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Analyst Murphy stated that Bitcoin's current chip concentration is similar to that before the 2022 FTX collapse, and a highly concentrated chip structure could amplify price volatility. Jiang Zhuoer believes that if the CLARITY Act fails to pass before Congress adjourns, Bitcoin may witness the final drop of the bear market.
According to Korean media Daum, volatility in the South Korean stock market has recently intensified, investor risk appetite has clearly cooled, and funds are flowing back from the stock market to safe-haven assets such as banks. Due to adjustments in the semiconductor sector and stricter regulation on leveraged investment, idle funds in the South Korean stock market are withdrawing rapidly, and the market is exhibiting a phenomenon of "reverse capital migration". Data shows that as of the end of July, the time deposit balance at South Korea's five major banks (KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori, NH Nonghyup) reached 973.49 trillion won, an increase of 24.09 trillion won from the end of the previous month, marking the largest single-month increase this year. Funds related to the stock market also showed significant contraction. According to data from the Korea Financial Investment Association, investor securities account deposits (idle funds for stock trading) reached a historical high of 139.69 trillion won on June 4, but as of July 28, had fallen to 107.20 trillion won, a decrease of over 32 trillion won in less than two months. The balance of credit transaction financing, representing the scale of market margin trading, fell to 33.19 trillion won during the same period, a decrease of about 4.5 trillion won from the peak of 37.72 trillion won set on July 2, a decline of approximately 12%.
Odaily News: Former US Congressman George Santos has reached a settlement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC stated that Santos engaged in manipulative trading behavior while trading a prediction contract on Kalshi regarding whether he would attend the State of the Union address in February 2026, profiting over $17,500 from the trades.According to the CFTC's Friday announcement, Santos is required to pay $35,000 as part of the settlement, but neither admitted nor denied the regulator's findings.The CFTC stated that in the two weeks leading up to the State of the Union address, Santos repeatedly made public comments about whether he would attend the event, causing significant fluctuations in the price of the event contract. For example, while holding a "Yes" position indicating he would attend, he posted on X asking what he should wear to the State of the Union. Within hours, the price of the Yes position rose, after which Santos closed his position for a profit.The CFTC also alleged that Santos subsequently continued to post updates about his travel to Washington, D.C., including flights and train rides, and profited by trading back and forth based on market reactions to his public statements. The CFTC stated that Santos's conduct was intentional, or at least reckless. He traded in an event contract whose underlying outcome he could influence, and affected the contract price through misleading public statements or omissions of information, thereby profiting from his trading positions.Santos's attorney, Joseph W. Murray, stated in Friday's announcement that the State of the Union contract was Santos's first foray into prediction market betting.
Odaily News: Tom Lee posted on the X platform, stating that given the "panic" among policymakers, the South Korean stock market may be in the final stage of bottoming out. Tom Lee also cited Appaloosa fund manager David Tepper, who said: "When policymakers start to panic, the market stops panicking."
HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) pointed out in her analysis that global risk assets continued to come under pressure this week. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh attempted to weaken forward guidance (Forward Guidance) for the first time, hoping to make market prices a more direct economic feedback mechanism. However, the market did not interpret the rise in long-term interest rates as a natural tightening of financial conditions, but instead interpreted it as inflation risks resurfacing and a decline in Federal Reserve policy credibility. The 30-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.2%, the US dollar weakened, and US stocks retreated, reflecting that investors are beginning to demand higher risk premiums rather than betting on an improvement in economic fundamentals.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
JPMorgan has stated the decreased probability of the Clarity Act passing this year poses an obstacle to the crypto market and institutional adoption. JPMorgan indicated that the legislation would provide regulatory clarity, encouraging banks and asset management firms to expand into the digital asset space. Related delays could shift tokenization towards traditional financial infrastructure rather than public blockchain networks.
According to BeInCrypto, the official verified X account of U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis was hacked on July 29. The account briefly posted a fake Solana Meme coin promotion post named $USA Token, featuring a pump.fun minting link. The post was deleted within approximately five minutes, accumulating around 5,600 views and 37 replies during that period. Crypto community users quickly issued warnings, and there are currently no records of financial losses. Lummis's office had not released any statement as of press time. The timing of this incident is sensitive, coinciding with the stalemate of the "Digital Asset Market Transparency Act" (CLARITY Act) championed by Lummis in Congress.
According to Bitcoin.com, digital asset wealth platform Nexo announced the completion of an upgrade to its European Economic Area (EEA) operational structure to comply with the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR). Nexo chose to partner with two entities regulated by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) rather than directly applying for a single MiCAR license: Tangany holds a MiCAR license and is responsible for providing segregated digital asset custody infrastructure; DLT Finance holds both MiCAR and MiFID II authorizations and is responsible for providing brokerage and execution infrastructure. Currently, all of Nexo's services in the EEA are operating seamlessly without any interruption.
: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will announce the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on July 29. The market widely expects the benchmark interest rate to remain unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% for the fifth consecutive time. Data from CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hold is between 95% and 98%. TD Securities stated that traders are still overestimating the probability of a surprise rate hike, and the related pricing includes a risk premium due to the Iran situation. The institution believes that if the Fed holds rates steady as expected, the deviation between current market pricing and actual policy action will narrow. TD Securities predicts that if the Fed keeps rates unchanged for an extended period, the dollar could fall by about 2% in the second half of 2026. The institution believes that the Fed needs to see clearer evidence of sustained inflation and a strong labor market before considering a rate hike.
on July 28 that U.S. Senator Jon Husted publicly supported the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, stating that if the United States wants to maintain its leading position in the digital asset field, it needs a clear, enforceable regulatory framework that supports innovation and employment.The CLARITY Act aims to establish the first comprehensive federal framework for crypto regulation in the U.S., dividing jurisdiction between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The bill classifies tokens into three categories, granting the CFTC exclusive regulatory authority over the spot market for digital commodities, while the SEC continues to oversee assets that still resemble securities.Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by 2026 from 50% to 30%. Alex Thorn, the firm's Head of Research, stated that the 60-vote threshold in the Senate is the main obstacle, and supporters may not yet hold a simple majority.The revised version of the bill proposes to prohibit the President, Vice President, members of Congress, federal judges, and their spouses from receiving compensation through the issuance or sponsorship of digital assets during their term in office until January 2029. It also requires relevant officials to sell their cryptocurrency holdings or place them in a blind trust.
Odaily News Kalshi trader Caleb Davies stated that he had requested Kalshi to delay the settlement of a Spotify prediction market to allow the执法 team to review suspected artificially manipulated streaming data. The market focused on which artists would top the Spotify US Daily Chart, with a trading volume of $3.32 million. Davies stated that Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and reached the top of the Spotify US Chart on June 29. Kalshi's Head of Enforcement and Legal, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listens or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after issuing this response. Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the emergence of the disputed streaming data. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings," meaning that under the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29 instead of first. Subsequently, Spotify requested Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana stated that the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation; Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, rescinded the settlement, or announced compensation.
According to CoinDesk, U.S. District Court Judge for the District of Minnesota Katherine Menendez ruled on July 28 local time that the Minnesota state law criminalizing the operation of prediction markets likely violates the federal Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), and granted a preliminary injunction to Kalshi, Polymarket, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to suspend the enforcement of the state law. The judge held that prediction market contracts structurally fall under 'swap' products within the CFTC's regulatory scope, federal law takes precedence over state law, and the three plaintiffs are 'likely to prevail in the formal trial'. Additionally, the judge noted that failing to suspend the enforcement of the law would cause 'irreparable harm' to Kalshi and Polymarket. The preliminary injunction will remain in effect until the final judgment of the case is issued.
U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez for the District of Minnesota ruled on Monday that a recently enacted Minnesota state law banning prediction markets may conflict with the Commodity Exchange Act. She granted a preliminary injunction in favor of Kalshi, Polymarket, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC had sued the state of Minnesota earlier this year after the state passed a law classifying the operation of prediction markets within the state as a criminal offense. The three parties argued that prediction market contracts are structured as "swaps" and that the state law infringes upon the CFTC's regulatory authority over such products. In her ruling, Judge Menendez stated that the parties are likely to succeed on the merits of their claim that the federal Commodity Exchange Act preempts the state law.
: New York Attorney General Letitia James submitted written testimony to the U.S. Congress, urging stronger regulation of cryptocurrency companies and warning that proposed federal legislation could undermine states' ability to investigate fraud and hold platforms accountable. Letitia James stated that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would preempt state-level digital asset market regulation and transfer oversight authority to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), thereby weakening state and local enforcement. She disclosed that the New York Attorney General’s Office has seen a threefold increase in crypto fraud complaints over the past three years, with total reported losses over the past five years approaching $500 million. She called on crypto platforms to comply with anti-money laundering, know-your-customer (KYC), and cybersecurity requirements, monitor suspicious activity and market manipulation, and be held financially responsible when they fail to protect customers from fraud.
: The world’s largest asset management company, BlackRock, has expressed support for the CLARITY Act. Samara Cohen, Senior Managing Director and Head of Global Market Development at BlackRock, stated the bill represents a significant step toward establishing an investor-first regulatory framework for digital assets. Cohen stated the bill will help shape the next phase of market structure in the US by supporting innovation while maintaining transparency, resilience, and investor protection. Fidelity, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, and Charles Schwab have previously expressed support for related legislation or clearer digital asset rules. Last week, the US Senate Republicans released an updated version of the CLARITY Act, integrating work from both the Senate Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee. Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated that relevant Senate work could extend beyond the August recess. Crypto advocacy group Stand With Crypto stated that it has sent over 925,000 emails to Congress in 2025, exceeding 1.1 million contacts with Congress since its founding. The organization said each Senate vote on the CLARITY Act will be included in a public congressional scorecard.
Odaily Odaily News A bipartisan group of Pennsylvania state legislators has introduced HB 2711, a bill aimed at prohibiting sportsbooks and other gambling companies from acting as liquidity providers or market makers on prediction platforms. The bill was introduced by State Representative Tarik Khan on July 22 and has been referred to the House Consumer Protection, Technology, and Utilities Committee. The bill would also bar prediction platforms from contracting or sharing revenue with enterprises primarily engaged in gambling activities, with restrictions covering parent companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, joint ventures, employees, and entities acting for the financial benefit of other companies. DraftKings and Flutter have both previously advanced market-making operations; DraftKings recently launched the DKeX exchange after acquiring CFTC-registered firm Railbird Technologies. HB 2711 proposes setting a minimum participation age of 21 and requires platforms to exclude self-excluded users, company employees, employees of settlement sources, and those holding material non-public information. The bill also mandates that platforms implement commercially reasonable measures to prevent fraud, manipulation, and the misuse of material non-public information, and prohibits markets involving high school sports, sports events involving minors, personal health conditions, and death events. The proposal does not establish a licensing system, with enforcement authority vesting in the state Attorney General. A companion bill, HB 2497, would require platforms to obtain a license from the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board and impose an aggregate 22% tax on the revenue of prediction betting platforms. Neither bill has yet received a committee vote or hearing.
according to data from the Korea Exchange, the combined daily trading volume of 16 single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell below the 10 trillion won mark this Monday (July 27), dropping to 7.46 trillion won. This represents a 27% decrease from the previous trading day and a more than 30% decline compared to the average daily trading volume of the previous week. Their share of the total trading volume in the Korean ETF market also fell to 36.9%. Among these, products related to SK Hynix still dominated trading, accounting for approximately 70% of the total trading volume of all single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs.Market analysts believe the cooling of trading is mainly due to new regulations from South Korea's financial authorities. Starting July 31, individual investors in South Korea who newly purchase or increase holdings of single-stock leveraged ETFs/ETNs must maintain a cash-based margin of at least 30 million won. Additionally, regulators plan to raise the minimum trading unit to further curb high-frequency short-term trading. (Duam)
sports merchandise and betting platform Fanatics will acquire a federally regulated exchange and clearing house from BGC to launch and settle its own prediction market operations. Fanatics and BGC also plan to develop new market data products that combine prediction market activity with traditional financial market data. This deal enables Fanatics to enter the prediction market space, competing directly with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.