Bybit Weekly Report: Probability of Rate Hike Rises to 60%; Peace Talks Cannot Rescue the Crypto Market; DVOL Hits All-Time Low—Caution Advised

Bybit’s latest options weekly report states that BTC rebounded after finding support at the dense $74,000 level last week and is now consolidating near $77,000. A key macro turning point: Nomura has withdrawn its rate-cut expectations, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a rate hike rising to 60%, completely breaking the “ceasefire → rate cuts → BTC rally” logic chain. Barclays, Goldman Sachs, ING, and JPMorgan all confirm that the rise in long-end yields is driven by three structural factors—debt expansion, AI-related investment, and an increase in the neutral interest rate—unrelated to geopolitical tensions. Bullish catalysts continue to accumulate (SpaceX holding 18,712 BTC, the ARMA reserve proposal, and the CLARITY Act), yet price remains unmoved. DVOL has fallen to ~35%, a historical extreme; no strategy is recommended for now—await DVOL’s recovery above 45% before entering.