News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: Former US Congressman George Santos has reached a settlement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC stated that Santos engaged in manipulative trading behavior while trading a prediction contract on Kalshi regarding whether he would attend the State of the Union address in February 2026, profiting over $17,500 from the trades.According to the CFTC's Friday announcement, Santos is required to pay $35,000 as part of the settlement, but neither admitted nor denied the regulator's findings.The CFTC stated that in the two weeks leading up to the State of the Union address, Santos repeatedly made public comments about whether he would attend the event, causing significant fluctuations in the price of the event contract. For example, while holding a "Yes" position indicating he would attend, he posted on X asking what he should wear to the State of the Union. Within hours, the price of the Yes position rose, after which Santos closed his position for a profit.The CFTC also alleged that Santos subsequently continued to post updates about his travel to Washington, D.C., including flights and train rides, and profited by trading back and forth based on market reactions to his public statements. The CFTC stated that Santos's conduct was intentional, or at least reckless. He traded in an event contract whose underlying outcome he could influence, and affected the contract price through misleading public statements or omissions of information, thereby profiting from his trading positions.Santos's attorney, Joseph W. Murray, stated in Friday's announcement that the State of the Union contract was Santos's first foray into prediction market betting.
Odaily News: New York State has filed a lawsuit against Kalshi, accusing it of operating an illegal gambling business in the state. New York Attorney General Letitia James is asking the court to order Kalshi to cease operations in New York State and require the company to pay fines and compensation to users. New York State has also filed a motion for a temporary restraining order, seeking to suspend Kalshi's event contract trading in the state, and requesting the court to order Kalshi to fully refund users' funds, surrender all proceeds obtained through these products, pay penalties equal to three times its profits, and a fine of $100,000 per product. According to court documents, the requested compensatory damages could amount to at least $36 billion, with the exact figure to be determined after a full accounting.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
据美国威斯康星州东区联邦地区法院 7月 28 日裁决，法院驳回了 CFTC 要求禁止威斯康星州对 Kalshi、Coinbase、Robinhood、Polymarket及 Crypto.com 等平台的体育相关事件合约执法的初步禁令申请。法院认为，CFTC 未能证明其主张——即《商品交易法》（CEA）对"掉期"的定义涵盖体育事件合约——具有胜诉可能性，且赌博监管属于州传统警察权范畴，联邦法律并未明确表示意图取代州法。此外，法院同时驳回了 Kalshi、Crypto.com 衍生品北美公司（CDNA）的介入申请及美国博彩协会（AGA）的被告介入申请。目前，CFTC 与威斯康星州的实质性诉讼仍将继续推进。
According to The Block, 44 state attorneys general led by Ohio Attorney General Andy Wilson jointly submitted a public comment letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stating that the CFTC's proposed rules exceed the authority granted by the Commodity Exchange Act and requesting them to redraft new rules compliant with the Constitution. The letter emphasized that sports betting has historically fallen under state-level regulatory jurisdiction, and the federal government has never intervened. Meanwhile, the NFL also wrote to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, requesting to curb the expansion of sports prediction markets, arguing that the current proposed rules are insufficient to protect the integrity of events. Currently, the legal battle between states and the CFTC continues to intensify: a Minnesota court ruled to suspend the enforcement of the state's prediction market ban, allowing Kalshi and Polymarket to continue operations; however, a New York federal judge again refused to block New York State from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, and Michigan and Washington states have also issued temporary injunctions restricting Kalshi from conducting sports event contract business locally.
CME Group, the operator of the largest U.S. derivatives exchange, sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and its Chairman Mike Selig last month, opposing the regulator's approval for prediction market platform Kalshi and cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase to launch crypto perpetual contracts. Non-US perpetual contracts achieved a trading volume of $60 trillion last year. CME argues that the CFTC misclassified the relevant products and improperly applied the law, claiming that futures should have an expiration date, whereas perpetual contracts allow traders to establish leveraged positions on the future price of an asset without an expiration limit. CME also contends that the products harm its longer-dated futures business and that the CFTC failed to adequately consider the impact. The dispute between the parties intensified during the early stages of the Iran conflict, when demand rose for 24-hour crude oil perpetual contracts on offshore DeFi exchanges like Hyperliquid, as well as for on-chain prediction market trading related to the crude oil market. CME subsequently applied to accelerate the launch of 24-hour West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures trading but was blocked by the CFTC. Kalshi, after launching its first related product last month, stated that its trading volume exceeded $1 billion in less than a week. The CFTC is currently advancing the U.S. perpetual contracts market through policy statements and case-by-case reviews, rather than through new rulemaking procedures.
Odaily News Kalshi trader Caleb Davies stated that he had requested Kalshi to delay the settlement of a Spotify prediction market to allow the执法 team to review suspected artificially manipulated streaming data. The market focused on which artists would top the Spotify US Daily Chart, with a trading volume of $3.32 million. Davies stated that Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and reached the top of the Spotify US Chart on June 29. Kalshi's Head of Enforcement and Legal, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listens or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after issuing this response. Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the emergence of the disputed streaming data. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings," meaning that under the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29 instead of first. Subsequently, Spotify requested Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana stated that the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation; Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, rescinded the settlement, or announced compensation.
According to CoinDesk, U.S. District Court Judge for the District of Minnesota Katherine Menendez ruled on July 28 local time that the Minnesota state law criminalizing the operation of prediction markets likely violates the federal Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), and granted a preliminary injunction to Kalshi, Polymarket, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to suspend the enforcement of the state law. The judge held that prediction market contracts structurally fall under 'swap' products within the CFTC's regulatory scope, federal law takes precedence over state law, and the three plaintiffs are 'likely to prevail in the formal trial'. Additionally, the judge noted that failing to suspend the enforcement of the law would cause 'irreparable harm' to Kalshi and Polymarket. The preliminary injunction will remain in effect until the final judgment of the case is issued.
U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez for the District of Minnesota ruled on Monday that a recently enacted Minnesota state law banning prediction markets may conflict with the Commodity Exchange Act. She granted a preliminary injunction in favor of Kalshi, Polymarket, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC had sued the state of Minnesota earlier this year after the state passed a law classifying the operation of prediction markets within the state as a criminal offense. The three parties argued that prediction market contracts are structured as "swaps" and that the state law infringes upon the CFTC's regulatory authority over such products. In her ruling, Judge Menendez stated that the parties are likely to succeed on the merits of their claim that the federal Commodity Exchange Act preempts the state law.
Odaily reports: After perpetual futures entered the regulated US market, Wall Street institutions are still taking a wait-and-see approach. Bank of America estimates that the global annual trading volume of perpetual futures is approximately 90 trillion USD; within a week of Kalshi launching perpetual futures in June, trading volume exceeded 1 billion USD. Perpetual futures are similar to standard futures but have no expiration date, meaning traders do not need to close or roll over positions monthly or quarterly. Instead, periodic funding rates keep the contract price close to the underlying asset. On May 29, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved Kalshi to offer such contracts, and Coinbase also received approval to list regulated perpetual futures in the US. Insiders say that large financial institutions are still studying these products, with proprietary trading firms, market makers, and emerging clearing firms likely to be the first to participate. Large banks face stricter capital rules, client obligations, and reputational risks, and typically wait for years of data, clear regulatory treatment, and stable infrastructure. Perpetual futures may also be used to manage weekend risk, but market depth remains a concern. Industry insiders note that regulatory disagreements are emerging over whether certain contracts should be classified as futures or swaps, and CME has already challenged the CFTC's handling of Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual contract.
sports merchandise and betting platform Fanatics will acquire a federally regulated exchange and clearing house from BGC to launch and settle its own prediction market operations. Fanatics and BGC also plan to develop new market data products that combine prediction market activity with traditional financial market data. This deal enables Fanatics to enter the prediction market space, competing directly with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
According to Cointelegraph, Robinhood is negotiating with crypto trading platform Crypto.com to expand its prediction market business, planning to integrate yes/no event contract products provided by Crypto.com. People familiar with the matter stated that both parties are still in the discussion phase, and specific cooperation arrangements have not yet been finalized. Robinhood launched prediction market services in March 2025, initially offering related products through Kalshi to comply with regulatory requirements of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and subsequently integrated ForecastEx and Rotella. Bernstein analysts recently raised the price target from $130 to $160 due to optimism regarding Robinhood's development in the prediction market and tokenized stock sectors, and predicted that prediction market business revenue could reach $1.7 billion in 2028. However, the U.S. prediction market industry currently still faces legal disputes between state and federal regulators.
预测市场运营商 Kalshi 于 7 月 24 日向 Netflix 发出停止侵权函，指控其新纪录片《Instadocs: The Prediction Games》预告片构成诽谤，并要求在 7 月 26 日影片首映前撤下预告片并公开更正。 Kalshi 称，预告片使用了一张伪造的交易单，暗示其允许内华达州体育博彩，且违反州法院命令。该公司表示，画面中的收据日期为 2025 年 5 月 16 日，电话界面显示“crop”，并不符合其平台样式。 Netflix 否认伪造画面，表示相关交易发生在 2025 年 5 月、内华达限制生效前，场景拍摄于拉斯维加斯一场私人活动。内华达监管机构要求 Kalshi 在 8 月 12 日前完成地理围栏部署，否则需按每天 12 万美元支付罚款。
OdailyOdailyOdaily News: The Wisconsin Election Commission has stated that residents who purchase contracts related to a specific election on Kalshi or Polymarket may lose their eligibility to vote in that same election. The Commission also noted that knowingly voting without being eligible could constitute a Class I felony. The Commission unanimously approved a legal memorandum regarding prediction markets during a meeting on July 9, and issued a statewide notice on Tuesday. The restrictions apply only to the corresponding election and do not automatically affect a trader's voting eligibility in other unrelated elections. Benjamin Freeman, Head of Election Business at Kalshi, stated that the guidance is "clearly unconstitutional and unlawful," adding that the company has hundreds of thousands of users in Wisconsin alone. Robert DeNault, Head of Enforcement and Legal Counsel at Kalshi, said that election markets certified by the CFTC and offered on federally regulated exchanges are legal. A spokesperson for Polymarket stated that the company would respond to the Commission's claims through appropriate legal proceedings. Both companies argue that their products are tradable financial contracts, not gambling.
Kalshi and Polymarket processed a combined trading volume of over $44 billion in 2025. As of April 2026, the monthly trading volume on the two platforms has risen to $24 billion, surpassing the average monthly betting volume of legal sports platforms in the United States. Kalshi reported $263.5 million in fee revenue last year, with its annualized revenue exceeding $1.5 billion since then. Prediction markets operate on a binary contract exchange model, where the platform matches buyers and sellers without placing bets, holding positions, or bearing the risk of event outcomes. Its primary revenue comes from transaction fees, with additional revenue sources including data licensing, API access for institutional traders, and, in some cases, market creation fees on the platform. In the U.S. market, Kalshi is a Designated Contract Market (DCM) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Polymarket re-entered the U.S. market at the end of 2025 by acquiring the CFTC-regulated QCEX for $112 million. Some states still classify prediction market contracts as gambling, and related federal and state-level lawsuits remain ongoing. The European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) does not directly define the attributes of prediction market contracts, and classification varies among member states. If a platform uses crypto settlement and provides custody or transfer services to EU users, it must also obtain a license as a Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP).
According to Reuters, prediction market platform Polymarket announced it will launch a legal challenge against the decision by the French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) to block its website. ANJ unilaterally blocked access to Polymarket in France last week, citing "potential for significant gambling losses for users" and "risk of manipulation of platform bets." Polymarket expressed disappointment over this and stated it would seek relief through French legal procedures. Previously, the Spanish government temporarily banned Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi in May this year, and US derivatives regulators also released a new regulatory draft targeting the prediction market industry in June, indicating a clear trend of tightening global regulation.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has launched the Midterms Hub to display real-time market odds for U.S. Senate and House races. The page integrates real-time trading prices, polling averages, Federal Election Commission fundraising data, and curated news. Kalshi is also seeking regulatory approval to expand perpetual futures trading beyond cryptocurrencies and is pursuing new funding at a valuation of approximately $40 billion.
According to PR Newswire, institutional digital asset infrastructure provider Talos announced the completion of its integration with CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi, enabling institutional clients to directly trade Kalshi event contracts and crypto perpetual contracts via the existing Talos interface without requiring additional access. Talos has launched two core features for this: first, an algorithmic trading suite for market makers and hedge funds (including strategies such as TWAP and POV), supporting spread trading between perpetual contracts and between perpetual contracts and spot; second, a block OTC trading interface based on the RFQ platform, connecting the OTC liquidity provider network.
: The Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development, under the U.S. House Committee on Agriculture, held a hearing on how the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) should regulate prediction markets. Carl Kennedy, a partner at Katten Muchin Rosenman, stated that the CFTC may lack sufficient staffing to adequately handle regulation and enforcement for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Kennedy believes that the CLARITY Act, currently under consideration in the Senate, could grant the CFTC greater authority, both for digital assets and for addressing the growth of prediction markets. He stated that if the CFTC is to handle new asset classes such as cash markets and crypto assets, it will require more resources. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, since being confirmed by the Senate in December, has argued that the agency has exclusive jurisdiction over related companies and believes that event contracts on these platforms fall under the CFTC's jurisdiction as swaps. Several U.S. states have sued Kalshi and Polymarket over sports betting-related disputes, and these cases could ultimately reach the U.S. Supreme Court.