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Bitcoin briefly approached the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $83,300 on Wednesday but failed to achieve a decisive breakout, subsequently falling back below $81,000. Meanwhile, the broader crypto market weakened, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Index falling over 2% in the past 24 hours, making it the worst-performing major sector. The 200-day moving average is widely regarded by the market as a key indicator for measuring long-term trends. If BTC can hold above this level, it would further reinforce the market narrative that the bear market, which saw prices fall below $63,000 in February, has ended and a new bull market has begun.However, a similar situation occurred historically in March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly broke above and tested the 200-day moving average before ultimately falling to around $20,000 by June of that year. As a result, some analysts are warning of the risk of a "fakeout."Analytics firm Marex stated that Bitcoin's ability to continue its upward trajectory depends on three factors: sustained spot buying pressure, a continued tightening of exchange supply, and a derivatives market that remains healthy without overheating. If all three factors align positively, Bitcoin could quickly open up the path towards the $85,000 range. Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, noted that this pullback appears more like a brief consolidation within an uptrend rather than an end to the trend. However, he also cautioned that the daily RSI had previously entered overbought territory, and similar instances in the past were accompanied by significant corrections.Additionally, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen to 4.32% from its early-month high of 4.46%, which is viewed as a potential positive factor for risk assets. (CoinDesk)
According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs totaled $45.85 million. BlackRock’s $IBIT led with $134 million in inflows, while most other products performed poorly: Fidelity’s $FBTC saw outflows of $38.95 million, Bitwise’s $BITB recorded $25.18 million in outflows, Grayscale’s $GBTC experienced $17.1 million in outflows, and Franklin Templeton’s $EZBC had $7.05 million in outflows. Meanwhile, products from Morgan Stanley, Ark Invest, Invesco, and VanEck all registered zero net flows for the day.
Decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket has officially launched its Deposit Wallets feature. Newly registered users will automatically receive a dedicated deposit address. As this feature rolls out fully, the existing “ghost fills” issue is expected to gradually diminish. Meanwhile, the team continues to monitor system performance to ensure stable operation.
Garrett Jin, the agent of “1011 Insider Whale,” authored an analysis stating that Trump’s so-called “Project Freedom” is not a signal of risk mitigation but rather a “fuse” for a new wave of uncertainty. Although the market interprets it as a de-escalation and has driven risk assets higher, its underlying structure more closely resembles a “limited engagement + potential response” strategic framework. This initiative primarily maintains maritime security through coordination of shipping lanes, insurance support, and military readiness—rather than direct naval escort—potentially amplifying market reactions once triggered by specific events. Meanwhile, multiple factors—including energy inventory pressures, heightened regional military deployments, shifts in policy and legal environments, and tightening diplomatic channels—are converging. Individually, these variables do not constitute definitive signals; however, their concentration within the current time window may elevate market volatility risk. Overall, investors are advised to maintain caution and adopt hedging strategies, closely monitoring how macroeconomic and geopolitical variables could potentially disrupt market sentiment.
OdailyOdaily reported that Bitcoin has broken through the $80,000 mark, rising approximately 2.6% in 24 hours to $80,150, driving the overall crypto market higher. ETH rose 3.6%, and XRP rose 2%. Nick Ruck, Director of LVRG Research, stated that this breakthrough shattered the key resistance zone that had been suppressing prices over the weekend, with short-term momentum clearly turning stronger. Meanwhile, Dominick John, an analyst at Zeus Research, noted that the upward price movement was accompanied by a technical short squeeze.On the capital front, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for the fifth consecutive week, attracting approximately $154 million last week, indicating continuously strengthening institutional allocation demand. Analysts believe that if the capital inflow trend continues and is compounded by macroeconomic uncertainties, Bitcoin may maintain strong volatility in the short term. The market will closely monitor the impact of subsequent economic data and shifts in risk sentiment on the price trend. (The Block)
According to CoinDesk, Amy Oldenburg, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Morgan Stanley, stated at the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas that U.S. banks may hold bitcoin on their balance sheets in the future—but the timeline remains uncertain due to guidance from the Federal Reserve, the Basel Accords, and global regulatory requirements. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s recently launched MSBT—the first bank-issued bitcoin ETP—drew over $100 million in inflows within its first six days of listing, all sourced exclusively from self-directed investment channels and not yet made available to financial advisors. Oldenburg noted that slow adoption by the advisor channel stems primarily from an education gap; the bank has initiated internal training programs to address this and is applying for a digital trust charter from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to support direct custody of crypto assets and spot crypto trading services.
Bitcoin remained near $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, market attention quickly shifted to internal policy divergence and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more focused on policy uncertainty stemming from internal "divisions" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself. This is particularly true against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential expectation of Kevin Warsh succeeding him, creating a lack of clear policy transition.Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support lying between $65,000 and $70,000. While selling pressure has eased, demand remains insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout.On the macro front, the Fed has shown rare, severe internal disagreements, interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty over the inflation path. Analysts from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares point out that the expectation of "higher rates for longer" is suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.Regarding capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million over the same period. Although individual products still saw inflows, the overall trend indicates cooling institutional demand.Meanwhile, CME open interest and ETF assets under management have stabilized but have yet to show strong signals of capital return. In the derivatives market, short positions in perpetual contracts have reached an all-time high, suggesting a potential squeeze if sentiment improves. However, the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure.Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between an improving support structure and weak demand. Sustained ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppress its ability to break through the key resistance range. (The Block)
Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Officer of 21Shares, stated that spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital inflows, reinforcing Bitcoin's core position in institutional asset allocation, even as the price remains volatile below the $80,000 mark. Adrian Fritz pointed out that since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed nearly $2 billion in funds, sourced from retail investors, institutions, and hedge funds engaging in arbitrage and options strategies. He believes that as traditional asset management institutions like Morgan Stanley accelerate their deployment, crypto assets are being more broadly incorporated into multi-asset portfolio allocations. Bitcoin's current daily trading volume has exceeded $50 billion, with liquidity levels approaching those of large-cap tech stocks like Nvidia. The ETF mechanism simultaneously provides primary and secondary market liquidity, gradually granting it "institutional-grade asset" attributes.Although the market remains under pressure from macroeconomic conditions and interest rate environments, Adrian Fritz believes that ETF inflows have shifted from being speculation-driven to structural demand. He predicts that driven by factors such as improving geopolitical conditions, sustained capital inflows, and short covering, Bitcoin could challenge the $100,000 threshold this year. Meanwhile, differentiation among altcoins is intensifying, with the market shifting towards an asset selection logic that places greater emphasis on fundamentals and cash flow. (CoinDesk)
Odaily Bitcoin remained consolidating above $77,000 on Wednesday, with markets cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. According to market data, Bitcoin fluctuated within the range of approximately $75,689 to $77,837 during the session, and is currently trading around $77,100.This FOMC meeting is seen as a pivotal event. Markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged, but the real focus is on whether Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will signal a "higher-for-longer" hawkish stance. Additionally, this meeting may be his last as Fed Chair, with markets simultaneously pricing in uncertainty regarding policy direction and potential power transitions.On the capital front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a reversal after nine consecutive days of net inflows. SoSoValue data shows that on April 28, ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $89.68 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day outflow of about $112 million. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs also logged net outflows of $21.8 million.On-chain data also signals caution. CryptoQuant noted that on April 27, exchange net inflows reached 9,905 BTC, the largest single-day inflow in nearly 30 days. Exchange reserves have also rebounded recently. If these inflows are not quickly absorbed, prices could retest the support range of $74,000–$75,000.On the macroeconomic front, fluctuations in crude oil prices and shifts in the Middle East energy landscape continue to influence inflation expectations. Some analysts believe this could limit the Fed's room for future easing. Meanwhile, market liquidity continues to weaken, with institutional trading volumes and perpetual contract activity both at low levels. This means any policy surprise could amplify price volatility.Overall, Bitcoin remains in a "low liquidity + high event risk" structure and may continue to oscillate within the $72,000 to $80,000 range in the short term, awaiting further clarity on the Fed's policy path. (The Block)
According to QCP Capital’s market report, as the geopolitical risk premium gradually subsided last week, market sentiment turned cautious, and investors’ attention has refocused on policy direction, the interest-rate path, and the economic growth outlook. Equities have been trading near recent highs but lack momentum for an upside breakout. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision is due today. A pause in rate hikes is now the baseline market expectation; however, with no new CPI or employment data released since the prior meeting, markets are highly sensitive to Chair Powell’s commentary—any hawkish signal could swiftly reprice front-end rates and tighten financial conditions. Meanwhile, growing attention is turning to potential leadership changes at the Fed. Kevin Warsh has gained increasing traction in market forecasts. His hawkish stance on inflation and skepticism toward quantitative easing stand in marked contrast to current policy approaches. Should he assume leadership, liquidity-driven assets—including crypto—could face pressure, given crypto markets’ particular sensitivity to rising real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Regarding Bitcoin: after a strong performance in April—supported by ETF inflows and sustained institutional accumulation—the price has entered a range-bound phase. Funding rates remain subdued, volatility continues to narrow, and the broader market is in a wait-and-see mode. QCP believes Bitcoin’s next directional move will hinge more on Fed signals and macroeconomic data than on crypto-native flows. Additionally, the upcoming tech earnings season, alongside releases of the PCE and GDP price indices, will further test the validity of the “soft landing” narrative.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket probability of "Trump announcing the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade before May 31" has risen to 63%, up 7% in 24 hours.U.S. President Trump posted on social media: Iran has just informed us that they are in a "state of collapse." They want us to "open the Strait of Hormuz" as soon as possible so they can resolve their leadership issues (and I believe they can!).Meanwhile, the Deputy Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps Navy stated that Iran has achieved absolute control over the Strait of Hormuz and requires passing vessels to pay transit fees. He emphasized that the territorial sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz is inviolable, and foreign vessels passing through this waterway must comply with rules set by Iran, including using the Persian language for communication. He said, "Without the Supreme Leader's order and the will of the people, Iran will never allow even a single liter of oil to flow out of the Strait." He also stated that the Iranian military is currently on high alert, with "fingers on the trigger." He claimed that U.S. hegemony in the Persian Gulf has ended and reaffirmed Iran's ability to respond to any form of naval blockade.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before the price is set.
Odaily Odaily News According to the latest weekly report from Gate Ventures, there are signs of a staged recovery at the macro level. While major stock indices showed divergent performance, the overall trend was upward, and market risk appetite has somewhat improved. Against this backdrop, the crypto market rebounded in tandem, with BTC rising by 6.6% and ETH by 4.7%. They also recorded net spot ETF inflows of approximately $823.7 million and $155 million respectively, indicating a strengthening return of capital. The total market capitalization increased by 5.2%, while the market cap excluding BTC and ETH grew by 2.6%, suggesting that upward momentum is beginning to spread to a broader range of assets, albeit at a relatively moderate pace.In terms of asset and sector dynamics, structural opportunities continue to emerge. The top 30 assets averaged a 4.2% increase. Meanwhile, advancements at the on-chain and industry levels are persisting, including ongoing developments in digital currency infrastructure and asset tokenization. Regarding investment and financing, 12 transactions were completed last week, with a total disclosed financing amount of approximately $54.89 million, representing a month-over-month increase of about 31%. Capital primarily flowed into DeFi and infrastructure sectors. Notably, JPYC secured $17.62 million in funding to advance the infrastructure development of its yen-backed stablecoin. 3F completed a $4 million seed funding round, with participants including Gate Ventures. Against the backdrop of a marginally improving macro environment, investment and financing activity has picked up, with capital still focusing on long-term application scenarios and foundational capability building amidst volatile conditions.
According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), over the past 24 hours, the whale address 0xed4 deposited 5,532 ETH—worth approximately $13 million—into HyperLiquid for selling purposes. Meanwhile, this address has closed its 20x ETH short position on HyperLiquid but still maintains a 20x ETH short position on Lighter.
According to BIT on Target’s weekly report, the Bitcoin bear market phase may be nearing its end, with multiple time-frame signals gradually converging. The weekly stochastic oscillator has declined to its lowest level since January 2023—a reading that historically corresponds to market bottom zones. Meanwhile, the trend model has also turned bullish, and the current price action exhibits stronger continuity conditions compared to the previous two signal reversals. On the price front, Bitcoin is currently consolidating near $70,000, gradually approaching its 21-week moving average—the critical bull-bear demarcation line. The report notes that $73,000 has served as a key inflection point since March 2024; a decisive breakout and sustained hold above this level would further confirm the reversal signal. On-chain capital inflow data shows a recent monthly inflow of approximately $1 billion—marking a clear improvement over prior periods of deep net outflows. The report also cautions that, before prices enter the target zone, the upward momentum may still be disrupted by short-term risk factors.
According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), the whale “0xb58” closed its $BRENTOIL (3x leverage) long position, realizing a profit of $1.93 million, and subsequently opened a new $BRENTOIL (3x leverage) long position for 50,000 tokens. Meanwhile, this whale still holds a $SOL (3x leverage) short position, currently incurring an unrealized loss of $2.23 million.
Bitcoin is once again approaching the $80,000 mark. Market analysis suggests that this level has become a key resistance point to test the strength of the current rebound. On the capital front, continued institutional inflows are providing support. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for six consecutive days, while Ethereum spot ETFs have also seen inflows for nine straight days, indicating a recovery in risk appetite. Meanwhile, whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have cumulatively added approximately 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, marking the largest monthly increase since 2013, and exchange reserves have fallen to their lowest point in seven years.In terms of on-chain data, Glassnode points out that Bitcoin has reclaimed the "Realized Price" (approximately $78,100). However, the cost basis for short-term holders sits around $80,100, forming a direct pressure zone. Should the price reach this range, over 54% of short-term investors would be in profit, a scenario historically associated with the peak of a rebound phase. At the same time, the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative, indicating a significant short position. Given the ongoing improvement in spot demand, this could provide short-squeeze momentum for a subsequent upward move.In summary, while the capital structure and market resilience have improved, the $80,000 level remains a key watershed. The market has yet to confirm whether it can transition from a resistance level to a support level. (The Block)
QCP released a market analysis stating that BTC rebounded from its overnight low near $75,000 to approximately $78,000; however, this rally appears more like a relief-driven correction following easing risk sentiment, rather than signaling the start of a new market phase. The report notes that Trump’s unilateral extension of the ceasefire with Iran has lowered near-term expectations of conflict escalation, yet the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and Iran’s stance remains unclear. Meanwhile, oil prices have held near $100 per barrel, resulting in concurrent inflationary pressures and slowing growth. QCP also points out that BTC open interest has risen noticeably while funding rates remain negative—indicating that short sellers are adding positions amid the rally. Overall, the options market continues to price in range-bound trading, not trend continuation.
Odaily News Cryptocurrency analyst Ai disclosed data on platform X, stating that companies in the artificial intelligence field raised approximately $242 billion in funding in the first quarter of 2026, accounting for about 80% of global venture capital. However, the capital was highly concentrated in a few "mega funding rounds," such as OpenAI's $122 billion round, Anthropic's $30 billion round, xAI's $20 billion round, and Waymo's $16 billion round. Meanwhile, enterprise AI spending continues to rise. Gartner predicts that global total AI spending will reach $2.52 trillion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 44%, with capital rapidly shifting from the application layer to infrastructure and computing power development.
According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), the well-known address Loracle (@loraclexyz) has opened a $HYPE short position worth $11 million with 5x leverage on HyperLiquid, and the position size is still increasing. Meanwhile, it holds a 5x long position in 374.66 $PAXG.
According to Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $67.77 million: BlackRock’s $ETHA saw an inflow of $76.05 million; BlackRock’s staking version $ETHB, an inflow of $13.19 million; and Invesco’s $QETH, an inflow of $1.16 million. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s $ETHE experienced an outflow of $17.05 million; Grayscale Mini $ETH, an outflow of $4.43 million; and Fidelity’s $FETH, an outflow of $1.16 million. All other products registered zero net inflow for the day.