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The shift of the most steadfast bulls often represents the most noteworthy signal in the market. Alex Altmann, Barclays' global head of equity strategy, who has repeatedly called for "holding stocks steady" during market volatility and accurately timed rebounds, has recently issued a rare cautious warning.In his latest market analysis, Alex Altmann stated that due to multiple pressures from technical overbought conditions, excessive sentiment, and macroeconomic headwinds, he has turned bearish on the short-term outlook for U.S. stocks. He believes the U.S. stock market is currently in the "middle of a hill" of a structural correction, with the biggest concern being the significant disconnect between retail investor sentiment and macroeconomic reality. He drew a comparison to the speculative frenzy of 2021: during that year's market mania, real yields were negative, and cheap money flooded the market. In contrast, financing costs have now surged sharply, and real yields remain high, creating clear pressure on equity valuations.However, the frenzy among retail investors has even surpassed that of 2021. Alex Altmann bluntly stated: "When the market cannot find a single institutional bear, the return curve for the S&P 500 has often already run its course."
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: According to sources, London-based digital bank and financial super app Revolut is quietly seeking a round of secondary equity transactions, targeting a valuation of $115 billion. If successful, this valuation would surpass Barclays and Deutsche Bank, and approach the scale of BNP Paribas.Founded in 2015 and led by CEO Nik Storonsky, Revolut plans to conduct multiple rounds of secondary transactions before its IPO to provide liquidity for internal shareholders while gauging the market's tolerance for its valuation. Storonsky has stated that an IPO is still at least two years away.Based on current revenue of $600 million and profits of $2.3 billion, the $115 billion valuation would give it a price-to-earnings ratio similar to high-growth technology companies. If the transaction goes through, Storonsky's stake would be worth at least $36 billion, placing him among the world's wealthiest fintech founders.Previously, Revolut was already Europe's most valuable private technology company at a valuation of $75 billion. A $115 billion valuation would now propel it into the ranks of top global financial institutions, setting a high bar for its future IPO and signaling investors' optimistic outlook on the company's valuation. (Bloomberg)
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Bybit’s latest options weekly report states that BTC rebounded after finding support at the dense $74,000 level last week and is now consolidating near $77,000. A key macro turning point: Nomura has withdrawn its rate-cut expectations, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a rate hike rising to 60%, completely breaking the “ceasefire → rate cuts → BTC rally” logic chain. Barclays, Goldman Sachs, ING, and JPMorgan all confirm that the rise in long-end yields is driven by three structural factors—debt expansion, AI-related investment, and an increase in the neutral interest rate—unrelated to geopolitical tensions. Bullish catalysts continue to accumulate (SpaceX holding 18,712 BTC, the ARMA reserve proposal, and the CLARITY Act), yet price remains unmoved. DVOL has fallen to ~35%, a historical extreme; no strategy is recommended for now—await DVOL’s recovery above 45% before entering.
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several sovereign wealth funds, universities, and traditional financial institutions have recently disclosed their 13F holdings for the first quarter of 2026.Among them, Mubadala, the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, increased its holdings in the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) from 12.7023 million shares to 14.7219 million shares. The newly added holdings are valued at over $90 million, bringing the total value of its position to nearly $660 million. Meanwhile, its subsidiary, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC), maintained its IBIT position unchanged at 8.2187 million shares, worth approximately $315.8 million.Regarding university funds, Harvard University's endowment fund held 3.0446 million shares of IBIT, valued at around $117 million, a reduction of about 43% compared to the end of 2025. Additionally, Harvard completely liquidated its position in the BlackRock Ethereum spot ETF, which was established last quarter and valued at approximately $86.8 million.Furthermore, Dartmouth College maintained its IBIT holdings unchanged and disclosed for the first time holding approximately 304,800 shares of the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, valued at around $3.67 million, making it one of the first university endowment funds to publicly allocate to a Solana-related ETF.On the traditional financial institution side, institutions such as the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and Barclays continued to increase or adjust their IBIT-related spot and options positions, while Hong Kong-based Laurore reduced its IBIT holdings from 8.7863 million shares to 6.8463 million shares. (The Block)
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According to The Block, several sovereign wealth funds, university endowments, and traditional banks disclosed their 13F holdings for Q1 2026: • Mubadala, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, increased its position in the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) from 12.7 million shares to 14.72 million shares—adding over $90 million—bringing its total holding value to approximately $566 million (a 16% increase quarter-on-quarter). Its subsidiary, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC), maintained its IBIT position unchanged at 8.21 million shares, valued at approximately $316 million. • University endowments’ crypto ETF holdings remained largely stable. • Traditional financial institutions actively rebalanced their positions: Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) increased its spot IBIT holdings while hedging with put/call options; Scotiabank sold off Trump-related Bitcoin stocks and added 214,000 IBIT shares; Barclays held approximately 4.46 million shares of spot IBIT and deployed a large options position; Hong Kong–based Laurore reduced its IBIT holdings from 8.78 million shares to 6.85 million shares.
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crypto wallet provider Ledger has suspended its US IPO plans, citing unfavorable current market conditions. (CoinDesk)
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According to CoinDesk, French crypto hardware wallet company Ledger has suspended its U.S. IPO plans due to unfavorable market conditions. Sources familiar with the matter said Ledger was previously valued at approximately $4 billion and had engaged Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and Barclays as IPO advisors—but it has not yet filed any registration documents with the SEC. The company may instead consider private fundraising. Earlier, Kraken also paused its IPO citing market conditions, while publicly listed BitGo’s stock price has fallen roughly 36% from its offering price, indicating a broad cooling of enthusiasm among crypto firms for U.S. listings.
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