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CZ: Bitcoin May Surpass Gold in the Next Bull Run, Current Market Cap Gap Approximately 10x
Odaily News: Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stated at Bitcoin Asia that Bitcoin may surpass gold in the next bull market, with the current market cap gap between the two standing at approximately 10x. Ricardo Salinas Pliego estimates that if Bitcoin were to reach gold's total market cap, its price could reach approximately $1.86 million.He noted that if Bitcoin becomes a strategic reserve asset for nations, its importance could surpass that of gold; however, central banks and governments have already established systems for valuing, storing, and managing gold, and transitioning to Bitcoin will take time.Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold has risen from 0.21 in March to approximately 0.57, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index has fallen from 0.57 to 0.22. Other estimates indicate that its correlation with gold stands at approximately 0.59, the highest level since 2020. (Bitcoin.com News)
Coinbase Institutional Maintains Neutral Outlook on Crypto Market for Q3 2026
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released a market report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the cryptocurrency market for the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, the total market capitalization of the crypto market (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 12%, while stablecoin supply reached an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, characterized by compressed valuations, near-multi-year lows in recent active supply, and the proportion of supply in profit breaking below historical statistical lower bounds—historically corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones. However, the macro liquidity environment remains tight, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance under Kevin Warsh's leadership, a strong U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the pace of outflows has begun to slow), thus overall caution is advised.
Glassnode Co-founder: Bitcoin May Have Entered Bottom Range, High-Probability Bottom Between $46,000-$54,000
Odaily News, Glassnode co-founder Rafael posted on platform X to analyze the recent trend of Bitcoin prices. He pointed out that Bitcoin is currently trading in the $62,000 range, down nearly 50% from its all-time high, with a 24% decline in the past month. The price has now broken through the upper range of his pricing framework and entered a valuation cluster zone where bottoms have historically formed.Rafael further indicated that the market bottom cannot be confirmed in advance and can only be identified through probabilistic ranges and key price levels. Bitcoin has fallen below the breakeven line for median holders for the first time since December 2022, and is currently within a broader support zone: the median realized price is approximately $64,100, and the 200-week moving average is around $61,700. At this stage, the high-probability bottom range could be between $46,000-$54,000, while the $35,000-$40,000 area below that represents a rare "sell-off tail." Notably, the magnitude of cycle corrections is gradually diminishing: previous cycles saw drops of roughly 85%, 84%, and 77% from the peak, while this cycle has only declined about 50%. This suggests the high-probability bottom is more likely within the upper range, though extreme sell-offs cannot be ruled out.
Europol: Crypto Wallets Are the Primary Exposure Point for Quantum Attacks
Odaily reports: Europol released two reports on Wednesday, urging organizations, policymakers, and the cryptocurrency industry to immediately prepare for the threat of quantum computing. Its European Cybercrime Centre noted that cryptocurrency wallet keys are the primary exposure point for quantum attacks, while the hash functions used to secure blockchains currently remain largely quantum-resistant.The reports state that a sufficiently capable quantum computer could derive private keys from exposed public keys, enabling attackers to transfer assets without authorization. Wallets whose public keys have already been exposed on-chain cannot be protected retroactively; holders need to migrate their assets to new wallets before an attack occurs.Glassnode estimated in May that 6.04 million BTC, representing 30.2% of the issued supply, have exposed public keys. The reports note that NIST-standardized post-quantum signatures are 10 to 120 times larger than the ECDSA signatures currently used by Bitcoin, and migrating all Bitcoin unspent transaction outputs would require at least 76 cumulative days of downtime.A second report published by Europol points out that commonly used protocols such as TLS, SSH, and OpenPGP face "harvest now, decrypt later" risks, but there is currently no clear evidence that this approach has been exploited at scale. The report argues that for payments, immediate interception within the brief window before transaction confirmation poses a more direct quantum risk than post-hoc decryption. (Decrypt)
Glassnode: Bitcoin Falls Below Realized Price at $76,700
According to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode (@glassnode), Bitcoin’s price fell to approximately $76,000, breaking below the consolidation range maintained since late August and dropping roughly 1% below the “Realized Price” of $76,700. Despite multiple headwinds including the failure of the Senate’s CLARITY Act vote, sharp declines in altcoins, and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, the pullback has remained moderate. On-chain capital inflows turned negative for the first time on September 15 following 27 consecutive days of growth; U.S. spot ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of approximately $334 million from September 8 to 14; the total stablecoin market cap stands at roughly $301 billion, down about 4% from its April peak with recent growth stalling; and publicly traded companies have net-purchased only about 5,900 BTC over the past three months, far below the 89,000 BTC bought in July 2025, with an average corporate cost basis of approximately $80,500 leaving them currently underwater. The options market shifted to bearish sentiment within hours of the voting results being announced. Max pain for the September 25 expirations sits at $72,000, with heavy call option concentration capping upside near $85,000. The order book shows thin bid liquidity below $68,000; should this range break decisively, subsequent key support levels would be the short-term holder cost basis at $71,300 and the on-chain support zone between $62,000 and $65,000.
Glassnode: Bitcoin Spot Liquidity Weakness Coupled with ETF Outflows, Slowing Outflow Pace Signals Stabilization
Glassnode pointed out in its latest market report that although Bitcoin has rebounded slightly after retreating from the $65,000 zone last week, it remains clearly range-bound overall. Spot trading volume and on-chain transaction throughput continue to shrink, with market liquidity and participation willingness at low levels. The derivatives market also shows caution, with leverage expanding moderately, but aggressive taker activity in perpetual contracts continues to lean toward the sell side, reflecting more aggressive distribution behavior. Funding rates remain positive, indicating lingering long-side inclination, while the options market continues to price downside protection at a premium above actual volatility levels.Institutional demand has simultaneously weakened, with declining spot ETF volumes compounded by net outflows. Institutional positions are near their cost basis, limiting unrealized profit potential for regulated investors and causing a temporary pause in accumulation momentum. On-chain profitability is under pressure, with a large portion of supply in loss and realized losses consistently exceeding profit-taking.The report also noted that the broader pace of capital outflows has begun to slow, which could be an early signal that selling pressure is stabilizing. The overall market remains caught between short-term selling pressure and relatively resilient long-term holdings. Weak spot liquidity, deteriorating institutional flows, and elevated loss realization collectively point to a continuation of the consolidation pattern, while the slowing outflow pace suggests the market may be approaching a more balanced state before its next directional move.
Bitcoin Volatility Hits New Cycle Low, Analysts Warn "Low Volatility Does Not Equal Low Risk"
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has fallen to the 36% long-term support bottom, with prices trading in a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, warned that in a low-volatility environment, declining trading costs actually attract traders to establish large-scale directional bets and hedge positions. Once the market breaks through key levels, market makers' passive hedging will accelerate price volatility, leading to a mean-reverting rebound in volatility. Regarding market sentiment, Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, pointed out that current demand for put options has significantly weakened, but call option buying is also absent—Glassnode describes this as "no one is paying for upside, and no one is paying for downside," believing this is typically a signal that the market is approaching a cycle bottom. The divergence in price trends between DOGE and BTC also confirms the continued absence of speculative sentiment. Howard stated that the next significant catalyst could be institutional ETF fund inflows driven by positive regulatory developments such as the Clarity Act, while a breakdown in Strait of Hormuz negotiations and inflation shocks constitute major downside risks.
Analysis: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders' Holdings Hit All-Time High, Potentially Signaling an Earlier Cycle Bottom
Odaily News According to Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, the holdings of Bitcoin long-term holders have risen to a record high, potentially indicating that the bottom of this crypto market cycle could emerge earlier than in the past. Data from on-chain analytics platform Glassnode shows that long-term holders (those holding coins for at least 155 days) currently possess approximately 14.7 million BTC, a historic high, suggesting that seasoned investors are continuing to "hold" their coins, reflecting strong market confidence. The on-chain data also reveals that since November 2025, the supply held by long-term holders has grown by about 14%, indicating the market has re-entered an accumulation phase following a period of significant liquidation.Cory Klippsten pointed out that, in historical cycles, this level of holdings typically corresponds to a cyclical bottom zone, reflecting long-term capital's firm expectations for Bitcoin's future value. He believes this could mean the bottom for the current cycle will arrive earlier than the historical average pace.However, this view contrasts with some market predictions. For example, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lebit Mining Pool, suggests the Bitcoin cycle bottom could appear between October and December 2026, and may be influenced by the market Net Asset Value (mNAV) cycle. Furthermore, market sentiment is also affected by the progress of US crypto regulation. Grayscale noted that the passage of the "CLARITY Act" remains uncertain; any legislative delays could prolong institutional deleveraging, creating additional downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. (Cointelegraph)
Analysis: Bitcoin Stalled at Key Resistance, ETF Outflows and Fed Divergence Amplify Market Caution
Bitcoin remained near $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, market attention quickly shifted to internal policy divergence and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more focused on policy uncertainty stemming from internal "divisions" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself. This is particularly true against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential expectation of Kevin Warsh succeeding him, creating a lack of clear policy transition.Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support lying between $65,000 and $70,000. While selling pressure has eased, demand remains insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout.On the macro front, the Fed has shown rare, severe internal disagreements, interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty over the inflation path. Analysts from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares point out that the expectation of "higher rates for longer" is suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.Regarding capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million over the same period. Although individual products still saw inflows, the overall trend indicates cooling institutional demand.Meanwhile, CME open interest and ETF assets under management have stabilized but have yet to show strong signals of capital return. In the derivatives market, short positions in perpetual contracts have reached an all-time high, suggesting a potential squeeze if sentiment improves. However, the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure.Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between an improving support structure and weak demand. Sustained ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppress its ability to break through the key resistance range. (The Block)
Glassnode: About 4 Million BTC Were Purchased Above $85,000, Most Bought in 2025
Odaily reports: On-chain analytics firm Glassnode says long-term holders hold roughly 4 million BTC with a cost basis between $85,000 and $118,000, most of which was purchased in 2025. At Bitcoin's current price, these holdings are worth approximately $326 billion, and holders are currently facing losses.Glassnode defines long-term holders as addresses holding coins for more than 155 days, and notes that the $84,000–$85,000 range has pushed Bitcoin back four times this year; since January, Bitcoin has closed above that range on only 5 days. Glassnode says that if prices recover to the relevant cost basis range, some holders may choose to sell to break even.U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings have an average cost basis of about $81,500–$82,000. Glassnode says ETF holders' average unrealized loss as of Monday was about $2.63 billion; the estimate only tracks fund flows and does not include the purchase costs of secondary-market buyers. (Decrypt)
Glassnode: Bitcoin Selling Pressure Continues to Ease, Fed Decision May Trigger the Next Rally
Glassnode's latest report indicates Bitcoin's one-month realized volatility has dropped to approximately 25%, falling back to summer 2023 levels; since August, the realized losses triggered by each round of decline have continued to narrow, suggesting that selling pressure has eased somewhat. Glassnode believes that Bitcoin is currently in a range-bound state characterized by weak demand and limited selling pressure, with the market focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 28. If the daily close reclaims the $85,000 level, it could serve as an initial signal for a further rebound; if it breaks below the active investors' average cost of approximately $77,900, attention should be paid to short-term holder cost support near $75,800.Market data shows that Bitcoin has fallen back below the $84,000–$85,000 range, which has capped price gains four times this year. Inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have cooled notably, with net inflows of only about $67 million over the past two weeks; major buy-order support on Binance's spot order book has also shifted down to the $78,000–$79,000 range, amounting to approximately $42 million.
Glassnode: Recent buyers have exited the strong distribution zone, with the share of profitable short-term holder supply dropping to around 70%.
According to Glassnode, recent BTC buyers have exited the strong distribution zone. In late September, nearly all short-term holder supply was in profit, but this proportion has now dropped to approximately 70%. For buyers expecting the upward trend to continue, the current entry timing is significantly better than it was a month ago.
QCP: BTC Falls Below $80,000, This Week’s Tech Earnings and Fed Decision May Determine the Direction
According to QCP Capital market analysis reports, BTC fell below $80,000 over the weekend and is currently trading at the lower boundary of its recent range. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and ETF fund outflows later last week triggered leveraged long liquidations. QCP noted that the key variables this week are the FOMC meeting on Oct. 27-28 and earnings reports from major tech companies: Microsoft and Alphabet will report on Oct. 28, while Amazon will report on Oct. 29. Last week, Meta dropped 7% after raising its capital expenditure guidance, and the Nasdaq posted its worst single-day performance since June. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October and an approximately 84% probability in December. There will be no dot plot released with this meeting, and the market will focus on Fed Chair Walsh's press conference. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.96%. On the technical side, BTC support sits at $78,000, with resistance at $86,000 and further levels between $88,000 and $90,000. Glassnode data indicates that the cost basis for ETF holders and corporate treasuries ranges from $80,000 to $81,500. ETH support is at $2,150, with resistance at $2,500. The ETH/BTC ratio has fallen to approximately 0.029, and ETH ETFs recorded net outflows for the fourth consecutive week, totaling $220.7 million. Q
Sellers capitulate again, Glassnode says BTC sell-off above $80K may mark a local bottom
Glassnode posted on X that seller capitulation appeared once again during yesterday's BTC decline. Each previous wave of loss-driven selling occurred at local bottoms, in early August, mid-August, and mid-September respectively. Since the September high, profit-taking has slowed. If this pattern holds, yesterday's sell-off just above $80,000 would mark a local bottom.
Dragonfly Partner Questions 'Bunker Mode': Migrating Addresses Cannot Solve the Risk of AI Cracking Cryptographic Signatures
Odaily News: Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi stated that the "bunker mode" proposed by Ethereum researcher Justin Drake to address the risk of AI cracking cryptographic signatures amounts to "cryptographic doomerism," and argued that migrating tokens to new addresses is not a real solution.Qureshi said that "bunker mode" can only protect assets that users have not yet transferred out of new addresses. If tokens in other addresses are attacked and heavily sold off, those assets could still lose value. He suggested that blockchain networks adopt a "Cryptographic Recovery Mode," using hash-based backup signature schemes that allow users to bind recovery mechanisms in advance, so that validators can assist in recovering assets after cryptographic signatures are cracked.Previously, Ethereum researcher Justin Drake warned that with the rapid improvement of AI mathematical capabilities, the ECDSA signature algorithm protecting crypto wallets could face the risk of being cracked within "months rather than years," and advised users to gradually migrate funds to new wallets that have not exposed public keys. Glassnode data shows that approximately 6.26 million BTC are currently held in addresses with potential risk. (Cointelegraph)
Dragonfly Partner Questions 'Bunker Mode': Migrating Addresses Cannot Solve the Risk of AI Cracking Cryptographic Signatures
Odaily News: Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi stated that the "bunker mode" proposed by Ethereum researcher Justin Drake to address the risk of AI cracking cryptographic signatures amounts to "cryptographic doomerism," and argued that migrating tokens to new addresses is not a real solution.Qureshi said that "bunker mode" can only protect assets that users have not yet transferred out of new addresses. If tokens in other addresses are attacked and heavily sold off, those assets could still lose value. He suggested that blockchain networks adopt a "Cryptographic Recovery Mode," using hash-based backup signature schemes that allow users to bind recovery mechanisms in advance, so that validators can assist in recovering assets after cryptographic signatures are cracked.Previously, Ethereum researcher Justin Drake warned that with the rapid improvement of AI mathematical capabilities, the ECDSA signature algorithm protecting crypto wallets could face the risk of being cracked within "months rather than years," and advised users to gradually migrate funds to new wallets that have not exposed public keys. Glassnode data shows that approximately 6.26 million BTC are currently held in addresses with potential risk. (Cointelegraph)
Europol: Crypto Wallets Are the Primary Exposure Point for Quantum Attacks
Odaily reports: Europol released two reports on Wednesday, urging organizations, policymakers, and the cryptocurrency industry to immediately prepare for the threat of quantum computing. Its European Cybercrime Centre noted that cryptocurrency wallet keys are the primary exposure point for quantum attacks, while the hash functions used to secure blockchains currently remain largely quantum-resistant.The reports state that a sufficiently capable quantum computer could derive private keys from exposed public keys, enabling attackers to transfer assets without authorization. Wallets whose public keys have already been exposed on-chain cannot be protected retroactively; holders need to migrate their assets to new wallets before an attack occurs.Glassnode estimated in May that 6.04 million BTC, representing 30.2% of the issued supply, have exposed public keys. The reports note that NIST-standardized post-quantum signatures are 10 to 120 times larger than the ECDSA signatures currently used by Bitcoin, and migrating all Bitcoin unspent transaction outputs would require at least 76 cumulative days of downtime.A second report published by Europol points out that commonly used protocols such as TLS, SSH, and OpenPGP face "harvest now, decrypt later" risks, but there is currently no clear evidence that this approach has been exploited at scale. The report argues that for payments, immediate interception within the brief window before transaction confirmation poses a more direct quantum risk than post-hoc decryption. (Decrypt)
AI Lowers Quantum Attack Costs, Bitcoin's Post-Quantum Migration Window Narrows
According to Cryptopolitan, over 100 researchers used AI coding agents to reduce the quantum attack resource score for Bitcoin's secp256k1 elliptic curve point addition subroutine by 86.1% (from 10.75 billion to 1.496 billion). This optimization only targeted a single step within Shor's algorithm and did not crack any private keys or transfer funds; a full-scale attack still requires fault-tolerant quantum hardware that does not yet exist. However, each efficiency gain is compressing the time window for blockchains to complete their post-quantum migration. According to Glassnode data, approximately 6.04 million BTC (30.2% of the circulating supply) currently faces potential quantum risk due to publicly exposed on-chain public keys. Ethereum plans to achieve full quantum resistance before December 2029, while the Bitcoin community faces greater governance challenges, including how to handle approximately 1.7 million dormant coins held in P2PK addresses suspected to belong to Satoshi, which remains unresolved.
Glassnode: Bitcoin Spot Liquidity Weakness Coupled with ETF Outflows, Slowing Outflow Pace Signals Stabilization
Glassnode pointed out in its latest market report that although Bitcoin has rebounded slightly after retreating from the $65,000 zone last week, it remains clearly range-bound overall. Spot trading volume and on-chain transaction throughput continue to shrink, with market liquidity and participation willingness at low levels. The derivatives market also shows caution, with leverage expanding moderately, but aggressive taker activity in perpetual contracts continues to lean toward the sell side, reflecting more aggressive distribution behavior. Funding rates remain positive, indicating lingering long-side inclination, while the options market continues to price downside protection at a premium above actual volatility levels.Institutional demand has simultaneously weakened, with declining spot ETF volumes compounded by net outflows. Institutional positions are near their cost basis, limiting unrealized profit potential for regulated investors and causing a temporary pause in accumulation momentum. On-chain profitability is under pressure, with a large portion of supply in loss and realized losses consistently exceeding profit-taking.The report also noted that the broader pace of capital outflows has begun to slow, which could be an early signal that selling pressure is stabilizing. The overall market remains caught between short-term selling pressure and relatively resilient long-term holdings. Weak spot liquidity, deteriorating institutional flows, and elevated loss realization collectively point to a continuation of the consolidation pattern, while the slowing outflow pace suggests the market may be approaching a more balanced state before its next directional move.
Europol: Crypto Wallets Are the Primary Exposure Point for Quantum Attacks
Odaily reports: Europol released two reports on Wednesday, urging organizations, policymakers, and the cryptocurrency industry to immediately prepare for the threat of quantum computing. Its European Cybercrime Centre noted that cryptocurrency wallet keys are the primary exposure point for quantum attacks, while the hash functions used to secure blockchains currently remain largely quantum-resistant.The reports state that a sufficiently capable quantum computer could derive private keys from exposed public keys, enabling attackers to transfer assets without authorization. Wallets whose public keys have already been exposed on-chain cannot be protected retroactively; holders need to migrate their assets to new wallets before an attack occurs.Glassnode estimated in May that 6.04 million BTC, representing 30.2% of the issued supply, have exposed public keys. The reports note that NIST-standardized post-quantum signatures are 10 to 120 times larger than the ECDSA signatures currently used by Bitcoin, and migrating all Bitcoin unspent transaction outputs would require at least 76 cumulative days of downtime.A second report published by Europol points out that commonly used protocols such as TLS, SSH, and OpenPGP face "harvest now, decrypt later" risks, but there is currently no clear evidence that this approach has been exploited at scale. The report argues that for payments, immediate interception within the brief window before transaction confirmation poses a more direct quantum risk than post-hoc decryption. (Decrypt)
Glassnode: Gate Ranks Top 3 Globally in BTC Spot Trading Volume, Leading in Both Two-Year Ranking Climb and Market Share Growth
Odaily News — According to Glassnode's latest "The Week On-chain - Escape Velocity" report, among the exchanges tracked by Glassnode, Gate has climbed 4 positions in BTC spot trading volume rankings over the past two years, marking the largest gain on the list and securing the third spot globally. During the same period, Gate's share of BTC spot trading volume within the tracked scope surged from 2.0% to 9.1%, a net increase of 7.1 percentage points — the largest growth among all exchanges.The report notes that Gate's rise is both sustained and long-lasting. Over the past 24 months, Gate has held a top-three position in BTC spot trading volume for 9 months, demonstrating continuously strengthening market competitiveness. As the exchange leading all platforms in both ranking improvement and market share growth, Gate's trading activity and market participation in the BTC spot market continue to expand.Glassnode also points out that the 24-hour spot trading volume across all exchanges has rebounded 121% from its August trough, with returning capital flowing to multiple trading platforms. Against the backdrop of an overall recovery in market activity, Gate's simultaneous gains in market share and global ranking stand out notably, fully demonstrating its growing momentum and expanding industry influence in the BTC spot market.
Glassnode Report: Bitcoin Derivatives Options Approach 50%, Bybit's BTC Options Share Rises to 28%
According to the joint report released by Glassnode and Bybit on the current state of the crypto derivatives market, the proportion of options notional open interest in the native Bitcoin derivatives market has risen from approximately 25% to nearly 50%. At the same time, term futures continue to shift toward perpetual contracts. Report data shows that Bybit’s share of Bitcoin options trading volume among the four tracked exchanges has increased from under 10% to 28%, nearly tripling. Bybit’s options market size has also grown from $529 million in its first month online to $2.33 billion, increasing more than fourfold. For Ethereum options, Bybit recorded the highest trading volume among the four tracked exchanges, maintaining its lead for 143 consecutive days. Over the past 90 days, Ethereum accounted for approximately one-third of Bybit’s total options trading volume. In tokenized gold derivatives, Bybit’s tokenized gold perpetual contract market, measured in ounces, has remained the largest among tracked crypto exchanges for 476 consecutive days; regarding gold options, Bybit accounts for 97.1% of the open interest across tracked exchanges. Frederik Theissen, Head of Research at Glassnode, stated that term futures trading volume has decreased by approximately 97% compared to 2021, as market leverage gradually shifts to perpetual contracts while risk pricing increasingly moves toward options. Sean Ballard, Head of Derivatives and Institutional Business at Bybit, stated that traders are increasingly
Coinbase Institutional Maintains Neutral Outlook on Crypto Market for Q3 2026
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released a market report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the cryptocurrency market for the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, the total market capitalization of the crypto market (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 12%, while stablecoin supply reached an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, characterized by compressed valuations, near-multi-year lows in recent active supply, and the proportion of supply in profit breaking below historical statistical lower bounds—historically corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones. However, the macro liquidity environment remains tight, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance under Kevin Warsh's leadership, a strong U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the pace of outflows has begun to slow), thus overall caution is advised.
Glassnode：比特币期权市场防御情绪降温，短期看跌对冲需求回落
Glassnode 发布比特币期权市场数据指出，比特币期权市场的防御性情绪正在降温。未平仓合约看跌/看涨比率已由 6 月下旬的约 0.76 快速降至约 0.52，显示看涨期权未平仓占比上升，随着比特币价格稳定在约 6.7 万美元附近，防御性仓位有所回撤。
Glassnode: Bitcoin Stabilizes Around $60,000, Market Sentiment Heavily Defensive
on-chain data analytics firm Glassnode has released its latest weekly market summary, noting that Bitcoin has briefly stabilized around the $60,000 level. However, the market is characterized by strong defensive traits and a lack of bullish confidence.The spot market is range-bound, with trading activity slightly increasing. Yet, capital continues to flow out on a net basis, and market liquidity is primarily driven by distribution, with no large-scale accumulation observed. The derivatives market is persistently deleveraging, with traders prioritizing downside hedging protection and showing low willingness for directional long positions. Funding rates remain low, indicating a generally weak risk appetite. Institutional pressure is significant, as US spot Bitcoin ETFs are collectively in a state of unrealized losses, with continued net capital outflows and low willingness among institutions to increase positions.Glassnode states that the current market is undergoing a period of structural adjustment and capital contraction. The $60,000 level provides only temporary support, and there are no signs of recovery in spot orders, derivatives positions, or institutional capital. For a sustained upward trend to emerge, a significant restoration of confidence among buyers is required.
Related news
Glassnode: About 4 Million BTC Were Purchased Above $85,000, Most Bought in 2025
Odaily reports: On-chain analytics firm Glassnode says long-term holders hold roughly 4 million BTC with a cost basis between $85,000 and $118,000, most of which was purchased in 2025. At Bitcoin's current price, these holdings are worth approximately $326 billion, and holders are currently facing losses.Glassnode defines long-term holders as addresses holding coins for more than 155 days, and notes that the $84,000–$85,000 range has pushed Bitcoin back four times this year; since January, Bitcoin has closed above that range on only 5 days. Glassnode says that if prices recover to the relevant cost basis range, some holders may choose to sell to break even.U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings have an average cost basis of about $81,500–$82,000. Glassnode says ETF holders' average unrealized loss as of Monday was about $2.63 billion; the estimate only tracks fund flows and does not include the purchase costs of secondary-market buyers. (Decrypt)
Glassnode: Bitcoin Selling Pressure Continues to Ease, Fed Decision May Trigger the Next Rally
Glassnode's latest report indicates Bitcoin's one-month realized volatility has dropped to approximately 25%, falling back to summer 2023 levels; since August, the realized losses triggered by each round of decline have continued to narrow, suggesting that selling pressure has eased somewhat. Glassnode believes that Bitcoin is currently in a range-bound state characterized by weak demand and limited selling pressure, with the market focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 28. If the daily close reclaims the $85,000 level, it could serve as an initial signal for a further rebound; if it breaks below the active investors' average cost of approximately $77,900, attention should be paid to short-term holder cost support near $75,800.Market data shows that Bitcoin has fallen back below the $84,000–$85,000 range, which has capped price gains four times this year. Inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have cooled notably, with net inflows of only about $67 million over the past two weeks; major buy-order support on Binance's spot order book has also shifted down to the $78,000–$79,000 range, amounting to approximately $42 million.
Glassnode: Recent buyers have exited the strong distribution zone, with the share of profitable short-term holder supply dropping to around 70%.
According to Glassnode, recent BTC buyers have exited the strong distribution zone. In late September, nearly all short-term holder supply was in profit, but this proportion has now dropped to approximately 70%. For buyers expecting the upward trend to continue, the current entry timing is significantly better than it was a month ago.
QCP: BTC Falls Below $80,000, This Week’s Tech Earnings and Fed Decision May Determine the Direction
According to QCP Capital market analysis reports, BTC fell below $80,000 over the weekend and is currently trading at the lower boundary of its recent range. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and ETF fund outflows later last week triggered leveraged long liquidations. QCP noted that the key variables this week are the FOMC meeting on Oct. 27-28 and earnings reports from major tech companies: Microsoft and Alphabet will report on Oct. 28, while Amazon will report on Oct. 29. Last week, Meta dropped 7% after raising its capital expenditure guidance, and the Nasdaq posted its worst single-day performance since June. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October and an approximately 84% probability in December. There will be no dot plot released with this meeting, and the market will focus on Fed Chair Walsh's press conference. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.96%. On the technical side, BTC support sits at $78,000, with resistance at $86,000 and further levels between $88,000 and $90,000. Glassnode data indicates that the cost basis for ETF holders and corporate treasuries ranges from $80,000 to $81,500. ETH support is at $2,150, with resistance at $2,500. The ETH/BTC ratio has fallen to approximately 0.029, and ETH ETFs recorded net outflows for the fourth consecutive week, totaling $220.7 million. Q
Glassnode: Over 40% of Large-Cap Altcoins' Leverage Ratios Approach Yearly Highs, Mid-Cap Altcoin Leverage Share Hits New High for the Year
According to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode (@glassnode), leverage levels in the altcoin market remain elevated. Since leverage rates peaked earlier this month, altcoin prices have already pulled back, but leverage ratios for over 40% of large-cap altcoins remain near their highest levels of the year, while the proportion of mid-cap altcoins in a high-leverage state has risen to an annual peak. Glassnode points out that if prices decline further, a significant number of long positions across the market may face liquidation risk.
Sellers capitulate again, Glassnode says BTC sell-off above $80K may mark a local bottom
Glassnode posted on X that seller capitulation appeared once again during yesterday's BTC decline. Each previous wave of loss-driven selling occurred at local bottoms, in early August, mid-August, and mid-September respectively. Since the September high, profit-taking has slowed. If this pattern holds, yesterday's sell-off just above $80,000 would mark a local bottom.