News linked to both this project and an event.
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated in Wednesday's report that recent actions by U.S. regulators are partially offsetting the adverse impact of the Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act, but until a crypto market structure bill is enacted, the political and legal risk premium will persist. Analysts note that regulator-driven measures could encourage institutional participation in the short term, but only legislation can ensure a more durable regulatory framework. If the Democratic Party wins the White House, existing regulatory measures could be overturned within as little as two years. The bill is unlikely to pass this year and may instead be put back on the agenda in 2027.
Odaily reports: JPMorgan Asset Management has for the first time incorporated Bitcoin into its long-term capital market assumptions, projecting an annualized return of approximately 10% for Bitcoin over the next decade, with the potential to outperform stocks, bonds, and gold. However, the forecast also assumes an annualized volatility of 55% for Bitcoin, more than three times that of U.S. large-cap stocks.JPMorgan believes that gradually improving regulatory frameworks and continued enhancements in market liquidity and price discovery mechanisms could further drive Bitcoin's acceptance in traditional financial markets. Looking ahead to the next decade, technological innovation in areas such as artificial intelligence, robotics, healthcare, and space, along with approximately $15 trillion in global capital expenditure growth, are also expected to drive economic growth and asset returns.Analysts noted that the correlation between Bitcoin and other assets is unstable, making it currently unsuitable as a diversification asset in balanced portfolios. As a result, the firm has not yet included it in its main portfolio models. If Bitcoin's volatility continues to decline and its correlation with other assets stabilizes in the future, its value for portfolio allocation could increase. (Bloomberg)
Odaily reports: Crypto analyst Darkfost published a post on X outlining the evolution of JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's attitude toward Bitcoin in recent years.In 2017, Dimon called Bitcoin a "fraud"; in 2018, he expressed regret over those remarks and acknowledged the value of blockchain technology; from 2019 to 2020, he said Bitcoin "doesn't appeal to him"; in 2021, he called it "worthless"; in 2023, he said that if he had the power, he would ban Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies; and in 2024, he likened Bitcoin to "pet rocks" and a Ponzi scheme.In 2025, Dimon still criticized Bitcoin for lacking value and being used for money laundering, but later stated that everyone has the right to buy Bitcoin. Now, JPMorgan in its 2027 outlook has listed Bitcoin as the asset with the best long-term return performance.Previously reported, JPMorgan Asset Management released its "2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" report on October 19, including Bitcoin in its long-term return projections for the first time and forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 10% over the next 10 to 15 years, higher than the 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 5.5% for gold, and 8.2% for U.S. real estate investment trusts (REITs).
JPMorgan notes that retail investors have lost confidence in tech ETFs, but their buying of individual semiconductor stocks runs counter to institutional positioning, with semiconductor crowding at the 96.1th percentile. Over the next seven days of earnings season, 62 S&P 500 companies will report results, accounting for 14% of market capitalization, concentrated in the financial and industrial sectors.
According to fund flow research, JPMorgan’s October 7, 2026 research report indicates that retail net inflows reached $5.7 billion in a single week, below the 12-month average of $6.7 billion. The percentile rank for tech sector ETF inflows rose from 4% four weeks ago to 73%. The top five purchased stocks were NVIDIA ($834 million), Google ($265 million), SNDK ($150 million), MU ($135 million), and STX ($129 million). Consensus earnings growth expectations for the Q3 earnings season stand at 31%, or 27% excluding energy. JPMorgan notes that retail investors are net buying across the entire technology sector, with semiconductors, hardware, and software all gaining favor; software has also returned to focus. Whether this rotation can continue will depend on validation during the Q3 earnings season. Large banks, having underperformed recently, present pre-earnings rebound opportunities amid improving net interest income expectations. On the Brazil front, after EWZ surged 13% on Monday, retail investors took profits. JPMorgan strategists project the index could appreciate another 20% in the short term.
According to Chaohang Research, JPMorgan’s September 24, 2026 research report indicates that U.S. corporate financing surplus in Q2 2026 approached 2% of GDP, marking the highest level for non-crisis periods since data tracking began in 1952. Non-financial corporate surplus stood at approximately 1.5%, the highest for non-crisis periods since 1958. Global equity buybacks are projected to reach $1.7 trillion in 2026, with U.S. corporations accounting for $1.3 trillion. Bitcoin’s production cost is approximately $85,000; after trading below this threshold for 280 consecutive days, the price has finally broken through. Network hash rate and mining difficulty have decreased by roughly 19% and 15%, respectively, from their peaks last October. JPMorgan notes that cash flow growth outpaces capital expenditures, indicating that the corporate sector as a whole does not require additional financing. This financing surplus underpins share repurchases, particularly among firms outside the technology sector. AI-driven capital expenditures are crowding out other spending, keeping overall capex growth moderate, and the exuberance of the late 1990s has yet to return. Bitcoin miners are structurally shifting toward AI operations, lowering forced selling risks, though hash rate expansion has decelerated. Bond futures momentum indicators have moved into more extreme bearish zones, with standard deviation scores for the 10-year U.S. Treasury and German Bunds reverting to -1.7 and -1.5, respectively.
According to Tide Research, JPMorgan's research report dated September 8, 2026 noted that on September 4, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs recorded a net outflow of $175 million, Ethereum ETPs saw a net inflow of $9 million, and Solana ETPs posted a net outflow of $5 million. For the week, the three major categories combined for a net outflow of $1.126 billion, showing a slight slowdown compared to the previous two weeks. Capital inflows were highly concentrated, with BlackRock's IBIT recording a single-day inflow of $118 million and Fidelity's FBTC seeing an inflow of $57 million, while all other products registered zero inflow. Significant internal hedging was observed within Ethereum ETPs, as BlackRock's ETHA posted an inflow of $58 million against a $48 million outflow for Fidelity's FETH. The total AUM for Bitcoin ETPs stands at $101.25 billion.
Odaily News According to Gate Ventures' latest weekly report, global risk assets have shown a clear recovery over the past week, with major US stock indices collectively hitting new all-time highs. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.58%, 5.19%, and 2.96%, respectively. The crypto market also rebounded in tandem, with BTC up 2.1% on the week and ETH up 1.4%, bringing the total cryptocurrency market cap up 1.4%. On the capital flows front, BTC spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $853 million for the week, while ETH spot ETFs saw net inflows of $244.9 million, indicating further improvement in institutional demand.In terms of industry developments, the integration of traditional finance and blockchain continues to advance. BlackRock has appointed JPMorgan to push forward the tokenization of a European money market fund, exploring 24/7 transfer of blockchain-based fund shares. Grayscale has filed an S-1 registration statement for the first US Worldcoin ETF, further deepening the connection between digital assets and traditional financial markets. Stablecoin infrastructure also remained active, with Yellow Card completing a $40 million strategic funding round and planning to expand its stablecoin account and payment infrastructure into Latin America and the Asia-Pacific markets.On the investment and financing front, eight deals were completed last week, with total disclosed funding reaching $90.64 million, focused on the infrastructure track. Overall, market risk appetite has seen some recovery, with institutional-grade blockchain infrastructure, stablecoins, and asset tokenization remaining key areas of continued industry focus.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
During the 11th year of Ethereum, the Ethereum Foundation underwent organizational restructuring, including leadership departures, layoffs, the introduction of a new CROPS mandate, and the spin-off of EthLabs, Ethereum Systems, and Ethereum Institutional as independent entities. The Ethereum Foundation seeks to further decentralize its role within the ecosystem. Concurrently, Ethereum continued to advance its technology and institutional adoption, launching the Fusaka upgrade and attracting participation from Wall Street institutions such as BlackRock and JPMorgan; cumulative inflows into US spot Ethereum ETFs have exceeded $11.23 billion.
According to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan's equity strategy report on July 20 noted that AI-related stocks have suffered heavy selling over the past few weeks. The Korean stock market has fallen 25% from its highs, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has dropped 20%, and individual stocks such as Samsung and Micron have declined between 20% and 50%. The report believes the core drivers of this decline are technical factors and position clearing, with no deterioration in fundamentals. The gap between semiconductor relative prices and relative earnings trends continues to widen, but the tight supply-demand balance for DRAM and NAND will persist until 2028. DRAM spot prices remain high, and Micron has also raised its earnings guidance, judging that supply-demand tightness will last at least until 2027. The RSI of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has approached the oversold zone, and momentum gains accumulated year-to-date have been largely erased. JPMorgan judges that once oversold signals are confirmed, a rebound window will open, suggesting investors build semiconductor positions in tranches during the summer. The proportion of Q2 earnings reports beating expectations reached 97%, and S&P 500 companies beating expectations outperformed the market by an average of 1.7 percentage points on the day of their earnings releases. In terms of allocation, JPMorgan has increased equity allocation from 60% to 65%, and the Eurozone allocation from 8.7% to 11%. At the industry level, it overweights semiconductors, mining, capital goods, automobiles, insurance, and banks, and underweights software, commercial services, media, and other "AI Cannibalization Group" sectors. Regarding geopolitical conflicts, the report believes that the "buy the dip" strategy since the end of March remains effective.
According to TechFlow Research, JPMorgan's quantitative report on July 16 noted that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has cumulatively declined by approximately 19% since its high on June 22, but quantitative models indicate that the unwinding of crowding in AI-related sectors is not yet complete. The "AI Bubble Interest Score" tracked by the model remains in the historical highest range; at this level, the probability of SOX falling another 8% or more in the short term exceeds 50%. JPMorgan provided a quantifiable entry signal: only when the score falls out of the historical highest range is it truly time to consider scaling in. Before this, every rebound may be pressed back by panic narratives. For US stock investors, now is not the time to add positions; it is recommended to wait for the window in mid-August, or use put options and defensive sectors to hedge. For A-share investors, the volatility of the domestic AI sector is higher; the same logic can be applied, waiting for clearer right-side signals, with the August earnings period being the key window.
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts pointed out in the latest report that although recent spot Bitcoin ETF fund inflows have fluctuated significantly, Strategy's increase of USD reserves from $2.55 billion to $3 billion (covering approximately 20 months of preferred stock dividends), as well as Bitcoin futures (including CME futures and perpetual contracts) recording positive fund inflows this week, are both "positive signals" for Bitcoin's prospects. The analysts also noted that leveraged ETF inflows linked to Strategy have remained stable for seven consecutive weeks, mainly driven by retail investors, effectively supporting its stock price. Meanwhile, Strategy President and CEO Phong Le stated that the company is "very confident" in its balance sheet, will only consider debt risk if Bitcoin prices fall to the $8,000 to $10,000 range, and plans to continue issuing additional shares after the STRC preferred stock returns to a $100 par value, with the proceeds potentially used to purchase more Bitcoin.
JPMorgan analysts say Strategy’s recent increase in USD cash reserves, along with positive fund flows in the Bitcoin futures market, are “encouraging signs” for Bitcoin’s outlook, despite recent volatility in spot Bitcoin ETF flows.The report notes that flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have been unstable in recent weeks, turning negative this week after inflows last week. In contrast, leveraged ETFs linked to Strategy have seen relatively stable and positive flows over the past seven weeks. Analysts attribute this primarily to retail investor buying, which may have supported Strategy’s stock price and prevented its common stock from falling below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings.Meanwhile, Strategy recently increased its USD cash reserves from $2.55 billion to $3 billion, enough to cover approximately 20 months of preferred stock dividend payments. JPMorgan had previously suggested that Strategy should raise its cash reserves to cover two to three years of dividends, in order to alleviate market concerns about the company potentially being forced to sell Bitcoin to pay dividends in the future.Analysts say it is still difficult to determine whether Strategy's move to bolster its cash reserves has directly improved Bitcoin investor sentiment. However, the fact that Bitcoin futures still recorded positive fund flows this week, against a backdrop of spot BTC ETF outflows, is also seen as an encouraging signal for the market outlook.
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts pointed out in their latest report that although Strategy's Bitcoin selling plan has triggered market attention, it is not the core risk facing Bitcoin. The real structural threat lies in the fact that blockchain applications such as tokenization, payments, and settlements are increasingly occurring on permissioned chains (Permissioned Blockchain), rather than on public chains such as Ethereum. If this trend continues, the public chain ecosystem will face issues such as declining liquidity and weakened capital inflows, ultimately dragging down Bitcoin valuations. The analysts also warned that the proliferation of bank-built blockchain infrastructure and tokenized deposits could undermine the position of stablecoins in institutional payments; regulated alternatives such as SWIFT's blockchain plan, the digital euro, and the digital yuan also constitute competitive pressure. However, the analysts also pointed out that if hybrid public-private chain models emerge, stablecoin regulation becomes clearer, or Bitcoin continues to be held as "digital gold", the aforementioned risks may be mitigated.
as the 25-day quiet period following SpaceX's (SPCX) June IPO comes to an end, Wall Street analysts have begun releasing formal research reports. Multiple major brokerages have issued favorable ratings, indicating institutional investors remain optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential.As IPO underwriters, both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have assigned buy-equivalent ratings to SpaceX. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan set a price target of $205, while Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas gave a target of $300. Additionally, institutions such as Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, and UBS have also initiated coverage with buy or equivalent ratings. Among them, Raymond James Financial provided the most optimistic forecast; analyst Brian Gesuale initiated coverage of SpaceX with a "Strong Buy" rating and a price target as high as $800, believing SpaceX will become "one of the most representative industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century."Analysis suggests that market optimism towards SpaceX is primarily based on its布局 (layout/foundation) in areas such as rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and government contracts. At the same time, the company's communications business can provide a sustainable source of revenue and support future expansion of launch scale.As of March 31, 2026, SpaceX holds 18,712 Bitcoins. Wall Street believes that the concentrated coverage following the end of the IPO quiet period provides a window for institutional investors to conduct their first systematic assessment of SpaceX's valuation. The fact that nearly all major institutions simultaneously issued positive ratings is relatively rare for large-scale IPOs. (CoinDesk)
According to JPMorgan analysts, Michael Saylor’s Strategy recently officially launched a Bitcoin sale policy, transforming the company from a pure BTC buyer into a potential seller, introducing an “avoidable two-way risk” to the crypto market.Strategy’s Bitcoin sale policy, named the BTC Monetization Program, allows the company to sell Bitcoin to raise up to $1.25 billion in cash reserves. These funds will be used to pay preferred stock dividends and interest expenses, or to repurchase preferred and common shares, in order to optimize its capital structure.JPMorgan believes that Strategy’s potential future sale of BTC will increase market uncertainty and volatility regarding the price of Bitcoin. Analysts stated that if the company had instead supplemented its future dividend payment reserves by issuing equity, this risk could have been avoided.Strategy currently has a minimum cash reserve target covering 12 months of preferred stock dividends and interest expenses, with its current cash reserves of $2.55 billion sufficient to cover approximately 17 months of dividends. JPMorgan believes the company should increase its cash reserves to cover 24 to 36 months of related obligations. Even if this results in the common stock trading at a discount to net asset value, it would provide greater assurance to investors that the company will not be forced to sell Bitcoin in the short term.
Nasdaq confirmed that SpaceX will be officially added to the Nasdaq-100 Index on July 7. JPMorgan estimates this move could generate approximately $4.3 billion in passive inflows for the company, with related index funds passively increasing their holdings of its stock.
US stock futures fell across the board on Friday, with the tech sector leading the decline, as market concerns over rising AI infrastructure costs and a slowdown in fundraising pace intensified. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.2%, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.5%, and Dow Jones futures lost 67 points (-0.1%). Chip stocks broadly weakened following reports that OpenAI is considering postponing its IPO until next year, citing increased volatility in AI-related stocks, unstable market sentiment, and even the impact of SpaceX’s weak post-IPO performance.JPMorgan's trading desk noted that this news has reinforced market concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure investments and could affect the pace of future capital market fundraising. Vital Knowledge analyst Adam Crisafulli also stated that the IPO delay could slow down the overall expansion rate of AI infrastructure spending.In the chip sector, Philadelphia Semiconductor-related stocks came under pressure, with ON Semiconductor falling over 13% after acquiring Synaptics. Micron Technology and SanDisk both declined by more than 5%. The XLK ETF tracking the tech sector fell 1.6%, extending the previous session's losses. (CNBC)