Morgan Stanley: $3.1 Trillion in Off-Balance-Sheet AI Compute Commitments Emerge, Financing Structure Becomes a New Variable in the Supply Chain

According to Chaoxiang Research, a Morgan Stanley report dated August 24 indicates that the total disclosed off-balance-sheet commitments from hyperscalers, NVIDIA, and Broadcom have surpassed $3.1 trillion. Lease commitments total $1.1 trillion and procurement commitments $1.7 trillion, while the combined on-balance-sheet debt and lease liabilities of hyperscalers reach $770 billion. Amazon and Google's free cash flow turned negative in Q2 2026, with Meta expected to follow suit next quarter. Financing instruments are restructuring the AI compute capital structure across six dimensions: off-balance-sheet lease and procurement commitments form the first financing layer; the share of debt issuance rises from 2% in 2025 to 19% in 2026; Google frees up $110 billion by reducing share buybacks and issuing equity; Oracle records $4.6 billion in customer advance payments in Q2; and Broadcom and NVIDIA launch chip-leasing SPVs to support unrated AI labs. Morgan Stanley notes that when the financing structure itself becomes a core variable in the AI supply chain, tracking changes in off-balance-sheet commitments and accounting judgments is nearing the importance of tracking chip shipments themselves.