Bernstein: Crypto CLARITY Act Passage Odds Rise Above 30%, Shorts Under Pressure
According to Chaoxiang research, Bernstein's September 14, 2026 report indicates that the Kalshi prediction market has rebounded to a greater than 30% probability for the passage of the CLARITY Act. The CLARITY Act, officially the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, centers on establishing a federal regulatory framework for the U.S. cryptocurrency market, delineating regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, and clarifying exchange compliance requirements and stablecoin yield rules. The latest Senate Republican draft has made substantive concessions on Trump-related ethics provisions and incorporates a "new circuit breaker" clause to address concerns over deposit outflows from community banks. A procedural vote is scheduled for Tuesday, with the Federal Reserve set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday.
