US-Iran Conflict: Six Weeks In, Bitcoin Market Shows Divergence—Institutions Keep Buying, While Whales and Miners Accelerate Selling

According to CoinDesk, against the backdrop of the ongoing U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict—now lasting approximately six weeks—the Bitcoin market is clearly bifurcating into two camps: “passive buyers,” represented by Strategy and spot ETFs, continue accumulating BTC, while whales, mining companies, and certain sovereign holders are shifting toward selling. The selling pressure is evident: whale addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC have shifted from net buying to substantial net selling, with their year-to-date holdings changing from roughly +200,000 BTC to –188,000 BTC; publicly listed mining firms, under mounting cost pressures, have also concentrated their selling—offloading over 19,000 BTC in a single week. Additionally, sovereign holders such as Bhutan have sold approximately 70% of their Bitcoin reserves since October 2024. Analysis suggests that although market sentiment briefly plunged into the “extreme fear” zone, Bitcoin’s price has remained range-bound between $65,000 and $73,000, indicating that this “floor” is primarily propped up by a narrow base of institutional buying. Currently, the buyer base continues to contract, and the market’s next directional move will hinge on whether institutional inflows can sustain momentum and break through key resistance levels.