News linked to both this project and an event.
The latest U.S. data shows that foreign investors collectively reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities in March 2026, with total holdings declining from $9.49 trillion in February to $9.25 trillion. Japan reduced its holdings by approximately $47 billion that month, bringing its total to $1.191 trillion; the United Kingdom, meanwhile, increased its holdings by about $29.6 billion, raising its total to $926.9 billion. The report notes that the U.S.-Iran conflict drove up oil prices and inflation expectations, prompting central banks in multiple countries to sell dollar-denominated assets to stabilize their exchange rates—thereby accelerating the sell-off of U.S. Treasuries. During the same period, foreign investors incurred an estimated valuation loss of approximately $142.1 billion on their long-term U.S. Treasury holdings.
According to chart analysis released by independent analyst Markus Thielen on May 19, the current market capitalization of USDT has reached $189.8 billion, while that of USDC stands at $76.9 billion—both exhibiting long-term upward trends. However, since Bitcoin entered a correction phase in October last year, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has remained largely flat, indicating relatively limited inflows of new capital into the crypto market. Thielen noted that although there is a widespread belief that stablecoins will fully replace traditional payment networks, their primary use cases remain concentrated on crypto trading and portfolio management—still far from achieving mainstream payment adoption. While U.S. policy broadly supports stablecoin development—partly because their reserve assets are often reallocated into U.S. Treasury securities—the gap between current usage and true mainstream payment application remains substantial.
Odaily released the latest analysis chart indicating that Ethereum's recent price movements are increasingly dominated by ETF fund flows. Over the past year, the 30-day moving average of daily net inflows for ETH ETFs has been highly synchronized with ETH's price performance, showing a marked increase in Ethereum's sensitivity to institutional fund flows.BIT points out that one of Ethereum's current core narratives is its net staking yield of approximately 2.5%. However, against the backdrop of accelerating inflation again and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising above 4.6%, Ethereum's staking yield advantage is weakening compared to risk-free assets like U.S. Treasuries.Furthermore, ETF outflows from Ethereum have resumed since May. BIT believes that if this trend continues, Ethereum is likely to maintain a consolidation and range-bound trajectory.
According to chart analysis released by independent analyst Markus Thielen on May 18, the 30-day moving average of daily net inflows into ETH ETFs over the past year has been highly synchronized with Ethereum’s price movement, making institutional fund flows a core driver of ETH’s price. However, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rise above 4.6% and inflation accelerates again, Ethereum’s ~2.5% net staking yield is losing appeal relative to risk-free assets. Since May, ETH ETFs have seen renewed net outflows; if this trend persists, Ethereum’s price is highly likely to remain in a range-bound consolidation pattern.
Bitcoin has fallen below the $77,000 mark, hitting a low of approximately $76,720. Analysts attribute the market decline primarily to multiple macroeconomic pressures, including the renewed escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, rising inflation concerns, and increased risk aversion across risk assets. Former US President Donald Trump issued a strong warning to Iran on social media, intensifying geopolitical uncertainty.Meanwhile, rising oil prices have further elevated inflation expectations, with Brent crude climbing to around $111 and WTI rising above $107. This has sparked concerns that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.The current selling pressure is also compounded by factors such as rising US Treasury yields, a strengthening US dollar, and ETF outflows. Data shows that Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1 billion in the week ending May 17, ending six consecutive weeks of net inflows.In terms of market sentiment, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has fallen back to 27, re-entering the "fear zone." Analysts believe that short-term trends will remain highly dependent on macroeconomic data and policy expectations. However, some institutions view the current correction as a "healthy digestion" period, suggesting the long-term structure remains unchanged. (The Block)
crypto research firm 10x Research stated that since the release of US CPI data on May 13th, Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows exceeding $1 billion, reigniting "inflation trade" sentiment in the market. Market sentiment indicators have dropped from 87% to 45%. Meanwhile, long-term US Treasury yields continue to climb, with the 30-year yield rising to 5.12%. As inflation returns to the forefront of market focus, the crypto market is facing significant headwinds.Furthermore, 10x Research noted that its models have triggered bearish signals for Ethereum, and Bitcoin is currently testing the key support level of its 30-day moving average. A confirmed breakdown below this level could signal further momentum deterioration. The firm is closely watching the short-term bull/bear line at $79,125 and the major support level at $76,922, suggesting that the bottom for this cycle may have already formed.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin has recently attempted to break above the $82,000 level three times—but each time failed and retreated. Data shows that during each rally, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1.0 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are consistently taking profits amid upward price movements rather than holding onto their positions. Axel Adler notes that $82,000 is not only a key technical resistance level but also a significant zone of selling pressure from a market-behavior perspective. Currently, this level coincides with Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (200D SMA). Until the 7-day SMA of STH-SOPR sustains above 1.0 for several consecutive days—and until Bitcoin’s daily closing price decisively breaks above its 200-day SMA—the ongoing rally may still be viewed as a selling opportunity. On the macro front, escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to dampen market risk appetite. Fueled by the Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and expectations of “higher-for-longer” interest rates, U.S. equities closed lower across the board on Friday. WTI crude oil futures surged over 4%, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to approximately 4.6%, hitting a year-to-date high.
Bitcoin slumped shortly after the US stock market opened, briefly breaking below the $79,000 mark, with a daily decline of approximately 3%, trading near its lowest level since May. Market consensus suggests this pullback is closely linked to the sell-off in risk assets triggered by a surge in US Treasury yields.Data shows that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose above 4.55%, reaching its highest level in nearly a year, fueling concerns over tightening liquidity and a reassessment of risk assets. Analysts point out that this level previously triggered adjustments in US stocks and policy expectations last year, and is now once again serving as a key pressure signal.Trading firm The Kobeissi Letter stated that the "panic-driven rally" in the bond market is intensifying, with expectations for prolonged high interest rates growing. The market has begun pricing in the possibility of further rate hikes in the future, quickly cooling the previous "euphoria" in risk assets.From a technical perspective, analysts believe that after encountering multiple rejections from resistance above $82,000, Bitcoin's support structure is weakening. In the short term, it may retest the $75,000–$77,000 range, as the market enters a phase of range-bound trading and directional selection. (Cointelegraph)
According to Odaily, Bitcoin's price is hovering around $80,350, up a slight 0.8% in the short term, facing sustained pressure after multiple failed attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level. This zone is considered a confluence of resistance from the ETF cost basis, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap fill area.Although the US CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive expectations for crypto regulation, institutional capital continues to withdraw. Data shows that the 7-day average net outflow from US spot Bitcoin ETFs has fallen to -$88 million per day, the largest outflow scale since mid-February. Analysts suggest this selling pressure is more driven by "profit-taking" than panic selling.On the macro front, rising US Treasury yields are a core source of pressure. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has climbed to approximately 4.52%, a 10-month high. Meanwhile, the April CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, the highest level in three years, further pushing back market expectations for a Fed rate cut. Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, thereby weakening the appeal of risk assets.From an institutional perspective, some analysts believe the current ETF outflows represent portfolio rebalancing rather than a structural retreat. The options market indicates significant resistance for Bitcoin in the $82,000-$84,000 range, while $77,000 stands as a key support level. If the price breaks below this zone without a cooling of leverage, the market could enter a deleveraging phase, increasing the risk of a correction. (Decrypt)
: Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that although Bitcoin rebounded after falling from around $125,000 to $60,000, the current trend remains a "repair after decline" and has not yet been confirmed as entering a new bull market cycle.He pointed out that from an on-chain data perspective, multiple key indicators have not yet entered the historical bear market bottom range. This includes the "Supply in Loss" and 90-day UTXO-related metrics, which have not yet shown a sufficient cyclical bottom structure. Meanwhile, the "LTH Realized Supply" has also not displayed the typical accumulation pattern seen at the end of a bear market, indicating that the market has not yet entered a deep reallocation phase.Additionally, spot selling pressure indicators have not shown obvious "capitulation selling", suggesting that a typical comprehensive market cleansing has not occurred during this decline. Axel Adler Jr believes that before improvements are seen simultaneously in on-chain structure, spot demand, and supply pressure, the current upward move is more likely a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, he pointed out that the global risk environment remains tight. The conflict between the US and Iran has pushed Brent crude oil close to $100 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressure. Consumer confidence and financial health indices are weakening, indicating pressure on the demand side. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain high, with real interest rates and inflation expectations rising concurrently, further suppressing risk asset valuations.He also mentioned that the leadership of the US Federal Reserve is about to enter a potential transition phase, but the interest rate market is no longer pricing in rapid rate cuts and has even begun to price in the probability of rate hikes. Market expectations have clearly shifted towards "higher for longer". In an environment of high oil prices, high interest rates, and uncertain monetary policy, overall financial conditions remain tight.Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market needs to wait for clearer on-chain bottom structures and signs of demand-side recovery. Until then, he maintains a cautious stance on the market outlook.
Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins), Head of Research at Galaxy Research, published a post revealing that Galaxy Research has released a new report refuting banking industry claims that the GENIUS Act would erode U.S. bank deposits—and providing quantitative estimates. Key findings from the report include: - Under the GENIUS Act framework, 60%–70% of new stablecoin issuance would originate overseas; inflows of foreign deposits would be approximately twice the volume of domestic deposit migration—indicating a net increase in total deposits rather than a zero-sum reallocation. - Each newly minted GENIUS stablecoin would generate approximately $0.32 in net credit for the U.S. economy. - In the base-case scenario, total credit expansion by 2030 would reach roughly $400 billion; under the optimistic scenario, it could reach $1.2 trillion. - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields (T-bills) would compress by 3–5 basis points, potentially saving taxpayers up to $3 billion annually in borrowing costs. - The report also notes that the interest pass-through mechanism does not pose an existential threat to U.S. banks—it merely represents a reallocation of profit margins and will not reduce overall credit capacity.
Bitcoin briefly approached the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $83,300 on Wednesday but failed to achieve a decisive breakout, subsequently falling back below $81,000. Meanwhile, the broader crypto market weakened, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Index falling over 2% in the past 24 hours, making it the worst-performing major sector. The 200-day moving average is widely regarded by the market as a key indicator for measuring long-term trends. If BTC can hold above this level, it would further reinforce the market narrative that the bear market, which saw prices fall below $63,000 in February, has ended and a new bull market has begun.However, a similar situation occurred historically in March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly broke above and tested the 200-day moving average before ultimately falling to around $20,000 by June of that year. As a result, some analysts are warning of the risk of a "fakeout."Analytics firm Marex stated that Bitcoin's ability to continue its upward trajectory depends on three factors: sustained spot buying pressure, a continued tightening of exchange supply, and a derivatives market that remains healthy without overheating. If all three factors align positively, Bitcoin could quickly open up the path towards the $85,000 range. Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, noted that this pullback appears more like a brief consolidation within an uptrend rather than an end to the trend. However, he also cautioned that the daily RSI had previously entered overbought territory, and similar instances in the past were accompanied by significant corrections.Additionally, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen to 4.32% from its early-month high of 4.46%, which is viewed as a potential positive factor for risk assets. (CoinDesk)
Odaily reports, State Street, in partnership with Galaxy, has launched the on-chain liquidity fund SWEEP, allowing investors to "one-click transfer" stablecoins into yield-generating tokenized assets for 24/7 on-chain cash management.The fund will initially be deployed on Solana, with future plans to expand to Stellar and Ethereum, and integrate infrastructure such as Chainlink.Targeting qualified investors, SWEEP is positioned similarly to products like BlackRock's BUIDL, offering U.S. Treasury-like yields through an on-chain structure. It represents the latest exploration in the convergence of traditional asset management and blockchain technology.
After breaking above the critical 5% level for the first time since last July, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds hovered around 5% again early this week—indicating that pressure on the world’s largest bond market has not eased. This is a significant threshold, and traders are closely watching for signs it may rise further. At the heart of this sell-off is market concern that a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could fuel inflation and reduce the scope for interest-rate cuts. Additionally, massive corporate spending in the AI sector has raised concerns about a possible acceleration in near-term price increases. (Jin10)
According to The Block, Bernstein analysts stated in their latest report that the fundamentals of the crypto market are continuously improving. Bitcoin’s recent low of $60,000 has formed a clear bottom, and with the current price approaching $80,000, a longer-term structural bull market is likely, driven by institutional demand. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani highlighted the following key drivers: • Ongoing expansion of institutional channels: Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF and Charles Schwab’s spot Bitcoin/Ethereum trading platform have both recently launched; approximately 60% of Bitcoin supply has remained unmoved for over one year, indicating a stabilizing holder structure; • Persistent accumulation by Strategy: Its STRC perpetual preferred stock product has attracted yield-oriented investors, and its current holdings stand at 818,334 BTC; • Stablecoin demand hits an all-time high: Stablecoin supply has surpassed $30 billion, decoupling from the crypto market’s price cycle and reflecting sustained real-world payment and settlement demand; • Tokenized real-world assets accelerating growth: Tokenized private credit and Treasury assets now total $34.5 billion, representing a 110% year-on-year increase. Bernstein also cautioned that quantum computing poses a long-term potential risk, though it expects the blockchain ecosystem to have ample time to complete the transition to post-quantum security.
Odaily News Bitcoin rose to around $74,935 during Asian trading hours, gaining 0.7% in the past 24 hours and 5.4% for the week. However, the derivatives market is sending mixed signals. Institutional firm QCP Capital noted that this rally is primarily driven by spot buying, not a broad-based recovery in risk appetite. Currently, Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates remain negative, and open interest is declining, indicating that shorts are still adding hedges rather than being forced to liquidate.The options market also leans cautious: short-term implied volatility is subdued, with the one-month tenor lower than the three-month, and risk reversal indicators show market demand for downside protection exceeds that for upside bets, suggesting traders are more willing to pay for potential declines than to chase gains. QCP believes this looks more like a "rebound" than a trend reversal.On the macro front, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices have not confirmed a recovery in risk appetite. Gold remains near its highs, indicating persistent safe-haven demand. Institutions point out that the current market action is more of a "sentiment repair" driven by ceasefire expectations, rather than a resolution of core risks.Furthermore, Ethereum has shown relative strength, with the ETH/BTC ratio recovering to around 0.0315. Coupled with on-chain transaction volume and stablecoin supply reaching all-time highs, this suggests signs of capital rotation into higher-beta assets. However, the market still needs to observe the evolution of subsequent risk events to confirm the sustainability of this rally. (CoinDesk)