News linked to both this project and an event.
the U.S.-Iran peace agreement will be officially signed this Friday, marking a major turning point for global markets. Hedge funds are rapidly exiting safe-haven assets, pivoting to oversold Asian equities, U.S. Treasuries, and consumer sectors, in an effort to recreate the profit logic of the pre-war market. Currently, global hedge fund managers are frantically dusting off the "pre-war playbook," attempting to capture the first wave of premiums following the retreat of inflation.In the bond market, hedge funds are actively betting on the Federal Reserve's "hawkish pivot." Grey Value Management in Florida and Reed Capital in Singapore are both bullish on short-term U.S. Treasuries. Analysts believe that as falling crude oil prices ease cost-push inflation, traders are significantly reducing their bets on Fed rate hikes. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note has already retreated notably. Compared to longer-dated bonds, the release of its safe-haven premium offers more robust allocation value.
: HyperLiquid has announced an upgrade to the AQAv2 mechanism. The system will use on-chain automated trading to maintain a dynamic 1:9 balance of USDC between two core addresses in each HyperEVM block, corresponding to the contract execution layer and the treasury reserve layer, respectively.According to the mechanism design, this ratio is used for functional stratification between "high-frequency trading and liquidation liquidity" and "long-term reserves and yield pools," aiming to enhance system stability and isolate trading risks.On the technical side, the balancing process is executed automatically by the system without manual intervention. Circle is responsible for the technical deployment, while Coinbase undertakes the treasury deployment and management.Regarding the yield mechanism, AQAv2 stipulates that stablecoin issuers must distribute approximately 90% of their cost-adjusted reserve earnings generated within the Hyperliquid ecosystem to the protocol. Settlement occurs on a 30-day cumulative cycle, and the earnings will be automatically transferred to the Assistance Fund on the 8th day after the cycle ends.Additionally, the mechanism includes a transition period arrangement:1. Start of yield accrual: August 26;2. First yield payment: October 3.The market believes this design marks the evolution of stablecoins from traditional custody structures toward an on-chain infrastructure model characterized by "protocolized capital stratification + automated yield distribution."
market maker Wintermute released a weekly market analysis report stating that Bitcoin fell below $62,000 last week, with a weekly decline of approximately 14%, hitting a new low since September 2024. Wintermute believes that although Strategy founder Michael Saylor disclosed the sale of 32 BTC, drawing market attention, the scale of this transaction is negligible. The real reason for the market's weakness is the continuous reduction of positions by U.S. institutional investors and the outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs.Wintermute pointed out that the U.S. added 172,000 non-farm jobs in May, far exceeding the market expectation of approximately 80,000. Meanwhile, job openings rose to a near two-year high, and the service price index hit a new high since August 2022. Strong economic data has weakened market expectations for a Fed rate cut, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.55%, creating a "good news is bad news" macro environment that pressures risk assets.Meanwhile, the rally in AI concept stocks has shown signs of weakening, with the Nasdaq index falling 4.7% for the week and the S&P 500 recording its first weekly decline since March. Wintermute believes that the pullback in the AI sector, rising yields, and the upcoming SpaceX IPO have collectively dampened market risk appetite.In the crypto market, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days as of May 30, with total outflows of approximately $2.97 billion. The net outflow in May reached $2.43 billion, marking the worst monthly performance since 2026. Wintermute OTC data shows that retail funds continue to flow into U.S. stocks, while U.S. institutional investors have recently turned bearish and are leading the selling.However, Wintermute believes there are also positive signals in the market, including long-term capital gradually building positions at current price levels. From a perspective of more than one year, Bitcoin's risk-reward ratio is becoming more attractive. The report stated that the SpaceX IPO on June 12 will serve as an important barometer for observing market risk appetite. If the issuance is smoothly absorbed, it could help boost market sentiment; conversely, it may exacerbate the pressure on risk assets.
Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has entered a deeper correction phase, dropping to a low of $59,200 on June 5, a cumulative 53% decline from its all-time high in October 2025. This decline is primarily driven by record outflows from spot ETFs, derivative deleveraging, and sustained pressure from a high-interest-rate macroeconomic environment. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note currently remains above 4.45%, further dampening market expectations for a Fed rate cut.On-chain and fund flow data suggest the current market is closer to a "distribution phase" than "panic selling." The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has turned significantly negative after strong accumulation from April to May, indicating that recent buyers are steadily exiting. Meanwhile, the cost basis for short-term holders has fallen below the True Market Mean of $77,800, meaning a large number of new investors are in unrealized loss positions, creating significant selling pressure for any potential rebound. As the price approaches the overall realized cost basis of around $53,900, the characteristic of reducing positions on bounces is becoming more pronounced.At the macro level, the US economy continues to grow, but inflation is eroding real household income. The job market remains robust, with job openings hitting a nearly two-year high and continued job creation exceeding replacement levels. Sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing, construction, and leisure and hospitality are all expanding. However, inflation is expected to continue outpacing wage growth, leading to a decline in real purchasing power and presenting the Fed with a more complex balance between maintaining employment and controlling inflation.The key driver of current market trends has shifted to real yields. Driven by rising energy prices and geopolitical risks, inflation expectations are heating up, pushing both nominal and real yields on US Treasuries higher. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, prompting investors to reassess their allocation to risk assets. Bitcoin has been the first to feel the impact, with US spot ETFs experiencing their largest outflows since launch. The market has also shifted from betting on rate cuts to pricing in the risk of "higher for longer" interest rates. Bitfinex Alpha believes that, in the current phase, the trajectory of real yields has become the most important variable influencing performance in both traditional financial and digital asset markets.Despite short-term pressure, the institutionalization process continues. The report notes that Securitize's approval to list on the New York Stock Exchange signals that tokenization infrastructure is further integrating into the traditional financial system. Concurrently, the US GENIUS Act is advancing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, bringing issuers under compliance requirements similar to those for traditional financial institutions. The institutio
Odaily Odaily French semiconductor company Sequans Communications stated on Thursday that it has completed the redemption of all debt related to its Bitcoin treasury, marking its official exit from the previous crypto asset treasury strategy and a refocus on the Internet of Things (IoT) and cellular semiconductor business. The company stated that this debt repayment was mainly completed by selling approximately 80% of its Bitcoin holdings. Sequans currently holds only 658 BTC, which are now “completely unencumbered.” The company said it will gradually “monetize” the remaining Bitcoin in the future, but did not specify whether it will continue selling or use on-chain methods such as collateralization.Sequans CEO Georges Karam stated that this debt cleanup “marks an important turning point,” with the company having strengthened its balance sheet, simplified its capital structure, and will now fully concentrate on the 4G/5G IoT chip business, including applications such as smart metering, asset tracking, connected vehicles, and industrial IoT.In retrospect, Sequans initiated its Bitcoin treasury strategy in June 2025, planning to substantially increase its BTC holdings. However, it gradually reduced its position amid market fluctuations, ultimately exiting the strategy entirely during the current cycle. Although the company's stock price saw a slight increase on the day, it has cumulatively fallen by over 90% from its peak during the Bitcoin boom. (The Block)
Odaily报道, “BTC OG insider whale” Garrett Jin has released his “Weekly Market Strategy Signal.” In his analysis, he points out that the current geopolitical situation and the trajectory of the US dollar are deadlocked: despite US strikes on Iranian-related targets, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. Although US Secretary of State Rubio signaled “positive news,” the peace agreement proposed by Iran has already been vetoed by the White House.Long-term US Treasury yields continue to hover in the 5.07% – 5.18% range, reaching their highest levels in 19 years. The S&P 500 index briefly hit a new high before quickly pulling back. Garrett Jin believes that a single positive or negative catalyst is insufficient to change the market landscape. Only when at least two of the three key factors—the credit environment, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical conditions—converge can the market experience a substantial shift.On another front, capital expenditure in the AI sector is accelerating its shift from the United States to Asia. ByteDance plans to increase its capital expenditure to as high as $70 billion this year, while Tencent and Alibaba are also ramping up their investments. Competition in the AI arena has now escalated to the level of national competition.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum amid a sharp deterioration in the macroeconomic environment. This is a significant signal, suggesting the market is currently more in a "Risk-off" phase. Until its on-chain "Impulse" indicator returns above the zero line, every BTC rebound still lacks confirmation.He pointed out that the recently published fourth part of his "Decision Architecture for Bitcoin" focuses on building a macro framework based on the US Dollar Index (DXY), the 10-year US Treasury yield, and the VIX volatility index. The core argument is that not all macro fluctuations will disrupt the on-chain structure, but when macro factors truly enter "dominant mode," the market may temporarily lose upward momentum even if on-chain data is positive.Additionally, CryptoQuant added a dashboard for US spot Bitcoin ETFs this week, covering data such as weekly net inflows, cumulative flow, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, demand changes over the past four weeks, and capital distribution among various funds. Currently, the 30-day momentum of the ETF stands at just $362.8 million, whereas this indicator reached a high of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and hit a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025.Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains a crucial indicator for observing US spot demand. When the index stays consistently above zero, it indicates that US buying is still supporting the market. If it turns negative, even if BTC rises, its upward trend may lack genuine US demand support.
analysts suggest the rising yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and other major global economies' sovereign bonds are weakening the market's willingness to allocate to high-risk, non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, amid tensions related to Iran, concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are growing, prompting some speculative capital to flow into commodity markets such as crude oil, copper, and sulfur.Market数据显示，Bitcoin has dropped over 3% in the past 24 hours, falling approximately 10% from its recent high of around $82,500 on May 6. During this market downturn, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to experience capital outflows. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1.26 billion this week, marking the largest single-week capital outflow since January. The previous week also saw outflows close to $1 billion, with cumulative net outflows over the two weeks exceeding $2.26 billion.Additionally, there are emerging views that capital might be shifting towards trades related to SpaceX's potential IPO. Currently, trading volume for some blockchain-based derivatives in the pre-IPO market for SpaceX has reached millions of dollars. (CoinDesk)
The latest U.S. data shows that foreign investors collectively reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities in March 2026, with total holdings declining from $9.49 trillion in February to $9.25 trillion. Japan reduced its holdings by approximately $47 billion that month, bringing its total to $1.191 trillion; the United Kingdom, meanwhile, increased its holdings by about $29.6 billion, raising its total to $926.9 billion. The report notes that the U.S.-Iran conflict drove up oil prices and inflation expectations, prompting central banks in multiple countries to sell dollar-denominated assets to stabilize their exchange rates—thereby accelerating the sell-off of U.S. Treasuries. During the same period, foreign investors incurred an estimated valuation loss of approximately $142.1 billion on their long-term U.S. Treasury holdings.
According to chart analysis released by independent analyst Markus Thielen on May 19, the current market capitalization of USDT has reached $189.8 billion, while that of USDC stands at $76.9 billion—both exhibiting long-term upward trends. However, since Bitcoin entered a correction phase in October last year, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has remained largely flat, indicating relatively limited inflows of new capital into the crypto market. Thielen noted that although there is a widespread belief that stablecoins will fully replace traditional payment networks, their primary use cases remain concentrated on crypto trading and portfolio management—still far from achieving mainstream payment adoption. While U.S. policy broadly supports stablecoin development—partly because their reserve assets are often reallocated into U.S. Treasury securities—the gap between current usage and true mainstream payment application remains substantial.
Odaily released the latest analysis chart indicating that Ethereum's recent price movements are increasingly dominated by ETF fund flows. Over the past year, the 30-day moving average of daily net inflows for ETH ETFs has been highly synchronized with ETH's price performance, showing a marked increase in Ethereum's sensitivity to institutional fund flows.BIT points out that one of Ethereum's current core narratives is its net staking yield of approximately 2.5%. However, against the backdrop of accelerating inflation again and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising above 4.6%, Ethereum's staking yield advantage is weakening compared to risk-free assets like U.S. Treasuries.Furthermore, ETF outflows from Ethereum have resumed since May. BIT believes that if this trend continues, Ethereum is likely to maintain a consolidation and range-bound trajectory.
According to chart analysis released by independent analyst Markus Thielen on May 18, the 30-day moving average of daily net inflows into ETH ETFs over the past year has been highly synchronized with Ethereum’s price movement, making institutional fund flows a core driver of ETH’s price. However, as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rise above 4.6% and inflation accelerates again, Ethereum’s ~2.5% net staking yield is losing appeal relative to risk-free assets. Since May, ETH ETFs have seen renewed net outflows; if this trend persists, Ethereum’s price is highly likely to remain in a range-bound consolidation pattern.
Bitcoin has fallen below the $77,000 mark, hitting a low of approximately $76,720. Analysts attribute the market decline primarily to multiple macroeconomic pressures, including the renewed escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, rising inflation concerns, and increased risk aversion across risk assets. Former US President Donald Trump issued a strong warning to Iran on social media, intensifying geopolitical uncertainty.Meanwhile, rising oil prices have further elevated inflation expectations, with Brent crude climbing to around $111 and WTI rising above $107. This has sparked concerns that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.The current selling pressure is also compounded by factors such as rising US Treasury yields, a strengthening US dollar, and ETF outflows. Data shows that Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1 billion in the week ending May 17, ending six consecutive weeks of net inflows.In terms of market sentiment, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has fallen back to 27, re-entering the "fear zone." Analysts believe that short-term trends will remain highly dependent on macroeconomic data and policy expectations. However, some institutions view the current correction as a "healthy digestion" period, suggesting the long-term structure remains unchanged. (The Block)
crypto research firm 10x Research stated that since the release of US CPI data on May 13th, Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows exceeding $1 billion, reigniting "inflation trade" sentiment in the market. Market sentiment indicators have dropped from 87% to 45%. Meanwhile, long-term US Treasury yields continue to climb, with the 30-year yield rising to 5.12%. As inflation returns to the forefront of market focus, the crypto market is facing significant headwinds.Furthermore, 10x Research noted that its models have triggered bearish signals for Ethereum, and Bitcoin is currently testing the key support level of its 30-day moving average. A confirmed breakdown below this level could signal further momentum deterioration. The firm is closely watching the short-term bull/bear line at $79,125 and the major support level at $76,922, suggesting that the bottom for this cycle may have already formed.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin has recently attempted to break above the $82,000 level three times—but each time failed and retreated. Data shows that during each rally, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1.0 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are consistently taking profits amid upward price movements rather than holding onto their positions. Axel Adler notes that $82,000 is not only a key technical resistance level but also a significant zone of selling pressure from a market-behavior perspective. Currently, this level coincides with Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (200D SMA). Until the 7-day SMA of STH-SOPR sustains above 1.0 for several consecutive days—and until Bitcoin’s daily closing price decisively breaks above its 200-day SMA—the ongoing rally may still be viewed as a selling opportunity. On the macro front, escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to dampen market risk appetite. Fueled by the Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and expectations of “higher-for-longer” interest rates, U.S. equities closed lower across the board on Friday. WTI crude oil futures surged over 4%, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to approximately 4.6%, hitting a year-to-date high.
Bitcoin slumped shortly after the US stock market opened, briefly breaking below the $79,000 mark, with a daily decline of approximately 3%, trading near its lowest level since May. Market consensus suggests this pullback is closely linked to the sell-off in risk assets triggered by a surge in US Treasury yields.Data shows that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose above 4.55%, reaching its highest level in nearly a year, fueling concerns over tightening liquidity and a reassessment of risk assets. Analysts point out that this level previously triggered adjustments in US stocks and policy expectations last year, and is now once again serving as a key pressure signal.Trading firm The Kobeissi Letter stated that the "panic-driven rally" in the bond market is intensifying, with expectations for prolonged high interest rates growing. The market has begun pricing in the possibility of further rate hikes in the future, quickly cooling the previous "euphoria" in risk assets.From a technical perspective, analysts believe that after encountering multiple rejections from resistance above $82,000, Bitcoin's support structure is weakening. In the short term, it may retest the $75,000–$77,000 range, as the market enters a phase of range-bound trading and directional selection. (Cointelegraph)
According to Odaily, Bitcoin's price is hovering around $80,350, up a slight 0.8% in the short term, facing sustained pressure after multiple failed attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level. This zone is considered a confluence of resistance from the ETF cost basis, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap fill area.Although the US CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive expectations for crypto regulation, institutional capital continues to withdraw. Data shows that the 7-day average net outflow from US spot Bitcoin ETFs has fallen to -$88 million per day, the largest outflow scale since mid-February. Analysts suggest this selling pressure is more driven by "profit-taking" than panic selling.On the macro front, rising US Treasury yields are a core source of pressure. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has climbed to approximately 4.52%, a 10-month high. Meanwhile, the April CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, the highest level in three years, further pushing back market expectations for a Fed rate cut. Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, thereby weakening the appeal of risk assets.From an institutional perspective, some analysts believe the current ETF outflows represent portfolio rebalancing rather than a structural retreat. The options market indicates significant resistance for Bitcoin in the $82,000-$84,000 range, while $77,000 stands as a key support level. If the price breaks below this zone without a cooling of leverage, the market could enter a deleveraging phase, increasing the risk of a correction. (Decrypt)
: Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that although Bitcoin rebounded after falling from around $125,000 to $60,000, the current trend remains a "repair after decline" and has not yet been confirmed as entering a new bull market cycle.He pointed out that from an on-chain data perspective, multiple key indicators have not yet entered the historical bear market bottom range. This includes the "Supply in Loss" and 90-day UTXO-related metrics, which have not yet shown a sufficient cyclical bottom structure. Meanwhile, the "LTH Realized Supply" has also not displayed the typical accumulation pattern seen at the end of a bear market, indicating that the market has not yet entered a deep reallocation phase.Additionally, spot selling pressure indicators have not shown obvious "capitulation selling", suggesting that a typical comprehensive market cleansing has not occurred during this decline. Axel Adler Jr believes that before improvements are seen simultaneously in on-chain structure, spot demand, and supply pressure, the current upward move is more likely a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, he pointed out that the global risk environment remains tight. The conflict between the US and Iran has pushed Brent crude oil close to $100 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressure. Consumer confidence and financial health indices are weakening, indicating pressure on the demand side. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain high, with real interest rates and inflation expectations rising concurrently, further suppressing risk asset valuations.He also mentioned that the leadership of the US Federal Reserve is about to enter a potential transition phase, but the interest rate market is no longer pricing in rapid rate cuts and has even begun to price in the probability of rate hikes. Market expectations have clearly shifted towards "higher for longer". In an environment of high oil prices, high interest rates, and uncertain monetary policy, overall financial conditions remain tight.Axel Adler Jr stated that the current market needs to wait for clearer on-chain bottom structures and signs of demand-side recovery. Until then, he maintains a cautious stance on the market outlook.
Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins), Head of Research at Galaxy Research, published a post revealing that Galaxy Research has released a new report refuting banking industry claims that the GENIUS Act would erode U.S. bank deposits—and providing quantitative estimates. Key findings from the report include: - Under the GENIUS Act framework, 60%–70% of new stablecoin issuance would originate overseas; inflows of foreign deposits would be approximately twice the volume of domestic deposit migration—indicating a net increase in total deposits rather than a zero-sum reallocation. - Each newly minted GENIUS stablecoin would generate approximately $0.32 in net credit for the U.S. economy. - In the base-case scenario, total credit expansion by 2030 would reach roughly $400 billion; under the optimistic scenario, it could reach $1.2 trillion. - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields (T-bills) would compress by 3–5 basis points, potentially saving taxpayers up to $3 billion annually in borrowing costs. - The report also notes that the interest pass-through mechanism does not pose an existential threat to U.S. banks—it merely represents a reallocation of profit margins and will not reduce overall credit capacity.
Bitcoin briefly approached the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $83,300 on Wednesday but failed to achieve a decisive breakout, subsequently falling back below $81,000. Meanwhile, the broader crypto market weakened, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Index falling over 2% in the past 24 hours, making it the worst-performing major sector. The 200-day moving average is widely regarded by the market as a key indicator for measuring long-term trends. If BTC can hold above this level, it would further reinforce the market narrative that the bear market, which saw prices fall below $63,000 in February, has ended and a new bull market has begun.However, a similar situation occurred historically in March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly broke above and tested the 200-day moving average before ultimately falling to around $20,000 by June of that year. As a result, some analysts are warning of the risk of a "fakeout."Analytics firm Marex stated that Bitcoin's ability to continue its upward trajectory depends on three factors: sustained spot buying pressure, a continued tightening of exchange supply, and a derivatives market that remains healthy without overheating. If all three factors align positively, Bitcoin could quickly open up the path towards the $85,000 range. Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, noted that this pullback appears more like a brief consolidation within an uptrend rather than an end to the trend. However, he also cautioned that the daily RSI had previously entered overbought territory, and similar instances in the past were accompanied by significant corrections.Additionally, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen to 4.32% from its early-month high of 4.46%, which is viewed as a potential positive factor for risk assets. (CoinDesk)