“1011 Insider Whale” Agent: Market Bets on a “Peace Deal,” but Hormuz Risk Remains Unresolved

Garrett Jin, agent of “1011 Insider Whale,” published an analysis pointing out that the current market is pricing in “peace expectations,” driving sustained gains in risk assets—but this is markedly diverging from the actual supply-demand dynamics in the energy market. Data shows the S&P 500 has hit a new all-time high, while Brent crude oil has rebounded to approximately $103 per barrel. Earlier in March, hedge funds aggressively shorted the market; Goldman Sachs data indicated a short-to-long ratio peaking at 7.6:1—the fastest net selling pace in 13 years. Yet the core assumptions underpinning the market rally—resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, falling oil prices, declining inflation, and Federal Reserve rate cuts—remain unfulfilled. The gap between forward earnings expectations and actual earnings has surged to levels last seen at the 2021 peak; historically, similar gaps have preceded bear markets, such as the 2022 downturn.