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According to BeInCrypto, Chainalysis data shows that over the year ending June 2026, the South African crypto economy expanded by 52% to $39.3 billion, with increases across all tracked activity categories. Commercial payments, including those from South African merchants and P2P traders, reached $8.34 billion, outpacing institutional activity ($1.29 billion in inflows); stablecoin inflows through Sub-Saharan African P2P channels totaled $14.6 billion, on par with Bitcoin. A draft regulatory framework for crypto asset management released by the South African Treasury and Reserve Bank (SARB) on August 3 would stipulate that individuals may only transfer crypto assets abroad through authorized local service providers within existing foreign exchange limits, while businesses are prohibited from cross-border transfers of crypto assets. As of March 31, the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) had issued licenses to 310 crypto asset service providers, though these entities must still secure separate authorization from the SARB. On October 21, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana stated that after receiving thousands of public submissions, the Treasury will aim to release a revised second draft, with no timeline currently announced.
During Friday's Asian session, the rally in US Treasuries accelerated as American tech stocks were sold off and investors turned to US government bonds for safety. Yields across all tenors of US Treasuries fell by at least 3 basis points, extending the downward trend from the New York session. Bonds in Australia, Japan, and New Zealand followed suit, with their respective benchmark 10-year government bond yields falling more than 5 basis points. Safe-haven sentiment heated up following disappointing earnings from tech giants like Alphabet, further fueling market skepticism regarding the sustainability of the AI trade. In October, yields on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury have fallen nearly 40 basis points, poised to record a first monthly decline since February.
According to Whale Alert, at 01:28 Beijing Time, 500 million USDT (worth approximately $500 million) was transferred from Tether Treasury to Binance.
According to QCP Capital market analysis reports, BTC fell below $80,000 over the weekend and is currently trading at the lower boundary of its recent range. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and ETF fund outflows later last week triggered leveraged long liquidations. QCP noted that the key variables this week are the FOMC meeting on Oct. 27-28 and earnings reports from major tech companies: Microsoft and Alphabet will report on Oct. 28, while Amazon will report on Oct. 29. Last week, Meta dropped 7% after raising its capital expenditure guidance, and the Nasdaq posted its worst single-day performance since June. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October and an approximately 84% probability in December. There will be no dot plot released with this meeting, and the market will focus on Fed Chair Walsh's press conference. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.96%. On the technical side, BTC support sits at $78,000, with resistance at $86,000 and further levels between $88,000 and $90,000. Glassnode data indicates that the cost basis for ETF holders and corporate treasuries ranges from $80,000 to $81,500. ETH support is at $2,150, with resistance at $2,500. The ETH/BTC ratio has fallen to approximately 0.029, and ETH ETFs recorded net outflows for the fourth consecutive week, totaling $220.7 million. Q
Multiple geopolitical and fiscal risks drive capital into US Treasuries, with the 10-year Treasury yield plunging 19.3 basis points in a single day, marking the largest daily move since March 2023.
Odaily — Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X that he wrote earlier this year predicting that the Federal Reserve would at some point in the future purchase equity ETFs through the Treasury in a similar manner. China and Japan are helping to gradually normalize this practice; he believes that within the next 5 to 10 years, the U.S. market may come to view it as a normal occurrence.
Odaily Report: Bitcoin News posted on X that Bitcoin rose about 2.4%, hitting a five-day high near $82,830 and rebounding from a low near $80,600 caused by weekend selling. Market expectations for another Fed rate hike have declined significantly, with traders now pricing in about a 12% probability that the Fed will raise rates at its October 28 meeting. Higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data last week had briefly sparked concerns about further monetary tightening; meanwhile, falling oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields improved investor sentiment.
QCP's latest market analysis indicates that Bitcoin has maintained resilience within a narrow $80,000–$83,000 range throughout the past week, establishing firm support at the $80,000 level, which contrasts with tech stocks remaining under persistent pressure. From a macro perspective, despite robust inflation data, safe-haven demand has driven long-dated US Treasuries higher, while comments from Federal Reserve officials have tempered rate hike expectations. The subsequent pullback in Treasury yields has provided support for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Capital flows are showing signs of rotation from crowded artificial intelligence segments, such as semiconductors, into defensive sectors like healthcare and banking; however, there remains no clear evidence of large-scale direct inflows into cryptocurrency markets.
market analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin can return to $100,000 before the end of 2026.Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at crypto asset management firm Bitwise, believes that factors such as institutional demand through ETFs and corporate Bitcoin purchases, concerns over inflation and government debt, and an improving regulatory environment are expected to push Bitcoin to higher levels by year-end, potentially even breaking through $100,000.Adam Morgan McCarthy, Head of Research at London-based crypto trading and market data firm LO:TECH, expects Bitcoin to trade mainly in the $85,000 to $95,000 range through year-end. He noted that inflation pressures and the possibility of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will continue to weigh on Bitcoin's performance. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.6% month-over-month in September, with core CPI up 0.3% month-over-month, complicating the outlook for monetary policy.Luca Invernizzi, Senior Derivatives Trader at Nomura's crypto unit Laser Digital, said Bitcoin will remain primarily driven by macroeconomic factors and U.S. long-term Treasury yields in the near term. However, market leverage has been largely flushed out, and if Bitcoin effectively breaks above $90,000, it could trigger a new round of short-covering. James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, also believes that the contradiction between inflation and a weakening job market will influence the Fed's subsequent policy decisions and Bitcoin's trajectory. (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin News posted on X that MSCI is advancing a proposed methodology that would classify Michael Saylor's Strategy, Japan's Metaplanet, and other digital asset treasury companies as "non-operating" enterprises, potentially excluding them from the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes. JPMorgan estimates that passive funds tracking MSCI indexes may be forced to sell $2.8 billion worth of MSTR shares; if other index providers adopt similar rules, the broader capital outflow could reach $8.8 billion. Strategy's reverse analysis shows that MSCI-tracking funds hold approximately 3.1% of its outstanding shares; a final decision is expected around October 16, with implementation potentially beginning on November 30.
Odaily reports: Patrick Collison posted on X that more than a year after Privy joined Stripe, its wallet asset scale has grown to about 25 times its previous level, its number of monthly active developers has grown about 3 times, and its revenue has grown about 9 times. It currently facilitates nearly $25 billion in transactions per month. Companies such as Ramp, Deel, Klarna, and Hyperliquid are building embedded banking features based on Privy. Stripe is integrating Privy into Treasury, Link, and Connect, and plans to launch a Link balance feature. Privy's wallet infrastructure already supports AI agents in conducting transactions and earning income. Stripe, together with Privy, Bridge, and other businesses, is building a unified API to support holding stablecoin balances and earning yield, fiat funding inflows and outflows, and arranging spending through bank cards.
According to Wintermute's weekly market update, Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed most officials expected another rate hike by year-end, with rate cuts unmentioned, while the US 10-year Treasury yield reached multi-decade highs. Consequently, BTC fell 3.2% this week to around the $83,000 level, ETH dropped 7.0%, and the S&P 500 index rose 1.2% to an all-time high. US spot BTC ETFs recorded weekly net outflows of approximately $679 million, marking the largest single-week outflow since June; ETH ETFs saw outflows of $542 million. CoinGlass data indicates roughly $1.19 billion in liquidations within 24 hours near Thursday's low, with long positions accounting for $1.06 billion. ETH faced additional pressure from news that researchers associated with the Ethereum Foundation advised users to migrate to new addresses. BTC's market share rose to approximately 59.5%, representing the most prominent internal signal of the week. Wintermute noted that amid the Fed's inclination toward rate hikes, yields are unlikely to retreat in the short term. Renewed optimism for crypto markets requires simultaneously meeting two conditions: "stabilization of long-end rates" and "spot ETFs resuming net inflows." It advised closely monitoring Wednesday's September CPI data and earnings reports from financial institutions and AI-related companies this week.
According to a report from Binance Research, since August 31, the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 47 basis points to 5.22%, with 43 basis points driven by an increase in real yields (currently at 2.87%, peaking at 2.95% on October 5, the highest since 2008), while inflation expectations contributed only 4 basis points. Since the rate hike on September 16, leading market sectors have been highly concentrated: in equities, the S&P 500 rose 3.3%, led by semiconductors up 10.6%, while small-cap and bank stocks declined, and the equal-weight index remained flat; in crypto markets, Bitcoin gained 9.3%, Ethereum rose 2.7%, with Layer 2 (+32%), RWA (+29%), and AI tokens (+29%) leading the way, while Meme coins and payment tokens only advanced 5%. In terms of fund flows, net inflows into stocks on the Binance platform reached $169 million, with semiconductor-related inflows nearly quadrupling to $73 million, and Intel attracting $32 million in a single week despite a 12% drop in its stock price. Key focus areas ahead include the September CPI data (expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.7%) and the banking earnings season, which will serve as a key test of the current market landscape.
the whale "Setting Ten Major Goals First" posted on X, stating that although recent macro bearish factors such as rising U.S. Treasury yields, strengthened rate hike expectations, and rising oil prices have emerged in concentration, BTC only pulled back by about 5%. Therefore, he believes the market is still in a relatively strong trend and does not currently think BTC will directly fall to $78,000 or $74,000. However, he also mentioned that he has already set stop-loss conditions: if BTC falls below $79,000, he will begin reducing positions; if the daily close breaks below $78,000, he will close all remaining long positions.
According to CoinDesk, volatility in the U.S. Treasury market continues to rise, while Bitcoin and U.S. stock market volatility remain at year-to-date lows. Market analysts warn that turmoil in the bond market may gradually spill over into risk assets.
Odaily News: Bitcoin is facing selling pressure, marking its third rejection near $87,000 since September 23. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that since early last week, BTC has formed a pattern of "rising local lows," but bulls have yet to gain sufficient upward momentum. The price is now approaching the apex of a triangle formed by horizontal resistance and an ascending support line. A breakout from this pattern could bring greater volatility to the market.The total crypto market capitalization has fallen back to approximately $2.93 trillion. Meanwhile, U.S. equities have shown relative strength, with the Nasdaq 100 hitting a record closing high and the S&P 500 less than 0.5% away from its all-time high. However, U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, with the 10-year yield rising to 5.32%, near its highest level since 2002.Market observers believe that for BTC to break through $87,000, sufficient buying pressure is needed to absorb the persistent selling near that level. Once it holds above this threshold, it could open further upside toward its near 8-month high. (CoinDesk)
US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the correction in US Treasuries stems from changes in the global interest rate environment rather than a one-sided sell-off, and noted that the situation in Iran has temporarily masked the resilience of the US economy.
According to Chaoxiang research, UBS’s September 28, 2026 report indicates the initiation of coverage on digital asset strategies, projecting the stablecoin market capitalization to reach approximately $1.2 trillion by 2031, alongside real-world payment volumes of roughly $3 trillion. Stablecoin issuers hold approximately $175 billion in short-term US Treasury-related exposures. The Bank for International Settlements estimates that a $3.5 billion inflow into stablecoins reduces the yield on 3-month US Treasuries by approximately 0.7 basis points, decreasing it by about 4 basis points over a 10-day period. Tokenization can unlock approximately $2.46 trillion in annualized repo trading volume. By 2030, AI agents may facilitate approximately $2 trillion in global C2B e-commerce, with stablecoins accounting for about $56 billion of that volume. UBS believes that as digital assets achieve mainstream adoption, their overall impact on the financial sector will range from neutral to mildly positive. Sectors such as payments and fintech, exchanges, and asset management are assessed as mildly positive, while banking remains neutral. Allocation strategies center on three core themes: stablecoins, tokenization, and agent commerce. Increasing compliance costs particularly favor large-scale operators.
According to data from Trader T, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded an overall net inflow of $66.19 million on September 29. BlackRock IBIT saw a net inflow of $51.09 million, ARK Invest ARKB registered a net inflow of $33.24 million, Bitwise BITB experienced a net outflow of $18.14 million, while other ETFs such as Fidelity FBTC and Grayscale GBTC reported zero net inflows and outflows for the day. On the same day, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a 24-year high, with Bitcoin's price hovering around $82,600.
Odaily News: Some analysts expect that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could rise to 6%, driven by concerns over the federal fiscal deficit, debt growth, and capital competition. Since the end of 2023, the yield has risen to 5.23%, while Bitcoin's price has roughly doubled to $86,000.If yields rise due to fiscal concerns, investors may seek alternatives to government debt, and Bitcoin could benefit; if the rise in yields is driven by the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy again, Bitcoin could come under pressure. (CoinDesk)