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Bitcoin Faces $11 Billion Options Expiry, With US Midterm Elections Set to Amplify Market Volatility
Odaily Report: Approximately $11 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire on October 30, accounting for about one-third of Deribit's total open interest in Bitcoin options. Coupled with the approaching US midterm elections on November 3, the market may face greater volatility.Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark on Monday this week and has since hovered around that level, trading at approximately $81,100 in the Singapore market on Thursday. Among the soon-to-expire options, call options outnumber put options, with strike prices concentrated at $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 — contracts at these levels are likely to expire worthless in the short term. Meanwhile, approximately 70% of the expiring options' Gamma is concentrated in the $75,000 to $82,000 range. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, noted that if market makers hold short positions, their hedging activities could accelerate Bitcoin's decline below the $75,000 to $78,000 range; if they hold long positions, it could cushion the downside.Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, pointed out that some option sellers may wait until after the US midterm elections on November 3 to establish new positions, resulting in a lack of常规 Gamma supply to buffer price fluctuations. Volatility could increase further around the announcement of election results.Additionally, the battle for congressional control could also affect the Trump administration's ability to advance crypto-friendly policies. A Bloomberg Market Pulse survey shows that if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress, the median year-end Bitcoin price forecast is $90,800; if Democrats control both chambers, it is $76,450; and if Congress is split between the two parties, it is $84,100. Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, expects that after market volatility hit historic lows over the past year, Bitcoin market volatility in November may rebound significantly. (Bloomberg)
Bitcoin Volatility Hits New Cycle Low, Analysts Warn "Low Volatility Does Not Equal Low Risk"
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has fallen to the 36% long-term support bottom, with prices trading in a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, warned that in a low-volatility environment, declining trading costs actually attract traders to establish large-scale directional bets and hedge positions. Once the market breaks through key levels, market makers' passive hedging will accelerate price volatility, leading to a mean-reverting rebound in volatility. Regarding market sentiment, Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, pointed out that current demand for put options has significantly weakened, but call option buying is also absent—Glassnode describes this as "no one is paying for upside, and no one is paying for downside," believing this is typically a signal that the market is approaching a cycle bottom. The divergence in price trends between DOGE and BTC also confirms the continued absence of speculative sentiment. Howard stated that the next significant catalyst could be institutional ETF fund inflows driven by positive regulatory developments such as the Clarity Act, while a breakdown in Strait of Hormuz negotiations and inflation shocks constitute major downside risks.
Bitcoin Volatility Hits New Cycle Low, Analysts Warn "Low Volatility Does Not Equal Low Risk"
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has fallen to the 36% long-term support bottom, with prices trading in a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, warned that in a low-volatility environment, declining trading costs actually attract traders to establish large-scale directional bets and hedge positions. Once the market breaks through key levels, market makers' passive hedging will accelerate price volatility, leading to a mean-reverting rebound in volatility. Regarding market sentiment, Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, pointed out that current demand for put options has significantly weakened, but call option buying is also absent—Glassnode describes this as "no one is paying for upside, and no one is paying for downside," believing this is typically a signal that the market is approaching a cycle bottom. The divergence in price trends between DOGE and BTC also confirms the continued absence of speculative sentiment. Howard stated that the next significant catalyst could be institutional ETF fund inflows driven by positive regulatory developments such as the Clarity Act, while a breakdown in Strait of Hormuz negotiations and inflation shocks constitute major downside risks.
Bitcoin's "Silent Bear Market" Continues, Posting Worst Weekly Performance Since FTX Collapse
Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 last week, recording its worst single-week performance since the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022. In the seven days through Sunday, Bitcoin accumulated a decline of 16%, retreating over 50% from its all-time high of over $126,000 in 2025.Multiple market analysts have warned that the current rebound may be difficult to sustain, and Bitcoin may not have reached the bottom of this cycle yet. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, stated that the market is still "a considerable distance" from a "true bottom."Data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with total outflows reaching approximately $5.5 billion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin last week fell below the 200-week moving average, widely regarded as a key support level, further weakening market confidence. Paul Howard, a senior executive at crypto trading firm Wincent, described the current market conditions as a "silent bear market," arguing that breaking below the 200-week moving average is a significant confirmation signal that the market has entered a bear phase.Analysts point out that the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, the reversal of expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and strong U.S. employment data are driving the market to reassess the rate path. A high-interest-rate environment is unfavorable for the performance of risk assets, including crypto assets. Additionally, some capital is flowing out of the crypto market into artificial intelligence and technology stock sectors.Despite this, the magnitude of the current correction is still smaller than historical bear market cycles. In past bear markets, Bitcoin typically retraced about 80% from its peak, whereas this cycle's decline is approximately 50%. Some traders believe that if the macroeconomic environment continues to deteriorate and companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin face financing pressures, the market still faces further downside risks in the future. (Bloomberg)
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Bitcoin Faces $11 Billion Options Expiry, With US Midterm Elections Set to Amplify Market Volatility
Odaily Report: Approximately $11 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire on October 30, accounting for about one-third of Deribit's total open interest in Bitcoin options. Coupled with the approaching US midterm elections on November 3, the market may face greater volatility.Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark on Monday this week and has since hovered around that level, trading at approximately $81,100 in the Singapore market on Thursday. Among the soon-to-expire options, call options outnumber put options, with strike prices concentrated at $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 — contracts at these levels are likely to expire worthless in the short term. Meanwhile, approximately 70% of the expiring options' Gamma is concentrated in the $75,000 to $82,000 range. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, noted that if market makers hold short positions, their hedging activities could accelerate Bitcoin's decline below the $75,000 to $78,000 range; if they hold long positions, it could cushion the downside.Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, pointed out that some option sellers may wait until after the US midterm elections on November 3 to establish new positions, resulting in a lack of常规 Gamma supply to buffer price fluctuations. Volatility could increase further around the announcement of election results.Additionally, the battle for congressional control could also affect the Trump administration's ability to advance crypto-friendly policies. A Bloomberg Market Pulse survey shows that if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress, the median year-end Bitcoin price forecast is $90,800; if Democrats control both chambers, it is $76,450; and if Congress is split between the two parties, it is $84,100. Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, expects that after market volatility hit historic lows over the past year, Bitcoin market volatility in November may rebound significantly. (Bloomberg)
Bitcoin Volatility Hits New Cycle Low, Analysts Warn "Low Volatility Does Not Equal Low Risk"
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has fallen to the 36% long-term support bottom, with prices trading in a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, warned that in a low-volatility environment, declining trading costs actually attract traders to establish large-scale directional bets and hedge positions. Once the market breaks through key levels, market makers' passive hedging will accelerate price volatility, leading to a mean-reverting rebound in volatility. Regarding market sentiment, Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, pointed out that current demand for put options has significantly weakened, but call option buying is also absent—Glassnode describes this as "no one is paying for upside, and no one is paying for downside," believing this is typically a signal that the market is approaching a cycle bottom. The divergence in price trends between DOGE and BTC also confirms the continued absence of speculative sentiment. Howard stated that the next significant catalyst could be institutional ETF fund inflows driven by positive regulatory developments such as the Clarity Act, while a breakdown in Strait of Hormuz negotiations and inflation shocks constitute major downside risks.
Bitcoin's "Silent Bear Market" Continues, Posting Worst Weekly Performance Since FTX Collapse
Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 last week, recording its worst single-week performance since the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022. In the seven days through Sunday, Bitcoin accumulated a decline of 16%, retreating over 50% from its all-time high of over $126,000 in 2025.Multiple market analysts have warned that the current rebound may be difficult to sustain, and Bitcoin may not have reached the bottom of this cycle yet. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, stated that the market is still "a considerable distance" from a "true bottom."Data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with total outflows reaching approximately $5.5 billion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin last week fell below the 200-week moving average, widely regarded as a key support level, further weakening market confidence. Paul Howard, a senior executive at crypto trading firm Wincent, described the current market conditions as a "silent bear market," arguing that breaking below the 200-week moving average is a significant confirmation signal that the market has entered a bear phase.Analysts point out that the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, the reversal of expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and strong U.S. employment data are driving the market to reassess the rate path. A high-interest-rate environment is unfavorable for the performance of risk assets, including crypto assets. Additionally, some capital is flowing out of the crypto market into artificial intelligence and technology stock sectors.Despite this, the magnitude of the current correction is still smaller than historical bear market cycles. In past bear markets, Bitcoin typically retraced about 80% from its peak, whereas this cycle's decline is approximately 50%. Some traders believe that if the macroeconomic environment continues to deteriorate and companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin face financing pressures, the market still faces further downside risks in the future. (Bloomberg)