeting marked the Fed's fourth consecutive pause, but the latest dot plot indicates a significant shift towards a hawkish policy path: several officials now expect the possibility of further rate hikes this year, further diminishing the market's pricing of "rate cut expectations." Analysts believe this change has a greater impact than the rate decision itself, directly suppressing risk asset valuations.Market data shows that Bitcoin initially surged to around $66,400 following the announcement, before quickly reversing downward amid heavy selling pressure, hitting a low of approximately $63,870. Trading volume notably expanded, indicating active selling-driven declines. The price is currently consolidating near the lower end of the $63,600–$64,000 range, with no significant inbound capital from bargain hunting.In stark contrast is gold's performance. Spot gold rapidly recovered after briefly dipping to around $4,220, climbing back above the $4,300 level to trade near $4,321, demonstrating strong defensive attributes and capital absorption capacity. Even against a backdrop of easing geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand remains resilient.Market participants pointed out that the core divergence in this round of reaction lies in the repricing of asset attributes: gold completed a swift recovery under the same macroeconomic shock, while Bitcoin failed to reclaim the key level of $64,000, highlighting the higher sensitivity of risk assets to "higher-for-longer interest rates."Overall, the market is transitioning from a phase of "loose expectations supporting risk assets" to one of "hawkish path suppressing valuations," with short-term risk appetite clearly cooling. The key observation point is whether Bitcoin can re-enter the $64,000–$65,000 range with volume confirming stability; otherwise, a weak consolidation structure may persist.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin may have entered a new accumulation zone, but the potential structural bottom for this cycle remains around $48,000. Currently, Bitcoin’s post-adjustment seller risk ratio indicator shows that unprofitable supply is beginning to surpass profitable supply, and unrealized pressure on holders is rising significantly. Meanwhile, the Cumulative Value Destroyed Days (CVDD) valuation model indicates that Bitcoin’s structural bottom for this cycle is approximately $48,000.
CryptoQuant’s latest report states that Bitcoin has fallen to a new low of $59,000 in this bear market cycle—only 9% above its realized price of $53,600—and is now approaching the historical bottom range of past bear markets from a valuation perspective.
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's price has retraced approximately 20% over the past month, with two key on-chain indicators showing sustained market sentiment pressure. Among them, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score has dropped from 0.95 a month ago to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that the previous valuation premium has largely been digested and the market has entered a range more conducive to long-term accumulation.Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day simple moving average of Net Realized Profit/Loss has been in negative territory for 22 consecutive days, meaning the market has been completing transactions at a loss since May 18. The indicator hit a low of approximately -$1.2 billion on June 6 and has since slightly recovered to around -$1.1 billion. Although market pressure is evident, it remains below the extreme levels of approximately -$2.2 billion seen during the 2022 bear market capitulation phase.Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that currently, a large number of holders are selling Bitcoin below their cost basis, reflecting significant market fear and capitulation sentiment. However, the MVRV Z-score remains above 0, suggesting that the market has not yet entered a deeply undervalued zone, nor has it presented a historically significant value trough.He believes that combining these two indicators, while market sentiment is relatively weak, valuations have clearly cooled down. Going forward, key focus points will be whether the Net Realized Profit/Loss can return above the zero line and whether the MVRV Z-score can maintain a positive value. If the MVRV Z-score falls below 0, or realized losses move closer to the extreme levels of 2022 once again, it could signal the onset of a deeper phase of market capitulation.
CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan noted that Bitcoin’s MVRV is currently at 1.1, approaching the historically significant low-valuation zone that has marked major market bottoms. If the price falls further to the $50,000 level, the MVRV could reach 1.0—the full low-valuation threshold. Historical data shows this level appeared at the bottom of bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022, each time serving as the starting point for strong medium- to long-term rebounds.