Over 66% of Addresses at a Loss, Polymarket World Cup Championship Market Profits Concentrated Among Few Traders

Among over 194,000 unique trading addresses in the Polymarket market predicting the World Cup champion, nearly 130,000 addresses made incorrect predictions and realized losses, accounting for 66.7% of participants. Of these, 114,000 addresses lost under $100, with an average loss of less than $10; 43 addresses lost over $100,000, with total losses exceeding $15 million. On the profit side, most addresses earned under $100, with an average profit of less than $5. Large gains were primarily concentrated among a few traders, with 54 addresses profiting over $100,000, collectively earning more than $22 million.