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UBS: SK Hynix 1.66x P/B Ratio Implies ROE Less Than 20%, Actually Can Earn 40%
According to TechFlow Research, UBS pointed out in its research report on July 29 that SK Hynix's stock price has fallen 52% from its high on June 22, with a current price-to-book ratio of only 1.66x, implying a long-term ROE of 18.9%. However, UBS predicts the average ROE from 2027 to 2031 will reach 40.2%, a difference of 21 percentage points between the two. DRAM bit demand growth is expected to increase from 22% in 2026 to 36% in 2027, HBM capacity will increase from 230,000 wafers/month at the end of 2026 to 270,000 wafers/month at the end of 2027, and SK Hynix will maintain a 48% shipment share in the HBM industry in 2026. UBS believes the market valuation downward revision lacks basis, AI agents are driving accelerated memory demand, 10 long-term agreements have been signed, and although LTAs suppress ASP in the short term, they benefit profit margins in the long term. UBS maintains a Buy rating, lowering the target price from 3.2 million Korean won to 3 million Korean won, expects to launch a share buyback of about 12 trillion Korean won in the second half of 2026, and will use 50% of free cash flow for shareholder returns in the long term.
Grayscale: HYPE Still Undervalued, Forward P/E Ratio Approximately 15 to 18 Times
Grayscale stated HYPE's forward P/E ratio is approximately 15 to 18 times. Hyperliquid possesses real cash flow and can therefore be valued like a stock, but the valuation is based on earnings per token rather than earnings per share. Based on this, compared with fintech peers such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle, HYPE still appears inexpensive. Market data shows that HYPE is currently trading at $55.32, down 1.5% in the past 24 hours.
Analyst: Current active BTC investors under 20% loss on average, cyclical adjustment still ongoing
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that currently, active Bitcoin investors are floating at a loss of about 20% on average, and market sentiment is in a "devaluation" phase, but has not yet reached the deep pressure levels typical of historical bear markets.Darkfost pointed out that the True Market Mean (TMM) is currently around $76,700. This indicator reflects the average cost basis of active circulating BTC supply (excluding coins that have been dormant for a long time, potentially lost, or illiquid). Historically, this level acted as a significant resistance zone in May, where some investors chose to exit the market without incurring losses or with minor losses. Meanwhile, the AVIV Ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) is currently around 0.8, meaning active investors are down approximately 20% from their cost basis. In contrast, during historical bear markets, this indicator typically drops to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to a deeper drawdown of about 40%–50%.Analysis suggests that in this cycle, the entry of institutional funds and ETFs has not changed Bitcoin's cyclical nature; the market continues to operate within its own structural framework. Although significant devaluation pressure is already evident, it may not necessarily need to fall to historical bear market extreme levels to trigger a rebound. Overall, cautious judgment regarding cyclical fluctuations remains necessary.
“New Stock God” Serenity: AAOI, SIVE, Foci, and Shunsin Are the 4 Stocks with the Best Risk-Reward Ratio at Current Levels
“New Stock God” Serenity shared on platform X his top 4 most favored stocks currently: AAOI, SIVE, Foci, and Shunsin, stating that at their current market capitalizations, these targets offer the best risk-reward ratio.He indicated that AAOI benefits from capacity expansion in 2027 and growing demand for silicon photonics; SIVE’s photonics business revenue pipeline is growing rapidly with high profit margins; Foci is a key participant in the NVIDIA and TSMC FAU supply chain; and Shunsin is deeply involved in the CPO and photonics packaging business undertaken by Foxconn, yet its related value has not been fully priced in by the market.Additionally, Serenity listed XFAB as a “runner-up” target, believing it stands to benefit from the EU's Chips Act 2 and the development of the silicon photonics industry.
Greeks.live: Today, 25,000 BTC options and 274,000 ETH options expire.
According to analyst [email protected] (@BTC__options), the options expiry data for May 15 is as follows: For BTC, 25,000 contracts expired, with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.59, a maximum pain point at $80,000, and a notional value of $2 billion. For ETH, 274,000 contracts expired, with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.4, a maximum pain point at $2,300, and a notional value of $620 million. This week, Bitcoin traded sideways near $80,000, exhibiting clear technical support; market attention remained low, with only 6% of BTC options expiring, versus 11% for ETH. BTC’s key-term implied volatility (IV) stood at approximately 35%, while ETH’s was around 50%. Skew has fluctuated minimally over the past month, reflecting neutral directional sentiment, and options activity remains extremely low—approximately 20% of open interest is expected to remain by end-May and roughly 30% by end-June. Overall, Bitcoin performed relatively well in both price and market热度 during Q2 2024, supported by favorable legal, regulatory, and macroeconomic developments. However, market热度 still falls short of expectations. Against this long-term bullish backdrop, Bitcoin remains the primary trading instrument, and positioning in medium-to-long-dated options is widely viewed as a reasonable strategy.
Greeks.live: 149,000 BTC options, with a notional value of $9.6 billion, expire today
Odaily News [email protected] posted on the X platform that the options settlement data for July 31 shows that 149,000 BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.28, the max pain point at $64,000, and a notional value of $9.6 billion; 435,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.63, the max pain point at $1,850, and a notional value of $830 million. Bitcoin fluctuated around $64,000 this week. As mentioned last week, the price range above $65,000 is a high-volume area formed during the early-year rally, and there is some resistance there.The U.S. stock market was quite volatile this week, but when U.S. stocks fell, funds did not flow into the crypto market, and the rebound did not drive the crypto market up either. Currently, capital inflows into crypto are limited, with trading volumes of some crypto-related U.S. stock products even surpassing many crypto assets, so conditions for an upward move are not in place. Looking at the main options data, 30% of options expired this week. On the call side, Gex is relatively dispersed, while on the put side, Gex is relatively concentrated. This month, BTC's PCR is only 0.26, with extremely low put open interest, while Ethereum's put open interest has remained relatively high.Overall IV has remained at a relatively low level for a quarter now. In Q3, we can observe rebounds when capital inflows occur. Crypto has been in an 8-month bear market, and trading attention in U.S. stocks has taken the lead. In the short term, some options can be sold, with the main trading focus placed on U.S. stocks.
Analysis: Bitcoin's Supply in Profit Approaches 60%, But Confirming a Bull Market is Still Premature
the overall profitability of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data suggests it is still insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull market, with the risk of another downturn remaining.Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin's Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. This metric represents the proportion of BTC supply whose current market price is higher than its acquisition cost. It has rebounded significantly from the 2026 low of 46.2% on June 30, now approaching 60%. However, the recovery of the supply in profit still needs sustained validation. Historical cycles indicate that the true end of a bear market typically requires two conditions to be met simultaneously:First, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must consistently remain above 1 and not drop below it for several weeks.Second, Bitcoin's Supply in Profit needs to stabilize above 64%.Analysts point out that this cycle has already seen one "false breakout." Between April 28 and June 1 this year, the average LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the Supply in Profit briefly rose to 67%. However, the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the 30-day SMA of the LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, remaining a key risk signal for assessing the strength of the market recovery.While the proportion of BTC in profit is improving, the market needs further confirmation regarding long-term holder behavior and changes in the profit structure before determining whether the current rebound will genuinely transition into a new upward cycle. (Cointelegraph)
Bitcoin Selling Pressure Easing? Realized Losses Drop 56% from Peak, but Demand Recovery Remains Weak
According to Odaily, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the current bear market phase for Bitcoin has seen the highest level of realized losses among holders. The 30-day moving average (30DMA) of realized losses peaked at $1.37 billion in February 2026, 19% higher than the $1.15 billion peak during the 2022 cycle. Data shows that since the February peak, Bitcoin realized losses have dropped by 56.5% to approximately $597 million. Meanwhile, the scale of realized profits has only slowly recovered to $257 million. Axel Adler pointed out that loss-driven selling pressure has significantly weakened, but the market has not yet seen sustained demand recovery, with the decline in losses still outpacing the recovery in profits.From a historical cycle comparison, realized losses reached $1.37 billion on February 20, 2026, a new all-time high for this metric. The highest realized loss in the 2022 cycle was $1.15 billion, recorded on June 30, 2022. In terms of realized profits, as of July 23, Bitcoin's realized profit 30DMA stood at $257 million, down 92.7% from the peak of $3.51 billion recorded on December 10, 2024. It is also down 77.7% from the level on October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $124,710. This metric bottomed out at $191 million on June 14, 2026, and has since recovered by 34.7%.Axel Adler stated that profit-driven selling pressure has dropped significantly, and the volume of coins being sold for profit is currently at a low level for this cycle. However, this does not mean that sellers have been completely exhausted, nor does it imply that market demand has recovered. If realized profits consistently rise above the $400 million to $500 million range, it would better confirm a sustained market improvement.Additionally, the Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio has recovered from a low of 0.26 in June to 0.43, but remains below the 1.0 level. The analyst noted that while the absolute scale of realized losses in the current cycle exceeds that of 2022, the relative market pressure is still lower than in 2022. Since Bitcoin's all-time high, realized losses have exceeded realized profits on 190 out of the past 291 days. Axel Adler cautioned that if the profit/loss ratio breaks below 0.26 again, accompanied by a price drop below the cycle low of $58,535 established on June 30, it could signal further escalation of market pressure.
Greeks.live: Bitcoin and Ethereum Options with $1.43 Billion Notional Value Expire and Settle Today
According to options expiry data released by [email protected] (@BTC__options), a total of 19,000 BTC options expired this week, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.89, Max Pain at $64,500, and a notional value of $1.2 billion; 125,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.25, Max Pain at $1,875, and a notional value of $230 million. In terms of market conditions, BTC briefly broke through 66K this week but failed to hold. The 65K to 80K range is a high-volume trading zone from the early year's rally, indicating significant upside pressure. Overall IV has retreated to the 35% level, leaving fewer trading opportunities. Notably, the ETH put option ratio has exceeded 1 for 6 consecutive weeks, the longest duration on record, indicating sustained high bearish sentiment in the market. However, some traders are also taking the opportunity to sell Puts to buy the dip. Cryptocurrencies have experienced an 8-month bear market. From a cyclical perspective, the second half of the year may see a certain rebound.
CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Miner Financial Pressure Intensifies, Distress Approaching Bear Market Levels
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin miners are currently facing severe operational pressure, with their financial health indicators dropping to levels seen during historical bear market high-pressure phases. Analyzing multiple data dimensions including miner issuance revenue, block time, transaction fees, and overall revenue, the Miner Financial Health Ratio (7-day average) is currently fluctuating within the 10% to 30% range, reflecting significant pressure on mining enterprises' profitability, as similar low levels typically only appear near peak bear market periods.
Analysis: Long-term holders' loss-making inflows to exchanges account for over 65%, selling pressure still dominates exchange fund flows.
Glassnode stated that the extent to which long-term holders dominate selling pressure can be assessed by observing exchange fund flows. The indicator "Long-Term Holder/Short-Term Holder Exchange Realized Profit/Loss Relative Ratio" shows that among the funds currently flowing into exchanges, over 65% come from long-term holders selling at a loss.
Greeks.live: Bitcoin and Ethereum Options with $1.43 Billion Notional Value Expire and Settle Today
According to options expiry data released by [email protected] (@BTC__options), a total of 19,000 BTC options expired this week, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.89, Max Pain at $64,500, and a notional value of $1.2 billion; 125,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.25, Max Pain at $1,875, and a notional value of $230 million. In terms of market conditions, BTC briefly broke through 66K this week but failed to hold. The 65K to 80K range is a high-volume trading zone from the early year's rally, indicating significant upside pressure. Overall IV has retreated to the 35% level, leaving fewer trading opportunities. Notably, the ETH put option ratio has exceeded 1 for 6 consecutive weeks, the longest duration on record, indicating sustained high bearish sentiment in the market. However, some traders are also taking the opportunity to sell Puts to buy the dip. Cryptocurrencies have experienced an 8-month bear market. From a cyclical perspective, the second half of the year may see a certain rebound.
Binance Adjusts Collateral Rates for Multiple Assets and Updates Futures Leverage & Margin Tiers
Odaily Odaily News, according to an official announcement, Binance will update the collateral rate and tiered collateral rate for Portfolio Margin and PMPro at 2026-07-24 06:00 UTC (14:00 Beijing time). The affected assets include ALGO, PUMP, WLD, JTO, TRUMP, etc. In addition, Binance Futures will adjust the leverage and margin tiers for several USDⓈ-M perpetual contracts at 06:30 UTC (14:30 Beijing time) on the same day. The contracts include C98USDT, CHRUSDT, LQTYUSDT, NILUSDT, USUALUSDT, SPELLUSDT, ONEUSDT, AEVOUSDT, CGPTUSDT, BANKUSDT, GUNUSDT, LAUSDT, OPNUSDT, KATUSDT, STARUSDT, and ZILUSDT. The announcement reminds users that changes in collateral rates may affect the Unified Maintenance Margin Ratio (uniMMR) and could lead to a risk of position liquidation.
Bitget CFD Launches Tiered Margin Ratio Feature
Bitget CFD has launched the tiered margin rate feature, applicable to all CFD trading instruments including forex, precious metals, stock indices, and commodities. After this feature goes live, the margin occupied by CFD instruments will be calculated in tiers based on the size of the notional exposure of account positions. The larger the exposure, the higher the corresponding margin rate.
Bitget CFD Copy Trading Function Upgraded to Support Independent Take-Profit/Stop-Loss and Multi-Dimensional Position Sizing
Bitget has announced an upgrade to its CFD copy trading feature, introducing two new position-following modes and independent risk management settings—evolving copy trading from “simple strategy replication” to “personalized risk management.” While referencing professional strategies, users can now establish a foundational risk control layer aligned with their individual risk tolerance. Regarding position management, two new modes have been added: “Fixed-Ratio Copy Trading” and “Fixed-Lot Copy Trading.” Under the Fixed-Ratio mode, the system intelligently calculates position sizes based on the capital ratio between the user and the lead trader, ensuring proportional risk alignment. Under the Fixed-Lot mode, users can set a fixed order size per trade (e.g., 0.01 lots), enabling small-capital users to cost-effectively test a trader’s actual win rate. On the risk control front, this upgrade introduces independent take-profit and stop-loss settings. Users can now define personalized take-profit and stop-loss amounts for their own accounts when copying any trader—even if the lead trader remains in open positions, the system automatically triggers the user’s stop-loss. Additionally, a new “Maximum Lot Size per Copy Trade” limit has been added to prevent excessively large positions triggered automatically due to high account equity.
Aster Adjusts ASTER Buyback and Burn Ratio to 198%
Aster announced an update to the ASTER tokenomics, increasing the buyback and burn ratio to 198%. Starting today at 12:00 UTC, 99% of the platform’s daily transaction fees will be used to buy back ASTER tokens, and an equivalent amount of ASTER tokens will be burned 1:1 from the reserve, enhancing staking incentives and driving the token toward a deflationary trajectory.
HyperLiquid Upgrades to AQAv2 Mechanism: USDC Balances in Contract and Treasury Addresses Maintain Dynamic 1:9 Ratio
: HyperLiquid has announced an upgrade to the AQAv2 mechanism. The system will use on-chain automated trading to maintain a dynamic 1:9 balance of USDC between two core addresses in each HyperEVM block, corresponding to the contract execution layer and the treasury reserve layer, respectively.According to the mechanism design, this ratio is used for functional stratification between "high-frequency trading and liquidation liquidity" and "long-term reserves and yield pools," aiming to enhance system stability and isolate trading risks.On the technical side, the balancing process is executed automatically by the system without manual intervention. Circle is responsible for the technical deployment, while Coinbase undertakes the treasury deployment and management.Regarding the yield mechanism, AQAv2 stipulates that stablecoin issuers must distribute approximately 90% of their cost-adjusted reserve earnings generated within the Hyperliquid ecosystem to the protocol. Settlement occurs on a 30-day cumulative cycle, and the earnings will be automatically transferred to the Assistance Fund on the 8th day after the cycle ends.Additionally, the mechanism includes a transition period arrangement:1. Start of yield accrual: August 26;2. First yield payment: October 3.The market believes this design marks the evolution of stablecoins from traditional custody structures toward an on-chain infrastructure model characterized by "protocolized capital stratification + automated yield distribution."
Related news
UBS: SK Hynix 1.66x P/B Ratio Implies ROE Less Than 20%, Actually Can Earn 40%
According to TechFlow Research, UBS pointed out in its research report on July 29 that SK Hynix's stock price has fallen 52% from its high on June 22, with a current price-to-book ratio of only 1.66x, implying a long-term ROE of 18.9%. However, UBS predicts the average ROE from 2027 to 2031 will reach 40.2%, a difference of 21 percentage points between the two. DRAM bit demand growth is expected to increase from 22% in 2026 to 36% in 2027, HBM capacity will increase from 230,000 wafers/month at the end of 2026 to 270,000 wafers/month at the end of 2027, and SK Hynix will maintain a 48% shipment share in the HBM industry in 2026. UBS believes the market valuation downward revision lacks basis, AI agents are driving accelerated memory demand, 10 long-term agreements have been signed, and although LTAs suppress ASP in the short term, they benefit profit margins in the long term. UBS maintains a Buy rating, lowering the target price from 3.2 million Korean won to 3 million Korean won, expects to launch a share buyback of about 12 trillion Korean won in the second half of 2026, and will use 50% of free cash flow for shareholder returns in the long term.
Greeks.live: 149,000 BTC options, with a notional value of $9.6 billion, expire today
Odaily News [email protected] posted on the X platform that the options settlement data for July 31 shows that 149,000 BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.28, the max pain point at $64,000, and a notional value of $9.6 billion; 435,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.63, the max pain point at $1,850, and a notional value of $830 million. Bitcoin fluctuated around $64,000 this week. As mentioned last week, the price range above $65,000 is a high-volume area formed during the early-year rally, and there is some resistance there.The U.S. stock market was quite volatile this week, but when U.S. stocks fell, funds did not flow into the crypto market, and the rebound did not drive the crypto market up either. Currently, capital inflows into crypto are limited, with trading volumes of some crypto-related U.S. stock products even surpassing many crypto assets, so conditions for an upward move are not in place. Looking at the main options data, 30% of options expired this week. On the call side, Gex is relatively dispersed, while on the put side, Gex is relatively concentrated. This month, BTC's PCR is only 0.26, with extremely low put open interest, while Ethereum's put open interest has remained relatively high.Overall IV has remained at a relatively low level for a quarter now. In Q3, we can observe rebounds when capital inflows occur. Crypto has been in an 8-month bear market, and trading attention in U.S. stocks has taken the lead. In the short term, some options can be sold, with the main trading focus placed on U.S. stocks.
Grayscale: HYPE Still Undervalued, Forward P/E Ratio Approximately 15 to 18 Times
Grayscale stated HYPE's forward P/E ratio is approximately 15 to 18 times. Hyperliquid possesses real cash flow and can therefore be valued like a stock, but the valuation is based on earnings per token rather than earnings per share. Based on this, compared with fintech peers such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle, HYPE still appears inexpensive. Market data shows that HYPE is currently trading at $55.32, down 1.5% in the past 24 hours.
Analysis: Bitcoin's Supply in Profit Approaches 60%, But Confirming a Bull Market is Still Premature
the overall profitability of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data suggests it is still insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull market, with the risk of another downturn remaining.Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin's Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. This metric represents the proportion of BTC supply whose current market price is higher than its acquisition cost. It has rebounded significantly from the 2026 low of 46.2% on June 30, now approaching 60%. However, the recovery of the supply in profit still needs sustained validation. Historical cycles indicate that the true end of a bear market typically requires two conditions to be met simultaneously:First, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must consistently remain above 1 and not drop below it for several weeks.Second, Bitcoin's Supply in Profit needs to stabilize above 64%.Analysts point out that this cycle has already seen one "false breakout." Between April 28 and June 1 this year, the average LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the Supply in Profit briefly rose to 67%. However, the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the 30-day SMA of the LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, remaining a key risk signal for assessing the strength of the market recovery.While the proportion of BTC in profit is improving, the market needs further confirmation regarding long-term holder behavior and changes in the profit structure before determining whether the current rebound will genuinely transition into a new upward cycle. (Cointelegraph)
Bitcoin Selling Pressure Easing? Realized Losses Drop 56% from Peak, but Demand Recovery Remains Weak
According to Odaily, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the current bear market phase for Bitcoin has seen the highest level of realized losses among holders. The 30-day moving average (30DMA) of realized losses peaked at $1.37 billion in February 2026, 19% higher than the $1.15 billion peak during the 2022 cycle. Data shows that since the February peak, Bitcoin realized losses have dropped by 56.5% to approximately $597 million. Meanwhile, the scale of realized profits has only slowly recovered to $257 million. Axel Adler pointed out that loss-driven selling pressure has significantly weakened, but the market has not yet seen sustained demand recovery, with the decline in losses still outpacing the recovery in profits.From a historical cycle comparison, realized losses reached $1.37 billion on February 20, 2026, a new all-time high for this metric. The highest realized loss in the 2022 cycle was $1.15 billion, recorded on June 30, 2022. In terms of realized profits, as of July 23, Bitcoin's realized profit 30DMA stood at $257 million, down 92.7% from the peak of $3.51 billion recorded on December 10, 2024. It is also down 77.7% from the level on October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $124,710. This metric bottomed out at $191 million on June 14, 2026, and has since recovered by 34.7%.Axel Adler stated that profit-driven selling pressure has dropped significantly, and the volume of coins being sold for profit is currently at a low level for this cycle. However, this does not mean that sellers have been completely exhausted, nor does it imply that market demand has recovered. If realized profits consistently rise above the $400 million to $500 million range, it would better confirm a sustained market improvement.Additionally, the Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio has recovered from a low of 0.26 in June to 0.43, but remains below the 1.0 level. The analyst noted that while the absolute scale of realized losses in the current cycle exceeds that of 2022, the relative market pressure is still lower than in 2022. Since Bitcoin's all-time high, realized losses have exceeded realized profits on 190 out of the past 291 days. Axel Adler cautioned that if the profit/loss ratio breaks below 0.26 again, accompanied by a price drop below the cycle low of $58,535 established on June 30, it could signal further escalation of market pressure.
Greeks.live: Bitcoin and Ethereum Options with $1.43 Billion Notional Value Expire and Settle Today
According to options expiry data released by [email protected] (@BTC__options), a total of 19,000 BTC options expired this week, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.89, Max Pain at $64,500, and a notional value of $1.2 billion; 125,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.25, Max Pain at $1,875, and a notional value of $230 million. In terms of market conditions, BTC briefly broke through 66K this week but failed to hold. The 65K to 80K range is a high-volume trading zone from the early year's rally, indicating significant upside pressure. Overall IV has retreated to the 35% level, leaving fewer trading opportunities. Notably, the ETH put option ratio has exceeded 1 for 6 consecutive weeks, the longest duration on record, indicating sustained high bearish sentiment in the market. However, some traders are also taking the opportunity to sell Puts to buy the dip. Cryptocurrencies have experienced an 8-month bear market. From a cyclical perspective, the second half of the year may see a certain rebound.