News linked to both this project and an event.
pricing on the Kalshi prediction market indicates the market currently sees only about a 50% probability of a Fed rate cut before 2027, a sharp decline from the 80-90% probability seen earlier this year. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes, the market is effectively pricing in a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, reflecting a lack of confidence in near-term monetary policy easing.
Odaily Odaily Odaily The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Tuesday sued the state of Wisconsin in an effort to uphold its regulatory authority after the state filed lawsuits against multiple prediction market platforms. In a statement, the CFTC said the lawsuit was filed in response to Wisconsin's legal actions against five CFTC-regulated prediction market operators: Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Coinbase. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that states cannot circumvent clear congressional directives, and the agency will take legal action if they interfere with the implementation of federal laws regulating financial markets. This marks the fifth such lawsuit the CFTC has initiated against a U.S. state, following previous actions against New York, Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois. Wisconsin had previously argued that prediction market contracts related to sporting events constitute illegal gambling and must obtain a state gambling license. The CFTC, jointly with the U.S. Department of Justice's Civil Division, filed a complaint in Wisconsin federal court, asserting its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction market event contracts operating as designated contract markets. The defendants include Wisconsin Governor Anthony Evers, state Attorney General Josh Kaul, and the state's gambling division.
According to Fortune magazine, as Kalshi and Polymarket accelerate coordination with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to crack down on insider trading, Robin Hanson—a founding theorist of prediction markets and economics professor at George Mason University—publicly voiced his disapproval, stating that “insider participation in trading” is precisely the core value underpinning prediction markets. Earlier, the U.S. Department of Justice charged a U.S. military servicemember with using classified intelligence to place bets on Polymarket regarding a Venezuelan raid operation, illegally profiting approximately $400,000. In response, Robin Hanson remarked: “You want them to trade. You want prices to be as accurate as possible—the market’s purpose is to aid decision-making.” Robin Hanson argues that, like all economic models, insiders will trade: informed participants buy “yes” contracts, thereby driving prices upward toward the truth. If insiders refrain from betting, the information-discovery function of prediction markets would be severely weakened, and such markets would fail to reflect real-world outcomes faster than news media or public opinion polls. Insider trading is likewise widespread in traditional financial markets, yet regulators address only a tiny fraction of cases. Prediction markets, like investigative journalism, are fundamentally mechanisms designed to accelerate information disclosure—and thus should not be subject to blanket prohibition. As a compromise, Robin Hanson proposes: any legislation banning government employees from participating in prediction market trading should, by the same logic, also prohibit them from speaking with journalists.
Odaily, John Wang, Kalshi's Head of Cryptocurrency, responded on X to the controversy surrounding insider trading in prediction markets, stating: "I believe this is a very important issue, but it is not unique to prediction markets. The stock market is essentially a prediction market for a company's future performance, and there has been a long history of exploration and iteration regarding the boundary between 'legitimate information advantages' and 'illegal use of material non-public information.' The role of regulation is to find this balance. Just like the stock market, insider trading is a complex problem that requires refined solutions, but it is not insurmountable. I also agree that when operating at scale, introducing mechanisms such as KYC and market surveillance is very necessary to help prevent insider trading. That's why we have adopted this approach at Kalshi from day one."
the CFTC has filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, aiming to prevent New York state from enforcing its gambling laws on federally regulated prediction market platforms. The CFTC argues that federal law grants it exclusive regulatory authority over such markets and is seeking a permanent injunction against New York's enforcement actions. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that registered exchanges face multiple state-level lawsuits, which undermine the CFTC's sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. Previously, New York state had sued Binance and Gemini, alleging their products violated state gambling rules, and had also requested Kalshi to cease certain sports-related contracts. Currently, 37 states and Washington D.C. have submitted amicus briefs supporting Massachusetts' enforcement against Kalshi, arguing that federal law has not legalized sports betting and has not abolished the states' historical regulatory powers.
According to Business Insider, U.S. Army Special Forces Sergeant Major Gannon Van Dyke has been charged with allegedly using classified military information to place bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket regarding the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—netting over $400,000 in illegal profits. Notably, Van Dyke had previously attempted to open an account on rival platform Kalshi but was rejected due to failure to pass identity verification and KYC checks. Polymarket stated it proactively reported the suspicious trading activity to law enforcement authorities and has fully cooperated with the investigation. This case is regarded as the first major insider-trading criminal prosecution in the prediction market space, reigniting market concerns about insider-trading risks on prediction platforms.
on April 23, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit in Dane County against Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, accusing these fintech and crypto platforms of facilitating illegal sports betting through event contracts. Josh Kaul is requesting the court to issue preliminary and permanent injunctions, declaring that the platforms' operations violate Wisconsin's gambling laws and constitute a public nuisance. The complaint states that repackaging wagers as event contracts does not change their fundamental nature, with approximately 90% of Kalshi's business coming from sports-related contracts, generating annualized revenue exceeding $1 billion. Robinhood and Coinbase are also implicated in the case, routing user orders to Kalshi's markets through distribution agreements. Regulators in Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee have also taken similar legal actions or issued cease-and-desist orders.
According to CoinDesk, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit on April 24 against Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, accusing these platforms of operating unlicensed gambling businesses under the guise of “event contracts.” The complaint cites marketing language used by the platforms themselves—for instance, Kalshi’s claim to be “the first legal sports betting platform in the U.S.,” and Polymarket’s statement that users can “bet on the outcomes of future events”—to argue that such contracts constitute wagering under Wisconsin law. The state government further noted that the platforms’ business model—charging fees per transaction—is functionally identical to casinos’ commission-based revenue structure. At the heart of this case lies a jurisdictional dispute: whether prediction market contracts fall under federal regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or are subject to individual states’ gambling laws. Similar lawsuits have already been filed by multiple states, and this conflict is expected to ultimately be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court.
Polymarket, a crypto prediction market platform, has become embroiled in an insider trading controversy due to predictive trading centered on US President Donald Trump's related policies and statements. Data shows that from April 5th to April 8th alone, markets related to the situation in Iran generated approximately 413 million predictions, involving funds exceeding $100 million.Analysts point out that Trump's highly unpredictable decision-making style has significantly boosted activity in the prediction market. Topics such as whether he will take military action against Iran or push for a ceasefire have become high-frequency trading targets. Related trading volumes surged rapidly following his social media posts.Notably, Donald Trump Jr. was revealed to hold shares in Polymarket while also serving as an advisor to another prediction platform, Kalshi, sparking external questions about potential conflicts of interest and insider trading. Industry data indicates that political predictions have become the second-largest category in prediction markets, trailing only sports. Despite the escalating controversy, the overall attitude of US regulators remains relatively lenient, driving the continuous expansion of this sector. (Fortune)
According to a disclosure by Kalshi, the prediction market platform Kalshi has fined and banned three congressional candidates from accessing the platform for five years for betting on their own election outcomes. The candidates involved include Mark Moran, Matt Klein, and Ezekiel Enriquez.Virginia State Senate candidate Mark Moran was fined $6,229 and required to return profits from related market trades; Minnesota House of Representatives candidate Matt Klein was fined $540; and Texas Republican primary candidate Ezekiel Enriquez was fined $784.Mark Moran posted on X (formerly Twitter) stating that his approximately $100 bet on Kalshi was intended to draw attention to expose potential manipulation and corruption issues on the platform. Matt Klein posted on X, explaining that he placed the bet out of curiosity and, upon learning it violated the rules, paid the fine and accepted the ban. Kalshi's legal counsel, Bobby DeNault, stated that the candidates' actions violated internal trading control rules and that penalties would be imposed regardless of the transaction amount.
Odaily News: New York State Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order on Wednesday prohibiting state government employees from using non-public information to trade in prediction markets or assisting others in profiting from it. This move aims to address growing concerns over "insider betting" in prediction markets.According to the executive order, all government officials appointed by the governor or under her jurisdiction, as well as members of public agencies, are prohibited from using any non-public information obtained in the course of their duties to seek profits or avoid losses in prediction markets or similar services. They are also barred from assisting others in such activities. The governor mentioned in the document that the current "rapid expansion of prediction markets" has drawn regulatory attention.The day before, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker also issued a similar executive order, banning state government personnel from using non-public information to participate in prediction market betting.Meanwhile, prediction market platform Kalshi disclosed that it has launched investigations into three insider trading cases involving candidates and has imposed fines and trading suspensions on the relevant individuals. One of those penalized is Mark Moran, a candidate in the Virginia State Senate Democratic primary, who was penalized for betting on his own campaign and stated he "hoped to be caught."
According to an official announcement, Kalshi—a prediction market regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)—has integrated Pyth as the settlement data source for its newly launched Commodities Hub, covering markets including gold, silver, Brent crude oil, natural gas, copper, corn, soybeans, and wheat. Meanwhile, Pyth Pro will provide Kalshi’s market makers with direct access to market data. Kalshi stated that this move aims to support continuous trading and reliable settlement of commodity-related event contracts; Pyth Pro will subsequently expand to additional asset classes, including indices, equities, and foreign exchange.
According to The Wall Street Journal, prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have both announced plans to launch perpetual futures contracts. Polymarket posted a video on X on Tuesday stating it will list perpetual futures products tied to crypto tokens, U.S. equities, and commodities; Kalshi has a similar plan. Perpetual futures are crypto-native derivatives with no fixed expiration date. It remains unclear whether Polymarket will offer these products in the U.S. market, as such products face relatively strict regulatory restrictions in the United States.
Odaily According to Bloomberg, as the U.S. Congress considers tightening regulations, the prediction market industry is intensifying its lobbying efforts in Washington to address criticism that it fuels the expansion of gambling and poses risks of potential insider trading.Leading platforms, represented by Kalshi, are joining forces with several crypto and sports betting companies involved in prediction markets to form lobbying teams. Their aim is to influence the legislative process and alleviate regulatory pressure. Industry insiders are concerned that regulatory actions targeting this multi-billion dollar industry may accelerate. (Bloomberg)
According to Cointelegraph, a legal dispute between prediction market platform Kalshi and the state of Nevada over regulatory jurisdiction concerning event contracts may ultimately be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. Kalshi argued before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit that its event contracts qualify as “swaps” subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), rather than falling under state-level gambling regulation. Previously, Nevada had restricted Kalshi from offering such contracts on the grounds that it required a gambling license. Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, stated that the Supreme Court may rule on whether sports contracts listed on designated contract markets fall within the CFTC’s exclusive regulatory authority.
According to Cointelegraph, Tarek Mansour, CEO of prediction market platform Kalshi, stated that Kalshi will launch a “Parent Portal,” allowing parents to submit identification information to verify whether their children are impersonating them to circumvent the platform’s age restrictions. Kalshi will also add selfie verification to accounts, using facial recognition technology to determine whether the user matches the registered identity. The report notes that Kalshi is currently under scrutiny at both the state and federal levels in the U.S. over sports event contracts and wagers related to military operations. Meanwhile, Kalshi has argued in court that it falls exclusively under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and related state-level lawsuits remain ongoing.
According to CoinDesk, Wall Street brokerage Bernstein released a research report stating that prediction market trading volume is expected to grow from $5.1 billion in 2025 to approximately $100 billion in 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 80%. Trading volume is projected to reach $24 billion in 2026, while Polymarket and Kalshi combined have already generated $60 billion in trading volume year-to-date. The report identifies three core drivers of this growth: increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level, blockchain infrastructure enabling global liquidity, and integration with mainstream trading platforms. Industry revenue is expected to rise from approximately $400 million in 2025 to about $10.8 billion in 2030. Distribution capability is viewed as a key competitive barrier. Robinhood has achieved an annualized revenue run-rate of $350 million from prediction markets and is advancing its exchange infrastructure development; Coinbase, meanwhile, offers nationwide access to over 1,000 contracts via the Kalshi platform. Bernstein maintains an “Outperform” rating on both companies.
Odaily News Cantor Fitzgerald pointed out in its latest report that with the rapid rise of prediction markets, Robinhood and Coinbase are poised to become major beneficiaries in this sector, leveraging their massive retail user base and mature trading infrastructure. Although leading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket remain private companies, Robinhood and Coinbase have already begun entering this market by integrating event-driven trading within their applications.Cantor noted that prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on real-world events such as elections and economic data, with prices reflecting the crowd's probability judgments. This model is similar to stock and crypto trading platforms, primarily generating revenue through trading activity fees. Among them, Robinhood's prediction market product, launched after the US election, has grown rapidly and has become one of its fastest-growing revenue streams; Coinbase is gradually opening related features to users by integrating Kalshi's infrastructure.The report believes that prediction markets not only have retail trading potential but may also play a role in institutional hedging and macro forecasting in the future. However, regulation remains the biggest uncertainty, as its legal status is still debated between being classified as a derivative or gambling. (CoinDesk)
According to U.S. News, U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi for the District of Arizona ruled to temporarily bar the state from taking criminal or civil enforcement actions against prediction market platform Kalshi under state law. Additionally, Kalshi’s scheduled arraignment on April 13 has been halted. This ruling responds to a motion previously filed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In the temporary restraining order, Judge Liburdi stated that the State of Arizona may not enforce its state gambling laws against contracts listed on markets regulated by the CFTC.
According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice jointly filed an application with a federal court on Tuesday evening seeking to block Arizona from enforcing its state gambling laws against prediction market operator Kalshi. The two agencies argue that Kalshi’s contracts—tied to real-world events such as sporting events and elections—are, in substance, financial derivatives (swaps) subject to the Commodity Exchange Act and the federal regulatory framework, rather than state-level gambling regulations. Arizona had previously brought criminal charges against Kalshi, with a trial scheduled for April 13. Courts across the country have issued conflicting rulings: the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit (New Jersey) has leaned toward supporting the federal regulatory position, while other district courts have remained open to the state’s arguments.