News linked to both this project and an event.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin may have entered a new accumulation zone, but the potential structural bottom for this cycle remains around $48,000. Currently, Bitcoin’s post-adjustment seller risk ratio indicator shows that unprofitable supply is beginning to surpass profitable supply, and unrealized pressure on holders is rising significantly. Meanwhile, the Cumulative Value Destroyed Days (CVDD) valuation model indicates that Bitcoin’s structural bottom for this cycle is approximately $48,000.
Odaily informs that 1011 Insider Whale Garrett posted on X platform: "As it turns out, the only protracted winter is cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, crude oil has delivered returns. The strategy of shifting from cryptocurrency to stocks has worked out well."
According to Odaily, the crypto derivatives contract SPCX, linked to a potential SpaceX IPO, has seen a rebound on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, reigniting market expectations for the space company founded by Elon Musk's first day of trading.Data shows that the SPCX contract traded back up to approximately $176 to $183 on Friday, recovering from a dip to around $153 earlier this week. This marks a significant bounce from the roughly $157 level observed when market attention peaked on Wednesday. The contract currently has an open interest of about $216 million, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding $150 million.SPCX does not represent ownership of SpaceX stock, allocation rights, or equity in the company; it is a cash-settled derivative. However, with the SpaceX IPO price set at $135 per share, the market views this contract as a key benchmark for gauging investor expectations of the opening price on the first day of listing.At the current price of around $183, SPCX implies a first-day premium of about 36% for SpaceX. Earlier, in May, the contract surged to $216, corresponding to a roughly 60% premium over the IPO price. When the contract fell to $157 earlier this week, the implied market premium narrowed to about 16%.Meanwhile, other informal market signals also indicate a rebound in investor sentiment. Bloomberg reports that derivatives data from IG International implies a market valuation for SpaceX of approximately $2.4 trillion, which is over 35% higher than the roughly $1.77 trillion valuation implied by the IPO price. Additionally, Polymarket users are currently assigning a 70% probability to SpaceX's market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion at the close of its first trading day.SPCX had previously fallen by about 30% over several weeks, reflecting traders' cautious stance on SpaceX's listing performance. The recent rebound suggests the market is re-pricing the potential for a higher valuation premium from the SpaceX IPO. (CoinDesk)
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "On the second trading day of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on the Nasdaq, will its opening price be greater than or equal to its first-day closing price (i.e., open higher on the second day)?"SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 prospectus on May 20 and is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on June 12. This IPO breaks tradition by adopting a fixed price of $135 per share, aiming to raise $75 billion, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Market traders are divided: positions betting on a higher opening on the second day are mainly supported by Starlink's strong revenue performance and the potential of space-based orbital data centers and computing power from the merger with xAI (restructured as SpaceXAI) in February 2026. Meanwhile, cautious short positions are primarily concerned about its high trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 90x, the significant losses from its AI business, and the amplifying effect of Musk's dual-class share structure on stock price volatility in the early stages of listing.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing the changes before the price is set.
market maker Wintermute released a weekly market analysis report stating that Bitcoin fell below $62,000 last week, with a weekly decline of approximately 14%, hitting a new low since September 2024. Wintermute believes that although Strategy founder Michael Saylor disclosed the sale of 32 BTC, drawing market attention, the scale of this transaction is negligible. The real reason for the market's weakness is the continuous reduction of positions by U.S. institutional investors and the outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs.Wintermute pointed out that the U.S. added 172,000 non-farm jobs in May, far exceeding the market expectation of approximately 80,000. Meanwhile, job openings rose to a near two-year high, and the service price index hit a new high since August 2022. Strong economic data has weakened market expectations for a Fed rate cut, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.55%, creating a "good news is bad news" macro environment that pressures risk assets.Meanwhile, the rally in AI concept stocks has shown signs of weakening, with the Nasdaq index falling 4.7% for the week and the S&P 500 recording its first weekly decline since March. Wintermute believes that the pullback in the AI sector, rising yields, and the upcoming SpaceX IPO have collectively dampened market risk appetite.In the crypto market, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days as of May 30, with total outflows of approximately $2.97 billion. The net outflow in May reached $2.43 billion, marking the worst monthly performance since 2026. Wintermute OTC data shows that retail funds continue to flow into U.S. stocks, while U.S. institutional investors have recently turned bearish and are leading the selling.However, Wintermute believes there are also positive signals in the market, including long-term capital gradually building positions at current price levels. From a perspective of more than one year, Bitcoin's risk-reward ratio is becoming more attractive. The report stated that the SpaceX IPO on June 12 will serve as an important barometer for observing market risk appetite. If the issuance is smoothly absorbed, it could help boost market sentiment; conversely, it may exacerbate the pressure on risk assets.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 last week, recording its worst single-week performance since the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022. In the seven days through Sunday, Bitcoin accumulated a decline of 16%, retreating over 50% from its all-time high of over $126,000 in 2025.Multiple market analysts have warned that the current rebound may be difficult to sustain, and Bitcoin may not have reached the bottom of this cycle yet. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, stated that the market is still "a considerable distance" from a "true bottom."Data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with total outflows reaching approximately $5.5 billion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin last week fell below the 200-week moving average, widely regarded as a key support level, further weakening market confidence. Paul Howard, a senior executive at crypto trading firm Wincent, described the current market conditions as a "silent bear market," arguing that breaking below the 200-week moving average is a significant confirmation signal that the market has entered a bear phase.Analysts point out that the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, the reversal of expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and strong U.S. employment data are driving the market to reassess the rate path. A high-interest-rate environment is unfavorable for the performance of risk assets, including crypto assets. Additionally, some capital is flowing out of the crypto market into artificial intelligence and technology stock sectors.Despite this, the magnitude of the current correction is still smaller than historical bear market cycles. In past bear markets, Bitcoin typically retraced about 80% from its peak, whereas this cycle's decline is approximately 50%. Some traders believe that if the macroeconomic environment continues to deteriorate and companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin face financing pressures, the market still faces further downside risks in the future. (Bloomberg)
Humility Protocol released a security incident update on the X platform, stating that its H token suffered a coordinated attack on the Ethereum and BSC chains yesterday, with confirmed losses exceeding $36 million in stolen and dumped assets.Preliminary investigations indicate the incident originated from a compromised employee computer, which led to the leakage of private keys for the multi-signature wallet controlling the Hyperlane Bridge ProxyAdmin. Specifically, the attacker obtained 3 out of 6 private keys of the Gnosis Safe wallet on the Ethereum chain, transferred ownership of the ProxyAdmin to a wallet under their control, upgraded the bridge contract to a malicious implementation, and subsequently transferred approximately 141.2 million H tokens in a single transaction.Simultaneously, the attacker also gained control of 3 out of 5 private keys of the Safe wallet on the BSC chain, took over the ProxyAdmin using the same method, deployed a malicious contract with unlimited minting functionality, and minted 200 million H tokens in two separate transactions to their own wallet.Humility stated that it has suspended all deposit and withdrawal operations on the affected bridge services and is collaborating with partners such as exchanges to mitigate losses. Meanwhile, it is cooperating with the police investigation and attempting to recover part of the stolen funds.
According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Ember, the "private key leak" has allowed the minting and dumping of H to continue for 13 hours. The so-called "hacker" is still able to mint H on the BSC chain and sell it off, draining every last cent from the pools. The "hacker" has minted 300 million H and sold a total of approximately 450 million H, cashing out $34 million (ETH+BNB). The H pool on BSC has been drained to just $13 in liquidity, and the price of H has plummeted 99.9% to $0.0009. Meanwhile, the perpetual contract price on CEX stands at $0.09, a 100x difference. In essence, they have de-pegged into two unrelated tokens.
According to an independent analyst report by Markus Thielen on June 9, just days remain before SpaceX’s IPO, and market expectations continue to intensify. There is currently little indication that SpaceX will raise its expected offering price of $135, suggesting the targeted fundraising amount of $7.5 billion has already been substantially subscribed. Meanwhile, pre-IPO synthetic perpetual contracts tied to SpaceX are trading at $157 on Hyperliquid and $169 on Binance—both significantly above the expected offering price—with implied valuations on both platforms approaching $2 trillion. Although prices have retreated from earlier highs near $200, prediction markets still assign a 68% probability that SpaceX’s valuation will exceed $2 trillion by year-end, reflecting traders’ broad expectation of a strong IPO performance.
BIT Group posted on X platform, stating that with only days remaining until the SpaceX IPO, market expectations are heating up, with a general consensus that the stock is likely to perform well post-listing. Unlike many recent IPOs, there are currently few signs that SpaceX will raise its offering price, indicating that the target fundraising amount of $75 billion has already received fairly sufficient subscription coverage.Meanwhile, SpaceX-related pre-IPO synthetic perpetual contracts are trading at around $157 on Hyperliquid (calculated based on the old 11.9 billion share count) and quoting $169 on Binance, both significantly higher than the expected IPO price of $135. Although prices have fallen from around $200 a few days ago and undergone a repricing, the current implied valuations on both platforms still approach nearly $2 trillion, indicating that traders still anticipate a strong market debut for SpaceX. Prediction markets are also leaning towards optimism, with the current probability of SpaceX's valuation exceeding $2 trillion by the end of the year standing at 68%.
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's price has retraced approximately 20% over the past month, with two key on-chain indicators showing sustained market sentiment pressure. Among them, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score has dropped from 0.95 a month ago to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that the previous valuation premium has largely been digested and the market has entered a range more conducive to long-term accumulation.Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day simple moving average of Net Realized Profit/Loss has been in negative territory for 22 consecutive days, meaning the market has been completing transactions at a loss since May 18. The indicator hit a low of approximately -$1.2 billion on June 6 and has since slightly recovered to around -$1.1 billion. Although market pressure is evident, it remains below the extreme levels of approximately -$2.2 billion seen during the 2022 bear market capitulation phase.Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that currently, a large number of holders are selling Bitcoin below their cost basis, reflecting significant market fear and capitulation sentiment. However, the MVRV Z-score remains above 0, suggesting that the market has not yet entered a deeply undervalued zone, nor has it presented a historically significant value trough.He believes that combining these two indicators, while market sentiment is relatively weak, valuations have clearly cooled down. Going forward, key focus points will be whether the Net Realized Profit/Loss can return above the zero line and whether the MVRV Z-score can maintain a positive value. If the MVRV Z-score falls below 0, or realized losses move closer to the extreme levels of 2022 once again, it could signal the onset of a deeper phase of market capitulation.
Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has entered a deeper correction phase, dropping to a low of $59,200 on June 5, a cumulative 53% decline from its all-time high in October 2025. This decline is primarily driven by record outflows from spot ETFs, derivative deleveraging, and sustained pressure from a high-interest-rate macroeconomic environment. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note currently remains above 4.45%, further dampening market expectations for a Fed rate cut.On-chain and fund flow data suggest the current market is closer to a "distribution phase" than "panic selling." The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has turned significantly negative after strong accumulation from April to May, indicating that recent buyers are steadily exiting. Meanwhile, the cost basis for short-term holders has fallen below the True Market Mean of $77,800, meaning a large number of new investors are in unrealized loss positions, creating significant selling pressure for any potential rebound. As the price approaches the overall realized cost basis of around $53,900, the characteristic of reducing positions on bounces is becoming more pronounced.At the macro level, the US economy continues to grow, but inflation is eroding real household income. The job market remains robust, with job openings hitting a nearly two-year high and continued job creation exceeding replacement levels. Sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing, construction, and leisure and hospitality are all expanding. However, inflation is expected to continue outpacing wage growth, leading to a decline in real purchasing power and presenting the Fed with a more complex balance between maintaining employment and controlling inflation.The key driver of current market trends has shifted to real yields. Driven by rising energy prices and geopolitical risks, inflation expectations are heating up, pushing both nominal and real yields on US Treasuries higher. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, prompting investors to reassess their allocation to risk assets. Bitcoin has been the first to feel the impact, with US spot ETFs experiencing their largest outflows since launch. The market has also shifted from betting on rate cuts to pricing in the risk of "higher for longer" interest rates. Bitfinex Alpha believes that, in the current phase, the trajectory of real yields has become the most important variable influencing performance in both traditional financial and digital asset markets.Despite short-term pressure, the institutionalization process continues. The report notes that Securitize's approval to list on the New York Stock Exchange signals that tokenization infrastructure is further integrating into the traditional financial system. Concurrently, the US GENIUS Act is advancing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, bringing issuers under compliance requirements similar to those for traditional financial institutions. The institutio
BIT's weekly market review indicates the crypto market continued its weakness last week. BTC fell from approximately $73,400 on June 1st to around $63,100 on Monday morning this week, dipping to about $61,400 during trading on June 4th. ETH faced similar pressure, dropping to around $1,680.BIT stated that the core factor behind this adjustment remains financial pressure. The BTC spot ETF experienced net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $4.4 billion. Meanwhile, whale sell-offs and expectations surrounding the transfer of Mt.Gox-related wallets further exacerbated market selling pressure.The report points out that as BTC approached the key support level of $60,000, the market has seen a preliminary rebound in the past 24 hours. Going forward, key areas to monitor include whether ETF capital continues to flow back, whether the $60,000 support level can hold, and the impact of this week's U.S. CPI data on market risk appetite.
Crypto analyst Ali posted on X, stating that Coinbase will face a critical technical test next week. If it holds above $141, it could trigger a rebound and potentially rally toward $185; however, if it breaks below this key support level, further downside risk looms, with a potential target near $74. Meanwhile, analyst Hussein Kashmar noted that the weekly support level at $145 is also highly significant—this zone has historically attracted strong buying interest. Market participants are now watching closely to see whether bulls can successfully defend this current support area. Should buying pressure fail to materialize effectively, Coinbase may retreat further into the prior breakout range of $100–$115.
due to profit-taking in AI concept assets and a decline in market risk appetite, Bitcoin has fallen to around $62,000, down nearly 16% from its high of over $74,000 last week. Market analysts believe that if Bitcoin loses the $60,000 mark, its next key technical support level could be around $55,000. Additionally, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for 15 consecutive trading days, totaling over $4.7 billion. Meanwhile, Strategy disclosed this week that it has sold Bitcoin for the first time since 2022, which has also dampened market expectations for institutional buying.
According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $2.69 million yesterday, ending a 13-day streak of net outflows (totaling approximately $4.37 billion). BlackRock’s $IBIT saw a single-day inflow of $47.3 million, and Morgan Stanley’s $MSBT recorded an inflow of $9.87 million—making them the primary contributors. Meanwhile, ARK’s $ARKB experienced an outflow of $20.72 million, Bitwise’s $BITB an outflow of $15.57 million, and Invesco’s $BTCO an outflow of $12.65 million; all other products saw zero net fund flows.
According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), the wallet “0x466”—linked to the “7 Siblings”—borrowed $60 million and purchased 32,919 ETH at an average price of $1,762, spending approximately $58 million; $2 million worth of orders remain unfilled. Meanwhile, the dormant “old whale” wallet “0x293” sold 10,000 ETH at an average price of $1,772, cashing out roughly $17.72 million in USDC.
According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), as the market declined, the 3x BTC short position held by the whale “pension-usdt.eth” has generated a floating profit exceeding $3.2 million, and the whale has begun closing this position. Meanwhile, the whale has opened a new 3x ETH short position, and its size continues to increase.
According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $90.14 million: BlackRock’s $ETHA saw an outflow of $44.27 million, Grayscale’s $ETH (mini) an outflow of $25.41 million, and Fidelity’s $FETH an outflow of $15.63 million; all other products experienced no fund flows. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF $IBIT recorded a net outflow of 6,164 BTC (approximately $440 million) on the same day—its 11th consecutive day of net outflows—with a single-day trading volume reaching $2.2 billion.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, institutions and whales continue to increase their holdings of HYPE.Among them, Galaxy Digital withdrew 179,000 HYPE from Coinbase in the past 7 hours, worth approximately $12.62 million. Meanwhile, a new address starting with 0x6436 withdrew another 135,800 HYPE, worth approximately $9.73 million, 8 hours ago, bringing its total withdrawals over the past two days to 399,700 HYPE, worth about $28.92 million.The two addresses mentioned above have cumulatively bought or withdrawn 539,500 HYPE, with a total value of approximately $41.54 million.