News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: Prediction market platform Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer, Matthew Modabber, was reportedly found to have paid content creators at least $350,000 through his personal PayPal account between January 2025 and February 2026, to promote Polymarket and its prediction market data.Reports indicate that Modabber transferred over $2.5 million to more than 800 individuals over 14 months. According to a Politico investigation, at least 20 influencers who received payments subsequently posted approximately 490 pieces of content related to Polymarket on social media platform X, with the majority failing to clearly disclose the paid partnership.Creators involved include conservative commentator Alex LoRusso, political commentator Brian Krassenstein, and Fox News contributor Riley Gaines. The related posts often described Polymarket's odds changes as "BREAKING" news or event bellwethers, aiming to reinforce the public perception of the platform's predictive accuracy.A Polymarket spokesperson responded that collaborating with content creators is a standard marketing strategy for the company, intended to provide global users with "the most accurate, transparent, and data-driven market insights." However, the company did not address questions regarding why personal accounts were used for payments or whether the related promotions complied with disclosure requirements.The report notes that following Trump's election victory, interest in prediction markets surged, and Polymarket's trading volume grew rapidly. As the platform seeks to re-enter the U.S. market, it is expanding its brand influence through social media and opinion leaders, while also facing scrutiny over information disclosure, market influence, and regulatory compliance. (Politico)
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket's “GPT 5.6 will be released before June 15” has dropped to 21%, a 24H decline of 45%. In addition, the probability of “GPT 5.6 will be released before June 30” has dropped to 80%, a 24H decline of 13%. It is reported that OpenAI plans to release the next-generation AI model GPT 5.6 in June 2026, which is currently in the internal testing phase.Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
Odaily News Prediction market platform Polymarket believes competitor Kalshi may have engaged in industrial espionage targeting its New York office and employees. Polymarket's marketing head confirmed the company is conducting an internal investigation, stating there are "too many coincidences" and suspecting Kalshi of malicious intent.According to reports, Polymarket has internally compiled a file named "The Imitators," documenting approximately a dozen suspicious incidents. These include Polymarket's original plan to launch a free grocery pop-up event on February 12, while Kalshi launched a similar event approximately nine days earlier. Additionally, Polymarket was scheduled to announce its perpetual contract product plans on April 21, but about an hour before the announcement, tech media outlet The Information reported that Kalshi was also preparing to launch a similar product.Polymarket employees are also concerned that the office of venture capital firm Paradigm, which supports Kalshi, is located directly opposite their workspace, potentially allowing for monitoring of employees' computer screens. It is reported that Polymarket installed window film on some office windows this spring.In response, a Kalshi spokesperson denied all allegations, calling Polymarket's suspicions "pathetic and bordering on delusional." (New York Post)
The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that Polymarket's "o1.exchange will TGE before June 30" event probability has risen to 90%, a 29% increase in 24 hours.This morning, o1.exchange founder Jerry Pan posted on X platform, stating that the o1.exchange whitepaper has been released. According to the whitepaper content, the TGE date is June 17.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
prediction market platform Polymarket has disclosed the completion of its first institutional on-chain block trade. The six-figure USD transaction was executed on the Polygon blockchain by digital asset broker FalconX and AI risk settlement infrastructure startup Anera Labs, targeting contracts related to the Ornn Compute Price Index, which tracks the rental price of NVIDIA H100 GPU chips. Polymarket stated that this is the first institutional on-chain block trade in the prediction market field. Going forward, FalconX will also serve as the exclusive market maker for block trades on the Polymarket platform to support institutional clients' liquidity needs and price discovery. (CNBC)
According to The Block, Strategy disclosed in an SEC filing that it sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31, generating approximately $2.5 million in proceeds to pay dividends on its preferred stock. This marks the company’s first Bitcoin sale since December 2022. The disclosure sparked controversy in a Polymarket prediction market—valued at over $20 million in trading volume—that had asked whether Strategy would sell Bitcoin before May 31. The dispute centers on whether the sale qualifies: “Yes” proponents argue the sale occurred before the deadline; “No” proponents contend the information was not publicly disclosed before the market closed and therefore should not count. The market has now entered its final review phase. Polymarket added that “results confirmed outside the deadline will not be recognized,” leaning toward the “No” side. If the dispute escalates further, UMA token holders will vote to resolve it—but prior reports indicate UMA voting power is highly concentrated, with over 60% of active voters linked to Polymarket accounts, raising concerns about impartiality.
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring indicates a new prediction event on Polymarket: "Will the U.S. House and Senate pass the same resolution by June 30, 2026, aimed at limiting U.S. military action against Iran in recent conflicts?"Since the escalation of U.S. military operations against Iran at the end of February this year, the power struggle between the two parties in Congress over the 1973 War Powers Resolution has experienced multiple failures. Although the Senate advanced a related procedural vote in mid-May, and the House also briefly formed a cross-party majority, the House Republican leadership, on the eve of the recess on May 21, cited "absentee members and insufficient votes" to urgently withdraw and postpone the full floor vote. With lawmakers returning to Washington after the Memorial Day recess in early June, the time window for the two chambers to unify the amendment text and complete final passage is extremely compressed. Coupled with the White House's tough stance, potentially using a veto, the market leans toward the view that the two chambers will not reach a substantial binding resolution before the June 30 deadline.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
According to monitoring by Odaily Seer’s Oracle Channel, the Polymarket probability of "Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June 30" has dropped to 25%, a 25% decrease in a single week. The total trading volume for this event has now approached $12 million.The contract rules for this event are as follows: If the IMF Portwatch reports that the 7-day average number of vessel arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz on any date between the market creation and June 30, 2026, is equal to or greater than 60, the market will be resolved as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be resolved as "No." Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.Previously, US and Iranian forces clashed again near the Strait of Hormuz. However, Trump stated earlier today that negotiations with Iran regarding a temporary peace agreement would "yield good results," and he faces a balancing act between potential criticism if Washington agrees to unfreeze billions of dollars in Iranian funds at Tehran's request. Trump had indicated last Friday that he would make a "final decision," but he postponed it as both sides continue to negotiate details, including Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium and how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz waterway (which may require demining first).The Odaily Seer’s Oracle Channel continues to monitor the prediction market. See changes before they are priced in.
prediction market Polymarket has released its platform update for this week, which includes: launching the World Cup page with feature testing; introducing perpetual contract functionality (featuring 5 traditional financial trading pairs and BTC perpetual contracts); optimizing CLOB performance with plans to release a version next week to address queue congestion issues; open-sourcing the SDK; launching a unified API; and implementing Gamma fixes and improvements (including stricter key set pagination and high-traffic read path indexing, as well as production correctness fixes for users, profiles, comments, and sports summaries).
Polymarket has stated the CLOB API is currently under maintenance, affecting trading functionality. The project team has identified the CLOB issue impacting trades and will restart the CLOB at 21:10 today to deploy the fix. During this period, there may be a brief window where order matching is temporarily unavailable or only limit orders are possible. Other services, including the website, Markets API, Polygon RPC, user authentication, and Sports API, will continue to operate normally.
the Polymarket development team stated, "The trading function is currently experiencing an anomaly. The team has identified the root cause and is deploying a fix. Real-time status updates can be viewed on the official status page."
the prediction market platform Polymarket has revealed the Beta version of its perpetual contracts product is now open for testing to a select group of users, with access to be gradually expanded over the next four weeks.Analysts suggest that this launch indicates Polymarket is moving beyond prediction markets into the crypto derivatives trading space, continuously expanding its platform's use cases and user base. The official announcement has not yet disclosed the specific trading pairs or functional details supported by the perpetual contracts product.
according to community user @Caneleo55, the Polymarket deployer wallet has deployed multiple contracts, and may launch a streak prediction (where all matches must be predicted correctly) before the World Cup.
According to The Block, the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs has received the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) proposed rulemaking notice on prediction markets and is currently reviewing it. The CFTC stated it will provide further details after the interagency review process concludes. Recently, Trump publicly endorsed CFTC Chair Michael Selig’s position that prediction markets should fall under the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction. Over the past year, the CFTC has consistently reinforced its regulatory claims over prediction markets and has filed lawsuits against five states—Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York—seeking to restrict Kalshi and Polymarket. TD Cowen believes Trump’s statement is unlikely to alter the legal dispute surrounding this matter in federal court.
: Prediction market Polymarket is facing increased pressure from regulatory and sanctions compliance. It is reported that the platform is pushing traders to undergo identity verification (KYC) to mitigate potential legal and compliance risks.Although Polymarket's betting platform rules do not permit such activities in certain regions, some users have still been participating in market trading through automated trading bots and other methods, forming gray usage pathways in areas such as Russia. Some developers have even utilized tools like Telegram to organize trading traffic and expand their user base. As the platform scales and regulatory scrutiny intensifies, Polymarket is being forced to seek a balance between the decentralized prediction market model and compliance requirements to address potential sanctions and legal risks. (The Information)
the Spanish government is taking action to block Polymarket and Kalshi, stating that the two prediction market platforms are operating in the country without obtaining gambling licenses, allegedly violating the law. Spain's consumer affairs department stated that it has issued preventive blocking orders targeting the websites of Polymarket and Kalshi. Officials will investigate suspected violations of gambling laws, with the relevant procedures expected to last three to four months.The Spanish Gambling Regulatory Authority stated that when prediction platforms allow users to place bets on uncertain outcomes, they carry gambling risks, and companies seeking to offer such services require specific administrative licenses. Currently, Polymarket and Kalshi have not responded to requests for comment. (WSJ)
crypto asset trading platform Gate has completed a new round of functional upgrades for its prediction market. This upgrade primarily covers modules such as Polymarket monitoring, Live real-time market, and event comment sections, while simultaneously optimizing market dynamics display capabilities to help users more quickly identify trending events and key capital flows. Gate now supports the Polymarket monitoring function, allowing users to directly follow smart money strategies via the "Leaderboard" or monitor specific wallet addresses. The platform currently supports copy trading based on "single position amount," with plans to expand more monitoring methods in the future to enhance strategy replication flexibility and trading efficiency.Meanwhile, the prediction market Live zone has officially launched, aggregating active prediction events and real-time trading dynamics. It supports simultaneous viewing of the latest prices, market trends, and trading changes, helping users instantly capture market hotspots and trading opportunities. Additionally, the platform has introduced an event comment section, allowing users to discuss event trends, outcome judgments, and position strategies, thereby enhancing market sentiment perception and community interaction experience. In the future, Gate will continue to improve the prediction market product ecosystem, driving the deep integration of trading, data, content, and community capabilities.
prediction market platform Kalshi has announced support for the establishment of a new prediction market lobbying organization, Americans for Fair Markets, and has appointed Taylor Budowich, former White House Deputy Chief of Staff under the Trump administration, as a strategic advisor. The organization will confront the sports betting and casino industries, which it alleges are "trying to maintain their monopoly and spread misinformation about prediction markets to policymakers."According to reports, Americans for Fair Markets will push for federal-level regulatory policy for prediction markets and launch paid advocacy campaigns to counter what it calls "false narratives" about the industry. The organization will also join a broader industry lobbying camp, including the Coalition for Prediction Markets, which was founded in December 2025 with support from Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Robinhood.On the same day, the U.S. House of Representatives launched an investigation into Kalshi and its main competitor, Polymarket, focusing on how the platforms handle insider trading issues. As prediction markets face increased scrutiny in the United States and globally, related regulatory controversies continue to escalate.Kalshi stated that the new organization will support the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) regulation of prediction markets and will advocate for KYC requirements, a ban on insider trading, and restrictions on markets related to violence and terrorism under a federal regulatory framework. John Bivona, Head of Government Relations at Kalshi, said: "We will not be outspent or out-organized by established interests trying to protect their monopoly." (Cointelegraph)
A recent exchange report published by CoinDesk shows that Gate continues to maintain a leading global position in both spot and derivatives markets. In April, Gate's spot trading volume reached $39.3 billion, while its derivatives trading volume hit $350 billion. Combining both spot and derivatives, its total trading volume ranked fourth globally. Meanwhile, Gate also secured the fourth spot in the global derivatives exchange ranking, holding a 9.86% market share and maintaining its position as a top-tier trading platform worldwide.The report indicates that despite a general decline in overall derivatives market activity, the open interest on centralized exchanges saw a counter-trend increase of 16.9% in April, reaching $105 billion—a new high since February this year. Gate ranked fourth among global retail trading platforms in terms of open interest, with a 9.45% market share, reflecting its ongoing advantages in liquidity depth, trading activity, and competitiveness within the derivatives market.Beyond trading services, the CoinDesk report also highlighted multiple advancements in Gate’s products and ecosystem. Gate has become the first centralized exchange to integrate Polymarket, allowing users to participate in prediction market trading directly through the Gate App using USDT. Currently, Gate has established a systematic framework focusing on the convergence of AI and Web3, progressively forming an AI ecosystem comprising Gate.AI, Gate for AI Agent, GateRouter, and GateClaw. This positions Gate to accelerate its evolution into a key gateway for next-generation AI and on-chain interactions.
Polymarket staff member Shantikiran Chanal posted on platform X, stating that they have taken note of the security reports related to reward distribution, and that user funds and market settlements remain safe. The investigation indicates that a private key leak occurred in a wallet used for internal operations, and the issue is not related to contracts or core infrastructure. Further updates will be provided.Previous report: ZachXBT stated that the Polymarket UMA CTF Adapter contract allegedly came under attack on Polygon, with over $520,000 having been drained.