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Seer is a decentralized protocol allowing users to create markets, trade yield bearing tokens, use outcome tokens compatible with other exchanges, and offering new types of prediction markets.
Polymarket's "Arcium FDV Above $300M One Day After Launch" probability rises to 93%, up 58% in 24 hours
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket "Arcium FDV Above $300M One Day After Launch" probability has risen to 93%, up 58% in 24 hours.According to the rules, if the fully diluted valuation of Arcium's officially issued token exceeds the target value at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the day after its launch, the event will be settled as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be settled as "No."FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. Only tokens officially issued by Arcium that are publicly tradable are valid. Stablecoins, Meme coins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), and synthetic assets are excluded from the calculation. If Arcium has not issued a token by 23:59 Eastern Time on December 31, 2027, the event will be settled as "No."Previous news: Binance Futures will list the ARXUSDT perpetual contract.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, spotting changes before prices are set.
Polymarket probability of "o1 TGE market cap exceeding $400 million on day 2" rises to 89%, up 81% in 24H
Monitoring from the Odaily Seer Prophet Channel shows that the probability of "o1 TGE market cap exceeding $400 million on day 2" on Polymarket has risen to 89%, up 81% in 24 hours.This event will be settled based on the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of the o1 governance token one day after its launch. If the FDV of the o1 governance token at 16:00 Eastern Time on the day following its launch is higher than the stated value in the title, it will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No."The token must be publicly available, transferable, and tradable to be considered fully launched. FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price, with the price source being the most liquid source at the time. If o1 fails to launch a token before 23:59 Eastern Time on December 31, 2027, the event will settle as "No."Previous news: o1.exchange completes $4.2 million financing, co-led by Coinbase Ventures and AllianceDAOThe Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before pricing occurs.
Polymarket "Will Anthropic's valuation reach $1.1 trillion before June 30?" probability rises to 67%, up 30% in 24 hours
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket for "Will Anthropic's valuation reach $1.1 trillion before June 30" has risen to 67%, up 30% in 24 hours.This event will be settled based on Anthropic's private market valuation data released by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM). If Anthropic's NPM Price reaches or exceeds the specified amount between the market creation and June 30, 2026, the event will be settled as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be settled as "No".Anthropic's latest funding round was completed on May 28, achieving a post-money valuation of $965 billion after its $65 billion Series H round, just one step away from common short-term thresholds like $1 trillion. With this prediction market set to settle on June 30, traders are monitoring secondary market liquidity and whether any new primary financing or tender offer activity could push its implied valuation higher within the remaining window. Recent estimates show Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate is approaching $47 billion, continuing to support investor demand. However, no new funding announcements have emerged since late May, and IPO preparations remain longer-term.Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
Polymarket now offers a prediction range for the opening price of SpaceX on its first day of listing
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event for the opening price range of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on its first day of trading on the Nasdaq.SpaceX is scheduled to officially list on Nasdaq on June 12 (U.S. time). According to its compliance filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in early June, the official IPO price has been set at $135 per share, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion. Although the offering price has been determined, institutional oversubscription orders are reportedly exceeding $10 billion, fueling market expectations for a premium from the "first-day pop." However, given the high valuation multiple of 90 times price-to-sales and intense competition in the rocket launch market, the first-day opening premium may be relatively moderate. Under the event's settlement rules, the market will strictly settle based on the official opening price of SpaceX on its first trading day on the primary exchange. If the final opening price falls exactly at the boundary between two ranges, the higher range will be used for settlement.Odaily Seer remains focused on prediction markets. See the change before the price is set.
Polymarket launches new prediction: "Will SpaceX open higher on its second trading day?"
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "On the second trading day of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on the Nasdaq, will its opening price be greater than or equal to its first-day closing price (i.e., open higher on the second day)?"SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 prospectus on May 20 and is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on June 12. This IPO breaks tradition by adopting a fixed price of $135 per share, aiming to raise $75 billion, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Market traders are divided: positions betting on a higher opening on the second day are mainly supported by Starlink's strong revenue performance and the potential of space-based orbital data centers and computing power from the merger with xAI (restructured as SpaceXAI) in February 2026. Meanwhile, cautious short positions are primarily concerned about its high trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 90x, the significant losses from its AI business, and the amplifying effect of Musk's dual-class share structure on stock price volatility in the early stages of listing.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing the changes before the price is set.
Polymarket: "SpaceX to Raise $70B-$80B in Its IPO" probability now stands at 88%, up 20% intraday
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that the probability of "SpaceX raising $70B-$80B in its IPO" on Polymarket is now at 88%, up 20% intraday.The market settles based on the total funds raised at the time of SpaceX's IPO pricing, according to data disclosed in the SEC's final prospectus. Over-allotment option shares are not counted, nor are private secondary transactions. If the amount raised falls exactly at a boundary point, it settles at the higher bracket; if the IPO is not completed by December 31, 2026, it settles at the lowest bracket.Previous news: Elon Musk's SpaceX disclosed in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday that it plans to fix the offering price at $135 per share (consistent with the price disclosed by sources) before officially launching IPO roadshow activities. SpaceX stated it plans to issue 555.6 million shares, thereby raising $75 billion.Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before the price is set.
Polymarket new: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?"
The PPP Prediction Market tool monitors that Polymarket has listed a new event: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The current probability is reported at 33%.The settlement rules state: If the US federal government, by the end of 2026, passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other action that substantially restricts US public access to a major AI model, the market outcome will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government, the effect of which is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the action's true purpose or nominal goal; if the action effectively results in the public being unable to access the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the US—it meets the qualification requirements. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of public access that are not caused by any formal action of the US government are not eligible."Mainstream AI model" refers to the flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated, used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model becomes inaccessible to the public within the US as a result. A temporary suspension of public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.The information sources for this market are official announcements and information from the US government and the relevant AI companies. However, reliable media reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.
Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "Tesla will launch Robotaxi service in California before December 31"
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "Tesla will officially launch a Robotaxi service in California before December 31, 2026."If Tesla officially offers an autonomous taxi service to the public in California before the end of 2026 that does not require continuous human driver intervention, it will be judged as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be "No."Tesla continues to advance its autonomous driving and Robotaxi布局, but regional progress shows clear divergence. Currently, in parts of the U.S. (such as Texas), it has already conducted more aggressive unmanned mobility tests and planning, while in the California market, it remains primarily constrained by a stricter regulatory framework. The California DMV and CPUC have established a multi-stage approval process for commercial autonomous driving operations, involving multiple hurdles such as road test data, remote safety operator requirements, and commercial passenger permits.At present, Tesla's operations in California are mainly limited to supervised autonomous driving features (FSD Supervised) and have not obtained a commercial Robotaxi license for fully unmanned operations. In contrast, its "Cybercab" and Robotaxi commercialization path is widely considered by the market to be prioritized for deployment in regions with more lenient regulations, leaving California's progress with high uncertainty.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing takes place.
Polymarket’s probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in July drops to 18%, with expectations of holding rates steady dominating
Monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that on Polymarket, the probability of the "Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting" has dropped to 18.1%, while the probability of "maintaining the current interest rate" has risen to 81%. The total trading volume for this event has reached $21.74 million.The market currently widely expects the Fed to remain on hold at the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28-29. Although the US CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, and energy prices have surged due to tensions in the Middle East, keeping inflationary pressures alive, after the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at the June meeting, the market is leaning towards waiting for more economic data before deciding on the subsequent policy path. Key economic indicators to be released on July 14, including the US June CPI data, as well as employment and wage figures, will be important variables influencing the outcome of the July meeting.The Odaily Seer Prophets Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Polymarket introduces new “Number of Fed Rate Hikes in 2026” event
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a prediction event for the “Number of Fed Rate Hikes in 2026.”From the perspective of the interest rate path, the market is currently pricing in two distinctly different macro narratives. One view holds that the U.S. economy will enter a growth slowdown cycle in 2026, with the Fed maintaining a wait-and-see stance or even resuming rate cuts. The other view argues that if inflation reemerges or long-term inflation expectations become unanchored, the Fed could be forced to restart its rate hiking cycle. Therefore, the high probability attached to “3 to 4 rate hikes” essentially reflects the market’s reassessment of inflation stickiness and economic resilience over the next year, rather than a consensus on a single path.Bank of America has already shifted to a more hawkish interest rate path forecast. BofA Global Research now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December of 2026, totaling 75 basis points for the year, pushing the federal funds rate target range to 4.25%–4.50%. This represents a significant upward revision from its previous outlook of “rates unchanged for the year,” primarily based on the still-resilient U.S. labor market, the bumpy progress of disinflation, and the possibility that the Fed’s policy reaction function under new Chair Kevin Warsh could be more hawkish. In comparison, Deutsche Bank also expects the Fed to start hiking in September, but with a cumulative annual increase of 50 basis points, indicating that major Wall Street institutions are reassessing the upside risks to U.S. interest rates in 2026.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Polymarket probability drops to 41% that "Claude Fable 5 will be restored for US customers by June 26," down 16% in 24 hours
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket for "Claude Fable 5 will be restored for US customers by June 26" has dropped to 41%, down 16% in 24 hours.Due to US government export controls imposed on national security grounds, Anthropic suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9.Latest reports indicate that Anthropic executives have submitted a proposal to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, pledging closer collaboration with the White House and working to address the security concerns that led to restrictions on its powerful "Mythos" and "Fable" models.Sources familiar with the matter say that during ongoing remediation negotiations, Anthropic has committed to resolving any security issues more quickly in the future, though there is currently no exact timeline for a complete resolution. Another insider stated that Anthropic co-founder and Chief Computing Officer Tom Brown, along with Head of Public Policy Sarah Heck, are leading negotiations with Trump administration officials. Representatives from both Anthropic and the Department of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Polymarket probability of "Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers before July 1" rises to 73%, up 33% in 24H
Monitoring by Odaily Seer Prophet Channel shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 73%, up 33% in 24H.If Anthropic reopens Claude Fable 5 (or Claude Mythos, or a version confirmed to be the same model) to the US public before the specified date, this event will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". Qualifying methods of restoration include public beta or public waitlist; closed testing and private access do not count. Other models such as Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus are not included by default unless they are confirmed to be the same model as Claude Fable 5. Settlement will primarily be based on official announcements from Anthropic, supplemented by consensus reports from mainstream media.Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9. Although the restrictions were primarily aimed at foreign users, due to the difficulty of real-time user identity screening, Anthropic ultimately closed access for all users, including those in the US, and switched requests to less capable models such as Opus 4.8. Anthropic is currently engaged in high-level discussions with the White House on issues including model capabilities and potential jailbreak risks. The company has publicly stated that the ban may have stemmed from a misunderstanding and is actively pushing to restore access.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Polymarket launches new prediction: "Will SpaceX open higher on its second trading day?"
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "On the second trading day of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on the Nasdaq, will its opening price be greater than or equal to its first-day closing price (i.e., open higher on the second day)?"SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 prospectus on May 20 and is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on June 12. This IPO breaks tradition by adopting a fixed price of $135 per share, aiming to raise $75 billion, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Market traders are divided: positions betting on a higher opening on the second day are mainly supported by Starlink's strong revenue performance and the potential of space-based orbital data centers and computing power from the merger with xAI (restructured as SpaceXAI) in February 2026. Meanwhile, cautious short positions are primarily concerned about its high trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 90x, the significant losses from its AI business, and the amplifying effect of Musk's dual-class share structure on stock price volatility in the early stages of listing.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing the changes before the price is set.
Polymarket has a new prediction market: "June world is peaceful and uneventful," with the probability of nothing happening currently reported at 86%
Odaily Seer Channel monitors that Polymarket has launched a new prediction market titled "June world is peaceful and uneventful." Currently, the probability of something major happening (Something) stands at 14%, while the probability of nothing happening (Nothing) is reported at 86%.Traders believe there is an 86% likelihood that the market will see "no major progress" in June, as no significant diplomatic or policy breakthroughs appear imminent in the initial weeks.If any of the following conditions are met between the market creation and June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (US):- WTI crude oil price breaks through $150;- The U.S. confirms the existence of extraterrestrials;- The Federal Reserve decides on any policy adjustments in June;- A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine;- Iran agrees to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile.Then the market will be settled as "Something"; otherwise, it will be settled as "Nothing."Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow prediction markets, seeing the changes before prices are set.
Polymarket“Strategy Likely to Sell Bitcoin Before May 31” Probability Drops to 23%, Down 17% in 24 Hours
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket of “Strategy selling Bitcoin before May 31” has dropped to 23%, a 17% decline in 24 hours.Additionally, the probability of a sale before June 30 stands at 67%, down 6% in 24 hours; the probability before December 31 is 88%, down 3% in 24 hours.Strategy withdrew 411 BTC from Coinbase today, exactly the same amount as the deposit made the previous day, seemingly dispelling rumors of a Bitcoin sale.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before the price is set.
Polymarket probability of “CLARITY Act takes effect in 2026” rises to 67%, up 21% in 24 hours
The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that the probability of Polymarket's "CLARITY Act takes effect in 2026" has risen to 67%, up 21% in 24 hours.The event contract rules state: If the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No." The primary source of information is the Congress.gov website (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.Coinbase has indicated that key disagreements regarding stablecoin holding yield provisions have been resolved with traditional banking institutions, clearing the way for the U.S. Senate to advance the crypto market structure bill. Previously, banks had lobbied to restrict or prohibit exchanges from offering yields to stablecoin holders, primarily due to concerns over capital outflows from the deposit banking system. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad stated that the final plan, while adding some restrictions, still preserves room for users to earn rewards through crypto platforms and networks based on actual usage scenarios. This development is expected to push the CLARITY Act toward a voting process in the Senate Banking Committee.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
Polymarket's "Powell says 'Good Afternoon' at April Press Conference" probability hits 98%, trading volume exceeds $57,000
According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel, in the Polymarket prediction event regarding "What will Powell say at the April press conference," the probability of purchasing "Good Afternoon" has risen to 98.3%. As the transaction price is close to 98.3¢, the total trading volume for this event currently stands at $57,749.In related context, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is about to hold the April monetary policy press conference. As his term is set to expire in mid-next month, this press conference is viewed as a final act of his career. Based on historical precedent, Powell habitually greets the media with "good afternoon" at the start of each press conference. Although the market is currently under pressure from a high-interest-rate environment, bettors have shown extremely high consensus in predicting this customary phrasing.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, observing changes before prices are set.
Polymarket probability of "Trump announcing the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade before May 31" rises to 63%, up 7% in 24 hours
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket probability of "Trump announcing the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade before May 31" has risen to 63%, up 7% in 24 hours.U.S. President Trump posted on social media: Iran has just informed us that they are in a "state of collapse." They want us to "open the Strait of Hormuz" as soon as possible so they can resolve their leadership issues (and I believe they can!).Meanwhile, the Deputy Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps Navy stated that Iran has achieved absolute control over the Strait of Hormuz and requires passing vessels to pay transit fees. He emphasized that the territorial sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz is inviolable, and foreign vessels passing through this waterway must comply with rules set by Iran, including using the Persian language for communication. He said, "Without the Supreme Leader's order and the will of the people, Iran will never allow even a single liter of oil to flow out of the Strait." He also stated that the Iranian military is currently on high alert, with "fingers on the trigger." He claimed that U.S. hegemony in the Persian Gulf has ended and reaffirmed Iran's ability to respond to any form of naval blockade.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before the price is set.
A smart money address purchased $1.1 million on Sweden defeating Tunisia in the World Cup group stage
According to monitoring by Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel, in the Polymarket prediction event for "2026 World Cup Group F Round 1: Sweden vs. Tunisia," a smart money address (0x8cb4ca5af7d9361322340bb307a828d288c91057) that has accumulated over $1 million in profit purchased more than $1.1 million on Sweden defeating Tunisia, with an average entry price of 51.7¢ and a position of 2,139,999.7 shares.The match between Sweden and Tunisia began today at 10:00. Sweden holds an advantage in overall strength and attacking power. The first half has concluded with Sweden leading Tunisia 2:1.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, spotting changes before prices are set.
Polymarket launches "Zcash Orchard Privacy Pool Confirmed Vulnerable Exploit"
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event titled "Was Zcash's Orchard privacy pool confirmed to have been exploited?"On June 4, Zcash's core development team revealed that they had deployed an emergency network upgrade to fix a critical cryptographic vulnerability in the Orchard privacy pool. This flaw could have potentially allowed a malicious attacker to arbitrarily forge unlimited amounts of ZEC. Due to the vulnerability's characteristic that "it is impossible to cryptographically prove whether it was exploited in the past," independent support organization Shielded Labs subsequently proposed on June 5 to deploy a new privacy pool during the NU7 upgrade at the end of July. They also suggested implementing strict "Turnstile-accounting" audits for tokens exiting Orchard to investigate whether any forged tokens exist. According to the settlement rules for this prediction event, if before December 31, 2026, official sources or mainstream credible media confirm that the vulnerability was effectively exploited on the mainnet before being patched, the event will settle as YES.Odaily Seer continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
Polymarket: "Zcash will hit $100 in 2026" probability rises to 53%, up 36% in 24H
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Zcash will hit $100 in 2026" on Polymarket has risen to 53%, a 24-hour increase of 36%.Market rules: If between 17:35 on November 24, 2025, and 23:59 on December 31, 2026 (Eastern Time), the lowest price (Low) of any 1-minute candlestick of the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair reaches or falls below the price stated in the title, this market will immediately settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No." Settlement is based solely on the 1-minute candlestick data of the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair; prices from other exchanges or trading pairs will not be considered.In previous news, the privacy coin Zcash disclosed and fixed a critical security vulnerability that could have been exploited by malicious miners to transfer over 25,000 ZEC (approximately $6.5 million) from the deprecated Sprout privacy pool. Officials stated that the vulnerability had existed since July 2020 but was not actually exploited, and user funds remained safe at all times. The development team has released version v6.12.0 to complete the fix, and major mining pools have already upgraded their deployments.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
New address purchases $7,500 on Biden's son becoming 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, probability surges 3x
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that a new address on Polymarket bought $7,500 on Hunter Biden becoming the 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, with an average purchase price of 0.7¢.Possibly influenced by this, multiple wallets followed suit with purchases, driving the probability from 0.7% up to the current 2.9%.It is reported that Hunter Biden is the second son of Joe Biden, the 46th President of the United States, and his only surviving son. Related controversies have persisted throughout Biden's entire presidency, becoming a core weapon for Republicans to attack the Biden administration over "corruption" and "cronyism."Odaily Seer Channel continuously monitors prediction markets, seeing changes before prices are set.
Polymarket Launches "When Will the Next Cryptocurrency Hack Exceeding $100 Million in Losses Occur"
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "When will the next cryptocurrency hack exceeding $100 million in losses occur". This market primarily references the Rekt News leaderboard as the adjudication source, and can also use publicly recognized reliable reports as a basis. Currently, this prediction market has set four time nodes: April 30, June 30, September 30, and December 31.The event contract rules are: This is a market regarding whether any crypto project or exchange suffers an attack or hack valued at a minimum of $100 million equivalent between the market creation and 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will ultimately resolve to "No". Hacks on decentralized exchanges and lending protocols will be counted.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Polymarket new: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?"
The PPP Prediction Market tool monitors that Polymarket has listed a new event: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The current probability is reported at 33%.The settlement rules state: If the US federal government, by the end of 2026, passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other action that substantially restricts US public access to a major AI model, the market outcome will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government, the effect of which is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the action's true purpose or nominal goal; if the action effectively results in the public being unable to access the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the US—it meets the qualification requirements. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of public access that are not caused by any formal action of the US government are not eligible."Mainstream AI model" refers to the flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated, used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model becomes inaccessible to the public within the US as a result. A temporary suspension of public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.The information sources for this market are official announcements and information from the US government and the relevant AI companies. However, reliable media reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.
Polymarket's probability of "GPT-5.6 to be released to the public on July 7" rises to 64%, up 26% in 24 hours
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's probability of "GPT-5.6 to be released to the public on July 7" has risen to 64%, up 26% in 24 hours.The rules state that a model explicitly named "GPT-5.6," or a model officially recognized as the direct successor to GPT-5.5 (such as GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc.), will meet the settlement conditions. Task-specific models like GPT-Codex and Transcribe, cost-optimized versions such as Nano and Mini, and the o-series reasoning models are all included in this market. However, GPT-6 or other next-generation flagship models are not counted.Additionally, qualified models must be open to the public, including public beta or open waitlists; closed testing or private access only will not meet the requirements. The final settlement will primarily be based on OpenAI's official announcements and public information on its official website, and will be verified with mainstream media reports.On June 27, OpenAI launched the next-generation GPT-5.6 series of models, currently offering a limited preview to a select group of partners.Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
Polymarket probability of "Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers before July 1" rises to 97%, up 71% in 24 hours
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 being restored for US customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 97%, up 71% in 24 hours.Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to Claude Fable 5 just days after its release on June 9.The latest update indicates that Anthropic has received notification that the US Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5. Access rights will begin to be restored.Odaily Seer Channel continues to focus on prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
A savvy wallet bought $116,000 on the Netherlands defeating Morocco in the World Cup Round of 32.
The PPP prediction market tool monitors that in the Polymarket "2026 World Cup Round of 32 Netherlands vs. Morocco" prediction event, a smart money address (0x0c787cc2962ee6464414da592b892c3886e077f1) with total profits exceeding $229,000 purchased $116,000 on the Netherlands defeating Morocco. The average entry price was 43¢, with 274,653.6 shares bought, currently showing an unrealized loss of $1,373.The Round of 32 match between the uncrowned kings of the Netherlands and Africa Cup of Nations champions Morocco will kick off on June 30 at 9:00 AM Beijing time. Morocco's current FIFA ranking has just risen to 6th, one spot ahead of the Netherlands. In this World Cup, the Netherlands is known as the "strong offense, weak defense Tulips," while Morocco is the "upgraded Atlas Lions," making this match full of suspense.The Odaily Seer channel continues to focus on the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.
Polymarket launches “What clauses will the US-Iran diplomatic agreement contain before December 31, 2026”
The Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a prediction event titled “What clauses will the US-Iran diplomatic agreement contain before December 31, 2026.”Iran Reconstruction Funding: Whether a non-Iranian-led mechanism for Iran's reconstruction or economic development funding will be established;Dilution of Iran's Uranium: Whether Iran will be required to dilute or downgrade enriched uranium under its control;Uranium Enrichment % Cap: Whether a cap on uranium enrichment purity lasting more than one year will be set;≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap: Whether a cap on uranium enrichment at low or below purity levels lasting more than one year will be set;Enriched Uranium Surrender: Whether Iran will be required to transfer part or all of its enriched uranium to non-Iranian entities;1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium: Whether a comprehensive suspension of uranium enrichment activities lasting more than one year will be implemented.According to the settlement rules, this event will be based on the official text of the formal written diplomatic document ultimately signed or formally approved by both sides. Currently, US-Iran negotiations are undergoing intensive communication around ceasefire lines, asset unfreezing, and the rules of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The launch of this series of prediction events provides the financial market with an intuitive and detailed indicator for observing the long-term trajectory of geopolitical risks.The Odaily Seer Channel continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Polymarket introduces new “Number of Fed Rate Hikes in 2026” event
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a prediction event for the “Number of Fed Rate Hikes in 2026.”From the perspective of the interest rate path, the market is currently pricing in two distinctly different macro narratives. One view holds that the U.S. economy will enter a growth slowdown cycle in 2026, with the Fed maintaining a wait-and-see stance or even resuming rate cuts. The other view argues that if inflation reemerges or long-term inflation expectations become unanchored, the Fed could be forced to restart its rate hiking cycle. Therefore, the high probability attached to “3 to 4 rate hikes” essentially reflects the market’s reassessment of inflation stickiness and economic resilience over the next year, rather than a consensus on a single path.Bank of America has already shifted to a more hawkish interest rate path forecast. BofA Global Research now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December of 2026, totaling 75 basis points for the year, pushing the federal funds rate target range to 4.25%–4.50%. This represents a significant upward revision from its previous outlook of “rates unchanged for the year,” primarily based on the still-resilient U.S. labor market, the bumpy progress of disinflation, and the possibility that the Fed’s policy reaction function under new Chair Kevin Warsh could be more hawkish. In comparison, Deutsche Bank also expects the Fed to start hiking in September, but with a cumulative annual increase of 50 basis points, indicating that major Wall Street institutions are reassessing the upside risks to U.S. interest rates in 2026.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
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Little suspense? predict.fun puts Argentina vs Egypt win probability at 73%
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that in the predict.fun "World Cup Round of 16 Argentina vs Egypt" prediction event, Argentina's win probability is currently at 73%; the draw probability is at 21%; and Egypt's win probability is at 9%. This market only refers to the result within the first 90 minutes of regular play time (including stoppage time).At 0:00 AM Beijing time tomorrow, Argentina will face Egypt in the World Cup Round of 16. Argentina has maintained a perfect winning record in this World Cup so far. Although they had a tough match against Cape Verde in the previous round, eventually barely advancing through extra time, the team's overall strength and knockout stage experience remain clearly superior.On Egypt's side, they advanced past Australia in the previous round via a penalty shootout, achieving a breakthrough in the team's historic World Cup knockout stage performance. Facing the defending champions in this match, Egypt's hopes of causing an upset still hinge on whether they can keep the game's tempo low and rely on forward players like Salah and Marmoush to seize limited opportunities in counterattacks.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before the pricing.
Polymarket probability of Tesla and SpaceX announcing merger before end of September drops to 10%, down 30% in 24 hours
The PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?" dropping to 10% before September 30, 2026, down 30% in 24 hours; the probability of an announcement within the year before December 31, 2026, dropping to 25%, down 18% in 24 hours.Previously, SpaceX will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
A smart money address purchased $170,000 on Spain to beat Portugal in the World Cup Round of 16.
The PPP Prediction Market Tool monitors that in the Polymarket "2026 World Cup Round of 16: Spain vs. Portugal" prediction event, wallet RJW1 (address: 0x85f031d069de300055900c4055c1baeb6bde3f67), which has total profits exceeding $1.5 million, purchased $178,000 on Spain to win, with an average entry price of 51¢ and a purchase of 349,998.2 shares. This market refers to the result of the match within the first 90 minutes of regular play (including stoppage time).Additionally, this user holds $800,000 on France to win the World Cup, with an entry price of 16.4¢ and 2,465,265.0 shares purchased. The current unrealized profit stands at $400,000.The Spain vs. Portugal knockout match will take place on July 7th at 3:00 AM Beijing time. This game is a marquee matchup in the knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico, featuring a classic duel between new and veteran stars.Spain is ranked approximately 2nd in the world. In their last knockout match, they easily defeated Austria 3-0. The team is younger overall with fluid passing and control, with key players including young talents like Lamine Yamal and Oyarzabal.Portugal is ranked approximately 5th in the world, led by Cristiano Ronaldo. In their last knockout match, they came from behind to beat Croatia 2-1. The team relies on experience, counter-attacks, and individual brilliance from its stars, with midfield organizers like Bruno Fernandes also being crucial. The last significant encounter between the two teams was in the 2025 UEFA Nations League final, which Portugal won on penalties.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before the pricing.
Cristiano Ronaldo vs. Lamine Yamal: predict.fun "Spain beats Portugal" probability currently stands at 51%
According to monitoring by Odaily Seer, in the predict.fun prediction market for the "World Cup Round of 16: Portugal vs. Spain" event, the probability of Portugal winning is currently 24%; the probability of a draw is 27%; and the probability of Spain winning is 51%. This market only refers to the result of the match within regular playing time (including stoppage time).At 3:00 AM Beijing time tomorrow, Portugal will face Spain in the World Cup Round of 16. Although Portugal's squad boasts multiple attacking core players such as Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, and Rafael Leão, their previous match against Croatia was not easy. Many attacks during regular time were interrupted by offsides, and the rhythm of the game was somewhat difficult.In contrast, Spain has shown more consistent overall performance in this World Cup, with a more systematic approach to possession, pressing, and wing play. Facing a Portugal team that relies on the individual abilities of its stars to break down defenses, Spain, if they can maintain control of the midfield tempo and limit their opponent's counter-attacking space, still has a greater chance of winning the game within 90 minutes.Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Smart money collectively bets on Mexico not winning in regular time, with top holders' addresses realizing a total profit of $20.3 million
Pre-match position data from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that in the Polymarket "World Cup Round of 16: Mexico vs. England" prediction event, multiple profitable addresses have bet on Mexico failing to secure a victory during regular time.The total profits of the top 5 addresses are $360,000, $350,000, $2.3 million, $650,000, and $16.7 million, respectively.The Odaily Seer Prophet Channel keeps a close watch on prediction markets, spotting changes before prices are set.
Polymarket new: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?"
The PPP Prediction Market tool monitors that Polymarket has listed a new event: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The current probability is reported at 33%.The settlement rules state: If the US federal government, by the end of 2026, passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other action that substantially restricts US public access to a major AI model, the market outcome will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government, the effect of which is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the action's true purpose or nominal goal; if the action effectively results in the public being unable to access the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the US—it meets the qualification requirements. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of public access that are not caused by any formal action of the US government are not eligible."Mainstream AI model" refers to the flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated, used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model becomes inaccessible to the public within the US as a result. A temporary suspension of public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.The information sources for this market are official announcements and information from the US government and the relevant AI companies. However, reliable media reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.