News linked to both this project and an event.
Morgan Stanley maintains a "Market Perform" rating and a $210 price target, noting that the funding and returns framework has become clearer. The key going forward will be timely capacity delivery and sustained profit margins.
White Hair Stock Oracle Serenity posted on X platform: "The divergence between fundamental demand and valuations has now reached an extreme level. On one hand, procurement from Super Micro Computer (SMCI) to SpaceX (SPCX) is accelerating; on the other hand, stock prices from Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) to data center hosting providers are collapsing. I believe that after the earnings season, October 2026 will be seen as another (buy-the-dip) opportunity similar to the 'DeepSeek shock' or the 'April tariff panic.'
Odaily reports: White Hair Stock Oracle Serenity stated that the memory chip industry is gaining unprecedented long-term demand visibility, with major cloud service providers such as Google even seeking to sign long-term supply agreements extending to 2035. However, the market remains affected by concerns over the sustainability of AI infrastructure investment and financing risks.Serenity also cited Dell CEO Michael Dell's view that the memory chip supply shortage may last about 4 years, as the construction cycle for new wafer fabs is lengthy, and the relevant capacity is expected to be released only between 2029 and 2030. Dell expects that the supply-demand imbalance in memory chips may further deteriorate in 2027.
Odaily reports: “White-Haired Stock Oracle” Serenity posted that Musk’s recent abrupt interactions with multiple finance-sector KOLs have amplified market concerns about CoreWeave (CRWV) financing risks and speculative behavior among AI investors. Although Musk is highly visionary, from the outside, continuously magnifying the problems facing competitors and accusing Samsung and SK Hynix of overpricing may further increase the financing difficulty of those parties. These remarks may benefit Tesla and SpaceX in the long run, but the market may also overlook the specific context of some of these issues as a result.Serenity added that it had previously raised concerns multiple times about CoreWeave’s debt interest burden and the risk of rising rates, and criticized the market for lacking detailed analysis of changes in high-end memory chip supply and Broadcom CEO’s remarks about OpenAI’s annualized recurring revenue (ARR). It also suggested that when Musk criticizes competitors, he should also consider the risks he himself faces.
White-Haired Stock Oracle Serenity posted on X stating that although AI-related stocks have recently been affected by the macroeconomic environment, rate hike expectations, and concerns over capex sustainability, the fundamentals of key supply chain segments such as memory chips and optical communications remain strong, and the market's pricing of different companies is clearly diverging.He noted that demand visibility for memory manufacturers such as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix has extended to 2030-2031, and long-term procurement agreements and price floor mechanisms are expected to support future profitability. On the optical communications side, Lumentum's capacity is essentially sold out through 2029, and with the large-scale adoption of CPO/NPO technology, a supercycle in optical communications may arrive in 2027-2028, with capacity-expanding companies such as AAOI and SIVE worth watching.As for capital-intensive capex companies such as IREN, he stated that the market does not seem to favor companies that require continuous heavy investment while also constantly raising funds. In any case, the market currently appears to have entered a more risk-averse environment, with capital shifting toward large-cap companies in search of safety, such as CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Palantir (PLTR).In addition, the White-Haired Stock Oracle believes that even if AI capex slows, it does not mean that all supply chain companies will come under pressure simultaneously. The current market tends to trade AI-related stocks as a whole, which may lead to some key supply chain companies being undervalued. Rather than simply chasing the AI concept, companies with higher demand visibility, imminent profitability inflection points, and expected declines in forward valuations may deliver better performance over the medium term.
According to Chaoxiang Research, a Morgan Stanley research report dated October 7, 2026, indicates that Oracle's 10-year USD bond yield has reached 7.5%, while its 5-year credit default swap (CDS) has risen from 57 basis points to 260 basis points. The Wall Street Journal reported that Oracle may be purchasing chips through a third-party entity and leasing them back, though the scale remains undisclosed and the loan-to-cost ratio exceeds 50%. Morgan Stanley considers this structure highly consistent with its long-term hypothesized framework for a chip-leasing SPV, under which the credit exposure is booked as debt on the balance sheet and incorporated into the parent company's adjusted leverage assessment. Morgan Stanley judges that the bond market's reaction is primarily driven by investors' capacity to absorb the broader chip financing wave, with Oracle's individual transaction playing a secondary role. From a trading perspective, the firm recommends buying Oracle's 5-year CDS and selling the 2035 and 2055 maturing bonds, positioning for a deterioration in Oracle's credit profile.
Goldman Sachs estimates AI infrastructure spending by Amazon, Google parent company Alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle, and Meta will reach $800 billion this year. Goldman Sachs notes that hyperscale cloud providers need approximately $300 billion in annual AI revenue to break even. However, rising financing demands and infrastructure constraints may weigh on the pace of future spending growth.
Odaily News: Positron, an AI chip startup focused on designing hardware that helps AI models run faster, said it has raised $875 million at a $5 billion valuation, with the company's value surging significantly over the past six months. The round was co-led by venture capital firms NEA, Atreides Management, Valor Equity Partners, Andra Capital, analyst Dylan Patel's SemiAnalysis Capital, and Netscape co-founder Jim Clark.Positron raised $230 million in its most recent funding round in February of this year at a $1 billion valuation. Positron said it has delivered approximately 50 Atlas server racks of its previous generation to Oracle, with other customers including financial firm Jump Trading and AI company Parasail. Positron is trying to gain an edge in the crowded chip industry by bringing its chips to market as quickly as possible. (The Wall Street Journal)
According to Chaoxiang Research, a Morgan Stanley report dated August 24 indicates that the total disclosed off-balance-sheet commitments from hyperscalers, NVIDIA, and Broadcom have surpassed $3.1 trillion. Lease commitments total $1.1 trillion and procurement commitments $1.7 trillion, while the combined on-balance-sheet debt and lease liabilities of hyperscalers reach $770 billion. Amazon and Google's free cash flow turned negative in Q2 2026, with Meta expected to follow suit next quarter. Financing instruments are restructuring the AI compute capital structure across six dimensions: off-balance-sheet lease and procurement commitments form the first financing layer; the share of debt issuance rises from 2% in 2025 to 19% in 2026; Google frees up $110 billion by reducing share buybacks and issuing equity; Oracle records $4.6 billion in customer advance payments in Q2; and Broadcom and NVIDIA launch chip-leasing SPVs to support unrated AI labs. Morgan Stanley notes that when the financing structure itself becomes a core variable in the AI supply chain, tracking changes in off-balance-sheet commitments and accounting judgments is nearing the importance of tracking chip shipments themselves.
The Situational Awareness fund, managed by "AI Stock God" Leopold Aschenbrenner, accumulated a gain of 439% before June 2026. However, it suffered severe setbacks during the AI sector sell-off in July. The fund is currently communicating with existing investors and lenders to seek new capital and is offering some LPs the opportunity to purchase assets from its portfolio.Sources say this capital discussion appears more like an ad-hoc response than an organized new fundraising round. The fund had previously used leverage through prime brokers at several major investment banks to amplify its AI trading exposure, turning market drawdowns further into funding pressure.In a letter to investors on July 24, Aschenbrenner acknowledged that the fund failed to avoid this market shock, noting that Asian markets were particularly affected. However, he believes this sell-off could present the best buying opportunity since early 2025. He plans to open a window for new capital on August 1st and views Anthropic's potential IPO as a catalyst for the second half of the year.According to disclosures, some holdings saw significant declines in July. Oracle and AMD fell approximately 20% for the month, while Nebius, Saronic AI, Bloom Energy, Sandisk, and others saw even larger drops. The Nasdaq 100 index fell about 10% in July, and South Korea's Kospi index dropped by roughly one-third.Currently, lacking specific data on the fund's exact drawdown magnitude, it is difficult to determine whether this fundraising is a passive capital injection driven by leverage pressure or an active move to increase positions for an opportunity. However, market trends suggest it is closer to the former. If forced selling occurs, the deleveraging process could also create discount opportunities in assets whose fundamentals haven't materially changed.
AI data center Crusoe Energy Systems is in talks for a new round of financing worth approximately $3 billion. Upon completion of this round, the company's valuation is expected to roughly triple from the previous round, reaching the $30 billion range.Founded in 2018, Crusoe initially started with crypto-related businesses before transitioning into an AI infrastructure and data center service provider. It is currently categorized as one of the "neocloud" firms, a new type of cloud computing company focused on providing computational power support for generative AI. The company has signed compute supply contracts with tech giants including Meta and Oracle. As demand for AI infrastructure construction surges, the scale of its compute business continues to expand.According to previously public information, Crusoe completed a funding round of approximately $1.38 billion last year, with a valuation exceeding $10 billion. If this new round is successfully completed, it would become another large-scale capital move in the AI infrastructure sector.Market sources estimate that the final valuation for this round could be around the $30 billion level, but the deal is still in progress and has not yet been finalized. (Reuters)