Analysis: On-chain data points to a potential bear market bottom range of $50,000–$54,000

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently testing its 200-week moving average (200WMA) near $62,400. If this support level breaks down, market focus may shift to the Realized Price—approximately $53,457. The Realized Price represents the network-wide average on-chain cost basis of all Bitcoin holdings. Historically, Bitcoin briefly dipped below this level before establishing cyclical bottoms during the 2011, 2015, 2018–2019, March 2020 crash, and the 2022 bear market. When market prices fall below investors’ average cost basis, it often triggers panic selling and extreme pessimism. From a holdings-structure perspective, “whales” holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have an average cost basis of roughly $54,300, while “super whales” holding over 100,000 BTC have an average cost basis below $49,000. If large holders tend to defend prices near their cost bases, the bear-market bottom could form within the $50,000–$54,000 range. In contrast, retail investors holding less than 1 BTC have an average cost basis below $48,000—meaning they would remain profitable even if prices decline further.