BIT: Fed Pause on Rate Hikes Could Mark the Start of a Q4 Crypto Rally
According to BIT's weekly "On Target" report, BIT analysts identify two key market catalysts: first, U.S. debt has surpassed the psychological threshold of $40 trillion, and second, U.S. Treasury yields are approaching the critical 5.0% level. Since July 24, Bitcoin has accumulated gains of 22% and gold has risen 9.4%, confirming earlier forecasts.
Macro cycle models indicate that the market is currently in the first phase of cyclical reflation, typically accompanied by a weakening U.S. dollar and rising commodity prices. Historical data indicates that during this phase:
• Annualized returns for U.S. equities at approximately 29%
• Annualized returns for gold at approximately 47%
• Annualized returns for Bitcoin at approximately 73%
Furthermore, between 2020 and 2026, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of U.S. debt has reached 8.59%, while the CAGR for M2 money supply stands at 6.02%, significantly outpacing the CPI's 4.11%. This sustained accumulation of long-term inflationary pressure further reinforces the allocation rationale for gold and Bitcoin.
