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Robin Hanson, “one of the founding theorists of prediction markets,” opposes Kalshi and Polymarket’s blanket bans on insider trading.
According to Fortune magazine, as Kalshi and Polymarket accelerate coordination with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to crack down on insider trading, Robin Hanson—a founding theorist of prediction markets and economics professor at George Mason University—publicly voiced his disapproval, stating that “insider participation in trading” is precisely the core value underpinning prediction markets. Earlier, the U.S. Department of Justice charged a U.S. military servicemember with using classified intelligence to place bets on Polymarket regarding a Venezuelan raid operation, illegally profiting approximately $400,000. In response, Robin Hanson remarked: “You want them to trade. You want prices to be as accurate as possible—the market’s purpose is to aid decision-making.” Robin Hanson argues that, like all economic models, insiders will trade: informed participants buy “yes” contracts, thereby driving prices upward toward the truth. If insiders refrain from betting, the information-discovery function of prediction markets would be severely weakened, and such markets would fail to reflect real-world outcomes faster than news media or public opinion polls. Insider trading is likewise widespread in traditional financial markets, yet regulators address only a tiny fraction of cases. Prediction markets, like investigative journalism, are fundamentally mechanisms designed to accelerate information disclosure—and thus should not be subject to blanket prohibition. As a compromise, Robin Hanson proposes: any legislation banning government employees from participating in prediction market trading should, by the same logic, also prohibit them from speaking with journalists.
Kalshi Executive: Insider Trading Is Not Unique to Prediction Markets; It Requires Refined Solutions
Odaily, John Wang, Kalshi's Head of Cryptocurrency, responded on X to the controversy surrounding insider trading in prediction markets, stating: "I believe this is a very important issue, but it is not unique to prediction markets. The stock market is essentially a prediction market for a company's future performance, and there has been a long history of exploration and iteration regarding the boundary between 'legitimate information advantages' and 'illegal use of material non-public information.' The role of regulation is to find this balance. Just like the stock market, insider trading is a complex problem that requires refined solutions, but it is not insurmountable. I also agree that when operating at scale, introducing mechanisms such as KYC and market surveillance is very necessary to help prevent insider trading. That's why we have adopted this approach at Kalshi from day one."
U.S. soldier who illegally profited $400,000 on Polymarket had previously been denied an account by Kalshi
According to Business Insider, U.S. Army Special Forces Sergeant Major Gannon Van Dyke has been charged with allegedly using classified military information to place bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket regarding the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—netting over $400,000 in illegal profits. Notably, Van Dyke had previously attempted to open an account on rival platform Kalshi but was rejected due to failure to pass identity verification and KYC checks. Polymarket stated it proactively reported the suspicious trading activity to law enforcement authorities and has fully cooperated with the investigation. This case is regarded as the first major insider-trading criminal prosecution in the prediction market space, reigniting market concerns about insider-trading risks on prediction platforms.
Polymarket Cracks Down on Insider Trading: If Users Are Found Trading on Government Classified Information, the Case Will Be Referred to the Department of Justice with Cooperation in Investigation
Polymarket posted on X platform, saying, "Last month, we released enhanced market integrity rules to combat insider trading. When we discovered that a user was trading based on government classified information, we referred the matter to the Department of Justice and cooperated with their investigation. Polymarket has zero tolerance for insider trading, and today's arrest proves the system is effective."The arrest referred to by Polymarket involved a special forces soldier who participated in the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and was taken into custody by U.S. federal authorities on Thursday. The soldier is suspected of profiting over $400,000 by betting on Maduro's removal from power. Sources say federal investigators believe that the commando placed over $33,000 in bets on the prediction market Polymarket just hours before President Trump announced Maduro's capture in January.For details on the insider trading related to the Maduro capture operation on Polymarket, please see When War is Settled Before the News is Out: How Prediction Markets "Priced In" Maduro's Capture 6 Days Early
New York State Governor Signs Executive Order Restricting Public Officials from Participating in Prediction Market Insider Trading
Odaily News: New York State Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order on Wednesday prohibiting state government employees from using non-public information to trade in prediction markets or assisting others in profiting from it. This move aims to address growing concerns over "insider betting" in prediction markets.According to the executive order, all government officials appointed by the governor or under her jurisdiction, as well as members of public agencies, are prohibited from using any non-public information obtained in the course of their duties to seek profits or avoid losses in prediction markets or similar services. They are also barred from assisting others in such activities. The governor mentioned in the document that the current "rapid expansion of prediction markets" has drawn regulatory attention.The day before, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker also issued a similar executive order, banning state government personnel from using non-public information to participate in prediction market betting.Meanwhile, prediction market platform Kalshi disclosed that it has launched investigations into three insider trading cases involving candidates and has imposed fines and trading suspensions on the relevant individuals. One of those penalized is Mark Moran, a candidate in the Virginia State Senate Democratic primary, who was penalized for betting on his own campaign and stated he "hoped to be caught."
Polymarket to Investigate “Insider Copy-Trading” Startup Amid Concerns Over Potential Market Manipulation
According to The Information, prediction market Polymarket has announced audits of several early-stage startups integrated into its ecosystem. These startups had previously been accused of identifying and distributing suspected “insider trading accounts” to steer users into copy-trading those accounts. Among the implicated projects are Kreo—which touts itself as a service for “detecting insider accounts ahead of time”—and Polycool—which offers an “insider trading guide.” By pushing suspicious account trading data to users, these platforms have amplified market concerns about insider trading and market manipulation. Polymarket’s move signals its strengthened compliance oversight of its ecosystem, following sustained external scrutiny over potential insider trading risks in prediction markets.
“1011 Insider Whale” Agent: Market Bets on a “Peace Deal,” but Hormuz Risk Remains Unresolved
Garrett Jin, agent of “1011 Insider Whale,” published an analysis pointing out that the current market is pricing in “peace expectations,” driving sustained gains in risk assets—but this is markedly diverging from the actual supply-demand dynamics in the energy market. Data shows the S&P 500 has hit a new all-time high, while Brent crude oil has rebounded to approximately $103 per barrel. Earlier in March, hedge funds aggressively shorted the market; Goldman Sachs data indicated a short-to-long ratio peaking at 7.6:1—the fastest net selling pace in 13 years. Yet the core assumptions underpinning the market rally—resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, falling oil prices, declining inflation, and Federal Reserve rate cuts—remain unfulfilled. The gap between forward earnings expectations and actual earnings has surged to levels last seen at the 2021 peak; historically, similar gaps have preceded bear markets, such as the 2022 downturn.
“BTC OG Insider Whale”-Associated Wallet Built Position in Binance Life One Month Ago, Unrealized Profit Exceeds $15 Million
According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), two wallets linked to Garrett Jin (a veteran Bitcoin insider whale) withdrew 59 million Binance Tokens (BNB) from Binance one month ago—valued at approximately $4.38 million at the time of withdrawal, when the price was $0.074 per token. The current market value of these BNB tokens has reached $19.5 million, representing an unrealized profit exceeding $15 million.
“1011 Insider Whale” Agent: U.S. Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Poses New Risks to Global Energy and Crypto Markets
Garrett Jin, agent of “1011 Insider Whale,” published an analysis stating that the U.S. government announced a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, effective 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on April 13, prohibiting all vessels from entering or departing Iranian ports. This measure aims to cut off Iran’s oil revenue derived from this energy hub and reverse its current economic advantage in the ongoing conflict. Over the past six weeks, Iran has levied steep fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and restricted energy exports for certain countries, triggering significant volatility in both cryptocurrency markets and global oil prices. The U.S. action is expected to impact market risk pricing for major crypto assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. The analysis notes that although the U.S. holds the initiative, Iran may continue exporting oil by escalating the conflict, relying on Chinese support, and utilizing decentralized gray markets—meaning war risks and market volatility will persist.
Polymarket Cracks Down on Insider Trading: If Users Are Found Trading on Government Classified Information, the Case Will Be Referred to the Department of Justice with Cooperation in Investigation
Polymarket posted on X platform, saying, "Last month, we released enhanced market integrity rules to combat insider trading. When we discovered that a user was trading based on government classified information, we referred the matter to the Department of Justice and cooperated with their investigation. Polymarket has zero tolerance for insider trading, and today's arrest proves the system is effective."The arrest referred to by Polymarket involved a special forces soldier who participated in the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and was taken into custody by U.S. federal authorities on Thursday. The soldier is suspected of profiting over $400,000 by betting on Maduro's removal from power. Sources say federal investigators believe that the commando placed over $33,000 in bets on the prediction market Polymarket just hours before President Trump announced Maduro's capture in January.For details on the insider trading related to the Maduro capture operation on Polymarket, please see When War is Settled Before the News is Out: How Prediction Markets "Priced In" Maduro's Capture 6 Days Early
New York State Governor Signs Executive Order Restricting Public Officials from Participating in Prediction Market Insider Trading
Odaily News: New York State Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order on Wednesday prohibiting state government employees from using non-public information to trade in prediction markets or assisting others in profiting from it. This move aims to address growing concerns over "insider betting" in prediction markets.According to the executive order, all government officials appointed by the governor or under her jurisdiction, as well as members of public agencies, are prohibited from using any non-public information obtained in the course of their duties to seek profits or avoid losses in prediction markets or similar services. They are also barred from assisting others in such activities. The governor mentioned in the document that the current "rapid expansion of prediction markets" has drawn regulatory attention.The day before, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker also issued a similar executive order, banning state government personnel from using non-public information to participate in prediction market betting.Meanwhile, prediction market platform Kalshi disclosed that it has launched investigations into three insider trading cases involving candidates and has imposed fines and trading suspensions on the relevant individuals. One of those penalized is Mark Moran, a candidate in the Virginia State Senate Democratic primary, who was penalized for betting on his own campaign and stated he "hoped to be caught."
Circle Launches New Cross-Chain USDC Payment Mechanism for Unified Settlement in High-Frequency Scenarios
According to Crowdfund Insider, Circle has launched a new solution for high-frequency cross-chain USDC payments. Developers can leverage the Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) to enable local fulfillment providers to front-pay on the recipient’s designated chain, with the platform subsequently performing batch cross-chain settlement. This model reduces operational overhead associated with individual cross-chain transfers and is suitable for platforms processing large volumes of payments daily. Compared to the traditional CCTP process—which requires individual USDC burn-and-mint operations per transfer—the new solution supports batch settlement, reducing the number of burns on the source chain and eliminating the need for signature infrastructure on the destination chain. Circle also demonstrated the workflow using the Arc Testnet and Ethereum Sepolia.
“1011 Insider Whale” Agent: U.S. Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Poses New Risks to Global Energy and Crypto Markets
Garrett Jin, agent of “1011 Insider Whale,” published an analysis stating that the U.S. government announced a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, effective 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on April 13, prohibiting all vessels from entering or departing Iranian ports. This measure aims to cut off Iran’s oil revenue derived from this energy hub and reverse its current economic advantage in the ongoing conflict. Over the past six weeks, Iran has levied steep fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and restricted energy exports for certain countries, triggering significant volatility in both cryptocurrency markets and global oil prices. The U.S. action is expected to impact market risk pricing for major crypto assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. The analysis notes that although the U.S. holds the initiative, Iran may continue exporting oil by escalating the conflict, relying on Chinese support, and utilizing decentralized gray markets—meaning war risks and market volatility will persist.
Insider: Gemini plans to convert the Winklevoss brothers’ ~$330 million loan into equity
According to Bloomberg, Gemini (GEMI), the cryptocurrency exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, has seen its market value more than halved this year, with its stock price down over 50% year-to-date. The company has laid off approximately 30% of its workforce and exited major overseas markets including the UK, the EU, and Australia, significantly increasing its financial pressure. According to sources familiar with the matter, Gemini is internally discussing a proposal to request that its founder-twins waive—or convert into equity—the roughly $330 million in loans they extended to the company. These loans were primarily provided through Winklevoss Capital Fund LLC. As of December 31, 2025, Gemini still owed 4,619 bitcoins (valued at over $330 million at the time). As the company’s primary controlling shareholders, the twins’ approval of such a move would directly impact Gemini’s capital structure. Following the report’s publication, Gemini’s stock price surged nearly 9% temporarily, though it remains sharply down for the year. The company has previously weathered executive departures, a strategic pivot toward prediction markets, and shareholder lawsuits; this latest focus on loan restructuring further underscores the ongoing impact of the crypto winter on exchanges.
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APE Insider Loses $194K, Closes $4.58M LDO Long Position
According to Lookonchain monitoring, an APE insider has closed a long position of 10.26 million LDO (worth approximately $4.58 million), realizing no profit and incurring a loss of around $194,000.
Robin Hanson, “one of the founding theorists of prediction markets,” opposes Kalshi and Polymarket’s blanket bans on insider trading.
According to Fortune magazine, as Kalshi and Polymarket accelerate coordination with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to crack down on insider trading, Robin Hanson—a founding theorist of prediction markets and economics professor at George Mason University—publicly voiced his disapproval, stating that “insider participation in trading” is precisely the core value underpinning prediction markets. Earlier, the U.S. Department of Justice charged a U.S. military servicemember with using classified intelligence to place bets on Polymarket regarding a Venezuelan raid operation, illegally profiting approximately $400,000. In response, Robin Hanson remarked: “You want them to trade. You want prices to be as accurate as possible—the market’s purpose is to aid decision-making.” Robin Hanson argues that, like all economic models, insiders will trade: informed participants buy “yes” contracts, thereby driving prices upward toward the truth. If insiders refrain from betting, the information-discovery function of prediction markets would be severely weakened, and such markets would fail to reflect real-world outcomes faster than news media or public opinion polls. Insider trading is likewise widespread in traditional financial markets, yet regulators address only a tiny fraction of cases. Prediction markets, like investigative journalism, are fundamentally mechanisms designed to accelerate information disclosure—and thus should not be subject to blanket prohibition. As a compromise, Robin Hanson proposes: any legislation banning government employees from participating in prediction market trading should, by the same logic, also prohibit them from speaking with journalists.
Kalshi Executive: Insider Trading Is Not Unique to Prediction Markets; It Requires Refined Solutions
Odaily, John Wang, Kalshi's Head of Cryptocurrency, responded on X to the controversy surrounding insider trading in prediction markets, stating: "I believe this is a very important issue, but it is not unique to prediction markets. The stock market is essentially a prediction market for a company's future performance, and there has been a long history of exploration and iteration regarding the boundary between 'legitimate information advantages' and 'illegal use of material non-public information.' The role of regulation is to find this balance. Just like the stock market, insider trading is a complex problem that requires refined solutions, but it is not insurmountable. I also agree that when operating at scale, introducing mechanisms such as KYC and market surveillance is very necessary to help prevent insider trading. That's why we have adopted this approach at Kalshi from day one."
U.S. soldier who illegally profited $400,000 on Polymarket had previously been denied an account by Kalshi
According to Business Insider, U.S. Army Special Forces Sergeant Major Gannon Van Dyke has been charged with allegedly using classified military information to place bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket regarding the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—netting over $400,000 in illegal profits. Notably, Van Dyke had previously attempted to open an account on rival platform Kalshi but was rejected due to failure to pass identity verification and KYC checks. Polymarket stated it proactively reported the suspicious trading activity to law enforcement authorities and has fully cooperated with the investigation. This case is regarded as the first major insider-trading criminal prosecution in the prediction market space, reigniting market concerns about insider-trading risks on prediction platforms.
Polymarket Cracks Down on Insider Trading: If Users Are Found Trading on Government Classified Information, the Case Will Be Referred to the Department of Justice with Cooperation in Investigation
Polymarket posted on X platform, saying, "Last month, we released enhanced market integrity rules to combat insider trading. When we discovered that a user was trading based on government classified information, we referred the matter to the Department of Justice and cooperated with their investigation. Polymarket has zero tolerance for insider trading, and today's arrest proves the system is effective."The arrest referred to by Polymarket involved a special forces soldier who participated in the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and was taken into custody by U.S. federal authorities on Thursday. The soldier is suspected of profiting over $400,000 by betting on Maduro's removal from power. Sources say federal investigators believe that the commando placed over $33,000 in bets on the prediction market Polymarket just hours before President Trump announced Maduro's capture in January.For details on the insider trading related to the Maduro capture operation on Polymarket, please see When War is Settled Before the News is Out: How Prediction Markets "Priced In" Maduro's Capture 6 Days Early
“1011 Insider Whale” Agent: Market Bets on a “Peace Deal,” but Hormuz Risk Remains Unresolved
Garrett Jin, agent of “1011 Insider Whale,” published an analysis pointing out that the current market is pricing in “peace expectations,” driving sustained gains in risk assets—but this is markedly diverging from the actual supply-demand dynamics in the energy market. Data shows the S&P 500 has hit a new all-time high, while Brent crude oil has rebounded to approximately $103 per barrel. Earlier in March, hedge funds aggressively shorted the market; Goldman Sachs data indicated a short-to-long ratio peaking at 7.6:1—the fastest net selling pace in 13 years. Yet the core assumptions underpinning the market rally—resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, falling oil prices, declining inflation, and Federal Reserve rate cuts—remain unfulfilled. The gap between forward earnings expectations and actual earnings has surged to levels last seen at the 2021 peak; historically, similar gaps have preceded bear markets, such as the 2022 downturn.