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Odaily Report: Approximately $11 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire on October 30, accounting for about one-third of Deribit's total open interest in Bitcoin options. Coupled with the approaching US midterm elections on November 3, the market may face greater volatility.Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark on Monday this week and has since hovered around that level, trading at approximately $81,100 in the Singapore market on Thursday. Among the soon-to-expire options, call options outnumber put options, with strike prices concentrated at $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 — contracts at these levels are likely to expire worthless in the short term. Meanwhile, approximately 70% of the expiring options' Gamma is concentrated in the $75,000 to $82,000 range. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, noted that if market makers hold short positions, their hedging activities could accelerate Bitcoin's decline below the $75,000 to $78,000 range; if they hold long positions, it could cushion the downside.Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, pointed out that some option sellers may wait until after the US midterm elections on November 3 to establish new positions, resulting in a lack of常规 Gamma supply to buffer price fluctuations. Volatility could increase further around the announcement of election results.Additionally, the battle for congressional control could also affect the Trump administration's ability to advance crypto-friendly policies. A Bloomberg Market Pulse survey shows that if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress, the median year-end Bitcoin price forecast is $90,800; if Democrats control both chambers, it is $76,450; and if Congress is split between the two parties, it is $84,100. Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, expects that after market volatility hit historic lows over the past year, Bitcoin market volatility in November may rebound significantly. (Bloomberg)
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has fallen to the 36% long-term support bottom, with prices trading in a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, warned that in a low-volatility environment, declining trading costs actually attract traders to establish large-scale directional bets and hedge positions. Once the market breaks through key levels, market makers' passive hedging will accelerate price volatility, leading to a mean-reverting rebound in volatility. Regarding market sentiment, Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, pointed out that current demand for put options has significantly weakened, but call option buying is also absent—Glassnode describes this as "no one is paying for upside, and no one is paying for downside," believing this is typically a signal that the market is approaching a cycle bottom. The divergence in price trends between DOGE and BTC also confirms the continued absence of speculative sentiment. Howard stated that the next significant catalyst could be institutional ETF fund inflows driven by positive regulatory developments such as the Clarity Act, while a breakdown in Strait of Hormuz negotiations and inflation shocks constitute major downside risks.