JPMorgan: AI Sector Crowding Remains at High Levels, Models Signal It's Not Yet Time to Bottom-Fish

According to TechFlow Research, JPMorgan's quantitative report on July 16 noted that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has cumulatively declined by approximately 19% since its high on June 22, but quantitative models indicate that the unwinding of crowding in AI-related sectors is not yet complete. The "AI Bubble Interest Score" tracked by the model remains in the historical highest range; at this level, the probability of SOX falling another 8% or more in the short term exceeds 50%. JPMorgan provided a quantifiable entry signal: only when the score falls out of the historical highest range is it truly time to consider scaling in. Before this, every rebound may be pressed back by panic narratives. For US stock investors, now is not the time to add positions; it is recommended to wait for the window in mid-August, or use put options and defensive sectors to hedge. For A-share investors, the volatility of the domestic AI sector is higher; the same logic can be applied, waiting for clearer right-side signals, with the August earnings period being the key window.