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Coinbase Institutional Maintains Neutral Outlook on Crypto Market for Q3 2026
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released a market report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the cryptocurrency market for the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, the total market capitalization of the crypto market (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 12%, while stablecoin supply reached an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, characterized by compressed valuations, near-multi-year lows in recent active supply, and the proportion of supply in profit breaking below historical statistical lower bounds—historically corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones. However, the macro liquidity environment remains tight, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance under Kevin Warsh's leadership, a strong U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the pace of outflows has begun to slow), thus overall caution is advised.
Glassnode Co-founder: Bitcoin May Have Entered Bottom Range, High-Probability Bottom Between $46,000-$54,000
Odaily News, Glassnode co-founder Rafael posted on platform X to analyze the recent trend of Bitcoin prices. He pointed out that Bitcoin is currently trading in the $62,000 range, down nearly 50% from its all-time high, with a 24% decline in the past month. The price has now broken through the upper range of his pricing framework and entered a valuation cluster zone where bottoms have historically formed.Rafael further indicated that the market bottom cannot be confirmed in advance and can only be identified through probabilistic ranges and key price levels. Bitcoin has fallen below the breakeven line for median holders for the first time since December 2022, and is currently within a broader support zone: the median realized price is approximately $64,100, and the 200-week moving average is around $61,700. At this stage, the high-probability bottom range could be between $46,000-$54,000, while the $35,000-$40,000 area below that represents a rare "sell-off tail." Notably, the magnitude of cycle corrections is gradually diminishing: previous cycles saw drops of roughly 85%, 84%, and 77% from the peak, while this cycle has only declined about 50%. This suggests the high-probability bottom is more likely within the upper range, though extreme sell-offs cannot be ruled out.
Analysis: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders' Holdings Hit All-Time High, Potentially Signaling an Earlier Cycle Bottom
Odaily News According to Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, the holdings of Bitcoin long-term holders have risen to a record high, potentially indicating that the bottom of this crypto market cycle could emerge earlier than in the past. Data from on-chain analytics platform Glassnode shows that long-term holders (those holding coins for at least 155 days) currently possess approximately 14.7 million BTC, a historic high, suggesting that seasoned investors are continuing to "hold" their coins, reflecting strong market confidence. The on-chain data also reveals that since November 2025, the supply held by long-term holders has grown by about 14%, indicating the market has re-entered an accumulation phase following a period of significant liquidation.Cory Klippsten pointed out that, in historical cycles, this level of holdings typically corresponds to a cyclical bottom zone, reflecting long-term capital's firm expectations for Bitcoin's future value. He believes this could mean the bottom for the current cycle will arrive earlier than the historical average pace.However, this view contrasts with some market predictions. For example, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lebit Mining Pool, suggests the Bitcoin cycle bottom could appear between October and December 2026, and may be influenced by the market Net Asset Value (mNAV) cycle. Furthermore, market sentiment is also affected by the progress of US crypto regulation. Grayscale noted that the passage of the "CLARITY Act" remains uncertain; any legislative delays could prolong institutional deleveraging, creating additional downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. (Cointelegraph)
Analysis: Bitcoin Stalled at Key Resistance, ETF Outflows and Fed Divergence Amplify Market Caution
Bitcoin remained near $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, market attention quickly shifted to internal policy divergence and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more focused on policy uncertainty stemming from internal "divisions" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself. This is particularly true against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential expectation of Kevin Warsh succeeding him, creating a lack of clear policy transition.Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support lying between $65,000 and $70,000. While selling pressure has eased, demand remains insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout.On the macro front, the Fed has shown rare, severe internal disagreements, interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty over the inflation path. Analysts from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares point out that the expectation of "higher rates for longer" is suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.Regarding capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million over the same period. Although individual products still saw inflows, the overall trend indicates cooling institutional demand.Meanwhile, CME open interest and ETF assets under management have stabilized but have yet to show strong signals of capital return. In the derivatives market, short positions in perpetual contracts have reached an all-time high, suggesting a potential squeeze if sentiment improves. However, the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure.Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between an improving support structure and weak demand. Sustained ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppress its ability to break through the key resistance range. (The Block)
Analysis: This BTC rebound is driven by “liquidity” rather than a fundamental strengthening of the trend.
According to The Block, Bitcoin rose approximately 6% this week, briefly reaching $76,300—the highest level in nearly two months—yet the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains at 21 (“Extreme Fear”). Multiple institutional analysts characterize this rally as “liquidity-driven” rather than a structural strengthening. Glassnode notes that while spot demand and ETF inflows have improved, the recovery lacks depth, institutional participation remains cautious, and options market positioning continues to favor downside protection. Bitfinex attributes this price increase primarily to concentrated buying by “Strategists” (who purchased 13,927 BTC last week), rather than an organic rebound in demand. Analysts broadly view $75,000 as a critical support level; if structural buying wanes and this level fails to hold, prices could retreat to the $70,000–$71,000 range. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory and the June FOMC meeting are seen as the next key risk catalysts.
Coinbase Institutional Maintains Neutral Outlook on Crypto Market for Q3 2026
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released a market report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the cryptocurrency market for the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, the total market capitalization of the crypto market (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 12%, while stablecoin supply reached an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, characterized by compressed valuations, near-multi-year lows in recent active supply, and the proportion of supply in profit breaking below historical statistical lower bounds—historically corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones. However, the macro liquidity environment remains tight, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance under Kevin Warsh's leadership, a strong U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the pace of outflows has begun to slow), thus overall caution is advised.
Bitcoin falls to around $63,000, with long-term holders selling at a loss accounting for over 65% of exchange inflows
Bitcoin was priced at approximately $63,020 on Friday, down 1.7% on the day and 50% lower than the record high of $126,080 set in October. Bitcoin failed to hold above $65,000 on Wednesday, dropping to an intraday low of $62,640, breaking through the $64,500 Put Wall associated with this week's option expiry. Glassnode数据显示，over 65% of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges comes from long-term holders selling at a loss. The firm noted that this reading aligns with early bear market phases, during which this group dominated the sell-side until selling pressure gradually exhausted. Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at Hashkey, stated that the global equity pullback and accelerated deleveraging of semiconductor and AI-related assets have dampened market risk appetite and reduced institutional exposure to Bitcoin. He pointed out that the derivatives market does not show crowded leverage, with selling pressure concentrated in the spot market. After a net outflow of $425 million on Monday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $181 million on Tuesday and $108 million on Wednesday. Related funds have attracted cumulative inflows of approximately $51 billion since their launch in 2024. (Decrypt)
Analysis: Long-term holders' loss-making inflows to exchanges account for over 65%, selling pressure still dominates exchange fund flows.
Glassnode stated that the extent to which long-term holders dominate selling pressure can be assessed by observing exchange fund flows. The indicator "Long-Term Holder/Short-Term Holder Exchange Realized Profit/Loss Relative Ratio" shows that among the funds currently flowing into exchanges, over 65% come from long-term holders selling at a loss.
Hyperliquid Top Trader's Bitcoin Long Position Hits Glassnode Record, Surpassing Level from Last Rally to $83,000
on-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that top traders on decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid are heavily long on Bitcoin, with their sustained long position reaching the highest level since the platform's records began, surpassing the level seen during Bitcoin's previous rally to approximately $83,000. Glassnode noted that this position indicates strong speculative demand at the current price level. Hyperliquid is a decentralized derivatives exchange where traders can trade leveraged perpetual contracts with no expiry date on-chain. A Bitcoin whale on Hyperliquid has recently pushed net long positions to a year-to-date high. Glassnode's weekly report shows that despite Bitcoin's price decline in June, accumulation has continued; Bitcoin has recently reclaimed the $65,000 level.
Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $424.66 million, led by Fidelity and Blackrock funds
On July 13, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $424.66 million, with Fidelity's FBTC net outflow of $245.62 million, Blackrock's IBIT net outflow of $185.5 million, and Grayscale's GBTC net outflow of $53.06 million. Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust had a net inflow of $53.38 million, while Vaneck's HODL posted a net inflow of $6.14 million. The total trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs was $2.06 billion, with total net assets of $74.79 billion. Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $15.41 million, mainly from Fidelity's FETH, with total trading volume of $430.91 million and net assets of $9.46 billion. HYPE ETFs saw a net outflow of $3.93 million, all from Bitwise's BHYP, with total trading volume of $14.79 million and net assets of $327.79 million. XRP and Solana ETFs had no trading activity that day. Glassnode indicates that the trading volume of US spot ETFs has dropped by 78% from its peak and is now below 2024 levels. (Bitcoin.com News).
Analysis: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Transfer Holdings to New Buyers, RHODL Indicator Pullback Suggests Market May Be Brewing a Trend Reversal
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin long-term holders are gradually transferring holdings to a new round of buyers. Glassnode's RHODL Ratio began to decline after reaching a historical second-high of 6.5 in early July and has now fallen below 6, but the Bitcoin price remains trading sideways around the $60,000 range, with no significant panic selling observed.
Coinbase Institutional Maintains Neutral Outlook on Crypto Market for Q3 2026
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released a market report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the cryptocurrency market for the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, the total market capitalization of the crypto market (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 12%, while stablecoin supply reached an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, characterized by compressed valuations, near-multi-year lows in recent active supply, and the proportion of supply in profit breaking below historical statistical lower bounds—historically corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones. However, the macro liquidity environment remains tight, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance under Kevin Warsh's leadership, a strong U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the pace of outflows has begun to slow), thus overall caution is advised.
Glassnode：比特币期权市场防御情绪降温，短期看跌对冲需求回落
Glassnode 发布比特币期权市场数据指出，比特币期权市场的防御性情绪正在降温。未平仓合约看跌/看涨比率已由 6 月下旬的约 0.76 快速降至约 0.52，显示看涨期权未平仓占比上升，随着比特币价格稳定在约 6.7 万美元附近，防御性仓位有所回撤。
Glassnode: Bitcoin Stabilizes Around $60,000, Market Sentiment Heavily Defensive
on-chain data analytics firm Glassnode has released its latest weekly market summary, noting that Bitcoin has briefly stabilized around the $60,000 level. However, the market is characterized by strong defensive traits and a lack of bullish confidence.The spot market is range-bound, with trading activity slightly increasing. Yet, capital continues to flow out on a net basis, and market liquidity is primarily driven by distribution, with no large-scale accumulation observed. The derivatives market is persistently deleveraging, with traders prioritizing downside hedging protection and showing low willingness for directional long positions. Funding rates remain low, indicating a generally weak risk appetite. Institutional pressure is significant, as US spot Bitcoin ETFs are collectively in a state of unrealized losses, with continued net capital outflows and low willingness among institutions to increase positions.Glassnode states that the current market is undergoing a period of structural adjustment and capital contraction. The $60,000 level provides only temporary support, and there are no signs of recovery in spot orders, derivatives positions, or institutional capital. For a sustained upward trend to emerge, a significant restoration of confidence among buyers is required.
Glassnode: Hyperliquid long positions continue to rise amid BTC’s downtrend, increasing short squeeze risk
According to a report released by data analytics platform Glassnode (@glassnode), although BTC’s price remains significantly below its all-time high, traders on Hyperliquid are continuously increasing their long positions, buying the dip throughout the entire downward trend—building up growing potential for a short squeeze. Meanwhile, altcoin cycle signals have returned to “Altseason,” with selling pressure on altcoins tapering off; however, BTC remains under downward pressure, and the current market remains BTC-driven.
Glassnode: Long-Term Holders Not Experiencing Historical-Level BTC Stress, This Correction Far Below Deep Bear Market Levels
According to data released by Glassnode on platform X, the relative unrealized loss of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) briefly reached approximately 15% in early April. Compared to levels exceeding 75% during historical deep bear market cycles, the impact of this market correction on long-term holders is notably lighter.The analysis points out that while recent price pullbacks have caused some paper losses, the overall pressure remains far below historical cycle lows, indicating that the current decline has not yet posed a substantive test to the conviction of long-term holders. Structurally, this adjustment is more characteristic of mid-term volatility rather than a full-scale cyclical capitulation event.
Glassnode: BTC Rises to ~$82,000 in Its 20th Week, with On-Chain Activity and Derivatives Risk Appetite Rising in Tandem
Glassnode’s Week 20 BTC Market Report states that BTC rose last week from above $77,000 to below $82,000, with strengthening spot demand and futures activity and sustained buying absorbing pullbacks. The report notes rising Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), spot trading volume, futures open interest, and perpetual swap CVD—indicating a rebound in market risk appetite. However, price momentum slowed, and long funding rates declined, signaling a marginal cooling of bullish sentiment. In the options market, demand for downside protection decreased and open interest increased, yet the volatility skew widened, reflecting persistently high market uncertainty. On-chain metrics show increases in daily active addresses, entity-adjusted transaction volume, and total fees; profitability indicators improved, and the overall market structure continues to recover.
Related news
Coinbase Institutional Maintains Neutral Outlook on Crypto Market for Q3 2026
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released a market report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the cryptocurrency market for the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, the total market capitalization of the crypto market (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 12%, while stablecoin supply reached an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, characterized by compressed valuations, near-multi-year lows in recent active supply, and the proportion of supply in profit breaking below historical statistical lower bounds—historically corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones. However, the macro liquidity environment remains tight, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance under Kevin Warsh's leadership, a strong U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the pace of outflows has begun to slow), thus overall caution is advised.
Glassnode：比特币期权市场防御情绪降温，短期看跌对冲需求回落
Glassnode 发布比特币期权市场数据指出，比特币期权市场的防御性情绪正在降温。未平仓合约看跌/看涨比率已由 6 月下旬的约 0.76 快速降至约 0.52，显示看涨期权未平仓占比上升，随着比特币价格稳定在约 6.7 万美元附近，防御性仓位有所回撤。
Glassnode: Bitcoin Options Sentiment Turns Positive, Put/Call Ratio Drops to Six-Month Low
Glassnode stated that sentiment in the Bitcoin options market is improving. As Bitcoin prices rebounded, implied volatility dropped from 48 to 40, indicating that some of the fear premium accumulated in June is fading, but volatility remains higher than the May lows, and uncertainty has not yet completely disappeared.
Bitcoin falls to around $63,000, with long-term holders selling at a loss accounting for over 65% of exchange inflows
Bitcoin was priced at approximately $63,020 on Friday, down 1.7% on the day and 50% lower than the record high of $126,080 set in October. Bitcoin failed to hold above $65,000 on Wednesday, dropping to an intraday low of $62,640, breaking through the $64,500 Put Wall associated with this week's option expiry. Glassnode数据显示，over 65% of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges comes from long-term holders selling at a loss. The firm noted that this reading aligns with early bear market phases, during which this group dominated the sell-side until selling pressure gradually exhausted. Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at Hashkey, stated that the global equity pullback and accelerated deleveraging of semiconductor and AI-related assets have dampened market risk appetite and reduced institutional exposure to Bitcoin. He pointed out that the derivatives market does not show crowded leverage, with selling pressure concentrated in the spot market. After a net outflow of $425 million on Monday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $181 million on Tuesday and $108 million on Wednesday. Related funds have attracted cumulative inflows of approximately $51 billion since their launch in 2024. (Decrypt)
Analysis: Long-term holders' loss-making inflows to exchanges account for over 65%, selling pressure still dominates exchange fund flows.
Glassnode stated that the extent to which long-term holders dominate selling pressure can be assessed by observing exchange fund flows. The indicator "Long-Term Holder/Short-Term Holder Exchange Realized Profit/Loss Relative Ratio" shows that among the funds currently flowing into exchanges, over 65% come from long-term holders selling at a loss.
Hyperliquid Top Trader's Bitcoin Long Position Hits Glassnode Record, Surpassing Level from Last Rally to $83,000
on-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that top traders on decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid are heavily long on Bitcoin, with their sustained long position reaching the highest level since the platform's records began, surpassing the level seen during Bitcoin's previous rally to approximately $83,000. Glassnode noted that this position indicates strong speculative demand at the current price level. Hyperliquid is a decentralized derivatives exchange where traders can trade leveraged perpetual contracts with no expiry date on-chain. A Bitcoin whale on Hyperliquid has recently pushed net long positions to a year-to-date high. Glassnode's weekly report shows that despite Bitcoin's price decline in June, accumulation has continued; Bitcoin has recently reclaimed the $65,000 level.