Morgan Stanley: CPO Growth Overestimated by 30 Times, Only 23k Units in 2026

According to Chaoxiang Research, Morgan Stanley's latest CPO report indicates a significant divergence between market expectations for CPO and actual shipments, with only 23k units expected in 2026, whereas prior market expectations were generally above 200k. The core bottleneck lies in TSMC's PIC capacity ramp-up (10→25kwpm) and the 20-50% yield dilemma. This expectation gap will directly impact core targets such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, and TSMC. The report also downgraded TSMC's CoWoS capacity forecast (2027 45→40kwpm), and AllRing's 53% growth expectation faces significant risks. Optical companies such as Lumentum and Coherent are expected to contribute less than 1% to CPO in 2026-2027. In terms of the A-share market, Tfc Communication, SMIC, and Eoptolink are largely absent from core links in the CPO supply chain, with limited relevance to the concepts hyped by the market. Morgan Stanley advises investors to remain cautious before the potential "disappointing quarterly report" in Q2 2027.