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Arthur Hayes: Rising Oil Prices, AI-Related IPOs, and Trump's Anti-AI Rhetoric Could Pop the AI Bubble and Drag Down the Crypto Market

Odaily News, June 9th — BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article "Reality Test" that if oil prices continue to rise due to the US-Iran conflict, it could trigger a collapse of the AI stock bubble and drag the entire crypto market down.Hayes said that if traffic restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz persist deep into the second quarter, spot prices for hydrocarbons and other key commodities could rise in the third quarter. If oil prices continue to climb and inflationary pressures impact the US midterm elections, Trump might pivot to a tough stance targeting data center construction, AI regulation, and taxation. Hayes believes the market could anticipate Trump limiting AI capital expenditure and taxing AI companies, thereby triggering the burst of the AI stock bubble.Hayes also noted that since November 2022, the scale of AI-related debt issuance has been approximately $1.5 trillion, and US M2 has increased by roughly the same amount during the same period. He believes the three factors that could pop the AI bubble include rising energy costs, the market's inability to absorb three major AI-related IPOs — namely SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI — and Trump's shift to opposing AI. In terms of portfolio, Hayes stated that Maelstrom's stock portfolio holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers; he has sold AI-related stocks and offloaded non-core crypto assets, having dumped HYPE, NEAR, and WLD last week, as well as selling ZEC due to the Orchard Pool vulnerability. He still holds Bitcoin and ETH and will execute tactical short trades via derivatives.

Polymarket: "Zcash will hit $100 in 2026" probability rises to 53%, up 36% in 24H

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Zcash will hit $100 in 2026" on Polymarket has risen to 53%, a 24-hour increase of 36%.Market rules: If between 17:35 on November 24, 2025, and 23:59 on December 31, 2026 (Eastern Time), the lowest price (Low) of any 1-minute candlestick of the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair reaches or falls below the price stated in the title, this market will immediately settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No." Settlement is based solely on the 1-minute candlestick data of the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair; prices from other exchanges or trading pairs will not be considered.In previous news, the privacy coin Zcash disclosed and fixed a critical security vulnerability that could have been exploited by malicious miners to transfer over 25,000 ZEC (approximately $6.5 million) from the deprecated Sprout privacy pool. Officials stated that the vulnerability had existed since July 2020 but was not actually exploited, and user funds remained safe at all times. The development team has released version v6.12.0 to complete the fix, and major mining pools have already upgraded their deployments.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.

Dragonfly Partner: Zcash Vulnerability Incident Overhyped by Market, Majority of Holders Unaffected

Haseeb, Managing Partner at Dragonfly, has addressed the recently patched Zcash vulnerability, stating that there are many misconceptions in the market regarding the incident. He pointed out that even if the vulnerability had been exploited before the fix, an attacker could only profit by forging ZEC within the shielded pool. For these tokens to enter mainstream trading platforms, they would first need to be converted from shielded addresses to transparent addresses. Since the supply of ZEC in transparent addresses is publicly verifiable, any abnormal transfers exceeding the maximum supply would be detected and blocked. Therefore, the vast majority of investors and exchange users holding transparent ZEC would not be affected.Haseeb stated that the Zcash team plans to introduce a new “Turnstile” mechanism and a new shielded pool in future upgrades to verify that the current shielded pool does not suffer from inflation issues. He also noted that formally verified cryptographic systems can reduce implementation errors at the design level. Finally, Haseeb disclosed that Dragonfly still holds ZEC, and he is personally an investor in ZODL.

ZEC Treasury Company Cypherpunk Responds to Market Volatility: All Software Contains Vulnerabilities; Formal Verification Will Enhance Security

Cypherpunk, the ZEC treasury company, responded on X to the market volatility of the ZEC token, stating that all software contains vulnerabilities and citing the historical Bitcoin incident in which a bug led to the accidental minting of 184 billion BTC. However, this does not mean blockchain technology should be abandoned; instead, security should be enhanced through formal verification and provable correctness.

Polymarket: ZachXBT Reports Security Incident Related to Internal Operational Wallet Private Key Leakage; User Funds and Market Settlement Secure

Polymarket staff member Shantikiran Chanal posted on platform X, stating that they have taken note of the security reports related to reward distribution, and that user funds and market settlements remain safe. The investigation indicates that a private key leak occurred in a wallet used for internal operations, and the issue is not related to contracts or core infrastructure. Further updates will be provided.Previous report: ZachXBT stated that the Polymarket UMA CTF Adapter contract allegedly came under attack on Polygon, with over $520,000 having been drained.

Syndicate Labs Decides to Shut Down Due to Severe Market Contraction

Syndicate Labs stated that after five years of developing on-chain infrastructure for customizable Ethereum Rollups and sequencers, the company has decided to shut down due to a drastic contraction in the Rollup market. Syndicate Labs previously completed a $20 million Series A funding round led by Andreessen Horowitz in 2021.This decision caused the SYND token price to drop 21% in the past three hours, hitting an all-time low of $0.012, a 99.5% decline from its peak of $2.61 in September 2025.Additionally, Syndicate Labs stated that the Syndicate Network Collective operates independently of Syndicate Labs, so the governance of the SYND token will not be immediately affected. The decision to shut down was not influenced by the previous hacking incident involving bridged assets.

CLARITY Act Hearing Live: AI Regulatory Sandbox Amendment Passes, Amendment to Block High-Risk Assets from Retirement Accounts Rejected

the deliberation of the "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" (i.e., the CLARITY Act) has commenced in the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. As of now:1. An amendment proposed by Senator Mike Rounds to create an AI regulatory sandbox was passed with 15 votes in favor and 9 against, indicating some bipartisan support, despite Senator Elizabeth Warren urging Democratic members to vote against it.2. An amendment proposed by Elizabeth Warren, aimed at "preventing high-risk assets from entering retirement accounts," was rejected with 11 votes in favor and 13 against.3. An amendment previously proposed by Senator Katie Britt of Alabama, which would have allowed certain retirement accounts to invest in pooled investment vehicles, was withdrawn before the vote.It is reported that one of the most contentious amendments comes from Elizabeth Warren, concerning the strengthening of sanctions authority over cryptocurrency mixers. In her remarks, she referenced the U.S.-sanctioned mixing protocol Tornado Cash, stating it has been used to launder over $7 billion for criminal organizations and North Korean hacker groups, including over $450 million in related funds. Warren argued that the current bill does not grant the U.S. Treasury Department sufficient legal authority to isolate or restrict mixer services, potentially creating loopholes in anti-money laundering oversight. In response, Cynthia Lummis countered that the illegal financial activities are already covered in Parts Two and Three of the bill.

Gate Research: Crypto Market Warms Up in April with RWA and On-Chain Capital Flow in Focus

Odaily Odaily News Gate Research recently released its "April 2026 Cryptocurrency Market Review" report, indicating that the overall cryptocurrency market saw a volatile upward trend in April, with total market capitalization significantly higher than in March. BTC and ETH ETF trading volumes maintained high volatility overall. The report shows continued divergence in activity across major public chain ecosystems. Solana's daily transaction volume remained in the range of approximately 90 million to 110 million transactions, maintaining its leading position.Regarding trending sectors, the report notes that Pokemon TCG RWA has become one of the fastest-growing on-chain RWA sub-sectors, entering a second explosive growth phase in April. Major trading platforms saw monthly trading volumes exceed $220 million, with weekly revenue briefly approaching $6 million, setting new historical records. Meanwhile, Aave experienced its most severe liquidity crisis ever in April, with TVL outflows reaching tens of billions of dollars within a few days and net outflows exceeding $9 billion for the entire month.In terms of fundraising and security incidents, the Web3 industry completed 51 financing rounds in April, totaling approximately $834 million, with capital further concentrating on leading financial and infrastructure tracks. Among these, Payward ranked first for the month with a $200 million financing round. On the security front, Web3 security incidents in April resulted in losses of approximately $306 million, a month-over-month increase of about 858%, primarily driven by a single cross-chain infrastructure attack on Kelp DAO worth approximately $293 million. The report suggests that against the backdrop of a recovering market, on-chain activity and capital liquidity are both increasing simultaneously. However, the security risks associated with cross-chain infrastructure and high-leverage protocols remain worthy of continued attention.

Consensus Miami: Institutional Investors Remain Cautious Toward Perpetual DEXs; Security Risks and KYC Compliance Are Core Barriers

According to CoinDesk, at the “Perp DEX Explosion: Bullish Volumes and Bear Market Resilience” panel at Consensus Miami, several industry insiders stated that institutional investors are still largely avoiding decentralized exchanges offering perpetual futures (Perp DEXs). Veteran trader Wizard of SoHo pointed out that Drift’s recent multi-million-dollar hack highlights security vulnerabilities in the DeFi ecosystem, making secure onboarding of institutional capital a core competitive focus for major Perp DEXs. Anderson of Canary Labs expressed concern about DeFi’s current security posture, noting that large institutions face significantly greater challenges adopting decentralized exchanges compared to centralized platforms. Additionally, the structural tension between DeFi’s permissionless, open design and institutions’ stringent KYC compliance requirements is seen as a key barrier to scaling adoption. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, shared his views on AI-powered trading tools, stating that AI agents represent an evolutionary extension of algorithmic trading—and that trading will increasingly become fully automated.

ZachXBT: PolyArb is a Fake Prediction Market Product with a Wallet Drainer

"on-chain detective" ZachXBT posted on X platform, stating that PolyArb is a fake prediction market product with a wallet drainer on its website. Additionally, the product's account posted controversial replies under multiple tweets from well-known prediction markets to drive traffic and lure users into participating.

New York court orders Arbitrum DAO to freeze $71 million in ETH, potentially for compensation to victims of North Korea-related cases

: MegaETH lead PaperImperium disclosed on X platform a court document from the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, showing that a U.S. court has issued an injunction against the Arbitrum DAO, prohibiting it from transferring approximately $71 million worth of ETH assets that were previously frozen in the KelpDAO hacking incident. The plaintiffs are attempting to use these funds to enforce outstanding judgment compensation in cases related to North Korea's involvement in terrorism, kidnapping, and other matters spanning several years. They have also filed a motion to serve legal notice to the Arbitrum DAO via alternative means, treating it as an accountable "partnership." The court document further notes that the Arbitrum DAO has a Security Council governed by ARB holders, which has the authority to take action in emergencies. As a result, relevant members who refuse to comply may face legal consequences such as contempt of court. Market observers believe that this case could set an important precedent for the U.S. judicial system to directly constrain DAO governance structures, further highlighting the compliance pressure faced by DeFi protocols under real-world legal frameworks.

Standard Chartered: rsETH Security Incident Does Not Alter RWA Growth Thesis, Maintaining $2 Trillion Market Size Forecast

Standard Chartered Bank's latest report indicates that while the theft of KelpDAO's rsETH has severely impacted the DeFi ecosystem, it is insufficient to change the long-term growth trend of Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization. The bank maintains its forecast that the RWA tokenization market will grow from $35 billion in October 2025 to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, with the core drivers remaining the continued expansion of the DeFi banking system and stablecoin liquidity.Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated that this incident is more like DeFi being "bent, not broken," and could even serve as a significant turning point for the industry to move towards a more resilient structure. (The Block)

QCP: BTC Monthly Gain Exceeds 14%; Geopolitical and Security Incidents Disrupt Market Sentiment

QCP Group’s analysis states that U.S.-Iran negotiations have once again collapsed, while the Middle East ceasefire continues, leaving the overall geopolitical landscape relatively static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, with Trump suspected as the target. Following Asia’s market open, BTC briefly surged past $79,000 and ETH above $2,400—but gains quickly reversed amid concerns triggered by news of Iran’s Foreign Minister traveling to Russia for talks with Putin. Since early April, BTC has rallied over 14% cumulatively, marking four consecutive weeks of positive closes. Spot ETFs recorded nine straight days of net inflows totaling approximately $2.11 billion. Strategy funds added over $3.8 billion worth of BTC in the past month. The current key resistance level for BTC lies near the CME gap around $82,000. BTC perpetual contract funding rates remain persistently negative; a breakout above this level could trigger short-covering. Implied volatility continues declining, and risk-reversal skew has narrowed somewhat, signaling gradually rising market interest in upside exposure. Key events this week: - April 29: Earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, plus the FOMC interest-rate decision. - April 30: Apple earnings report, U.S. Q1 GDP data, and March PCE inflation data.