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Wintermute Weekly Report: BTC Breaks $80,000, but Rally Structure Raises Concerns

Wintermute released its weekly market analysis, covering the week ending May 11. During this period, BTC broke above $80,000 for the first time since January, peaking near $83,000 and decisively crossing its 200-day moving average—a resistance level that had held for seven months. However, Wintermute noted that this rally was primarily leveraged-driven: open interest surged by $10 billion month-on-month to $58 billion, while spot trading volume hit a two-year low—classic hallmarks of a short squeeze rather than a healthy breakout. Funding rates remain skewed bearish, indicating further short-covering potential in the near term; yet covering shorts does not equate to genuine bullish consensus. Looking at medium- to long-term fundamentals, institutional buying logic remains intact: BTC ETFs posted $623 million in net inflows for the week; Morgan Stanley’s BTC ETF attracted $194 million in its first month with zero net outflows on any single day; and BTC reserves held on exchanges remain at a seven-year low. Nevertheless, Wintermute cautioned that the RSI has entered overbought territory, and if spot buying fails to materialize after the squeeze concludes, prices face significant risk of a rapid correction. On the macro front, the Nasdaq rose 4.5% and the S&P 500 gained 2.3% for the week—both hitting all-time highs. Nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations (115,000 vs. forecast 65,000). U.S.-Iran negotiations collapsed, with Iran demanding sovereignty recognition and reparations—terms rejected by Trump. Oil prices swung violently between $88 and $113 per barrel during the week, yet equity markets reacted indifferently. Key events to watch this week:

U.S. Senate Banking Committee Updates Text of Digital Asset Market Structure Bill to Include Stablecoin Rewards and DeFi Developer Provisions

According to The Block, the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking has released an updated 309-page version of the Clarity Act, scheduled for review and vote later this week. The new text includes language restricting stablecoin rewards and incorporates provisions from the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, clarifying that non-custodial developers are not considered money transmitters. Coinbase—which had previously withdrawn its support due to controversy over the stablecoin rewards provision—has now reversed its position and endorsed the bill; however, banking industry groups still deem the restrictions insufficient. Meanwhile, the bill still lacks ethics-related provisions targeting digital asset-related benefits received by the President and other federal officials. Democratic lawmakers have stated that, absent such compromises, the bill is unlikely to gain their support.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the Digital Asset Market Structure Act of 2025 on May 14.

According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking will hold a markup session for H.R.3633, the “Digital Asset Markets Structure Act of 2025,” at 10:30 a.m. ET on May 14. Committee members will vote on the bill’s text and related amendments. If approved, the Banking Committee’s version will be merged with the portion overseen by the Senate Committee on Agriculture to form the final version, which will then proceed to a full Senate vote.

Coinbase Executive: CLARITY Crypto Market Structure Bill Could Be Reviewed as Early as Next Week

, Coinbase Vice President of US Policy Kara Calvert stated at the Consensus 2026 conference that the CLARITY crypto market structure bill could be reviewed by the US Senate Banking Committee as early as next week. Kara Calvert noted that the bill requires at least 60 votes to pass in the Senate, and parties are currently working to secure bipartisan support.A HarrisX survey shows that 70% of voters believe the US should enact clear cryptocurrency legislation. Additionally, Kara Calvert believes that the lack of a cohesive tax policy is a major barrier to institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, as current tax rules require crypto exchanges to record transactions as small as $1. She expressed hope that tax reform legislation could make progress in 2026 and predicted that the House of Representatives might take action on related legislation within the next month or two.

Senator Gillibrand: The cryptocurrency regulatory bill will not pass without an ethics provision.

According to The Block, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand stated clearly on Wednesday at the Consensus Miami conference that she would not support the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act unless it includes an ethics provision. She emphasized that members of Congress, the President, the Vice President, and senior executive branch officials must not profit from the industry by virtue of their insider status, bluntly declaring, “Without this provision, corruption will destroy this industry.” Previously, before the presidential inauguration, both Donald Trump and his wife launched meme coins. Their family-led DeFi and stablecoin project, World Liberty Financial, has also sparked widespread controversy. Bloomberg estimates that Trump has already earned at least $1.4 billion from cryptocurrency-related businesses.

Coinbase Launches Digital Credit Strategy CUSHY, Introduces Tokenized Share Structure

Coinbase Asset Management (CBAM) has announced the launch of its digital credit strategy, CUSHY, introducing a tokenized shareclass mechanism to bridge the gap between traditional credit markets and on-chain financial systems. The strategy focuses on three key areas: on-chain highly liquid public credit assets, structured private credit for digital-native and traditional borrowers, as well as structural yield sources combining tokenization and protocol incentives. Built on Superstate's FundOS tokenization platform, it enables on-chain representation of fund shares and 24/7 trading capabilities, while supporting operations across multiple networks including Ethereum, Solana, and Base.

White House Accelerates Promotion of Crypto Market Structure Bill, Possibly Related to Midterm Election Timing Window

Odaily News As the U.S. midterm elections approach, the White House is accelerating efforts to promote a crypto market structure bill to ease the long-standing disputes between the banking industry and the crypto sector.Reports indicate that multiple parties, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt, and related policy figures, have recently publicly called for advancing this bill. The U.S. Council of Economic Advisers has also released a report addressing the banking industry's concerns about the crypto sector.Analysts suggest that, based on the timing, the current period may be a critical window for promoting relevant legislation, but uncertainty remains regarding whether the bill can be smoothly passed. (The Hill)

U.S. Senators to Unveil Revised Stablecoin Yield Draft This Week, Potentially Impacting Market Structure Legislation

According to Decrypt, U.S. Senator Thom Tillis stated that the Senate is expected to release the revised draft text on stablecoin yield distribution this week. Currently, banks and crypto firms are divided over whether cryptocurrency exchanges should be permitted to pay yields to stablecoin holders through reward programs—a dispute that has stalled the legislative progress of the Clarity Act. The White House Council of Economic Advisers recently released a report stating that banning stablecoin yields would have a negligible impact on small banks, boosting bank lending by only 0.02%. However, the American Bankers Association contends that this analysis underestimates the risks. Observers note that if the draft provisions are overly restrictive, users and liquidity could shift to other jurisdictions that permit such yields.