News linked to both this project and an event.
pricing on the Kalshi prediction market indicates the market currently sees only about a 50% probability of a Fed rate cut before 2027, a sharp decline from the 80-90% probability seen earlier this year. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes, the market is effectively pricing in a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, reflecting a lack of confidence in near-term monetary policy easing.
Odaily Bitcoin remained consolidating above $77,000 on Wednesday, with markets cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. According to market data, Bitcoin fluctuated within the range of approximately $75,689 to $77,837 during the session, and is currently trading around $77,100.This FOMC meeting is seen as a pivotal event. Markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged, but the real focus is on whether Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will signal a "higher-for-longer" hawkish stance. Additionally, this meeting may be his last as Fed Chair, with markets simultaneously pricing in uncertainty regarding policy direction and potential power transitions.On the capital front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a reversal after nine consecutive days of net inflows. SoSoValue data shows that on April 28, ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $89.68 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day outflow of about $112 million. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs also logged net outflows of $21.8 million.On-chain data also signals caution. CryptoQuant noted that on April 27, exchange net inflows reached 9,905 BTC, the largest single-day inflow in nearly 30 days. Exchange reserves have also rebounded recently. If these inflows are not quickly absorbed, prices could retest the support range of $74,000–$75,000.On the macroeconomic front, fluctuations in crude oil prices and shifts in the Middle East energy landscape continue to influence inflation expectations. Some analysts believe this could limit the Fed's room for future easing. Meanwhile, market liquidity continues to weaken, with institutional trading volumes and perpetual contract activity both at low levels. This means any policy surprise could amplify price volatility.Overall, Bitcoin remains in a "low liquidity + high event risk" structure and may continue to oscillate within the $72,000 to $80,000 range in the short term, awaiting further clarity on the Fed's policy path. (The Block)
CFTC Chairman Mike Selig, in an interview with CoinDesk, stated that the CFTC is developing tools leveraging AI to review registration applications for the U.S. crypto market and monitor trading activity. Mike Selig noted that due to federal government layoffs, which have reduced the agency's workforce by more than one-fifth, AI and automation technologies will be used to fill the manpower gap and improve the efficiency of document review. Currently, his employees are undergoing training on Microsoft Copilot, while the agency is also developing internal tools for reviewing swaps data and market surveillance.Furthermore, Mike Selig stated that the digital asset classification guide jointly released by the CFTC and the SEC is the most important initiative during his tenure, aimed at providing regulatory clarity for market participants. Regarding prediction markets, Mike Selig reiterated the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction and emphasized that strict enforcement actions will be taken against violations such as insider trading.
the Israel Capital Market Authority has approved Bits of Gold to issue the country's first shekel-pegged stablecoin, BILS. The token is a regulated asset launched by Bits of Gold after a two-year evaluation and pilot program, with support from the Solana network, Fireblocks, and Ernst & Young. Bits of Gold stated that bringing the shekel on-chain aims to position it alongside currencies such as the euro, the Japanese yen, and the Singapore dollar, which have already entered the blockchain financial system. Currently, the stablecoin market size has exceeded $300 billion. This issuance aims to address the dominance of dollar-pegged tokens in on-chain payments and safeguard digital sovereignty.
on Sunday that after the Department of Justice concluded its investigation into Powell, Republican Senator Thom Tillis dropped his opposition to Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve Chair nomination confirmation process. The Senate Banking Committee ultimately voted 13 to 11 in favor of sending Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair to a full Senate vote. According to the official website of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, the vote is scheduled for April 29th at 10:00 AM Eastern Time.On the same day, the Federal Open Market Committee will also announce its latest interest rate decision. Current Chair Jerome Powell will preside over his 63rd—and potentially final—press conference since taking the helm of the Federal Reserve eight years ago. Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 15th, but his term as a Board member runs until January 31, 2028. Whether Powell will also step down from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has become a key focus for the market.
According to Blockchain for Europe, the European Blockchain Association, together with Dr. Ulrich Bindseil, former Director General of Market Infrastructure and Payments at the European Central Bank, and Erwin Voloder, the Association’s Director of Research and Strategy, jointly released the report “Reforming MiCA to Support Euro Stablecoins” on April 27. The report acknowledges MiCA’s significance as a landmark regulatory framework, while also pointing out that certain design choices may place Europe in an unfavorable zone of the regulatory “Laffer curve”—overly stringent requirements could undermine the competitiveness of EU markets and drive related business activities outside the EU. To address this, the report puts forward a series of targeted, pragmatic reform proposals aimed at enabling MiCA to foster a more competitive, resilient, and globally influential euro stablecoin ecosystem. It further calls on policymakers, industry participants, and all stakeholders to actively engage in discussions to collectively advance the continuous refinement of the MiCA framework.
Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzes that the current macro framework for the crypto market has shifted from “liquidity trades awaiting rate cuts” to a constraining environment characterized by “higher-for-longer interest rates + sticky inflation + war-related shocks.” According to the latest Reuters survey, most economists have pushed back their expectations for rate cuts to after September, with nearly one-third believing no cuts will occur this year. The primary reason is that the Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices, pushing inflation trajectories higher once again and thereby constraining the Federal Reserve’s policy space. This shift directly undermines the two key narratives previously supporting crypto assets: expectations of liquidity easing and a declining interest-rate path. Elevated oil prices, coupled with consecutive upward revisions to PCE inflation expectations, increase the likelihood that interest rates will remain high—or even extend their elevated period—leading to a higher discount rate and shrinking risk budgets. As a result, marginal capital inflows into the crypto market are diminishing, and high-volatility assets broadly face mounting pressure.
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill—the Clarity Act—has seen no significant public progress over the past month and is not expected to achieve a breakthrough in April. The report notes that if the bill is to pass before the election, May 25—Memorial Day—is viewed as a critical milestone for advancement; after that date, members of Congress will gradually shift into campaign mode, leaving less time for legislative work. At present, it remains unclear whether the Senate Banking Committee will move forward with related hearings. Issues such as stablecoin yields and other outstanding matters have also yet to be publicly resolved. Even if these disagreements are addressed, the House of Representatives would still need to vote on the bill again.
The Vietnamese government plans to launch a five-year cryptocurrency asset pilot program in Q2 2026, shifting previously offshore-dominated, unregulated crypto trading into an onshore, regulated market. Currently, Vietnamese traders’ annual cryptocurrency transaction volume stands at $22–23 billion, exceeding $600 million daily. The new pilot will only allow participation by locally registered institutions that meet stringent capital and compliance requirements, and all traded assets must be backed by real-world assets and settled in Vietnamese đồng (VND).
Odaily Odaily: U.S. President Trump stated at a private event for TRUMP Meme coin holders held at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida that the White House will not allow banking lobbying groups to hinder the progress of the crypto market structure bill, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. He said the crypto industry has entered the mainstream, declaring "America is the leader in crypto," and that banks should not obstruct the establishment of stablecoin and crypto regulatory frameworks.Dubbed the "most exclusive meeting in the world," the event invited hundreds of large TRUMP coin holders. Guests included Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood, Anchorage Digital CEO Nathan McCauley, and boxing champion Mike Tyson. Previously, the U.S. banking industry had expressed concerns that stablecoin reward mechanisms could impact traditional deposit businesses, which had slowed the legislative process. (CoinDesk)
The People’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the China National Intellectual Property Administration, the Cyberspace Administration of China, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange jointly issued the “Measures for the Online Marketing of Financial Products,” which will take effect on September 30, 2026. The Measures clarify that, except for financial institutions and third-party internet platforms lawfully entrusted by them, no other organizations or individuals may engage in online marketing of financial products; no institution or individual may provide online marketing services or facilitation for illegal financial activities, and explicitly include virtual currency issuance and trading, illegal foreign exchange margin trading, and other activities within the scope of illegal financial activities.
According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market weakened overall on Friday, with BTC hovering near $77,800—its upward momentum since Wednesday’s rally from $65,000 notably slowing. ETH traded at $2,300, down approximately 0.8% over the past 24 hours, underperforming BTC. Market pressure stems primarily from two sources: First, Japan’s March Corporate Services Price Index rose 3.1% year-on-year—above expectations—and core inflation accelerated, raising market expectations that the Bank of Japan may signal an interest rate hike at its next policy meeting; a stronger yen could trigger unwinding of global risk-asset carry trades. Second, the ongoing Iran conflict continues disrupting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz; WTI crude futures have surged over 40% since the outbreak of hostilities, reaching $96 per barrel. The U.S. Department of Defense warned that mine clearance will take at least six months, implying persistent global inflationary pressures and further constraining the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates.
According to CoinDesk, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit on April 24 against Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, accusing these platforms of operating unlicensed gambling businesses under the guise of “event contracts.” The complaint cites marketing language used by the platforms themselves—for instance, Kalshi’s claim to be “the first legal sports betting platform in the U.S.,” and Polymarket’s statement that users can “bet on the outcomes of future events”—to argue that such contracts constitute wagering under Wisconsin law. The state government further noted that the platforms’ business model—charging fees per transaction—is functionally identical to casinos’ commission-based revenue structure. At the heart of this case lies a jurisdictional dispute: whether prediction market contracts fall under federal regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or are subject to individual states’ gambling laws. Similar lawsuits have already been filed by multiple states, and this conflict is expected to ultimately be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court.
Polymarket, a crypto prediction market platform, has become embroiled in an insider trading controversy due to predictive trading centered on US President Donald Trump's related policies and statements. Data shows that from April 5th to April 8th alone, markets related to the situation in Iran generated approximately 413 million predictions, involving funds exceeding $100 million.Analysts point out that Trump's highly unpredictable decision-making style has significantly boosted activity in the prediction market. Topics such as whether he will take military action against Iran or push for a ceasefire have become high-frequency trading targets. Related trading volumes surged rapidly following his social media posts.Notably, Donald Trump Jr. was revealed to hold shares in Polymarket while also serving as an advisor to another prediction platform, Kalshi, sparking external questions about potential conflicts of interest and insider trading. Industry data indicates that political predictions have become the second-largest category in prediction markets, trailing only sports. Despite the escalating controversy, the overall attitude of US regulators remains relatively lenient, driving the continuous expansion of this sector. (Fortune)
Odaily News: New York State Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order on Wednesday prohibiting state government employees from using non-public information to trade in prediction markets or assisting others in profiting from it. This move aims to address growing concerns over "insider betting" in prediction markets.According to the executive order, all government officials appointed by the governor or under her jurisdiction, as well as members of public agencies, are prohibited from using any non-public information obtained in the course of their duties to seek profits or avoid losses in prediction markets or similar services. They are also barred from assisting others in such activities. The governor mentioned in the document that the current "rapid expansion of prediction markets" has drawn regulatory attention.The day before, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker also issued a similar executive order, banning state government personnel from using non-public information to participate in prediction market betting.Meanwhile, prediction market platform Kalshi disclosed that it has launched investigations into three insider trading cases involving candidates and has imposed fines and trading suspensions on the relevant individuals. One of those penalized is Mark Moran, a candidate in the Virginia State Senate Democratic primary, who was penalized for betting on his own campaign and stated he "hoped to be caught."
According to Cointelegraph, Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal stated that the company has removed the lawsuit filed against it by New York Attorney General Letitia James—regarding its prediction markets business—from state court to federal court, citing a substantial federal legal question concerning the regulation of event contracts. The lawsuit also involves Gemini Titan. New York alleges that the relevant prediction market products violate the state’s gambling laws and seeks penalties, disgorgement of alleged illegal profits, user compensation, and an injunction prohibiting the offering of similar products in New York without compliance with state law.
According to Hong Kong media outlet HK01, before attending the Executive Council meeting, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region John Lee addressed journalists’ questions regarding the suspension of the basketball betting tax policy. He stated that the Home and Youth Affairs Bureau must conduct regular reviews, and before continuing with the basketball betting tax policy, the government hopes to manage associated risks—a move he considers appropriate. Lee emphasized that the suspension is not solely due to gambling concerns but also relates to virtual currencies. The Hong Kong government has observed a sharp rise in trading volume on illegal gambling “prediction markets,” which are linked to the ability to place bets using cryptocurrencies; therefore, the policy should not be advanced blindly.
Odaily News The Russian State Duma (the lower house of parliament) has passed the "Digital Currency and Digital Rights Bill" in its first reading, marking a crucial step towards the legalization of crypto assets in the country. According to the bill, the Bank of Russia will become the core regulatory body for the crypto market, responsible for issuing licenses, approving or prohibiting related transactions, and defining the legality of transactions.The bill intends to recognize cryptocurrencies as "property" but explicitly prohibits their use as a means of payment within the country, with the ruble remaining the sole legal tender. However, against the backdrop of Western sanctions, crypto assets can be used for cross-border trade settlements, including scenarios such as service payments and intellectual property transfers.Furthermore, the bill allows Russian residents to legally invest in crypto assets through licensed institutions, but will implement an investor classification system, setting up tests and annual investment quota limits (with a suggested cap of 300,000 rubles) for ordinary investors. Initially, only high-market-cap mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum will be permitted for trading, with a whitelist to be established by the central bank.The bill is expected to be formally passed and take effect no later than July 2026. However, some lawmakers and banking industry figures have criticized it for being overly strict in regulation, potentially affecting market activity and even leading to funds remaining in the gray market. Simultaneously, supporting legislation is also planned to introduce criminal penalties, with illegal crypto transactions potentially punishable by up to 7 years in prison. (Cryptopolitan)
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Senate’s Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has been delayed by several months, though a path forward remains amid a tight legislative calendar. Sources indicate that the bill’s original April timeline is now largely unattainable; the earliest it could reach committee review in the Senate is May. If the Senate manages to complete its vote before July, the bill could still become law in 2026. However, analysts note that, given the limited legislative window and overlapping political priorities, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 stands at approximately 50%. Should significant disagreements emerge later, the bill risks further delay—or even being shelved entirely.
According to The Block, New York State Attorney General Letitia James filed a lawsuit against Coinbase and Gemini on Tuesday, accusing both companies of violating New York’s gambling laws through their prediction market platforms and permitting users aged 18 to 21 to participate—despite New York law requiring participants in mobile sports betting to be at least 21 years old. The state is seeking at least $2.2 billion in damages from Coinbase and at least $1.2 billion from Gemini, along with civil penalties, refunds to users, and forfeiture of illicit proceeds. In response, Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal stated that prediction markets fall under the regulatory authority of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and the company will continue defending federal regulatory jurisdiction. The dispute over regulatory authority for prediction markets has now increasingly moved into the judicial arena; the CFTC has previously sued several state governments attempting to shut down such platforms.