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Odaily News [email protected] posted on the X platform that the options settlement data for July 31 shows that 149,000 BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.28, the max pain point at $64,000, and a notional value of $9.6 billion; 435,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.63, the max pain point at $1,850, and a notional value of $830 million. Bitcoin fluctuated around $64,000 this week. As mentioned last week, the price range above $65,000 is a high-volume area formed during the early-year rally, and there is some resistance there.The U.S. stock market was quite volatile this week, but when U.S. stocks fell, funds did not flow into the crypto market, and the rebound did not drive the crypto market up either. Currently, capital inflows into crypto are limited, with trading volumes of some crypto-related U.S. stock products even surpassing many crypto assets, so conditions for an upward move are not in place. Looking at the main options data, 30% of options expired this week. On the call side, Gex is relatively dispersed, while on the put side, Gex is relatively concentrated. This month, BTC's PCR is only 0.26, with extremely low put open interest, while Ethereum's put open interest has remained relatively high.Overall IV has remained at a relatively low level for a quarter now. In Q3, we can observe rebounds when capital inflows occur. Crypto has been in an 8-month bear market, and trading attention in U.S. stocks has taken the lead. In the short term, some options can be sold, with the main trading focus placed on U.S. stocks.
the overall profitability of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data suggests it is still insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull market, with the risk of another downturn remaining.Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin's Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. This metric represents the proportion of BTC supply whose current market price is higher than its acquisition cost. It has rebounded significantly from the 2026 low of 46.2% on June 30, now approaching 60%. However, the recovery of the supply in profit still needs sustained validation. Historical cycles indicate that the true end of a bear market typically requires two conditions to be met simultaneously:First, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must consistently remain above 1 and not drop below it for several weeks.Second, Bitcoin's Supply in Profit needs to stabilize above 64%.Analysts point out that this cycle has already seen one "false breakout." Between April 28 and June 1 this year, the average LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the Supply in Profit briefly rose to 67%. However, the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the 30-day SMA of the LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, remaining a key risk signal for assessing the strength of the market recovery.While the proportion of BTC in profit is improving, the market needs further confirmation regarding long-term holder behavior and changes in the profit structure before determining whether the current rebound will genuinely transition into a new upward cycle. (Cointelegraph)
According to Odaily, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the current bear market phase for Bitcoin has seen the highest level of realized losses among holders. The 30-day moving average (30DMA) of realized losses peaked at $1.37 billion in February 2026, 19% higher than the $1.15 billion peak during the 2022 cycle. Data shows that since the February peak, Bitcoin realized losses have dropped by 56.5% to approximately $597 million. Meanwhile, the scale of realized profits has only slowly recovered to $257 million. Axel Adler pointed out that loss-driven selling pressure has significantly weakened, but the market has not yet seen sustained demand recovery, with the decline in losses still outpacing the recovery in profits.From a historical cycle comparison, realized losses reached $1.37 billion on February 20, 2026, a new all-time high for this metric. The highest realized loss in the 2022 cycle was $1.15 billion, recorded on June 30, 2022. In terms of realized profits, as of July 23, Bitcoin's realized profit 30DMA stood at $257 million, down 92.7% from the peak of $3.51 billion recorded on December 10, 2024. It is also down 77.7% from the level on October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $124,710. This metric bottomed out at $191 million on June 14, 2026, and has since recovered by 34.7%.Axel Adler stated that profit-driven selling pressure has dropped significantly, and the volume of coins being sold for profit is currently at a low level for this cycle. However, this does not mean that sellers have been completely exhausted, nor does it imply that market demand has recovered. If realized profits consistently rise above the $400 million to $500 million range, it would better confirm a sustained market improvement.Additionally, the Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio has recovered from a low of 0.26 in June to 0.43, but remains below the 1.0 level. The analyst noted that while the absolute scale of realized losses in the current cycle exceeds that of 2022, the relative market pressure is still lower than in 2022. Since Bitcoin's all-time high, realized losses have exceeded realized profits on 190 out of the past 291 days. Axel Adler cautioned that if the profit/loss ratio breaks below 0.26 again, accompanied by a price drop below the cycle low of $58,535 established on June 30, it could signal further escalation of market pressure.
According to options expiry data released by [email protected] (@BTC__options), a total of 19,000 BTC options expired this week, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.89, Max Pain at $64,500, and a notional value of $1.2 billion; 125,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.25, Max Pain at $1,875, and a notional value of $230 million. In terms of market conditions, BTC briefly broke through 66K this week but failed to hold. The 65K to 80K range is a high-volume trading zone from the early year's rally, indicating significant upside pressure. Overall IV has retreated to the 35% level, leaving fewer trading opportunities. Notably, the ETH put option ratio has exceeded 1 for 6 consecutive weeks, the longest duration on record, indicating sustained high bearish sentiment in the market. However, some traders are also taking the opportunity to sell Puts to buy the dip. Cryptocurrencies have experienced an 8-month bear market. From a cyclical perspective, the second half of the year may see a certain rebound.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin miners are currently facing severe operational pressure, with their financial health indicators dropping to levels seen during historical bear market high-pressure phases. Analyzing multiple data dimensions including miner issuance revenue, block time, transaction fees, and overall revenue, the Miner Financial Health Ratio (7-day average) is currently fluctuating within the 10% to 30% range, reflecting significant pressure on mining enterprises' profitability, as similar low levels typically only appear near peak bear market periods.
Glassnode stated that the extent to which long-term holders dominate selling pressure can be assessed by observing exchange fund flows. The indicator "Long-Term Holder/Short-Term Holder Exchange Realized Profit/Loss Relative Ratio" shows that among the funds currently flowing into exchanges, over 65% come from long-term holders selling at a loss.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk, the current BTC exchange leverage ratio has breached the top 5% range of historical extremes, far exceeding the historical average, while exchange stablecoin reserves continue to shrink, spot liquidity is severely insufficient, and the scale of borrowed margin has significantly surpassed the spot buy orders that can be absorbed. The analyst noted that this rally is built on borrowed margin lacking underlying support, the market structure is extremely fragile, and deleveraging events are not a matter of probability, but a mathematical inevitability of mean reversion. Once market makers trigger liquidation, prices will face severe downward shock. Investors are advised to reduce leverage exposure, protect spot positions, and consider opening new positions only after leverage indicators decline.
According to on-chain analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), the proportion of loss-making UTXOs in the Bitcoin market continues to expand, and the loss/profit UTXO ratio has risen to an extreme range, a level that has historically only appeared during periods of deep stress in bear markets. Darkfost pointed out that this indicator measures market sentiment by calculating the ratio of the number of profit and loss UTXOs, is not distorted by the absolute value of BTC price, and has strong historical consistency. Current readings indicate significant holding loss pressure, suggesting certain accumulation value from a long-term perspective; however, caution is warranted when market sentiment shifts, as a rapid climb in the number of profit-making UTXOs could drive the ratio sharply higher, which may then signal an intermediate top.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin long-term holders are gradually transferring holdings to a new round of buyers. Glassnode's RHODL Ratio began to decline after reaching a historical second-high of 6.5 in early July and has now fallen below 6, but the Bitcoin price remains trading sideways around the $60,000 range, with no significant panic selling observed.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that data shows the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio has once again fallen into extreme negative territory, briefly dropping below -20. Although it has since recovered slightly, historically this level typically corresponds to extreme market pessimism towards Bitcoin.
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that currently, active Bitcoin investors are floating at a loss of about 20% on average, and market sentiment is in a "devaluation" phase, but has not yet reached the deep pressure levels typical of historical bear markets.Darkfost pointed out that the True Market Mean (TMM) is currently around $76,700. This indicator reflects the average cost basis of active circulating BTC supply (excluding coins that have been dormant for a long time, potentially lost, or illiquid). Historically, this level acted as a significant resistance zone in May, where some investors chose to exit the market without incurring losses or with minor losses. Meanwhile, the AVIV Ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) is currently around 0.8, meaning active investors are down approximately 20% from their cost basis. In contrast, during historical bear markets, this indicator typically drops to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to a deeper drawdown of about 40%–50%.Analysis suggests that in this cycle, the entry of institutional funds and ETFs has not changed Bitcoin's cyclical nature; the market continues to operate within its own structural framework. Although significant devaluation pressure is already evident, it may not necessarily need to fall to historical bear market extreme levels to trigger a rebound. Overall, cautious judgment regarding cyclical fluctuations remains necessary.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on platform X, expressing some surprise that VOO did not appear on the list. He noted that "SPYM & Chill" doesn't have the same ring to it, but he will make do. SPYM's expense ratio is 2 basis points; even the government is focused on costs.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin Net Supply Ratio has been in negative territory for a consecutive week, recently dropping to -0.075, triggering a buy signal. This indicator is based on the profit/loss status of Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXO), used to evaluate the profit or loss level of the overall market supply, thereby assisting in judging whether an accumulation phase is forming.
CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ pointed out in a post that the current reading of the Bitcoin UTXO Realized Profit/Loss model has fallen into the range commonly seen during historical bottoms, indicating the market is undergoing a deeper internal cleanup. However, the analyst emphasized that this does not mean the bottom has been confirmed—the 365-day moving average needs to decline further to prove that the market's long-term profit structure has been fully reset, rather than being merely a short-term oversold reaction. Although a brief rebound triggered by a short squeeze may occur currently, if the profit/loss ratio fails to rebuild sustainably, it should not be regarded as a signal of structural recovery. Overall, signs of BTC internal cleanup are emerging, but historical patterns indicate the market may still need to endure more pressure before fully exiting this bear market.
Bitget has announced an upgrade to its CFD copy trading feature, introducing two new position-following modes and independent risk management settings—evolving copy trading from “simple strategy replication” to “personalized risk management.” While referencing professional strategies, users can now establish a foundational risk control layer aligned with their individual risk tolerance. Regarding position management, two new modes have been added: “Fixed-Ratio Copy Trading” and “Fixed-Lot Copy Trading.” Under the Fixed-Ratio mode, the system intelligently calculates position sizes based on the capital ratio between the user and the lead trader, ensuring proportional risk alignment. Under the Fixed-Lot mode, users can set a fixed order size per trade (e.g., 0.01 lots), enabling small-capital users to cost-effectively test a trader’s actual win rate. On the risk control front, this upgrade introduces independent take-profit and stop-loss settings. Users can now define personalized take-profit and stop-loss amounts for their own accounts when copying any trader—even if the lead trader remains in open positions, the system automatically triggers the user’s stop-loss. Additionally, a new “Maximum Lot Size per Copy Trade” limit has been added to prevent excessively large positions triggered automatically due to high account equity.
According to The Block, K33’s latest report states that Bitcoin rebounded approximately 6% last week after two consecutive weeks of sharp declines, currently hovering near $65,000. The report notes that as of June 6, only 218,400 bitcoins—dormant for over two years—were reactivated in 2026, significantly lower than同期 levels over the past two years, indicating weak on-chain selling pressure.
: HyperLiquid has announced an upgrade to the AQAv2 mechanism. The system will use on-chain automated trading to maintain a dynamic 1:9 balance of USDC between two core addresses in each HyperEVM block, corresponding to the contract execution layer and the treasury reserve layer, respectively.According to the mechanism design, this ratio is used for functional stratification between "high-frequency trading and liquidation liquidity" and "long-term reserves and yield pools," aiming to enhance system stability and isolate trading risks.On the technical side, the balancing process is executed automatically by the system without manual intervention. Circle is responsible for the technical deployment, while Coinbase undertakes the treasury deployment and management.Regarding the yield mechanism, AQAv2 stipulates that stablecoin issuers must distribute approximately 90% of their cost-adjusted reserve earnings generated within the Hyperliquid ecosystem to the protocol. Settlement occurs on a 30-day cumulative cycle, and the earnings will be automatically transferred to the Assistance Fund on the 8th day after the cycle ends.Additionally, the mechanism includes a transition period arrangement:1. Start of yield accrual: August 26;2. First yield payment: October 3.The market believes this design marks the evolution of stablecoins from traditional custody structures toward an on-chain infrastructure model characterized by "protocolized capital stratification + automated yield distribution."
on-chain analyst PlanB posted on Platform X, stating that despite not wanting to downplay Ethereum, based on the ETH/BTC trend, Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin over the past decade. The current ETH/BTC ratio remains around 0.026, a level similar to March 2016. Ethereum did not experience a significant surge during the 2023/2024 crypto bull market, a pattern also seen in 2017 and 2021. Even now, Ethereum still lacks upward momentum relative to Bitcoin.
According to GreeksLive, today 21,000 BTC options expire, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.66, maximum pain at $78,500, and notional value of $1.6 billion; 129,000 ETH options expire, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.92, maximum pain at $2,200, and notional value of $280 million. This week, BTC concluded a one-and-a-half-month rally amid muted market conditions; expiring BTC and ETH options each account for only ~5% of total open interest. BTC’s maximum pain level lies close to the current spot price, implying relatively strong gamma/pin risk; ETH’s expiry volume is half that of last week, and its current spot price sits below maximum pain—short-term implied volatility (IV) is highly likely to decline post-expiry. IV across all major maturities declined broadly: BTC IV fell below 35%, ETH IV fell below 50%, and the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) rose slightly. On the large-trade front, whales concentrated positions in bearish put spreads (5,000-lot 75K/71K puts expiring end-May), totaling nearly $200 million in notional value. Overall, volatility expectations remain low, and market activity falls short of expectations.
According to CoinDesk, approximately $6.25 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts will expire on May 29, with the $75,000 strike price hosting the largest put position—valued at roughly $394 million—and the $80,000 strike price holding the largest call position—valued at approximately $532 million. The current maximum pain price stands at $75,000, about 3% below Bitcoin’s current price of $77,250. Data shows that a total of 80,535 contracts are set to expire, comprising 43,184 calls and 37,351 puts, yielding a Put/Call Ratio of 0.86—indicating the market remains moderately bullish overall. Notably, the Bitcoin call option expiring on May 29, 2026, with a $82,000 strike price emerged as Thursday’s most actively traded single options product, with around 1,600 contracts traded and a notional value of approximately $126 million—suggesting some traders are betting on an upside breakout for Bitcoin.