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Morgan Stanley: CPO Growth Overestimated by 30 Times, Only 23k Units in 2026
According to Chaoxiang Research, Morgan Stanley's latest CPO report indicates a significant divergence between market expectations for CPO and actual shipments, with only 23k units expected in 2026, whereas prior market expectations were generally above 200k. The core bottleneck lies in TSMC's PIC capacity ramp-up (10→25kwpm) and the 20-50% yield dilemma. This expectation gap will directly impact core targets such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, and TSMC. The report also downgraded TSMC's CoWoS capacity forecast (2027 45→40kwpm), and AllRing's 53% growth expectation faces significant risks. Optical companies such as Lumentum and Coherent are expected to contribute less than 1% to CPO in 2026-2027. In terms of the A-share market, Tfc Communication, SMIC, and Eoptolink are largely absent from core links in the CPO supply chain, with limited relevance to the concepts hyped by the market. Morgan Stanley advises investors to remain cautious before the potential "disappointing quarterly report" in Q2 2027.
Coherent
NVIDIA
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $221.72 million.
According to Trader T (@thepfund) data, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $221.72 million yesterday, following 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows. Performance of each product is as follows: • Fidelity FBTC: +$165.96 million (largest inflow of the day) • Ark ARKB: +$91.84 million • VanEck HODL: +$4.35 million • BlackRock IBIT: -$40.43 million (counter-trend outflow) • Other products (Bitwise, Invesco, Franklin, Valkyrie, WisdomTree, Grayscale, Morgan Stanley): No fund changes for the day
Ark
Ark
Bitcoin
Bitwise
Franklin
Grayscale
Morgan Stanley Rates Meta: Cloud Focus on Compute Rental, Target Price $775
According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley released a research report on July 1 stating that, regarding Bloomberg's report on Meta planning a cloud computing business, it judges that Meta is more likely to choose the lighter path of renting out idle computing power rather than building a full cloud service benchmarking AWS. The report calculates that renting out 250 MW of computing power at $40/watt could be accretive to 2028 earnings per share by approximately 8%, and when the scale reaches 1000 MW, the accretion could reach 33%, but this earnings accretion is viewed as a transitional buffer, not the core logic supporting the rating. Morgan Stanley also mentioned that Meta's self-held computing power will expand to 1.9 GW and 3.4 GW in 2026 and 2027 respectively, providing room for the rental calculations. Morgan Stanley maintains its Overweight rating on Meta with a target price of $775, representing approximately 37.6% upside compared to the closing price of $563.29, while setting the 2027 capital expenditure expectation at $175 billion; if the cloud computing business scales up, there is a possibility of an upward revision in capital expenditure.
Agentwood Studios
Focus
Price
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $296 million.
According to Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $296 million yesterday. On the outflow side: BlackRock $IBIT saw an outflow of $219 million, Grayscale $GBTC saw an outflow of $62.79 million, Fidelity $FBTC saw an outflow of $51.02 million, and Ark $ARKB saw an outflow of $39.90 million. On the inflow side: Grayscale Mini $BTC saw an inflow of $36.33 million, Morgan Stanley $MSBT saw an inflow of $29.81 million, Invesco $BTCO saw an inflow of $5.37 million, Franklin $EZBC saw an inflow of $3.48 million, and VanEck $HODL saw an inflow of $2.13 million. Bitwise $BITB, Valkyrie $BRRR, and WisdomTree $BTCW had zero inflows and outflows for the day.
Ark
Ark
Bitcoin
Bitwise
BRRR
Franklin
Morgan Stanley Bullish on GOOGL and META, True Valuation Undervalued by Over 30%
According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley released an Internet Tracking Report, noting that Google and Meta's nominal EV/EBITDA multiples appear inexpensive (GOOGL 16.1x, META 8.9x), but after adjusting for stock-based compensation accounting treatment, the true multiple rises from 16.3x to 31.1x (+91%), still lower than the five-year average of 31.6x, implying that the true valuation of internet giants is undervalued by the market by more than 30%.
based
Bullish
Cometa
Meta Pool
MetaDAO
Metadium
“White-Hair Stock God” Serenity: Semiconductor Supply Chain Bottlenecks Intensify, OSAT Providers Raise Prices
Odaily Odaily News “White-Hair Stock God” Serenity summarized recent dynamics in the semiconductor industry on X platform, indicating multiple signs show the semiconductor supply chain is tightening. Citing institutional and industry sources, Serenity noted that Morgan Stanley has raised its 2026 forecast for humanoid robot shipments in China from 14,000 and 28,000 units at the beginning of the year to 50,000 units. Probe cards and test sockets are expected to see price increases due to precious metal price hikes and shortages of test pin capacity. Yageo has raised prices on products such as MLCCs, aluminum electrolytic capacitors, tantalum capacitors, polymer aluminum capacitors, film capacitors, and supercapacitors.Additionally, Serenity stated that Meta’s next-generation Vistara architecture will adopt DDR4 memory combined with a CXL expansion solution. OpenAI is reported to have made a breakthrough in inference optimization, halving inference costs and reducing GPU demand. After Samsung signed a long-term supply agreement (LTA) with a major US tech customer, it has also begun adopting long-term agreement supply models for MLCCs.Serenity also cited a Digitimes report that OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) packaging and testing providers have begun to raise prices. Currently, memory and IC packaging and testing capacity have both become significant bottlenecks in the semiconductor supply chain.
Assembly
Chain
GPU.Net
Node AI
Raise
Serenity
Morgan Stanley Raises Alphabet Target to $415, Bullish on Google Cloud Hitting $308 Billion by 2028
The report estimates that Google will add 9 GW of computing capacity in 2028, with 7 GW from self-developed TPUs and 2 GW from NVIDIA GPUs. Based on this, Morgan Stanley predicts Google Cloud revenue will reach $308 billion in 2028 ($229 billion from core cloud services plus $79 billion from external TPU sales), with Cloud EBIT reaching $132 billion, accounting for 46% of the entire company.
Based
Based
Bullish
GPU.Net
Node AI
NVIDIA
Silicon Valley Bank: Bitcoin Collateralized Loan Market Accelerating Institutionalization, Interest Rates Expected to Continue Declining
According to a research report by Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the Bitcoin collateralized loan market has completed its reconstruction after experiencing the successive collapses of BlockFi, Celsius, and Genesis in 2022, and the current ecosystem places greater emphasis on collateral transparency and risk management. In Q1 2026, the total crypto collateralized loan volume reached $67 billion, a year-over-year increase of approximately 50%. Several major US banks have already offered Bitcoin collateralized credit lines to select clients, with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citi, Charles Schwab, and Morgan Stanley all having entered the market. In February this year, Canadian digital asset lending company Ledn completed the issuance of $188 million in Bitcoin collateralized ABS, receiving a BBB investment-grade rating from S&P Global, marking the first Bitcoin collateralized securitized product approved by a major rating agency.
Bitcoin
Bitgreen
BlockFi
Genesis
Genesis
Ledn
Kalshi in Talks to Raise Funding at $40 Billion Valuation
prediction market platform Kalshi is in talks to raise a new round of funding at a valuation of approximately $40 billion, with a potential deal closing as early as the third quarter. Last month, Kalshi completed a $1 billion funding round from investors including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue, and Morgan Stanley, at a valuation of $22 billion.Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the company is considering an IPO, but it will not go public in 2026, with a potential listing likely no earlier than late 2027 or 2028. Kalshi reported that as of April 2026, its annualized trading volume reached $178 billion, a 32-fold increase year-over-year.Kalshi is currently embroiled in a legal dispute between U.S. state and federal regulators over the oversight of prediction markets. The controversy includes whether sports event contracts constitute derivatives regulated by the CFTC or illegal gambling. CME has sued the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi's "perpetual" futures, Kentucky sued Kalshi and Polymarket this month, and the CFTC subsequently sued Kentucky to block its enforcement action. (Decrypt)
Decrypt
Kalshi
Polymarket
Raise
Prediction market platform Kalshi is in talks for a new funding round, with a valuation of approximately $4 billion.
According to the UK’s Financial Times, prediction market platform Kalshi is in talks for a new funding round valuing the company at approximately $4 billion, potentially closing as early as Q3 this year. Last month, Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $2.2 billion valuation, with investors including Coatue, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, and Morgan Stanley.
Kalshi
Morgan Stanley's BTC holdings reach $288.4 million after adding 166.24 BTC, a dormant wallet receives 500 BTC after one year
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a wallet that had been dormant for a year received 500 BTC from BitGo, valued at $32.31 million. Morgan Stanley also purchased 166.24 BTC from Coinbase, worth $10.74 million, and currently holds 4,515 BTC, valued at $288.4 million.
Bitcoin
BitGo
Coinbase
Onchain
Morgan Stanley Updates Ethereum and Solana ETF Filings, Plans 0.14% Fee
Financial services firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday filed amended S-1 documents with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, updating its Ethereum and Solana ETF applications and proposing a 0.14% fee for both products. Currently, the lowest fee among spot Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. is the Grayscale Ethereum Staking Mini ETF at 0.15%; among spot Solana ETFs, the Franklin Solana ETF charges 0.19%. Morgan Stanley's latest filings also indicate that Figment, Galaxy Blockchain Infrastructure, and Coinbase Canada will provide staking services for both ETFs, with each fund charging a 5% staking fee on rewards generated by the products. The Morgan Stanley Ethereum Trust is proposed to trade under the ticker MSSE, while the Morgan Stanley Solana Trust is proposed to use the ticker MSOL. (Cointelegraph)
Coinbase
Cointelegraph
Ethereum
Figment
Franklin
Galaxy
Morgan Stanley Files S-1 Amendments for Ethereum and Solana ETFs
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, Morgan Stanley has filed its S-1 amendments for its Ethereum and Solana ETFs with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Ethereum
Solana
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $10.04 million.
According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), yesterday’s net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs amounted to $10.04 million. Specifically, BlackRock’s $IBIT saw an inflow of $16.34 million, Fidelity’s $FBTC an inflow of $4.28 million, Morgan Stanley’s $MSBT an inflow of $1.88 million, and Grayscale’s mini-Bitcoin ETF $BTC an inflow of $4.35 million; meanwhile, Grayscale’s $GBTC experienced an outflow of $16.81 million.
Bitcoin
Grayscale
IBIT
InfinityBit
贝莱德
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $64.84 million.
According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $64.84 million yesterday. Grayscale’s GBTC alone saw a single-day outflow of $124 million, dragging down overall performance; BlackRock’s IBIT posted the strongest inflow at $66.45 million, followed by Morgan Stanley’s MSBT ($9.35 million) and Grayscale’s Mini BTC ($10.6 million); Fidelity’s FBTC recorded an outflow of $8.69 million, VanEck’s HODL $6.13 million, Ark Invest’s ARKB $6.63 million, and Franklin Templeton’s EZBC $5.78 million.
Ark
Ark
Bitcoin
Franklin
Franklin Templeton
Grayscale
Morgan Stanley’s “buy-the-dip” Bitcoin holdings reach 3,850 BTC
According to Arkham’s monitoring data, Morgan Stanley has recently adopted a “buy-the-dip” strategy, acquiring 71.661 BTC—valued at $4.57 million—through its spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), MSBT. As of now, its total Bitcoin holdings have reached 3,850 BTC, valued at approximately $242.6 million.
Arkham
Bitcoin
Bitget Lists Spot Stocks including Morgan Stanley, Nike, Pfizer, and 90 Others
According to an official announcement, Bitget has listed spot stocks for a total of 90 assets, including rMS (Morgan Stanley), rNKE (Nike), rPFE (Pfizer), rXOM (Exxon Mobil), and rOXY (Occidental Petroleum), covering multiple sectors such as energy, healthcare, financial services, and technology & communications.It is reported that rTokens, identified by the prefix 'r' + stock ticker (e.g., rNVDA for Nvidia), are issued by Reality, a licensed RWA protocol under Bitget. Through a partnership with compliant broker Alpaca, these tokens connect directly to global liquidity pools including Nasdaq and the NYSE. Key features include: a 1:1 reserve of the underlying asset held by a licensed custodian, stock dividends distributed 1:1 in token form, synchronized mirroring of corporate actions (such as stock splits/reverse splits), and usability as cross-margin collateral for unified accounts and USDT-margined contracts. This allows users to hold global stock assets while still managing their funds flexibly.
ALLO
Bitget
Key
Reality
RWA Inc.
Tether
Morgan Stanley: Global AI-Related Bond Issuance Could Approach $570 Billion in 2026
According to the latest forecast from Morgan Stanley, global bond issuance related to artificial intelligence (AI) could approach $570 billion in 2026, more than doubling from last year's figure.Given that capital expenditures by hyperscalers are expected to surpass $1 trillion by 2027, Morgan Stanley believes the pace of bond issuance will accelerate further in the second half of this year.As of the end of May this year, approximately $236 billion in AI-related debt financing had been issued globally, roughly four times the volume seen during the same period last year.As tech companies continue to escalate their spending on AI, which increasingly exceeds what their own profitability can cover, debt financing is becoming an increasingly important source of capital for them.Morgan Stanley noted that to diversify their funding channels, hyperscalers are increasingly issuing bonds outside of the US dollar market. For instance, giants like Google's parent company Alphabet and Amazon have issued substantial euro-denominated bonds in the European market. (Cailianshe)
Bond
what
SpaceX IPO investor demand has already exceeded $250 billion, approximately four times oversubscribed
investor demand for SpaceX's initial public offering has surpassed $250 billion, higher than the company's planned fundraising target of $75 billion, with an oversubscription rate of approximately three and a half to four times the planned offering size.SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell and CFO Bret Johnsen attended a lunch hosted by Morgan Stanley in Manhattan on Tuesday, meeting with around 300 institutional investors. Elon Musk briefly participated in some Zoom investor meetings during the roadshow. Investor demand may still change before the IPO pricing, which is expected to take place on Thursday afternoon. (Reuters)
Manhattan
Delphi Digital: Only About 12% of Newly Listed Tokens on CEXs Since January Last Year Have Outperformed Their Issuance Price, Reflecting Market Depth Imbalance
Delphi Digital has released its "Token Market Status Report," indicating that the token market in this cycle has been suppressed by multiple structural issues, including token unlocks occurring on a fixed schedule regardless of project performance, protocol revenues failing to effectively flow back to token holders, and airdrops gradually evolving into sources of exit liquidity.The report shows that since January 2025, among all newly listed tokens on major centralized exchanges (CEX), if purchased on the listing day and held to the present, an average investment of $1,000 would have dwindled to approximately $500. The median decline is 82%, with only about 12% of tokens still trading above their issuance price, reflecting a market structure that prioritizes "listing quantity over quality."Regarding tokenomic design, the research points out that across more than 400 unlock events, within a sample of 33, 28 tokens significantly underperformed relative to Bitcoin in the three weeks before and after the unlock, resulting in an average excess loss of approximately 7%. Moreover, most unlocks occur within 30 days, making it difficult for the market to effectively absorb the supply shock.The report also notes that the long-standing industry issue of "missing value accrual" is beginning to change. An increasing number of protocols are starting to use "Fee Switch" mechanisms to return revenue to token holders. For example, Hyperliquid allocates nearly all its fees to buybacks, Uniswap is burning 100 million UNI tokens, Jupiter uses 50% of its fees for buybacks locked for three years, and Aave has passed a DAO-approved weekly buyback plan of $1 million.However, the report emphasizes that fee-based buybacks alone are insufficient to resolve supply pressure. For instance, the scale of buybacks for some projects still cannot offset the selling pressure from token unlocks, leading to a situation where "buybacks only offset inflation but fail to generate net buying pressure."Simultaneously, the structure of institutional capital is shifting. Institutional holdings of Bitcoin-related ETFs like IBIT have grown 62% year-over-year, with advisory channels increasing by 204% and sovereign wealth funds and endowments rising by 228%, while arbitrage-focused hedge funds continue to exit. Long-term capital, including BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Mubadala Investment Company, is increasing its allocation.The report concludes that in the next phase, more attractive token assets will simultaneously feature "revenue accrual mechanisms" and "supply release structures linked to protocol performance." However, the current market remains in the early stages of structural repair.
Aave
based
Bitcoin
Company
DAO
DAOMaker