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Odaily News比特币 rose to its highest level since May before the US market opened on Friday, briefly touching $79,400 during trading before hovering around $78,000, just one step away from the key resistance level of $80,000. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $606 million on Thursday, the highest level since May 1, boosting market risk appetite.James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, stated that this rally is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors rather than factors within the crypto market itself, noting that Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations and real yields. Previously, US inflation data came in below expectations, employment data weakened, and the US Treasury announced measures to push down long-term Treasury yields, all of which drove risk assets higher.Butterfill pointed out that $80,000 is an important demarcation line for Bitcoin at present. To form an effective breakout, the market needs further confirmation that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is shifting toward easing, with related signals potentially released at next week's Jackson Hole symposium.However, he also cautioned that if inflation remains persistently high or the dollar weakens, the Fed may be forced to adopt a more cautious policy. Additionally, the scale of accumulation by large holders remains relatively limited, and the market still lacks strong confidence to support a sustained breakout. Going forward, US spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows and macroeconomic data performance will serve as key indicators for judging the sustainability of the trend. (CoinDesk)
QCP reported that Bitcoin's rise is linked to declining US long-term Treasury yields and a weakening US dollar, following the US Treasury's announcement to expand the scale of its long-term Treasury liquidity support repurchase agreements starting September 9. Markets will now focus on the US July PCE data on August 26, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium from August 27 to 29, and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on September 15–16. QCP believes that the key factor for the current cryptocurrency market is whether spot demand can sustain itself following initial position adjustments, particularly amid the backdrop of rising leverage.
Odaily News, Garrett Jin, proxy for the "BTC OG Insider Whale," analyzed that Bitcoin's latest breakout above $70,000 was driven by multiple bullish factors, including the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buybacks, the SEC's proposed crypto asset regulatory framework, and the White House crypto summit. The current price has entered a dense overhead supply zone ranging from the mid-$60,000s to the low $80,000s, with the first resistance layer already showing signs of weakening.Garrett Jin pointed out that the significant accumulation of new cost basis in the mid-$60,000 area over the past two months has provided underlying support for this breakout. While the short-squeeze triggered by short liquidations could temporarily push Bitcoin above $80,000 in the near term, the $80,000 to $82,500 range is a critical resistance zone to watch, and the short-squeeze momentum is unlikely to persist. If the market can effectively absorb supply below $80,000 before a breakout, it would be more conducive to a healthier subsequent trend.On the same day, SK Hynix announced South Korea's largest-ever stock buyback and cancellation plan, committing to return at least 50% of its projected free cash flow through 2027 to shareholders. Its shares surged over 10% at one point, triggering a buy-side circuit breaker on South Korea's KOSPI index. Analysts believe this move could alleviate market concerns over declining risk appetite for Korean semiconductor stocks, but it cannot alter the cyclical trajectory of the memory chip industry itself.
Odaily News - Bitcoin extended its gains on Wednesday and climbed above $72,000 on Thursday, reaching its highest level since June 1.Market analysis suggests that the recent rally is primarily driven by easing pressure in the U.S. Treasury market. The White House's earlier signals of support for Treasury market stability alleviated investor concerns over bond market volatility. However, the longer-term trajectory still depends on changes in Federal Reserve liquidity policy.Analyst Pedro Fontes noted that if the world's largest debt market requires policy support to maintain stable operation, it would further strengthen demand for assets that are scarce, predictable, and not reliant on government debt expansion—characteristics that Bitcoin aligns with. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.88% to 98.77 yesterday, hitting a fresh low since May.Strive Founder and CEO Matt Cole stated that the dollar index has been in a long-term "structural downtrend," and a weaker dollar could create a more favorable investment environment for assets like Bitcoin. Markets will continue to monitor the White House's further remarks on the bond market, shifts in geopolitical conditions, and U.S. initial jobless claims data today, as these factors could influence Treasury yields and market liquidity expectations. (CoinDesk)
According to Cointelegraph, Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick pointed out in the latest client report that the U.S. Treasury announced the scale of 10- to 30-year Treasury bond buybacks will be at least doubled from $2 billion per operation to $4 billion, with an execution period from September 9 to November 4. This policy drove long-term U.S. Treasury yields down significantly, effectively alleviating selling pressure in the bond market. Kendrick stated that such government liquidity interventions have historically been bullish for Bitcoin, and coupled with its fixed supply attribute, BTC is expected to hit $100,000 before the end of the year. Technically, he views $65,500 as a key support level; once effectively broken above, it can confirm that the bottom of this cycle has appeared.
Odaily News – Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that Bitcoin (BTC) could rise to $100,000 by the end of 2026 as the U.S. Treasury expands liquidity support for the long-term bond market.In a recent client report, Kendrick noted that Bitcoin's current key technical resistance level is $65,500. If the price breaks through this level, it could signal that the cyclical low for this market cycle has already formed. He suggested investors begin positioning for a Bitcoin rally to $100,000 by year-end. Kendrick stated that beyond the four-year cycle pattern for Bitcoin, which suggests the market may be nearing a bottom, the U.S. Treasury's recent announcement to expand long-term bond buybacks is also a significant catalyst.The U.S. Treasury plans to raise the cap on buyback operations for 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year Treasury bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The expanded program is scheduled to be implemented from September 9 to November 4. Following the announcement, yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries notably declined, easing the pressure that the significant sell-off in the bond market had placed on financial markets.Kendrick believes the Treasury's expanded bond buybacks represent a "favorable environment for Bitcoin," as Bitcoin has previously benefited multiple times from government liquidity interventions, while its fixed supply mechanism gives it properties that hedge against currency debasement. In the market, Bitcoin rose over 6% on Wednesday, briefly approaching $69,000, marking its highest level since early June. Kendrick has previously been repeatedly bullish on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, arguing that as global fiscal pressures increase and monetary policy trends toward easing, Bitcoin may enter a new long-term upward cycle. (Cointelegraph)
According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Yu Jin, influenced by news of the U.S. increasing the scale of long-term Treasury bond repurchases, both the U.S. stock pre-market and the crypto market saw gains. He pointed out that a Bitcoin short whale who was recently liquidated is again approaching the liquidation threshold. The Bitcoin short positions held are valued at approximately $93.24 million, with a liquidation price of $65,045, about $200 away from the current price.
Odaily News, U.S. Treasury Department data shows that foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell to $9.299 trillion in June from $9.371 trillion in May, a decrease of approximately $72 billion month-over-month, mainly driven by reductions from Japan, the UK, and China, but still up 2.3% year-over-year.Among them, Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell 2.3% month-over-month to $1.116 trillion in June, remaining the largest overseas holder; the UK's holdings fell 1% to $939.9 billion. In June, net capital inflows on a transaction basis into U.S. Treasuries were only $6.8 billion, down from $56.6 billion in May. (Reuters)
: Goldman Sachs analyst Robert Kaplan said the Fed's decision not to raise interest rates in July was "absolutely" correct, urging policymakers to keep an open mind ahead of September, citing the complex factors affecting inflation and warning that rigid forward guidance could be counterproductive. Kaplan noted: "If we see meaningful improvement, I might be willing to continue holding, but I want to make full use of every moment before September to assess the situation, avoiding rigidity or preconceived notions."Kaplan believes the forces currently at play include: inflationary pressures from AI infrastructure build-out, tariffs, labor constraints, and surging oil prices; meanwhile, AI applications are working in the opposite direction, accelerating the trend of disinflation. He suggested that Warsh should use his speech at this month's Jackson Hole symposium to briefly explain the Fed's reasoning for holding steady in July, rather than delivering a purely "philosophical" address. Kaplan said he is more concerned about the long end of U.S. Treasury yields than the federal funds rate itself. He noted that the rebound in long-term government bond yields globally reflects structural supply-demand imbalances driven by persistent wide fiscal deficits, rather than Fed policy. (Jin Shi)
Odaily News: Gurinder Singh Josan, Co-Chair of the UK Parliamentary Crypto and Digital Assets All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG), along with Lord Vaizey of Didcot, has written to the CEOs of all major UK banks, demanding clarification on how they treat crypto and digital asset businesses. The letter raises six questions covering banks' current policies, whether they provide services to crypto businesses, related transaction restrictions and the factors determining them, and asks whether practices will be adjusted once the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regulatory regime takes effect. The group noted that many crypto businesses struggle to open bank accounts in the UK, with some banks also restricting related payments. The letter stems from a parliamentary inquiry into banking service access launched on July 21, with written submissions open until August 31. A January survey by the UK Cryptoasset Business Council estimated that banks block or delay around 40% of transactions to crypto exchanges. HSBC, NatWest, Monzo, and Nationwide cap monthly transfers to crypto exchanges at between £5,000 and £10,000, while Starling and Chase UK prohibit such transfers altogether. UK Treasury Economic Secretary Lucy Rigby stated that the government does not want FCA-licensed firms to face banking restrictions solely because of their industry; the FCA completed related rules in June, with the regime becoming mandatory in October 2027. (Decrypt)
Odaily News: South Africa's National Treasury and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) have released draft rules on cross-border transfers of crypto assets. Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of crypto exchange VALR, stated that without significant amendments to key provisions, the framework could harm the country's digital asset industry and drive capital offshore. The draft rules allow individual residents to transfer crypto assets abroad within existing foreign exchange limits but restrict corporates from conducting cross-border crypto transactions, while also classifying certain inbound transfers from private, non-custodial self-hosted wallets as unacceptable transfers for local crypto asset service providers (CASPs). Ehsani believes this could push both businesses and retail users toward overseas platforms. Ehsani noted that prohibiting regulated entities from handling legitimate corporate transactions—particularly cross-border stablecoin payments—could drive such activity underground or offshore, ultimately undermining the transaction visibility and monitoring capabilities regulators aim to achieve. South Africa's National Treasury and SARB have opened a public consultation period, with feedback due by September 30.
Odaily News: U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, significantly missing market expectations. Although seasonal factors and the fading of the World Cup dividend disrupted the data, this still notably weakens the Federal Reserve's momentum for a September rate hike, shifting market focus to next week's CPI.Despite the "dismal" surface data, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon is actually attributed to a cumulative 0.7 percentage point decline in the labor force participation rate since the beginning of the year.Analysts are divided in their interpretation of this "terrible" report. Thomas Ryan, Senior Economist at Capital Economics, stated bluntly that although the current weakness has not yet shown up in broader indicators, it is sufficient to prompt Fed officials to reassess the health of the labor market and reduce their willingness to further tighten monetary policy in the near term.In the face of this report, which Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, called "extremely terrible," the capital markets demonstrated typical contrarian logic. As traders bet that the rate hike process would stop here, U.S. stock futures rose accordingly, and Treasury yields collectively declined. According to data from CME Group's tools, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike has rapidly fallen from 55% on Thursday to 44%.
Odaily News: Bitcoin's volatility has recently neared zero, but market risks have not been resolved. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have not seen any outflows in the first week of August, with cumulative net inflows of approximately $754 million. However, Bitcoin's price remains around $64,700, while the options market is heavily focused on downside protection near $62,000 and $63,000.Market signals are showing divergence: on one hand, demand for spot ETFs has picked up again; on the other hand, derivatives traders are positioning in advance for a potential pullback, especially ahead of the latest U.S. employment data release.However, looking at the overall positioning structure, the market still leans bullish. Bitcoin call options account for approximately 60.7% of total open interest, indicating that investors' long-term expectations remain positive, with recent trading more concentrated on short-term risk hedging. Meanwhile, the cost of volatility protection remains low. Deribit's DVOL index, which reflects Bitcoin's expected volatility over the next 30 days, is currently around 35—a significant drop from the high of 90 earlier this year—suggesting that the market sees limited potential for major swings in the short term.That said, U.S. macroeconomic data could break this balance. The market expects U.S. non-farm payrolls for July to increase by approximately 97,500, up from 57,000 in June, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.2%. If the employment data comes in stronger than expected, it could push U.S. Treasury yields higher and reinforce expectations of Fed rate hikes; if the data is weak, it could push yields down, but also heighten concerns about slowing economic growth.Currently, the Bitcoin market presents a pattern of "ETF inflows underpinning spot prices while the options market hedges against downside." Potential risks remain a concern in a low-volatility environment. With low market participation and insufficient liquidity, even small changes in supply or demand could trigger sharp swings in asset prices. (CoinDesk)
According to CryptoQuant on-chain data, total institutional BTC holdings, including trusts, ETFs, and closed-end funds, have decreased from 1.33 million BTC three months ago to 1.2 million BTC, a decline of approximately 10%. Meanwhile, the corporate Bitcoin treasury model is also facing pressure. Novaque Research analysts pointed out that the market cap of multiple Bitcoin treasury companies has currently fallen below the net asset value (NAV) of their BTC holdings, and the previous positive cycle mechanism of "stock price premium → financing to buy BTC → strengthening premium" has significantly weakened. The listed company with the largest holdings, Strategy, even sold 1,638 BTC last week.
Odaily News: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, stating that the cumulative trading volume of the Trump family-linked stablecoin USD1 on Binance has surpassed $50 billion. Data shows that since its launch over a year ago, USD1 has experienced rapid growth in trading scale. The stablecoin was launched by World Liberty Financial in March 2025, a project co-founded with the participation of the Trump family. USD1 is primarily backed by U.S. dollars and short-term U.S. Treasury assets, and adopts an institutional-oriented compliance framework. Currently, the market cap of USD1 has exceeded $4 billion.
According to official announcements, Ondo's tokenized U.S. Treasury yield note USDY (U.S. Dollar Yield Token) has now officially launched on BNB Chain, supporting instant minting/redemption and cross-chain bridging functionality. As a leading permissionless tokenized U.S. Treasury product, USDY's launch on BNB Chain, one of the largest and most active public chain ecosystems globally, marks the first time institutional-grade yield assets are accessible directly without permission. This launch is a significant step in USDY's multi-chain expansion, bringing yield-bearing USD asset exposure to millions of users and AI agents within BNB Chain's deep DeFi ecosystem, and achieving a dual improvement in capital efficiency and transaction speed through instant minting and redemption mechanisms. Users no longer need to bridge from other chains to directly hold yield assets backed by U.S. Treasuries within the BNB Chain native environment; for developers, USDY can also serve as high-quality collateral in on-chain lending, trading, and liquidity protocols, seamlessly integrating with BNB Chain native applications.
According to the market weekly report released by market maker Wintermute (@wintermute_t), the macro and crypto markets experienced multiple shocks over the past week: On the macro level, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% with a 9-3 vote. Officials Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan rarely voted together to support a 25bp rate hike, marking dissent at the second meeting since Chairman Warsh took office. The 30-year US Treasury yield once touched 5.24%, hitting a new high since July 2007, while the 10-year yielded 4.67%. The yield curve bear-steepened, indicating market doubts about the Federal Reserve's inflation credibility. On the stock market level, AI leveraged fund Situational Awareness (under Leopold Aschenbrenner) encountered margin calls due to leverage as high as 400%. Its size plummeted from $45 billion in early July to about $10 billion, forced to sell all public positions to Citadel at a discount. Long positions in AI infrastructure such as SK Hynix and CoreWeave fell sharply, partially explaining the reason for the continuous decline in chip stocks in July. On the crypto level, BTC fell 2.84% weekly and ETH fell 3.63% weekly, but Wintermute believes major sellers are nearly exhausted, and the painful trade direction has turned upward. ETH has outperformed BTC for two consecutive months,
Odaily News, July saw the U.S. manufacturing PMI rise to 55.6, the highest since 2022, with both production and employment recovering. However, strong demand and geopolitical inflation concerns have roiled the bond market, with Bank of America warning that the Federal Reserve is facing a credibility test. The hot manufacturing performance, coupled with geopolitical inflation threats, has sent U.S. Treasury markets into sharp turbulence. Long-dated Treasuries have recently faced heavy selling, with yields briefly surging to near two-decade highs.Mark Cabana, Head of U.S. Rates Strategy at Bank of America, commented on this, calling the bond market's violent swings a "textbook inflation credibility shock."Cabana noted that the core driver of the market turmoil is not the data itself, but the Fed's lack of policy communication. He specifically pointed to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's performance at a recent press conference, arguing that Warsh failed to clearly articulate how the Fed would achieve its 2% inflation target."Standing firm on the inflation target is one thing, but if you don't tell the market the specific path, investors won't buy it," Cabana said bluntly in a Bloomberg TV interview. "The bond market cannot be fooled; it sees through all appearances." (Jin10)
According to an official media announcement, the South African National Treasury and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) jointly released the "Draft Manual on Cross-Border Crypto Asset Activities" on August 3, 2026, which is now open for public consultation with a deadline of September 30, 2026. The manual is implemented in conjunction with the previously released "Draft Regulations on Capital Flow Management 2026," aiming to strengthen supervision over cross-border financial activities and prevent risks related to illicit financial flows associated with crypto assets. The manual clarifies the trigger points for cross-border crypto asset transactions—when crypto assets are transferred between a domestic authorized CASP and a foreign CASP, or from a domestic authorized CASP to a non-custodial wallet, it constitutes cross-border capital inflow or outflow and must be reported to the Financial Supervision Department (FinSurv). It is worth noting that at this stage, only individuals are allowed to conduct crypto asset outflow operations through authorized CASPs within the single discretionary allowance or foreign capital allowance; South African entities are temporarily not allowed to conduct related cross-border operations. In addition, the manual currently does not distinguish between different types of crypto assets, nor does it list crypto assets as official South African currency.
Odaily News: Major cryptocurrencies moved lower on Monday, with Bitcoin briefly falling to around $62,800 and Ether dropping to $1,858. Although expectations related to the geopolitical situation had improved earlier, the market failed to sustain a rebound. Following the expansion of the Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability, approximately 1,367 BTC flowed out of roughly 4,585 addresses, valued at nearly $89 million, occurring across three rounds of attacks. The market's weakness stood in contrast to falling crude oil prices, a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields, and gains in stock index futures.