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JPMorgan: Probability of Clarity Act Passing This Year Drops to 37%, Some Provisions May Inhibit Institutional Participation

According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.

Lighter Founder: All Economic Value of Lighter Will Flow to the Token, with the Equity Structure Converted to a Token Structure at TGE

Lighter founder Vladimir Novakovski published an article on X this morning titled "Equity and Tokens."In the article, Novakovski clarified that all economic value generated by Lighter will belong to token holders.Lighter's original intention has always been to use venture capital to bootstrap the project until the moment of token issuance. Lighter is a U.S. company and exists as a single entity — the entity that issued equity in the years leading up to TGE is the same entity that issued tokens at TGE. Apart from converting to a token cap table at TGE, the equity cap table will have no further function in the future.More specifically, Lighter completed its final equity financing round a few months before TGE, which was oversubscribed by approximately 5 times, attracting over $300 million in capital interest against a $68 million allocation. At that time, all equity stakeholders (including early investors and former employees) were informed of the future plan — that their equity value would only be reflected as holdings on the token cap table — and were given the opportunity to sell their equity stakes. Anyone who disagreed with the philosophy that "all value belongs to the token" could easily exit at a higher valuation. Ultimately, less than 1% of equity holders chose to sell their shares, while the rest chose to stay, thereby supporting Lighter's commitment to "value accruing to the token."

Coinone Major Shareholder Change Approved: OKX Ventures and Korea Investment & Securities Complete New Shareholder Structure Filing

Odaily Planet Daily reported that South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Coinone announced on July 22 that it had received approval from the Korea Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) to complete its major shareholder change declaration, formally establishing a new shareholder structure centered around Korea Investment & Securities, OKX Ventures, and Com2uS Holdings. Coinone stated that it will leverage the enhanced compliance and technical capabilities of its new shareholders to upgrade digital asset trading services and accelerate its transition into a comprehensive blockchain financial platform. (EDaily)

U.S. Representative McHenry Advocates for the CLARITY Act: The Crypto Market Structure Bill Could Become the Next-Generation “Telecommunications Act”

a16z has published an article by U.S. Representative Patrick McHenry titled “The time for Clarity is here: The next-generation Telecoms Act.” The article points out that the advancing crypto market structure legislation, the “CLARITY Act,” holds historical significance similar to the 1996 Telecommunications Act, potentially laying a vital foundation for the next wave of financial innovation in the United States.Patrick McHenry stated that his over 20 years of service in Congress have shown him that timely legislation can propel the nation forward, while legislative stagnation may force the U.S. to play catch-up in critical technological fields. America stands at a crossroads: either maintain its position as the world's leading technology and financial hub, or cede this advantage to competitors challenging its dominance. The CLARITY Act represents one of the few forward-looking financial legislative opportunities in recent years. Like the 1996 Telecommunications Act, it aims to establish consumer protection mechanisms while embracing emerging technological developments. The bill has garnered broad bipartisan support and involves coordination across multiple congressional committees.Patrick McHenry believes that U.S. financial regulation has long been stuck in a “crisis response mode.” Since the 2008 financial crisis, most major financial reforms have primarily targeted past risks, failing to establish an institutional framework for future technological innovation. He argues that crypto market structure legislation has the opportunity to break this pattern and become the first significant reform in nearly 30 years to proactively build the financial system of the future.Regarding the view that existing securities laws are sufficient to cover the crypto industry, this perspective does not reflect market realities. Companies and entrepreneurs are not rejecting regulation; rather, they seek clear rules. “When entrepreneurs know where the boundaries are, they can innovate with greater confidence.” If the CLARITY Act is passed, it will provide regulatory certainty for the digital asset industry, protect consumers and investors, and equip enforcement agencies with tools to combat crime and bad actors. Multiple crypto-related legislative efforts, including the stablecoin regulation bill the GENIUS Act, have gained bipartisan support. An increasing number of lawmakers recognize that digital assets are not going away, and the U.S. needs to establish clear rules to maintain its competitive edge.Other countries around the world are actively advancing digital asset regulatory frameworks. Capital and innovation will flow to markets with clear rules. The CLARITY Act is not just about crypto assets; it concerns whether the U.S. can continue to lead economic development in the 21st century and establish the rules for global technological innovation.

The US Senate plans to push for full Senate consideration of the CLARITY Act on July 20.

According to The Hill, the U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill, the CLARITY Act, is facing a critical advancement milestone before the August congressional recess. Senate Majority Leader John Thune plans to push the bill to the Senate floor for consideration during the week of July 20, but it still requires support from at least seven Democratic senators.

Clarity Act Legislative Time Window Narrows, Passage Within the Year Still Awaits Congressional Coordination

According to CoinDesk, the U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill Clarity Act failed to be signed within the previously expected timeframe. As Congress approaches its summer recess, pressure is mounting for the bill to be enacted within 2026. However, several observers following the legislative process remain cautiously optimistic about its passage within the year, believing that current key coordination efforts are still ongoing, including the consolidation of content between the Senate Agriculture Committee and Banking Committee versions.

SBI Group and Startale Group Jointly Launch Japan's First Trust Structure-Based Yen Stablecoin JPYSC

Odaily, June 24 - According to official sources, SBI Group and Startale Group jointly launched Japan's first yen stablecoin, JPYSC, on June 24, 2026, which is based on a trust structure. Issued by SBI Shinsei Trust Bank, the stablecoin manages its reserve assets through a trust bank, featuring lower transfer costs and support for large-value transactions.As Japan's first stablecoin classified as a Type III electronic payment instrument, JPYSC's core advantage lies in combining the regulatory transparency of the Japanese financial system with the programmability of blockchain technology. It aims to build a yen settlement infrastructure connecting traditional finance with on-chain markets.Initially, the project is limited to use within SBI VC Trade accounts. However, technical preparations for migration to a public blockchain are complete. Once regulatory and tax policies are clarified, external circulation will be opened. JPYSC's application scenarios span six major areas: on-chain foreign exchange markets, institutional lending, RWA settlement, retail payments, cross-border remittances, and over-the-counter (OTC) trading.

Sonic Labs Extends Fantom Opera Operations Through Year-End, Announces New Leadership Structure

Sonic Labs announced multiple governance and operational adjustments on the X platform. The Fantom Opera network, originally scheduled to shut down at the end of this month, will now continue to operate at least until the end of 2026. Correspondingly, the cross-chain bridge will also continue to receive funding support during this period. Sonic Labs stated that this decision was made based on community feedback.Meanwhile, the team announced the cancellation of the generic "Contributors" label and revealed a new leadership structure. Matt Visser will serve as Chief Executive Officer (CEO), bringing a background in product management and financial restructuring, having co-founded Squire.Law and led Web3 product strategy. Kosta Kourkoumelis will assume the role of Chief Operating Officer (COO), bringing over 20 years of experience in the financial services and digital asset industry, and has been involved in ecosystem development since the Fantom ICO stage.Previously, Andre Cronje had announced his departure from the Sonic Labs board, stating that he would focus on technology research and development going forward.

Crypto Super PAC Funding Floods U.S. 2026 Primaries: Controversy Erupts Over Fund Flows and Narrative Packaging

According to Forbes, as the 2026 U.S. primaries advance, political donations from the crypto industry have surged significantly. Protect Progress—a Democratic super PAC backed by the Fairshake network—is continuously channeling funds into candidates across several key districts, sparking controversy over “political narrative packaging.” Disclosures show that in the Maryland House of Delegates race alone, Protect Progress has contributed over $4.9 million to candidate Adrian Boafo; similar funding has also flowed to multiple Democratic candidates in Texas and Georgia. Meanwhile, Congress is advancing the Digital Asset Market Structure Act (the CLARITY Act), and the progress of this legislation further elevates the importance of primary election outcomes. Analysts contend that the crypto industry’s influence within the U.S. political system continues to expand, with several senators and candidates publicly endorsing regulatory frameworks for the crypto industry.

Bloomberg Analyst: Bitcoin's Volatility Structure Gradually Converging with Gold, Asset Characteristics May Be Shifting

Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X platform, pointing out that Bitcoin's volatility and correlation are increasingly approaching the level of gold. This trend has been significantly underestimated during the current market adjustment and may be a positive signal amid recent market turbulence. Based on the 60-day historical volatility comparison data of IBIT and the gold ETF (GLD) since their launch, Bitcoin's volatility structure is gradually converging with gold, indicating that its asset characteristics may be changing.Eric Balchunas added that despite the volatile market environment, the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT) has continued to outperform U.S. stocks since the escalation of the Iran conflict and has achieved more than double the excess returns compared to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since the approval of BlackRock's ETFs.

TD Cowen: Deteriorating Political Environment Reduces Likelihood of US Crypto Market Structure Bill Passing This Year

Investment bank TD Cowen stated that as the relevant political environment continues to deteriorate, the likelihood of the US crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act," passing this year is declining.TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg pointed out that while the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill earlier this month, this does not signify a substantive bipartisan agreement; rather, it merely pushes the controversy to the full Senate floor.The report indicated that the escalating controversies surrounding US President Donald Trump and his administration related to crypto in recent days are making it harder for Democrats to support the bill. If the bill does not include clear conflict-of-interest provisions, it will face even greater difficulty in gaining sufficient support in the current political environment.

CLARITY Act Hearing Live: AI Regulatory Sandbox Amendment Passes, Amendment to Block High-Risk Assets from Retirement Accounts Rejected

the deliberation of the "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" (i.e., the CLARITY Act) has commenced in the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. As of now:1. An amendment proposed by Senator Mike Rounds to create an AI regulatory sandbox was passed with 15 votes in favor and 9 against, indicating some bipartisan support, despite Senator Elizabeth Warren urging Democratic members to vote against it.2. An amendment proposed by Elizabeth Warren, aimed at "preventing high-risk assets from entering retirement accounts," was rejected with 11 votes in favor and 13 against.3. An amendment previously proposed by Senator Katie Britt of Alabama, which would have allowed certain retirement accounts to invest in pooled investment vehicles, was withdrawn before the vote.It is reported that one of the most contentious amendments comes from Elizabeth Warren, concerning the strengthening of sanctions authority over cryptocurrency mixers. In her remarks, she referenced the U.S.-sanctioned mixing protocol Tornado Cash, stating it has been used to launder over $7 billion for criminal organizations and North Korean hacker groups, including over $450 million in related funds. Warren argued that the current bill does not grant the U.S. Treasury Department sufficient legal authority to isolate or restrict mixer services, potentially creating loopholes in anti-money laundering oversight. In response, Cynthia Lummis countered that the illegal financial activities are already covered in Parts Two and Three of the bill.

BlackRock Files New Tokenized Fund Structure Application with the U.S. SEC

asset management giant BlackRock has filed a new tokenized fund structure application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), again selecting Securitize as the provider of underlying technology and issuance infrastructure. According to the filing, the fund will record ownership on the blockchain and integrate with regulated transfer agents and investor access systems. Specifically, Securitize Transfer Agent, LLC will be responsible for maintaining the official registry and ownership records of fund shares across multiple public blockchains, achieving the integration of on-chain assets with traditional compliance systems.This application represents a further expansion built on the success of its first tokenized fund, BUIDL. Since its launch in 2024, the product's scale has grown to approximately $2.3 billion. Market data shows that the total market size for real-world asset (RWA) tokenization has now surpassed $30 billion, with institutional capital accelerating its shift from experimental phases towards compliant, scaled on-chain financial infrastructure development.

Wintermute Weekly Report: BTC Breaks $80,000, but Rally Structure Raises Concerns

Wintermute released its weekly market analysis, covering the week ending May 11. During this period, BTC broke above $80,000 for the first time since January, peaking near $83,000 and decisively crossing its 200-day moving average—a resistance level that had held for seven months. However, Wintermute noted that this rally was primarily leveraged-driven: open interest surged by $10 billion month-on-month to $58 billion, while spot trading volume hit a two-year low—classic hallmarks of a short squeeze rather than a healthy breakout. Funding rates remain skewed bearish, indicating further short-covering potential in the near term; yet covering shorts does not equate to genuine bullish consensus. Looking at medium- to long-term fundamentals, institutional buying logic remains intact: BTC ETFs posted $623 million in net inflows for the week; Morgan Stanley’s BTC ETF attracted $194 million in its first month with zero net outflows on any single day; and BTC reserves held on exchanges remain at a seven-year low. Nevertheless, Wintermute cautioned that the RSI has entered overbought territory, and if spot buying fails to materialize after the squeeze concludes, prices face significant risk of a rapid correction. On the macro front, the Nasdaq rose 4.5% and the S&P 500 gained 2.3% for the week—both hitting all-time highs. Nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations (115,000 vs. forecast 65,000). U.S.-Iran negotiations collapsed, with Iran demanding sovereignty recognition and reparations—terms rejected by Trump. Oil prices swung violently between $88 and $113 per barrel during the week, yet equity markets reacted indifferently. Key events to watch this week:

U.S. Senate Banking Committee Updates Text of Digital Asset Market Structure Bill to Include Stablecoin Rewards and DeFi Developer Provisions

According to The Block, the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking has released an updated 309-page version of the Clarity Act, scheduled for review and vote later this week. The new text includes language restricting stablecoin rewards and incorporates provisions from the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, clarifying that non-custodial developers are not considered money transmitters. Coinbase—which had previously withdrawn its support due to controversy over the stablecoin rewards provision—has now reversed its position and endorsed the bill; however, banking industry groups still deem the restrictions insufficient. Meanwhile, the bill still lacks ethics-related provisions targeting digital asset-related benefits received by the President and other federal officials. Democratic lawmakers have stated that, absent such compromises, the bill is unlikely to gain their support.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the Digital Asset Market Structure Act of 2025 on May 14.

According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking will hold a markup session for H.R.3633, the “Digital Asset Markets Structure Act of 2025,” at 10:30 a.m. ET on May 14. Committee members will vote on the bill’s text and related amendments. If approved, the Banking Committee’s version will be merged with the portion overseen by the Senate Committee on Agriculture to form the final version, which will then proceed to a full Senate vote.

Coinbase Executive: CLARITY Crypto Market Structure Bill Could Be Reviewed as Early as Next Week

, Coinbase Vice President of US Policy Kara Calvert stated at the Consensus 2026 conference that the CLARITY crypto market structure bill could be reviewed by the US Senate Banking Committee as early as next week. Kara Calvert noted that the bill requires at least 60 votes to pass in the Senate, and parties are currently working to secure bipartisan support.A HarrisX survey shows that 70% of voters believe the US should enact clear cryptocurrency legislation. Additionally, Kara Calvert believes that the lack of a cohesive tax policy is a major barrier to institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, as current tax rules require crypto exchanges to record transactions as small as $1. She expressed hope that tax reform legislation could make progress in 2026 and predicted that the House of Representatives might take action on related legislation within the next month or two.

Senator Gillibrand: The cryptocurrency regulatory bill will not pass without an ethics provision.

According to The Block, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand stated clearly on Wednesday at the Consensus Miami conference that she would not support the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act unless it includes an ethics provision. She emphasized that members of Congress, the President, the Vice President, and senior executive branch officials must not profit from the industry by virtue of their insider status, bluntly declaring, “Without this provision, corruption will destroy this industry.” Previously, before the presidential inauguration, both Donald Trump and his wife launched meme coins. Their family-led DeFi and stablecoin project, World Liberty Financial, has also sparked widespread controversy. Bloomberg estimates that Trump has already earned at least $1.4 billion from cryptocurrency-related businesses.

Coinbase Launches Digital Credit Strategy CUSHY, Introduces Tokenized Share Structure

Coinbase Asset Management (CBAM) has announced the launch of its digital credit strategy, CUSHY, introducing a tokenized shareclass mechanism to bridge the gap between traditional credit markets and on-chain financial systems. The strategy focuses on three key areas: on-chain highly liquid public credit assets, structured private credit for digital-native and traditional borrowers, as well as structural yield sources combining tokenization and protocol incentives. Built on Superstate's FundOS tokenization platform, it enables on-chain representation of fund shares and 24/7 trading capabilities, while supporting operations across multiple networks including Ethereum, Solana, and Base.

White House Accelerates Promotion of Crypto Market Structure Bill, Possibly Related to Midterm Election Timing Window

Odaily News As the U.S. midterm elections approach, the White House is accelerating efforts to promote a crypto market structure bill to ease the long-standing disputes between the banking industry and the crypto sector.Reports indicate that multiple parties, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt, and related policy figures, have recently publicly called for advancing this bill. The U.S. Council of Economic Advisers has also released a report addressing the banking industry's concerns about the crypto sector.Analysts suggest that, based on the timing, the current period may be a critical window for promoting relevant legislation, but uncertainty remains regarding whether the bill can be smoothly passed. (The Hill)